BTCUSD ~ Next target 73k and then ????So as we have said since March (first post march 25th on BTC, and 4 more since then) - we have been waiting for and expecting a big correction back to a few key critical things:
1) BTC has been way over-extended (all the cryptos have), and desperately needs a retouch of supports.
2) BTC desperately needs to retouch the 10W and preferably also 20W MA's. CHECK-DONE
3) BTC needs to retouch previous FIB support level and re-accumulate, shake out weak hands. CHECK-DONE
All goals we have been waiting for since March have now been accomplished. Feel free to see my posts since March - press play - and watch how perfectly we landed on almost exact dollar levels of what we plotted earlier.
SO - WHAT NOW?
What we expect to happen now is a re-accumulation period between 2 and 10 days roughly (this is a wide variable, and in fact, the longer we accumulate, the better - so I would even prefer 14 to 19 days as our previous dip accumulation periods were 11 and 19 days respectively).
After that is done, we will be heading back up to break the FIB extension level we topped at, retest that level as support (S/R flip confirmation needed at that point), after which we'll be heading to the next FIB extension level which is the 423.6% mark and the last extension level typically used --- yes boys and girls we are just about to actually break the LAST standard TA extension level at 73k! This is a HUGE moment because after we break that and S/R flip it - we are literally in PRICE DISCOVERY MODE for BTC until the end of the bull market.
ANYBODY telling you they know where its going after that, DOESNT ACTUALLY KNOW - and we are all just using different metrics to try and guess it.
What I *AM* 99% certain of (because 100% is ofc impossible) - is that we will break it.
What happens after that, nobody knows.
My PERSONAL BULL CYCLE PLAN:
I highly do suspect that we will break $73k relatively soon (within next ~20 days), and that means we still have a long time left in this bull run, so theres no reason for that to be the bull run top.
I will not be taking profits at 73k, because right now we look so bullish with so much "Big Money" momentum that I think we could easily just blow past it into price discovery and reach for $100k area.
I have no expectations that $73k will be our bull run top. My personal take-profit levels are around $100k, $120k, and $140k --- I believe we will be hitting $150k before end of year, as my conservative / take-profit plan.
Being a business owner and connected to other big money CEOs and investors - the buzz is so huge right now however that I would not be surprised if we hit $250k or $350k which are numbers I am constantly hearing from major CEOs, partners at multi-$bn firms, etc....
I only take-profit off 20% of my cryptos anyway (MAXIMUM 30%, if we do end up going that high, I'd sell another 10%) - so I dont really care if we go to $1m....I am still going to be HODLing 70-80% of all my cryptos.
In the run up to the cycle, I have converted my personal financial life all into crypto - I hold about 1% in fiat for utility and 99% in crypto for all my liquid assets at this time, and this is a permanent shift for me, for the rest of my life.
So there is simply no reason to be selling the large majority of crypto. I am not a trader. I am an investor and have shifted into crypto being my 1) store of value, 2) currency, and 3) asset investment class.
Eventually I will even get rid of the 1% fiat accounts I hold at traditional banks, as I see no reason to keep them when eventually crypto and crypto-credit-cards are just as mainstream as dollar bills.
We're not quite there yet, but we will be soon!
My MOST CONSERVATIVE estimate:
If - for some reason - we sit where we are between 45k-65k and accumulate for 2-3 months, and then take another month to break the 73k 423.6% extension, putting us into something like september/october - that could, at worst, be the top of the bull market cycle this time.
This is such a conservative estimate that I am not even going to be taking profits at this point, UNLESS we have indeed NOT broken the previous ATH (~64k) a whole 30-days from now.
Let me repeat that for clarity: IF we still have not broken previous ATH (~64k) 30 days from now (~June 15th) then I will consider this super conservative estimate and re-evaluate where I put my take profits.
Not planning on doing another BTCUSD post until we see one of the above triggers happen.....so however long that takes.....5 days....30 days....see you guys at 73k soon!
Take care and BUY THE DIP!
Xbt
Bitcoin Price Action Outlook 13 May 2021Bitcoin price surged a little bit from 60k , now heading towards sweet buy spot and we are able to get good prices for long entries. More details covered on the chart.
