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BITCOIN 2023Today my friend called me, not long ago, after a couple of minutes of conversation, he asked me: "what do I think about the price of observation and should I buy it now" My answer: 1. Price dropped 78% from high 2. the average statistical cycle of the fall is passed 3. We are at or near the bottom whether you buy 16k or 12k, in the long run, won't matter 4. I reminded him that there are bulls and bears in the market, and there are also pigs who are very greedy and want to buy at the very bottom and sell at the very highs, and as a result, they are simply killed, so you don’t need to be a pig 5.Definitely, until the issue with the digital currency group is over, there will be no bull market This is very simple advice I can give to everyone who reads this post. P.S The chart is a Wyckoff logic chart superimposed on the Bitcoin log chart I'm back in 2023, write questions in the comments that I can answer in the following posts
Long
by EXCAVO
63
Bitcoin update 16.03.2023Hi, the plan is still the same goals 28-32.5 But there's a little problem here, you see banks going bankrupt, I called it BankFalls, and on that sentiment inexperienced people are now trying to move into a deflationary instrument, bitcoin. We are in the last already close to the last stage of this mini cycle ( logistic curve) when people will scream that bitcoin is the only salvation in anticipation of a potential world crisis. In fact it is not. it will be very difficult to find an instrument that will not fall if a financial crisis happens, everything will fall, but something will recover faster Most likely when most people panic they will go into the 25-32 range. According to propagation theory, this will be the final stage of this mini-bull-run or sub-cycle. I would like us to reach the middle channel line and then go to 28-32.5 - then stay there for 2-3 weeks and then go down Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
15
Let the bullets fly a little longer!From mid-May, the market entered a volatile cycle, and from the 4-hour cycle, it showed a phenomenon of frequent changes of hands between long and short. In just a dozen trading days, the bulls and bears exchanged control at least 8 times, and most of the volatility range was only $1,000. At present, a convergent trend has been formed, it should be said that the market is about to choose the direction, so now, we must be more patient and more cautious to deal with. Let the bullets fly a little longer! In addition, we can see a head and shoulders pattern from the daily chart, of course, this pattern is somewhat complicated, we can think of it as a composite head, and the right shoulder should be being built at the moment. As for whether this head and shoulders can be formed, the key is to see whether the upward will break through the left shoulder high, that is, $29380, if it cannot break through this high, but to the fall below the previous neckline - $25270, then the head and shoulders will be established. At present, the finishing of this right shoulder, the main pressure is on the MA50, this moving average is around $28340, is turning down, for the bulls, it is certainly not good news. And the support below, the first thing to look at is $25270. If it falls below this trend line, the rally may be aborted. Therefore, the current situation is very chaotic, it should be said that there are opportunities for long and short, but no one has an absolute advantage. Therefore, speculators should not stand in line too early, and at the moment of breakthrough, making the right choice is the strategy we should have.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by peter-l
3
The current operation of Bitcoin should be simplified and less a Bitcoin broke through in March and created a rebound high of 31,000 after entering a shock adjustment stage. Although the voice of ending the US dollar interest rate hike is getting higher and higher, the surrounding stock markets are also falling to new highs. But the currency market seems to be lukewarm and not too passionate. We can see from the chart that I gave a head and shoulder bottom shape at the beginning, which is very similar to the trend of retracement after the March breakthrough. If it does not fall below. The neckline of 25,100 US dollars, theoretically this head and shoulder bottom trend is valid. If you look at the theoretical amplitude of the head and shoulder bottom, the rebound can at least see above 35,000 US dollars. However, there are many factors that restrict the rebound at present, such as the angle of the moving average. The pressure formed by ma200 is also obvious. This moving average is currently around 31,500 US dollars and is falling at a speed of more than 80 points every 3 days. Of course, ma50 is also accelerating upward, so in the next stage, Bitcoin will run in the angle formed by the two moving averages and finally choose a direction. Bitcoin is now in a state of shock before breaking through. It is not a good opportunity for left-side trading. You should wait patiently. Good traders do not frequently look for opportunities, but make correct choices at the first time when the trend is formed.
