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A Bearish Gap on the Brent Crude Oil ChartA Bearish Gap on the Brent Crude Oil Chart As the XBR/USD chart shows, Brent crude oil prices formed a gap at the start of this week: while Friday’s session closed at 75.60, Monday’s opening price dropped below 72.60. According to Reuters, this development is tied to the fact that Israel’s recent missile strike on Iran did not impact oil or nuclear facilities, reducing the immediate risk of escalation. Will Brent Crude Oil Prices Continue Falling? In terms of technical analysis for XBR/USD today: → The price is within a descending channel (shown in red) that has been active since early summer. A bullish breakout attempt on 7 October was unsuccessful (marked by a red arrow), and Brent crude has since dropped over 10%. Price consolidation between 17-22 October near the median of this red channel confirms its current relevance. → Bulls had an opportunity to show strength with a bounce (marked by a blue arrow) from Support Line 1, which forms part of an upward structure represented by blue lines. However, today’s bearish gap erased these gains. This allows traders to consider two scenarios: → Bearish Scenario: After breaking below Support, Brent could continue along the red descending channel. If the channel’s median line holds as resistance, this bearish outlook may be confirmed. → Bullish Scenario: Today’s bearish breach of the 18 October low could prove false, leading to a potential recovery back toward the structure of three blue lines. Ultimately, which scenario plays out will largely depend on volatile news related to geopolitical tensions, the U.S. presidential election, and economic data from major economies. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2
XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Crude Price Fails to Hold Above $80XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Crude Price Fails to Hold Above $80 As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Brent crude oil prices surged by over 8.5% last week — marking the largest increase in 2024, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Although oil prices continued to climb earlier this week, a pullback occurred on Tuesday, causing Brent crude to drop below the $80 level. It appears that market participants expect U.S. authorities to prevent the conflict from worsening ahead of the presidential elections, prompting them to lock in profits from previous long positions based on the technical outlook. XBR/USD Technical Analysis Today's analysis of the XBR/USD chart shows that Brent crude is moving within an upward channel (shown in blue) that began in the first half of September. The recent downturn (indicated by an arrow) comes as: → The price has entered a resistance zone, marked by the psychological $80 level and the August highs around $81.5. → The RSI indicator has risen above 85. → The price has touched the upper boundary of the channel. If tensions in the Middle East ease, we could see a pullback on the XBR/USD chart following the impressive rally. Brent crude prices may find support at the median line of the blue channel, the $77.50 level, and the purple lines marking last week’s strong price growth. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2
XBR/USD Analysis: Brent Oil Price Soars After Attack on IsraelXBR/USD Analysis: Brent Oil Price Soars After Attack on Israel Following Israel's military operation in Lebanon, Iran launched a missile strike on Israel on October 1. Financial markets reacted sharply as soon as the first reports of the attack emerged: → U.S. stock indices dropped significantly, and Bitcoin also fell, with BTC/USD nearing the psychological $60,000 mark at yesterday's low. → Gold surged to $2670, though supply forces have since curbed the panic buying, and XAU/USD has dropped back below $2650. Oil prices also spiked. Unlike other financial assets, there has been no correction on the XBR/USD chart today, despite the end of the missile strike on Israel. This highlights oil's heightened sensitivity to Middle Eastern tensions. According to today’s technical analysis of XBR/USD: → Brent oil price movements have formed an upward channel (shown in blue), beginning in early September. Following the news of the missile attack, the price has climbed into the upper half of the channel. → Interestingly, just before this surge, the price had hit a multi-week low with a false bearish breakout below the psychological $70 per barrel level. Given Israel’s vow to retaliate for Iran's strike, it’s reasonable to assume that oil demand may remain high, potentially pushing XBR/USD towards the upper boundary of the channel, surpassing the current resistance at $75. Brent oil could find support at the median line of the blue channel and the $72.50 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
