USOIL 11th AUGUST 2022The United States posted an increase in inventories of 5.5 million barrels in the past week. The realization was higher than the expected 73,000 barrels. Gasoline products supplied also rose in the last week to 9.1 million barrels per day. The figure marks a 6% decline in demand over the last four weeks compared to the period last year.
From a fundamental point of view, the oil market continues to monitor the development of oil supply from Russia to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline, which was resumed earlier this week. The market is also awaiting the release of monthly oil data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) scheduled Thursday.
Xbrusd
📈BRENT 09/08/2022: recovery attempt❗️📈 Priority direction: Up .
📝 Description: After the downward movement since the end of July, the range of which is $16, there is a possibility of recovery and a possible local reversal. The price is at interesting support levels, and the volumes confirm the potential for a likely upward reversal. Buying from the current ones is not a good idea. Longs can be looked at at the level of $97, based on the results of fixing the price at the specified value. The target is located at the level of $98-$100. After such a development of events (as close as possible to this one), we can say that oil locally turned up.
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USOIL 27th JULY 2022Oil prices rose for the second day in a row, Tuesday (26/7). Amid growing concerns about tightening European supplies after Russia, a major energy supplier is cutting gas supplies via a main pipeline. The European Union has repeatedly accused Russia of using energy blackmail. The Kremlin said the shortage had been caused by maintenance issues and Western sanctions.
EU energy ministers on Tuesday approved a proposal for all EU countries to cut voluntary gas use by 15% from August to March.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers (OPEC+) are expected to confirm as a mere formality their decision to expand oil production by 650,000 barrels per day in July and August. The OPEC+ group of producers including Russia, began two days of meetings on Wednesday, though sources said there was little prospect of agreement to pump more oil . The net drop in crude oil inventories was flattered by SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) releases, while the gasoline stock jump is because U.S. refineries are running at over 95% capacity.
USOIL 6th JULY 2022
USOIL 14th JUNE 2022
📈BRENT 07/26/2022: continued growth❗️📈 Priority direction: Up.
📝 Description: Oil is also starting to gain momentum and gradually recover. This outcome of events is expected for us, earlier this perspective was approved in the ideas. Now the levels of $105-106 are the nearest support from which the price will potentially continue to grow. An alternative (unlikely scenario suggests) a rollback to $101 and from there to look closely to buy. Long targets are at the levels of $109 and $111.
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📈BRENT 21/07/2022: potential longs❗️📈 Priority direction: Up.
📝 Description: The downward channel for oil since mid-June indicated the priority of shorts, but at the moment, most likely, buyers will attempt to reverse the price and send it towards the latest highs. In the near future, the price will try to break through the resistance line of this channel. An alternative scenario assumes that the price will stand at current prices and then go up. Potential longs can be considered from the level of $101.
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⭐️BRENT: medium/long term view➡️ The oil market is dominated by panic about the fact that supposedly the price of raw materials expects a significant fall. The G7 countries are trying to limit the transportation of Russian oil if it is sold at a price above the limit. The head of the European Council, Charles Michel, said that the EU countries would be ready to introduce such a measure after they were convinced that it would negatively affect Russia, and not themselves. And it is very likely that this will be the case. In addition, one should not forget about India and China, which were not "specially" asked about such a proposal for Russian oil .
China and India may thwart G7 plans to impose price caps on Russian oil . The idea of the "Big Seven" may have a negative impact on global energy markets.
On July 3, the New Jersey edition, citing American expert Patrick De Haan, reported that the G7 idea to limit oil prices from Russia seems illogical. According to the expert, the G7 statement can only aggravate the situation and push oil prices up.
Fundamentally, the conclusion is that the current actions taken on the political map by the major powers are more likely to drive up commodity prices. However, it is not worth expecting an oil price of $350 as suggested by JPMorgan Chase analysts. This forecast is inadequate (according to the author). The level of $140 is considered to be an adequate forecast for oil , as the same Goldman Sachs analysts stated.
Technically, the price is in the area of strong support $97.63-$103.33 . The first target for growth is at $103 , from there buyers will attempt to return to the descending channel , after which growth to $110, $115 should be expected. Medium and long-term targets are located at the levels of $120 and $130 .
The negative point will be fixing the price below the $97.63-$103.33 area, however, in this case, given the current military-political situation, fundamental analysis can reverse the trend in one second.
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USOIL 6th JULY 2022USOIL fell below USD 100 as recession fears grew, fueling concerns that the economic slowdown would cut demand for petroleum products.
In the macro trend, oil tends to be bearish. By the end of this year if the economy is heading into a recession. In a recession scenario with rising unemployment, bankruptcy of households and firms, commodities will chase a downward cost curve as costs deflate and margins turn negative to encourage supply curbs.