BITMEX:XBT
by peter-l
Bitcoin 11 may 2023I sold my entire spot portfolio. why? because I see several bad signals 1. it's the meme coins pump and the most important one we have is PEPE who made 1,000,000% before listing on CEX and after listing on CEX another 20-30x. Everyone is happy especially new market entrants, lots of noise, looking for new meme tokens in the end on which they will lose money. As time shows at the end of cycles always pump the most useless tokens (meme) you can see on the chart pump DOGE and Shiba Inu. 2. We have reached my time cycles, as I said in November 2021 that we will have growth until April-May. today it is May 11 and we have been moving in a flat for a month. Yes you can interpret this as accumulation since altcoin season hasn't happened yet. Bitcoin's dominance was rising. But these two factors were enough to close my spot altcoin positions, which kept falling during the month. 3. The correction with world indices I will write about it in the next post, if in two words there is a place to fall. 4. Weekly chart looks bad Frankly speaking, for the last month I was waiting for liquidity (yellow box), but we have not reached it, and I would not be surprised if we reach these points and then go down fast (let's get all sotop loss and liquidation of short positions, which we gained last month) I expect the correction downwards, in August-September I think there will be a local bottom from which we will start the growth
by EXCAVO
22
Bitcoin's Graceful Elliott Wave Dance: Dips, Peaks, and Twists!Dive into our captivating Elliott Wave analysis for Bitcoin, as we unravel the complex journey from a staggering $69k peak to a potential dramatic fall. Discover how we navigate the intricate waves, predicting a short-term dip to FWB:25K before surging to $35k-$40k. But brace yourself – we're foreseeing a massive plunge to $3k- FWB:250 as the grand finale! Don't miss this eye-opening forecast and learn how the unfolding 2nd wave could impact your crypto investments. And this is my harmonic analysis it have the same view.
by BREAK-impossible
51
RWA narrative Real-world assets, is heating up more and more. BlackRock CEO says RWAs will be a major usecase for crypto If you want to start exploring this niche, this sampling will help you a lot. Here you will find links to the Twitter accounts of the RWA projects highlighted in the panorama. Messari PRO recently released an interesting mini-report outlining how RWAs are invading the classic financial sector. Over the past few months, traditional funds and asset issuers have launched alternative asset tokenization programs via public crypto-networks. Recent asset releases have revived interest in real-world asset portability (RWA) onchain and opened up new revenue opportunities within decentralized finance (DeFi). Private equity firm Hamilton Lane has partnered with Securitize, a digital asset release platform, to tokenize part of its $2.1 billion flagship equity fund on the Polygon network. The fund requires a minimum investment of HKEX:20 ,000, well below the typical minimum buy-in (fund entry) of HKEX:5 million for private investors. Hamilton Lane is one of the largest private wealth managers, investing more than HKEX:37 billion in private markets in 2021. It manages SWB:824 billion in assets. Similarly, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced Project Guardian, a pilot program to tokenize bonds and deposits that can be used in various DeFi strategies. A bank participating in the program will be able to tokenize bonds and deposits that can be used in permitted liquidity pools. This capital can be lent in DeFi applications such as Aave and Compound to earn interest or as collateral to access credit. The pilot has attracted JPMorgan, DBS Bank and Marketnode as initial partners. Broader Context Since the first DeFi protocols began gaining momentum in 2020, they have been a driving force in attracting users and traders into the crypto space. DeFi experiments have enabled innovative financial applications such as decentralized automated market makers, stackablecoins, credit, insurance, swaps, synthetic assets, and derivatives. Total locked-in value (TVL) in DeFi applications, conventionally translated as the amount of capital under management, has skyrocketed to a peak of HKEX:248 billion in December 2021 as asset prices rise and new users are attracted. TVL is supported by liquidity mining programs in which protocols drive growth by temporarily increasing returns by offering users rewards in the form of native protocol tokens, such as Compound rewards lenders with COMP tokens. These returns have been volatile as token prices have fallen and overall interest in crypto has declined during the 2022 bear market. Historic USDC Stablecoin credit rates peaked in December 2020 at 18% for Aave and 8% for Compound. Those yields fell to 0.75% and 1.62% today, respectively. As the yield on one-year