Brent: shorts activated And so, the short-term SELL confirms for oil. The price area 81.70 - 83.40 serves as a resistance for further growth. Now the instrument is at the resistance line of the descending channel, which at the beginning of the next week may lead to active sales.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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Xbrusd
☑️Brent: local short➡️ Brent Crude is trading at $80.70 per barrel and is moving within the fall and the downtrend channel. The presence of a bearish trend can be traced for the instrument, which can develop into a correction. As part of the forecast for the Oil rate for November 5, 2021, the growth of the asset value is expected to develop and the test level of $83.10 . Where can we expect an attempt to rebound and continue the fall in the value of Oil. The target of reducing Oil prices is the area near the level of $80.45 per barrel.
The problem of Oil shortages remains unresolved. The current high Oil demand remains a short-term support factor and the nature of the deficit is increasingly structural, and this will require much higher long-term Oil prices. Collectively, the bullish sentiment for Oil remains in place. Locally, a correction for Oil is expected, but globally, the instrument is still bullish.
🔔 Proposed deal for this tool 🔔:
🔴Entry Point - 83.06
⛔️Stop Loss - 84.89
✅Take Profit - 80.31
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Brent: correction is visibleAnd so, although oil is on the rise, however, weakening of buyers are visible. We are not talking about a trend change, but a correction is very likely to happen. The target of such a correction could be 83.40 and even 81.70. This price area would support the instrument.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
Thanks for the likes and comments.
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WTI: high prices would remainOn Tuesday, prices for WTI crude oil showed indecision. These dynamics indicate consolidation in the short term. However, a corrective decline should not be ruled out, as the asset is close to overbought levels. However, buyers' immediate target is the $ 82.00 mark.
On Monday, JP Morgan analysts said that the average price of Brent crude will be $ 70- $ 80 in the 4th quarter of 2021 amid the ongoing recovery in global consumption. Continued supply chain disruptions represent an upward risk factor for this projection. Nevertheless, the OPEC + alliance has sufficient capacity to increase production, and it can do so if prices continue to rise.
Oil prices are likely to remain high in the medium term.
Proposed deal for this tool:
Entry Point - 80.69
Stop Loss - 79.24
Take Profit - 82.14
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Brent: new recordsAnd so, oil continues to set new records against the background of continuing demand. Many respected financial institutions predict price increases in the future. At least they would remain at current levels.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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Brent: forecast for Oct 11 - Oct 15Prospects for oil prices, to a greater extent, would add up to their growth or at least consolidation in the range of ~ $ 78–82. Deficit reduction is progressing more slowly than planned. The oil market is still in deficit, but not as before in view of the beginning of a small, but still consistent, softening of quotas by OPEC +. The decision by OPEC and its allies (OPEC +) on Monday to maintain the planned increase in oil production was prompted by fears that demand and prices could weaken.
Their fears are not without reason. The current oil and gas trend indicates a likely decline in the near term. The almost vertical takeoff of gas and coal quotations, and more recently oil prices, can hardly be considered sustainable. Such market movements are more likely to end in decline than in further growth.
With such sharp price surges as now, investors and traders should be prepared for verbal interventions by the buying and exporting countries. One of these statements was made by Iraqi oil minister (about a fair price for oil in the range of $ 75-80). In addition, it is very likely that the United States, China and India will try to stabilize the situation in their markets.
Also, we must not forget about the daily pressure on oil from alternative energy. On the long-term horizon, the fall in demand looms more and more due to the energy transition. This is a strong incentive to ramp up oil and gas production now in order to invest revenues in the future.
In general, prices are expected to roll back to the level of ~ $ 78.90 for the coming week.
USDRUB: time for upward correctionAnd so, quite well recently, the Ruble has won back positions against the US dollar. It's high time for upward correction. The instrument is expected to move up to the level of 72.68. Some resistance is located at 72.265. Additional pressure on the Ruble would come from the expected downtrend movement in oil in the short term.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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Brent: countertrend dealThe decision by OPEC and OPEC + on Monday to keep the plan for a gradual increase in oil production was prompted by fears that demand and prices could weaken.
The group also considered the possibility of increasing production by 800,000 barrels per day, which is almost 1% of global production, ahead of Monday's meeting.
Now the OPEC countries are more cautious, because any hasty decision could lead to a sharp drop in oil prices.