Please make sure you know how to manage risk and position size.
On the chart main focus on Daily Moving Averages (DMA) with length 100 and 200. This DMAs making good support zone for trend movements and pretty solid for buying during the trends.
Current price fluctuated below DMA100 and above DMA200, which on my opinion is pretty good spot for buying.
BR,
Artem Shevelev
Bitcoin | Once Again Bulls Looking Strong..!!#BTC (Update)
From last 3 Months, Bitcoin Has been Moving in 44k - 62k Range.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) Printing Strong Bullish Divergence.
Lower Bollinger Band tested Again. (Double Bottom)
At the Moment, Bulls looking Strong & Expecting Bullish Wave towards 60k 📈
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Bitcoin Ready for next move Up or Down..?#BTCUSDT TA update:-
$BITCOIN currently trading above $50000
And as I drawn my chart this is retest level at $47000 has been done.
Now I am expecting bounce back from here.
Entry:- $47000-$50000 ( spot )
Targets:- $55500/$59393/$65000
Stop Loss:- below $45000 and I will update here.
Support:- $47000/$41000
Resistance:- $55500/$59393/$65000
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Bitcoin Below Daily Red LineAs described by @RafaelZioni, the Red Line is an indicator that is a:
"simple script that give easy indication on the state of your asset
above the red line is bullish
below is bearish
the line is based on modify level of regular pivot S3 without the MTF function"
Bitcoin is now below the Red Line on the daily chart and falling into bearish territory.
Could this be the start of bear market? Targets would be horizontal portions of past Red Line areas.
If the Fed Raises Interest Rates, Where Will Bitcoin Go?
A 15-fold increase in 57 weeks isn't the biggest rally in bitcoin history, but it's a standout compared to the surrounding markets. US stocks tumbled and the US dollar rebounded yesterday after the release of higher than expected CPI figures, intensifying expectations for US interest rate hikes. But the digital currency market seems to be stable, but the Federal Reserve really raised interest rates, digital currency will be so calm?
When Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin, which is 14 years old, he hoped it would become an anti-inflation tool. But for the first 10 years, Bitcoin was more of a token for dark web transactions, which was certainly not acceptable to the government.
As Bitcoin's influence grew, in 2017 the Chicago Board of Trade launched a bitcoin futures contract, which opened the door to bitcoin trading as a commodity. But that has not given him much relevance to the dollar.
Until the COVID-19 outbreak in 2019, the United States responded to the economic collapse by printing a lot of money. The flood of dollars was like a hungry Wolf, looking for prey everywhere. At the same time, Wall Street tycoons have found a cheap digital currency (Bitcoin dropped to $4,000 in early 2020, with a total market capitalization of less than $100 billion). Bitcoin is much easier to manipulate than gold, and most importantly, it is unregulated and completely anonymous.
Thus, Wall Street's script for the Bitcoin myth has officially arrived. From Grayscale and MicroStrategy to Bakkt, a spot exchange was launched. From "insiders" constantly touting Bitcoin as the best alternative to the dollar, to the advent of digital gold; Institutions from Fidelity to Morgan Stanley to Citigroup rushed into the Canadian ETF listing; From Coinbase landing on Nasdaq to Musk hyping Doge. Bitcoin has soared from $4,000 at the beginning of 2020 to an all-time high of $60,000.
We've seen a complete crushing of commodities over the same period, with gold taking the lead. If inflation-fighting logic has been Bitcoin's talisman, does a rise in the dollar mean the currency is set to peak? Does the prediction that bitcoin should hit $100,000 or even $400,000 by the end of the year fail if the so-called trajectory of bitcoin follows?
This is a paradox for Bitcoin.
First of all, the current investment subject, from retail investors in Asia, is converted to a Wall Street tycoons, so their money, should be on the water come from the federal reserve this time, if the dollar interest rates, this part of the money back, whether to mean that they are not out of bullets, then the currency by faith to shore up their selling?
Second, as the preferred trading tool of the dark web, digital currency has never ceased to be controversial since its birth. Recently, the US pipeline company was extorted. In this case, digital currency has been pushed into the storm again.