However, the decline in oil prices will actually benefit manufacturing companies. They will take cheap prices for supplies, after 2 quarters of prices soaring.
USOIL D1
OIL 5th JUNE 2022The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC), agreed on Thursday to increase output by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) per month in July and August instead of the previously agreed 432,000 bpd. OPEC decision to increase production targets slightly more than planned.
As a result of that expectation, it will have little effect on tight global supply and by increasing demand as China loosens Covid restrictions.
From the existing fundamental trend, the oil price tends to be bullish, it is possible that the price will breakout the resistance area. However, market participants still think the price of oil is too high, this can make the price rebound to the resistance area, and make the price will correct down.
OIL 26th MAY 2022
USOIL 26th MAY 2022The United States government said US crude stockpiles fell by one million barrels last week, with gasoline inventories also falling slightly. The oil and gas commodity did not budge after volatile trade as fears of tight supply offset concerns over a possible recession and China's Covid-19 restrictions. World oil prices turned negative after US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said President Joe Biden had not ruled out using export restrictions to reduce soaring domestic fuel prices. This makes world oil prices tend to be sideways , this is my USOIL trading plan.
XBRUSD Possible Bullish Trend active SignalXBRUSD UK Brent Oil against USD will grow more next week possible to continue with the bullish trend and break a 110.58 Resistance easily you may follow the uptrend and get trade from 109.80 to 110.20 for the short term. and also following H4, the D1 trade chart will go higher almost TP1: 111.00, TP2: 111.60, TP3: 112.80.
This analysis only charts patterns with Support and Resistance. may next week affect any fundamental news on this pair please be aware and put SL Entry level 109.40
Warning:
Forex Trading is not a Gambling so be aware of your capital in risk this signal is only for Analysis with chart patterns. If you make trade with follow this chart it's your own risk
OIL 26th APRIL 2022The soaring back of cases of Covid-19 made oil prices corrected down. 2 popular oils are WTI and BRENT. Technically, this month there was a breakout and recently there was a retest. This will allow the price to rise again, then form a smaller triangle pattern.
for the target of buy accumulation of WTI : 94.5. BRENT : 97.5
profit target WTI : 103 -104. BRENT : 107-108.
Stoploss / sell order is recommended below the buy accumulation.
USOIL - 11th APRIL 2022
USOIL - 13th APRIL 2022
☑️BRENT: on a rollback down➡️ "Black gold" rose to 111$ ahead of the long weekend.
At the moment, oil is in the green zone, which seems to make sense amid expectations of tough conditions in the global market amid supply disruptions to Russia.
Trading was rather thin in global oil markets on Thursday amid a slowdown in related news flow and as traders wind down ahead of the long weekend in major markets in North America and Europe.
At the moment, however, there is a possibility that the instrument will fall to ~105$ early next week. The idea of a short is simple, it will be associated with a pullback after such an increase and in the near future the price will again go up, as expected.
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☑️BRENT: small update➡️ A small update to Friday's oil short idea in a new idea format. The priority of shorts remains, the fundamental reasons remain the same, but a larger perspective, of course, should most likely be expected to go long.
Technically, at the moment, the actual short. One can open short from the current levels ( ~111.50$ ). The target of the fall will be the level ~107.17 .
👇 Previous idea for BRENT 👇
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☑️BRENT: medium-term long➡️ The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, warned on Friday: "The oil market emergency could worsen."
The conflict in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions have reduced supply in the oil market to the detriment of demand, it will take time for the market to rebalance and it will take a period of high prices to attract new supply.
Most likely, the medium-term outlook will be in favor of rising prices. However, at the moment, the movement will be directed towards the support level of 98.75$ , which is supposed to be the lower limit of the current trading range for oil. In the future, we can expect growth to 108.65$ and then to 120$ .
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TS ❕ BRENT: above 85$Oil is likely to hold above 85$ in the near future. At the moment, a small downward correction suggests itself, but you should be careful, as the price is moving in a strong uptrend.
SELL scenario: A deal to sell is expected after the formation of the third top. This setup will be as confident as possible with the target of 85.15.
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☑️Brent: still downtrend correction➡️ For oil, further downward movement is expected as part of the correction, for now. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2021 to 5.65 million barrels per day. She named the slowdown in demand growth in China and India as the reasons. Although it should be noted that oil did not react much at the time of these events.
Technically, the price continues to decline within the downtrend channel. At the moment, the resistance level of 83.10$ has a SELL-potential, with the potential to fall just below 80$ (Target № 2 on the chart). Trade parameters are presented below.
🔔 Proposed deal for this tool 🔔:
🔴Entry Point - 83.04
⛔️Stop Loss - 84.87
✅Take Profit - 80.53
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