Brent Crude Oil Price Drops to Yearly LowBrent Crude Oil Price Drops to Yearly Low When analysing the oil market on the XBR/USD chart on 4th September, with Brent crude trading near its yearly low, we: → noted the formation of a descending channel (marked in red); → highlighted key support (marked in yellow), which has now been broken; → suggested the likelihood of an interim upward correction, potentially rising to $74.50. Since then, Brent crude oil: → climbed to $75; → tested the yellow line from below; → then reversed downwards, reaffirming the relevance of the red descending channel (as the bullish breakout attempt failed). Bearish sentiment was fuelled by reports of a potential increase in global oil supply, particularly due to higher production in Libya and Saudi Arabia. Could Brent crude prices continue to fall? From a technical analysis perspective of the XBR/USD chart today: → The price is in the upper half of the descending channel, indicating that while bears may control the market, it may not be enough to expect a sustained downward trend. → Bulls appear to be active as the price nears the psychological level of $70. This was evident with yesterday’s halt in the price decline around $70.60. → Price dynamics are revealing clearer signs of an upward channel (shown by the purple lines). Considering the above, we cannot rule out the possibility of Brent crude making another attempt to break through the upper boundary of the red channel in the near future. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
Brent Crude Oil Price Hits Yearly LowBrent Crude Oil Price Hits Yearly Low Analyzing the oil market on the XBR/USD chart from August 26, when Brent crude was trading around $79 per barrel, we observed the following: → The price was forming a descending channel (shown in red) and approaching its upper boundary, which could act as resistance. → We identified a key support level (shown in yellow). → We suggested that the bulls would need to prove their determination when facing a block of resistance around the $80 level. Since then, Brent crude oil has: → Reversed downward, failing to hold above the $80 level, and continued to decline within the red channel. → Accelerated its decline, breaking through the key support around the $75 level. Bearish sentiment was fueled by OPEC+ plans to increase oil production, signaling a shift away from production cuts aimed at maintaining higher prices. Could Brent Crude Oil Continue to Decline? From a technical analysis perspective, the XBR/USD chart today indicates that supply forces are asserting their dominance, as the price has fallen into the lower half of the red channel, with the RSI indicator entering oversold territory. After a roughly 10% decline in Brent crude oil prices since last Monday, the prospect of an interim upward correction seems plausible. However, given the above, a significant resistance block appears to be around the $74.50 area, where: → The median line of the red channel is located. → The yellow line, which served as support for several months, is likely to act as resistance after being breached. In the worst-case scenario, Brent crude oil could drop to the lower boundary of the channel, approaching the psychological level of $70. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
Brent Crude Oil Bounces Off Key SupportBrent Crude Oil Bounces Off Key Support Analysing the oil market on the XBR/USD chart on 20 August, when Brent was trading around $77 per barrel, we: → Identified resistance around $81.60; → Noted that the price was approaching a key support level (shown by the yellow line), which has been in effect for several months; → Speculated that bears might attempt to break the August low. This attempt by the bears can be seen in the price drop to $75.55 on 22 August. However, the August low was not breached, as the yellow support line had an impact on the price—Brent crude oil reversed upwards (indicated by an arrow). As shown on the XBR/USD chart, Monday's trading opened with a bullish gap, and the price is near $79 per barrel. The price increase was supported by news of a potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East. According to Reuters: → On Sunday evening, Israel issued new evacuation orders for the central part of the Gaza Strip, forcing more families to flee; → Israel and Hezbollah exchanged heavy rocket fire; → Hezbollah's leader mentioned the possibility of further strikes on Israel. From a technical analysis perspective of the XBR/USD chart today: → The price is forming a downward channel (shown in red) and is approaching its upper boundary, which could provide resistance; → Resistance could also be expected at the psychological level of $80 per barrel. This leaves some room, albeit limited, for further growth. However, bulls will need to demonstrate their persistence when they encounter a block of resistance around the $80 level. It is possible that the RSI may be in the overbought zone at that point. Whether Brent crude oil can break through the upper boundary of the downward channel in the coming days will largely depend on the nature of the news from the Middle East. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
Brent Oil Price Drops Over 3.5% in Two DaysBrent Oil Price Drops Over 3.5% in Two Days As indicated by the XBR/USD chart, the price per barrel opened at $80.28 on Friday and closed at $77.27 on Monday. Moreover, early Tuesday trading also shows a downward trend. Bearish sentiment in the market is being influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the easing of tensions in the Middle East. According to media reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted a proposal aimed at resolving disagreements between Israel and Hamas. Additionally, ANZ Bank analysts point to a reduction in petrol consumption in China due to the increasing use of electric vehicles. Could Brent crude oil prices continue to fall further? Technical analysis of the XBR/USD chart indicates that the price is approaching a key support level (shown in yellow) that dates back to 2023. This raises concerns, especially given the bearish indicators: → The recovery from B to C has retraced approximately 50% of the A to B downward impulse; → The formation of peak C has seen false bullish breakouts of previous local highs; → The bearish candles on Friday and Monday have broad bodies and closed near their lows, indicating a lack of demand (or effective selling pressure). Thus, it is reasonable to assume that the bears might attempt to breach the critical support level, potentially leading to a new low for August. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