Third, in the face of the rise of tens of times, hundreds of times the digital currency bulls firm faith, or cash out? If the dominoes fall, who can save the day? If the U.S. economy does fail, can digital currencies dodge the bullet?
If bitcoin is the inflation-fighting digital gold, then higher dollar rates mean bitcoin should fall. If it doesn't fall, it means there's no correlation between bitcoin and the dollar, and the institutional logic has been falsified, and the market could return to the days of retail investors.
Bitcoin long-term outlook -> 20-22k (?) -> 500k in Q3 2023This rally has been very confusing to say the least, but in retrospect everything makes sense. Cycle lengthening is back on the table. This is not a cycle top and a proper bull run will come later.
Next time to load up is by the end of this year 2021.
Bitcoin ABC Correction Within the ABCSo far the plan i drew 3/4 weeks ago, played out pretty nicely, therefore at the moment it is still my game plan and i have no reason yet to change it. What was pretty funny, think i posted it a day before the 64/65k high, was the following: I was talking to a good friend of mine (who doesn't trade crypto), that works at small factory with 200 employees, he was telling me, the cleaning told me today that she was buying crypto. Immediately Red Alert inside my head and i wrote about it in my channel. Also because it coincideded perfectly with my short term bearish view for Bitcoin.
The days after it didn't matter where i went, everyone's wifes and kids were even trading crypto :).
Now of course this is not a golden rule and 100% sure thing that it's the end of all the fun we had past half year. But it is most definitely a reason to be on high alert and to think about where you stand with your portfolio. Another, not at all surprising thing is the following. I have some people from my groups who i talk with regularly with significant crypto portfolios. As everyone who was in at least half year ago, made some crazy profits. I was asking them the same questions:
1) Do you remember what you told me in half way 2018? "Yes i do, if i would get a second chance to sell at the ATH prices of 2018, i will most definitely sell!!"
2) Do you remember what you asked me to do for you back in 2018? " Yes i do, that if we would ever reach those 2018 ATH prices again, to help me be smarter this time.
All conversations with everyone took many hours, but too much to discuss. One more question i would ask them, and they all gave the same answer. Even some friends/people i know here in my home town who made 6/7 figure profits, would give the same answer to this question as my vips:
What do you think about selling a good % of your portfolio, to secure some profits?: (With some i was doing a video call, they were all making funny faces LOL, including my friends). " Uuhhmmmm, aaaahhhh, Aaarrrggggg, I don't know, this time, i really do think it's just the beginning". With some i would almost fall of my chair from laughing so hard :).
Eventually, my conclusion was, which i would literally tell them, is that they are junkies, junkies to the extreme profits they were making in such a short time frame. It's no surprise at all, because this is what markets do to the more inexperienced people, they give you the feeling that the only way is up. They give you that feeling, that only an idiot would sell here. Mostly bacause its been buy the dip for a long time now and because the gaines are so extreme. Just like with the basic pyramid scheme. I heard stories of maybe 20/40 people back in 2018, about Bitconnect. Not one person, took out even $1 dollar, everyone was putting in all they were earning back in, to compound the profits and earn even more. Even the ones who started with that pyramid almost a year before it collapsed. The bull trend of past half year or so, is somewhat similar, because everyone who was in and Hodled, made at least 5X and some even did like 50x.
Conclusion of this, each and everyone of them, surpassed their goal they had a year or 2 ago. Some even with 200/1000% more with what they were dreaming about. But still it's not enough!!! So trust me when i say, it doesn't matter if your balance went up from $50 to $10.000, or from $100.000 to 50 Million, everyone says and does the same thing. It's simply never enough.
What nobody understand is, if things go wrong and we turn to a bear market again, they will never sell if they drop under a certain level. If you ask them now, they will all say, i will sell everything if it drops 20/30% (or whatever number). But the day it happens, not even one will pull the trigger to sell. Then they see it bounce, and think "yes, i made a good decision, it was just a shake out". But then we get a lower high and drop even lower. Then it drops below their critical level, that they get depressed (even though they are up maybe 1000% (or much more) from a year ago). With that reaching the mindset of thinking, F it, i will sit and wait and Hodl. Think everyone who was in this market in 2017/18 knows exactly what i am talking about.