In the medium term, the instrument will be on the rise.
Today is rich in news. Taking into account this fact, as well as the strong upward movement in oil, no one canceled short-term sales for the instrument.
Proposed deal for this tool:
Entry Point - 82.85
Stop Loss - 83.80
Take Profit - 82.08
USDCAD: in the trade balanceAnd so, the Canadian is also in anticipation of today's events during the American session. It is expected that the pair may sink at the moment, but it is unlikely to fall below 1.24911 (even more likely it would not reach and go up). The combination of technical and fundamental facts suggests that the instrument would move up in the medium term within the trade balance 1.24911 - 1.28962.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
Thanks for the likes and comments.
Brent: dollar would force correctionThe oil is supported by reports that Saudi Arabia lowered its November export oil prices for Asia, the Mediterranean countries, Europe and the United States.
Also, a positive factor for the oil market in recent days was the decision of the OPEC + states to maintain the previously adopted plan to increase oil production, despite the growth in demand amid a sharp rise in the cost of natural gas.
In accordance with this plan, OPEC + countries will increase oil production in November by 400 thousand barrels per day.
Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated an increase in US oil inventories by 951 thousand barrels for the week ended October 1, while analysts predicted an average rise of 4.127 million barrels.
Further oil situation will directly depend on the dynamics of the US dollar. The oil itself, most likely, needs a correction, and if the dollar is not weak, this is possible.
Proposed deal for this tool:
Entry Point - 82.59 (SELL-Limit)
Stop Loss - 83.45
Take Profit - 81.73
Brent: forecast for Sept 27 - Oct 1There was no negative news for the oil market following the September Fed meeting. Interest rates and asset purchases remained unchanged, although the rhetoric continued to escalate. In particular, the Fed announced its readiness to make a decision to start cutting the asset purchase program at the next meeting. Additionally, an increase in expectations for the level of the base rate in 2022-2023 was announced.
Consequently, buying priority remains, but at the moment it is risky to get into a long position. The price would be corrected. From the very beginning of the week, the instrument may start its downtrend movement. It will be much more conservative to wait for oil to approach the resistance line of the ascending channel and try to sell around the level of ~ 78.
Buying mood for gas and coal, as well as the expected deficit in the oil market by the end of the month, would continue to support oil prices. The trading instrument, taking into account the expected correction, would remain above $ 75 per barrel.
Brent (XBR/USD): local correction is expectedTrade: Short (after the breakout)
Target 1: $69.5
Brent price broke a global declining trend in 2021.
We expect Brent's price to reach at least 80$ in the middle term, but before that, it needs to cool down a little.
The price is moving in the declining channel and at the moment we expect it to reach the middle line of the channel at the $69-$70 range, as COVID-19 cases growth in China scares traders. A short trade might be opened only after a $73.2 level breakout.
Brent: scenario for sellAnd so, oil is definitely on a strong rise and opening sales can be very, very risky business. But the situation that has developed suggests that the oil can adjust and then may be further go up again. For this scenario, the price needs to dive below the 73.55 level.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
Thanks for the likes and comments.
Still bullishUKOIL Brent (Gulf oil) is still to rise.
Monthly ATR is is 107 pips. And this month we did only 39 percent so far.
I believe we will end the year at 54.33.
But there will be BIG reaction at yearly low 52.28 from where price released in March. I would exit there.
Close with daily bearish candle below 8 daily ema on daily chart will be a signal of trend change.
Crude oil rise is one of the factors why euro, aud, nzd, cnh had been going up too.
FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
Bullish exhaustionPrice formed a sort of an apex - liquidity block and very soon there will be breakdown or breakout from that box. From very weak bullish rise we can see that bids are exhausted and price should seek liquidity lower running down to the next major liquidity base to fill that low steam bid rise.
Top Absolute Correlation 1 Day
1 XTIUSD - XBRUSD 98.6%
2 XTIUSD - GBPNZD 74.6%
3 XTIUSD - GBPCAD 68.2%
4 XTIUSD - GBPAUD 67.9%
5 XTIUSD - GBPMXN 67.2%
6 XTIUSD - GBPSGD 66.9%
7 XTIUSD - GBPUSD 64.1%
8 XTIUSD - EURGBP -63.4%
9 XTIUSD - EURCZK -62.5%
10 XTIUSD - GBPJPY 61.0%