3
XBR, is starting to BURN "UP"! MASSIVE ascend coming!XBR accumulators is close to winning the battle. The last few days of continued net buying has pushed the price significantly higher with so much gusto and strength. Price surged a weighty 2.2% last trading day. On weekly histogram, higher lows has been recorded conveying of a long term trend shift. Pricewise, XBR is moving thinly at the current range -- closer to breaking out the descending trendline. It is now sitting at 5.0 FIB level - a major order block support where most buyers converge. Based on the recent price action and volume surge expect some significant price growth from the present price range. Spotted at 78.00 TAYOR Safeguard capital always.
FXOPEN:XBRUSDLong
by JSAL
3
Escalation in Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil ReactsEscalation Between Iran and Israel: How the Price of Brent Oil Reacts On the night of Thursday into Friday, reports emerged that Israel had attacked Iran following Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend. Let's remember that we wrote on Monday that after a 300 drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend, the price of Brent oil did not rise. Perhaps this happened because Iran's attack was then expected after the attack on its diplomatic mission, and warnings were published in the media. And the initial reaction of financial markets to the escalation tonight looked more dramatic - there was a jump in prices for protective assets: → gold rose in price to USD 2,410 and above; → the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen have risen in price; → oil and US Treasury bonds rose in price. There was also a sale of risky assets — Bitcoin, for example, fell below the USD 60k level. Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore, told Reuters: "It's pretty obvious the market is nervous. I think markets are at this stage in a flight-to-safety mode.” As the morning approached, new information began to appear in Europe: → An Iranian official told Reuters that there was no missile attack; → CNN writes that Iranian air defenses intercepted three drones, and the United States did not approve of the Israeli attack; → According to the IAEA, there was no damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities after the Israeli strike. → According to ABC News, air traffic has resumed in Iran. As a result, prices moved towards the closing levels of yesterday's trading — V-like patterns formed on the charts of the mentioned instruments. The oil market can be considered the most susceptible to the influence of nightly news, since Iran is one of the top 10 countries in oil production. Technical analysis of the Brent oil chart shows that: → the price rebounded from the level of the lower border of the ascending black channel (as we wrote yesterday); → however, supply forces intensified and returned the price closer to the lower border; → at the same time, a bearish inverted V pattern has formed on the Brent price chart today, and the median line of the channel shows signs of resistance; → it is also acceptable to expect that the former support at USD 88.50 will provide resistance when the price attempts to rise. If a further round of escalation between Iran and Israel does not occur, it is possible that the Brent price will break down the current black ascending channel. And this may be welcomed by the US administration, where presidential elections are getting closer and closer. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2
Since the Start of the Week, Brent Oil Price Has Dropped over 4%Since the Start of the Week, Brent Oil Price Has Dropped over 4% At the beginning of the week, March 15, we wrote that the price of Brent oil could form a correction from the resistance level of USD 91 per barrel. Since then, the price has decreased by more than 4% due to a number of factors: → easing concerns about the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to Reuters, and easing its conflict with Israel reduces the likelihood of supply disruptions in the Middle East. → reduction in oil consumption. JP Morgan analysts noted this week that global oil consumption in April stood at 101 million barrels per day, 200,000 barrels below forecast. → growth in oil reserves in the USA. Crude oil inventories rose 2.7 million barrels last week, the EIA reported. Technical analysis of the Brent oil chart shows that the price has declined to the lower boundary of the intermediate ascending channel (shown by black lines), as expected. This means that the market may experience a rebound from the level of $86, where the support zone is located, which is formed by: → median line of the long-term blue channel; → lower border of the intermediate black channel. We note that the development of bearish sentiment will be hampered by the so-called risk premium associated with geopolitical factors. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2