I can't predict the future and neither can you, nobody. Except maybe the people who have the money or tweets to move markets. But why risk all you have if there is an easy solution to this all. Which is, sell a part of your portfolio and risk with the rest. At least then you have secured something. To be clear, i am not saying bear market has started, it could, but there is nothing real yet to say that. Just don't let others mess up the plan you possibly had months ago, especially not by friends who have no experience. Also, don't get influenced by all the news and things your read from others. Because in 2018, during the rallies, the market would always be flooded with bullish news. Stick to your own plan and try not to be too greedy.
Selling a % and see market go 10x, you earn less than you could have and maybe feel bad about it for a while, but eventually you will acknowledge its a luxury problem, you could even laugh about that. Never taking profit, having reached levels you didn't even dream about a year ago. Then a year later seeing your portfolio having dropped 90%, could be devastating for the rest of your life and decision making for everything you will do from then forward. Possibly making the losses even bigger than only finacially!!
Okay, now to the business at hand. In the chart you can see the big ABC correction, which is still a likely scenario for the coming month or 2. The bounce we had from the 47k has been pretty strong so far, but today it has been slowing down a bit. At some point, we should get a drop to make a higher low (yellow line). Whether it starts now or we go up some more, but most of the time it happens. Very rarely see it go up in a straight line after such a big drop we has past week. There is a chance that the correction is already over, meaning the ABC is already done. So which one will it be? For that i try to look at 2 realistic outcomes, which are the 2 blue lines in the middle, number 1 and 2. So these 2 represent possible movement of the yellow ABC.
If we would see something like number 1, then chances are the big correction is already done and we might continue to rally to make a new ATH coming week or two. If we see something like number 2, then my game plan will be the bigger ABC correction.
Short term we have a big resistance zone up to 57K. 60K should also give a lot of resistance. Think a break of 62Kish, would mean that the ABC correction is probably already finished (real confirmation is break the 65K high).
On the downside 52/53K is a good support zone, think 50K, maybe 49K should be the real max (in case we see a drop coming days). About alts, its much more difficult to say, because even in 2018, after the ATH was set, we would always see some individual alts still pump like crazy, despite being at the start of a bear market.
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Previous analysis:
Bitcoin Current update bullish or Bearish..?#BTCUSDT TA Update:-
$BTC currently trading at $56900
And also bounced back from strong support at $55500
I also Told you about this supin my last update.
Now..?
Now Bitcoin is still bullish and I am expecting $59500 and $65000 first resistance.
Also keep an eye on my support level.
New support level:-
Support:- $53000/$47000
Resistance:- $59500/$62292/$64773/$74283
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Bitcoin Ready for New ATH and our TP2 achieved #BTCUSDT TA Update:
$Bitcoin Currently trading at $59250
And our 2nd Resistance hit.
Now..?
According to TA $59500 is also resistance level.
If this breakout then ready for $65000
This is now big resistance.
Entry:- $54000 ✅
TP1:- $55500 ✅
TP2:- $59398 ✅
Still I am expecting big move from here.
But don’t forget your stop loss.
Our Stop loss is now our entry.
Support:- $52000/$55500
Resistance:-
$59398/$62293/$64773/$75k
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Bitcoin | Ascending Triangle Formation ..!!#BTC (Update)
In 4h timeframe, Bitcoin is Forming Ascending Triangle Pattern...!!
If 59k Resistance got Cleared with Strong Bullish Volume, Expecting +12-15% Bullish Wave (Might Test the 67k)
Keep in mind that CME gap (57120-62115) Still Opened..!!
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BTC decision time soonBTC has been following along it's current trading channel for a while. However it's running out of time for a decision.
Each time BTC tests the upward trending green line, it weakens. I've noticed over the years that the fourth or later attempt is usually when resistance/support fails. However, Bitcoin has already hit support a fourth time and survived (marked by the yellow support arrows on the chart).
The difference is, BTC is running out of time to decide. If it breaks the top green line, BTC will go to new all time highs. If falls below the upward trending green line it will drop down towards previous support levels.