U.S. Treasuries is around 5%, investors have rushed into safe government securities. Treasury bond yields rose sharply as the Federal Reserve abandoned its zero interest rate policy, with the one-year bond up from the 0.3% yield in December 2021. As the risk-free interest rate in traditional finance has risen and DeFi yields have declined, investor participation in the latter has declined significantly in recent months, with TVL down more than 75% from its December 2021 high to HKEX:52 billion today. To attract new capital, DeFi protocols are beginning to use RWAs as a source of collateral or new investment opportunities, providing more stable returns for investors. Tokenization of real assets, such as real estate, commodities, private equity and credit, bonds and art, is a concept that has been quietly seeping in since 2018. RWAs take advantage of blockchain technology for the on-chain introduction of traditional assets. Key quote: "RWA tokenization offers tangible benefits, including lower minimum investment and increased access through shared ownership, increased trading of previously illiquid assets, increased transparency and security as blockchain records an unchanging record of transaction history, and automated ownership management and compliance." Key statistics: When the seven largest private credit blockchain-RWA protocols are combined, the historical loan value is $4.2 billion and active loans are HKEX:456 million. These protocols use DeFi to provide private loans to businesses and include Maple, Centrifuge, Goldfinch, Credix, TrueFi, Clearpool and Ribbon Lend. They offer an average APR of 12.63%. Outlook and Implications DeFi must offer higher returns than traditional investments to remain competitive and attract capital. DeFi applications such as Maple Finance, Goldfinch and Centrifuge pool cryptocurrency holders' funds and lend them to generate income through different strategies. Maple Finance is a platform for institutional borrowers to leverage the DeFi ecosystem for loans with insufficient collateral. Pool Delegates are loan officers who create and manage pools on the platform and find institutional borrowers by structuring terms for each loan pool. Lenders can then contribute crypto funds to the pools they want to support by lending their assets in exchange for income. To date, Maple has made cumulative loans of nearly $1.8 billion. Goldfinch is in the business of making loans to real businesses in emerging markets. Borrowers must be audited to determine their loan eligibility. Once approved, they can create pools and determine loan terms such as interest rate, loan amount, term and late fees. Lenders can grant capital to individual pools at their discretion and be the first to bear capital losses on impaired loans, thereby earning higher profits. Alternatively, liquidity providers can provide capital that is distributed to all pools of borrowers, earning lower returns with less risk of capital loss. While Maple and Goldfinch focus on private lending, Centrifuge allows more forms of real assets, such as real estate loans and freight accounts, to enter the DeFi ecosystem. On a Centrifuge trading platform called Tinlake, the creator converts a real asset into a non-transferable token (NFT) and includes the appropriate legal documentation. Asset pools are created using NFTs as collateral representing RWAs. Investors can then provide capital to pools that match their risk preferences. Real asset tokenization allows DeFi to enter some of the largest financial markets. Global real estate was valued at HKEX:327 trillion in 2020 and non-financial corporate debt at more than HKEX:87 trillion in 2022. These are colossal markets to which tokenization could bring increased liquidity and new investors. Decision Points When evaluating income opportunities, investors should examine the track record of existing DeFi-applications that use real assets. Have they defaulted? What is the underwriting and due diligence process and how do they manage risk? Underwriters that require borrowers to over-collateralize, have access to insurance, or have support mechanisms in place in the event of default may perform better over time. Notably, Maple Finance had a HKEX:36 million loan default in December 2022 in one of its loan pools. The borrower, Orthogonal Trading, suffered a loss because of the FTX collapse. In response, Maple launched version 2.0, which introduced a faster default and liquidation process for loans that failed. This points to the need for better risk parameters and sector diversification among borrowers for credit DeFi platforms with insufficient collateral, such as Maple. Instead of lending capital directly, investors can also bet on the success of DeFi-oriented RWAs by buying their own tokens. The prices of these tokens will correlate with the rest of the crypto market, but may show greater value for winning platforms. What's causing this boom? Many protocols