Brent Oil Price Did Not Rise Despite Iran's Attack on IsraelBrent Oil Price Did Not Rise Despite Iran's Attack on Israel As you know, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel over the weekend. This could greatly increase the price of Brent oil, given that Iran is one of the top 10 oil producing countries, and the fact of the strike could provoke further escalation in the region. However, at the beginning of the trading week, the price of Brent oil is below the levels at which they were at the end of last week. How so? It is acceptable to assume the impact that the price reflects market risks and the expectations of its participants: → As the media wrote last week, the blow was expected after Israel’s attack on the Iranian mission. → The risk of escalation is not as high as it could be. According to the Washington Post, Biden advises Netanyahu to “slow down” after the Iranian attack. Administration officials said the United States would not join in any response to Tehran's attack and suggested Israel avoid escalation. How might the situation develop further on the oil market? From the point of view of technical analysis of the price of Brent oil, as we wrote on April 4, the upper limit of the blue channel is around USD 92 per barrel of Brent. → Fears of escalation pushed the price beyond the USD 91 level, but it failed to gain a foothold there. → The price quickly returned below the USD 91 level (as shown by the arrows) — a sign of bearish activity. → Resistance to price growth is provided by both the upper border of the blue channel and the upper border of the intermediate ascending channel (shown by black lines). Please note that if we take the A→B impulse as a 100% basis, then at the price level of USD 90.80 per barrel of Brent there is a Fibonacci resistance level of 1.618. Therefore, there is reason to assume that the price of oil may form a correction to the lower black support line if there are no signs of escalation (then the price of oil may rise closer to USD 100, as CNBC writes). And for the current US authorities, it is believed that rising oil prices are unprofitable due to the upcoming elections. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2
Strifor || BRENT-14/03/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: After a very long accumulation in oil, most likely the buyer is ready for the long-awaited growth. According to the results of yesterday's trading, the price was fixed at the highs, which indicates the strength of the buyer against the backdrop of growing market sales. In this regard, we maintain a strong buy priority towards levels 86 and 87 . Both scenarios are displayed on the chart, where scenario №1 is more likely. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for boost and share your views!
TVC:UKOILLong
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Brent Oil Price Faces Key Resistance ZoneBrent Oil Price Faces Key Resistance Zone Amid Geopolitical Tensions The reasons for the rise in Brent oil prices are a drone attack on an American military base in Jordan, as well as an attack on an oil tanker in the Red Sea. These events cause concerns about the safety of oil transportation through the Red Sea and the potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Bloomberg writes that President Biden is under pressure, and the response can be decisive. The Brent crude oil chart today shows that: → The price strengthened higher than the zone of consolidation (shown by narrowing black lines), having completed its bullish break at the psychological level of 80 US dollars per barrel. → The price forms an ascending channel (shown in blue). → The price rose to the USD 83.00-85.00 zone, which previously served as a support area, but changed its role in November. → The market is overbought, judging by the readings of the RSI indicator. If the geopolitical tension increases, then the bulls can try to raise the price of Brent oil through the specified zone - it is possible that it will reach the upper border of the channel. On the other hand, if the fundamental background indicates a decrease in the degree of threats in the Middle East, the price can form a pullback from the resistance zone so that the RSI drops closer to values around 50. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
2
OPEC Forecasts an Increase in Oil Demand in 2024OPEC Forecasts an Increase in Oil Demand in 2024 Yesterday, the monthly oil market review was published: → OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, representing a 2.2% increase compared to 2023. → In 2025, OPEC predicts a demand increase of 1.85 million barrels per day, reaching 106.21 million barrels per day. It is anticipated that the growth in oil consumption in 2025 will be driven by China, the Middle East, and India. This aligns with Occidental Petroleum's perspective, where they anticipate a global oil shortage starting in 2025, as the pace of global oil demand growth is roughly four times higher than the volumes of new reserves. However, according to Citi analysts, the price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is expected to be $60 per barrel due to oversupply. As of today, the price of Brent crude oil is fluctuating in the