Watch for it to break either green line and trade accordingly.
Bitcoin | Bulls Continuously trying to Reclaim the 58k..!!#BTC (Update)
Bitcoin Bulls Continuously trying to Reclaim the 58k Area (Green Line), Daily Candle close above would be ace 🏄🏼♂️
If Daily Candle Closed Above the 58k Resistance, Next Stop would be 67k (Higher High).
In Worst Case, If Bulls Failed to Clear the Resistance, Bitcoin Might Retest the 50k Support Area 📉
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Bitcoin Weekly Timeframe Price Overview 05 May 2021Bitcoin long term trend is highly debatable topic. On the chart I've found quite interesting relation on RSI oscillator - price making big rebound after reaching RSI zone 60-50-47. During whole 2016-2018 bull run price 4-times rebounded upside with RSI in mentioned zone.
At the momement RSI value approaching 60, which means we about to see big rebound upside.
Stay positive and stay out of huge risks.
Bitcoin First Target hit and still rooms for $75000 ..?#BTCUSDT TA Update:
$Bitcoin Currently trading at $55400
And our 1st Resistance hit.
Now..?
According to TA we want to breakout $55000-$56000 resistance.
This is now big resistance.
Entry:- $54000 ✅
TP1:- $55500 ✅
Still I am expecting big move from here.
But don’t forget your stop loss.
Our Stop loss is below $52000
Support:- $52000
Resistance:- $55500/$59398/$62293/$64773/$75k
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Bitcoin Ready for $75000 and is it Good entry for Buy Bitcoin..?#BTCUSDT TA Update:-
$Bitcoin Currently trading at $54000 level.
And this is retesting level.
Now..?
As per TA we can see this is perfect retest level.
So I am buying here some BTC from USDT.
Entry:- $53000-$54000
Targets:- $55500/$59398/$62293/$64773/$75k
Stop Loss:- if any big time frame candle close below $52000
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BTCUSD ~ Correction Continuation Incoming (high probability)After ETH hit a new ATH and BTC didnt even budge, I think what we are looking at is a setup for a major market correction, after which we will see new ATH's across the board in a massive and unprecedented pumps that will take the overall crypto markets to new levels.
We have been expecting BTC to retouch its weekly support MA's for a long time, and it hasnt. Meanwhile those MA's are catching up, but they are still in the 40k's zone.
A healthy correction down to 10W and possibly even 20W MA would setup the entire crypto markets for a very healthy extended bullrun; especially given ETH and ERC-20 tokens recent pump to new ATHs and recovery levels.
Get your long pants ready in the coming days/weeks!
Bitcoin | 11th Consecutive Weekly Candle Closed Below 60k..!!#BTC (Update)
11th Consecutive Weekly Candle closed Below the 60k Key Resistance.. (Bulls Need Strength)
Weekly EMA21 (46k) Acting as Strong Support Since 27th April 2020.
Volume has been Continuously Descending Since 4th January 2021.
RSI Printing Bearish exaggerated divergence 📉
If Weekly Candle Closed Below the EMA21 (46k), Bitcoin Might Retest the 30k Support Area.
In Bullish Case, If Weekly Candle Closed/Open Above 60k Resistance, then Next Sop would be 80k (New ATH)
Daily Timeframe Analysis..
From last 5 Months, Bitcoin has been Moving in Ascending Channel (Forming Higher Higher & Higher Lows)
If 66k Resistance got Cleared, expecting Another Higher High & According to Ascending Channel Bitcoin might Test the 110k 📈
If Channel Broken Downside (Bulls lost the 50k Support Area ), Bitcoin might test the 30k Support Area 📉
If Bitcoin Remains inside the 50-60k Range for Next 2-3 Week then We Can See Bullish Rally in Altcoins. (Mini #Altseason)
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Bitcoin Cash/Bitcoin (BCH/BTC) Cup and handle forming?BCH/BTC forming a cup and handle. I'm expecting a bit more consolidation around these levels and then some green candles on increasing volumes to push to 0.0184. We might pause around there, but I'm looking for continuation to the previous high around 0.0196.
TP1: 0.0184
TP2: 0.0196
- Sultan of Chart