that previously offered volatile yields have now reduced yields, and as the government offers more attractive yields through bonds, there is a shortage of new capital. By offering RWAs as a source of collateral, DeFi is opening its doors to the broader financial market of non-cryptocurrency natives. Having assets backed in part by RWAs also reduces risk for cryptocurrency lenders. We can expect more and more institutions to adopt tokenized RWAs ), as seen by JPMorgan executing its first real-time trade using tokenized yen and the Singapore dollar at Polygon in November. Hong Kong Central Bank is now offering tokenized green bonds, and other investment banks such as Credit Agricole CIB and SEB are collaborating to develop a platform for digital bonds. If you have read this far you are wondering what will happen to bitcoin, we are close to the dates I said in November 2022. I was talking about April-May correction. it is really going to happen, just like a rock we are unlikely to fall before we have to liquidate most of the short positions. so i expect a slight correction upwards 29200-30050 area Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
13
Bitcoin Bearish Divergence AnalysisBTC/USDT 4H Chart Analysis: Bearish Divergence Indicates Possible Retracement Bitcoin is currently trading at $30500 against the USDT. A 4-hour chart analysis indicates the possibility of a retracement due to the bearish divergence and RSI bearishness. This article will provide a detailed analysis of the 4-hour chart and highlight the support and resistance levels to watch out for. 4H Chart Analysis: The 4-hour chart of BTC/USDT shows bearish divergence, indicating a potential retracement. The last 4-hour candle has also closed, indicating a possible continuation of the retracement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also bearish, adding to the probability of a downtrend. Support and Resistance Levels: Based on the 4-hour chart analysis, the support levels to watch out for are $29929 and $29071. On the other hand, the resistance level is at $30650. These levels should be monitored closely as they will determine the direction of the market. Takeaways: The 4-hour chart analysis of BTC/USDT shows bearish divergence. The RSI is bearish, supporting the possibility of a downtrend. The support levels to watch out for are $29929 and HKEX:29071 , while the resistance level is at $30650. Conclusion: In conclusion, the 4-hour chart analysis of BTC/USDT indicates the possibility of a retracement due to the bearish divergence and RSI bearishness. Traders should closely monitor the support and resistance levels provided and exercise caution when trading. As always, it's essential to have a stop loss in place to mitigate potential losses. Hey, it's CryptoPatel here! I'm passionate about providing you with the latest insights and analysis on the world of cryptocurrencies. If you enjoy my content and want to show your support, please like, share, and follow me for more high-quality updates. Thank you for your support, and let's continue to stay connected for more exciting content! LIKE Share Follow
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoPatel
7
[Bitcoin] ready to rise againDespite the FTX affair wich caused a new low, I believe BTC is ready to rise again due to bullish technical factors: - many bullish divergences in W, 3D, D, 4h - end of the big falling wedge (throwback completed) - new small falling wedge (dashed lines) - historical technical supports (Price, MACD, Disparity index) - blue pill (Hash Ribbons indicator) - bottom found (Puell Multiple indicator) - reversal signal (Network Value to Transactions ratio) Of course, in the event of another major crisis, BTC will fall sharply again.
Long
by Bitcoin_Weather
6
Bitcoin 2nd Break out Soon?Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for some time now, recently been moving upwards and now it has encountered a second resist in my book, it broke out the downtrend from ATH line but now we have a candle close break-out pending. Once this break out, I am measuring last major touch on line led to a strong move downwards, i will use that same line to put towards the breakout giving me a idea where price might head to from the breakout. Not a insane target lol, not a crazy prediction… Just Wizard TA. Thank you and i wish all you good health. Target i say is 57-58k ish
BITMEX:XBTLong
by Clocktivker
[Bitcoin] Christmas gift 🎁Despite the FTX affair which caused a new bottom, I believe BTC is ready to rise again due to bullish technical factors: - many bullish divergences in W, 3D, D, 4h - end of the big falling wedge (throwback completed) - historical technical supports (Price, MACD , Disparity Index, RSI) - blue pill (Hash Ribbons indicator) - bottom found (Puell Multiple indicator) - reversal signal (Network Value to Transactions ratio) Of course, in the event of another major crisis, BTC will fall sharply again.