consolidation zone around $77 per barrel. Market participants are closely monitoring the potential for an increase in the Brent oil price due to geopolitical tensions. For instance, Maersk has reported that escalation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden will lead to disruptions in global logistics. The Brent crude oil price chart indicates that → the new consolidation zone is lower than the previous one when the Brent price hovered around $81. → the price is near the crucial level of $73, which provided market support in 2023. At that time, OPEC+ countries announced a production cut to prevent further price decline. It is possible that they will take similar measures in 2024. → the rapid recovery of the price from December lows indicates the strength of demand for Brent oil below $74. Given the provided information, if the Brent price falls below $74, it may lead to its subsequent increase. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
3
⚡️Strifor || BRENT-18/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Sell-deal by oil is also relevant. Recent events in the OPEC arena did not have a positive impact on oil, and the decline continued. At the moment, the transaction has been moved to breakeven, and part of the profit has been fixed. However, on Thursday, there is a good opportunity to take a closer look at short-term short. The main trigger for this will be the continued formation of balance. The target for the fall of such a short-term deal coincides with the medium-term deal at the level of 72.36 . It should be noted that the instrument continues to trade near the minimum of last year, which is very dangerous for buyers since today, most likely, the long-term trend will be directed exactly below this threshold of last year. Thank you for like and share your views!
TVC:UKOILShort
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
⚡️Strifor || BRENT-11/01/2024Preferred direction: Neutral Comment: There is no particularly interesting situation in the medium term for oil yet, but we can say that there are still more signs of sell. After all, the instrument is in a downward global trend. The current accumulation after a small downward impulse is filled with purchases (long-orders), that is, there is a resource for moving down. As a target, we can consider the support level of 72.36, which is the minimum of the previous year. Regarding the longer term, most likely we will see updates to this low in 2023, and then an attempt to recover above this level. Thank you for like and share your views!
TVC:UKOIL
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Today OPEC+ May Announce New Oil Production CutsAccording to WSJ, the reduction could be 1 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia is in favour of cuts, but the idea causes disagreements among other members of the organisation. In anticipation of news about the OPEC+ decision, the price of oil is rising - this indicates that market participants assess the possibility of new production cuts as quite real, even if we are not talking about 1 million barrels per day. The price is approaching its maximum for November. The Brent oil price chart shows that: → the level of 80 dollars per barrel acts as support. In the twenties, the price dropped to the level more than once, but each time the bulls found the strength to recover; → rising lows A-B-C indicate the predominance of demand around the mentioned psychological level; → the price has been within the descending channel (shown in red) for more than a month, but is trying to consolidate above the median line. This is another sign of the bulls' persistence. However, it should be recognized that the current bullish sentiment could easily change if OPEC+ fails to reach a consensus on significant restrictions on oil production aimed at supporting commodity prices. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
4
Citi Analysts Expect Brent to Reach $73 in 2024Since the beginning of November, the price of Brent oil has decreased by more than 5%. This is due, among other things, to easing concerns about the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. According to the latest news: → Reuters: Iran does not plan to fight with Israel on the side of Hamas; → the UN Security Council adopted a resolution regarding the conflict. Data on the growth of oil reserves in the United States above expectations also contributed to the price decline. Commercial crude oil inventories rose 4% to 439.4 million barrels from 421.9 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. This is the highest inventory level since August. Technically, the price of Brent oil is in a downtrend (shown by red lines). Moreover: → on November 14, the Brent price tested the median line, which acted as resistance; → during this test, a bearish engulfing pattern was formed, which confirms the aggressiveness of sellers; → USD 81.81 may now serve as immediate resistance while another important level of USD 84.50 appears out of reach – at least in November. If sellers strengthen their control, it is possible that the price of Brent oil may reach the lower line of the channel and thereby get closer to the forecasts of Citi analysts. In their opinion: → the forecast Brent price is USD 73 by the second quarter of 2024; → the forecast Brent price at the end of 2024 is at USD 68 per barrel. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
3