Long
by Bitcoin_Weather
4
Bitcoin Bull Market Target $200k ?Bitcoin Log Chart Analysis - The author believes that the correct fit for Bitcoin's growth is a square root function in a logarithmic chart, suggesting that growth will slow down on long timescales. - The author is a long-term Bitcoin bull, but remains realistic about the potential for exponential growth. - The author attributes Bitcoin's growth cycles to halvings, which cause a supply shock and subsequent rally. - The author estimates that the long-term goal for Bitcoin in 2025+ is around $150k USD, which they believe to be the final asymptotic price. - Based on historical data, the author believes that Bitcoin could be around $35k going into the next halving. - The author hopes that their chart helps people understand the long-term growth dynamics of Bitcoin, but acknowledges that these ideas are only probabilistic.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoPatel
3
Bitcoin Descending Triangle Pattern UpdateBitcoin LTF Chart Update: Descending Triangle Formation and Potential Breakout Bitcoin (BTC) has been forming a descending triangle pattern on its lower time frame (LTF) chart, indicating a potential breakout in the near future. Traders should keep a strong eye on the support and resistance levels as they could signal a significant move in the market. Currently, the downward sloping trendline of the descending triangle is acting as a strong resistance level around $27850, while the horizontal support line is located near $26800. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakout before making any trading decisions, as trading blindly can be detrimental to your portfolio. If BTC breaks out above the resistance level, we could see a potential upward movement of around 16% from the breakout point, leading to a target of $32000. However, if BTC breaks down below the support level, we could see a potential downward movement of around 16%, leading to a target of $22500. It is important to keep in mind that trading involves risk and it is advisable to trade after confirming the breakout. Traders should never make any trade blindly without proper analysis and risk management. In conclusion, the descending triangle formation on the BTC LTF chart indicates a potential breakout in the near future, and traders should keep a close eye on the support and resistance levels to make informed trading decisions. Remember to trade with caution and always use risk management strategies to protect your portfolio. Follow us For More Quality Updates. Thank you
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoPatel
3
Bitcoin update before FED Funds rate 22.03.2023 Fed Funds rate. There is an 88% chance of a 0.25% 11% chance of a 0.0% Fed rate hike at tonight's meeting. The Fed is in a situation where they can't raise the rate and can't not raise the rate, so it's more likely we will see 0.25 today. More important is Jerome Powell's rhetoric as always. It is hard to make predictions from his speech. Most likely, he will again try to calm everybody and say that everything is fine. We are more interested in his comments on inflation and the banking crisis. I think it will be one of the most important meetings this year, after which the market will decide the further outcome of the move. If all is OK, then we expect continued growth until May. If all is bad, then we go to test 25k and after 23 I think that we will have the second scenario. after the calm and positive we will see growth, the removal of liquidity from above to the area of 29.1 + and then go down because the banking crisis has not disappeared - it remains Waiting for correction Several factors why bitcoin should show a correction 1. Volume profile - in the area of 29-30.5 2. A huge amount of long positions on different tokens (to be liquidated) 3. Slowdown in growth 4. Exponential movement 5. Overbought on many indicators 6. Potential collection of liquidity zones below (blue boxes - liquidity zones) P.S. My scenario is to collect stop losses above 28.5 and then go down Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
27
Bitcoin Weekly Chart Analysis ( All Time high Also Predict )Bitcoin Weekly Chart Analysis: Price Expected to Rise to $32,000 Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a bullish trend in recent weeks, with the cryptocurrency printing the biggest weekly candle in its entire history. As of now, BTC is trading at $28,000 and has broken through the weekend resistance, trading above the old resistance level of $25,000. The high time frame suggests that BTC is still bullish, and we can expect the price to reach around $32,000 in the coming days. However, the $32,000 level is a strong resistance level, and there is a high chance that BTC could reject from there. It is also possible that there could be a retest at the $25,000 level before the price moves upward. Looking forward, it is highly probable that we could see a new all-time high in 2025, with the price expected to reach between $150,000 and $180,000. It is essential to note that this is just a prediction and is subject to change depending on various factors. In terms of support and resistance levels, the $25,000 and $20,000 levels are considered strong support Levels. And $32000 is Strong Resistance Level. Please Like and Follow us for more Quality updates. Thank you
Long
by CryptoPatel
2