ridethepig | $16,000 In Play For BTC !!!As expected... an interesting day for BTC and other major Cryptos with risk under pressure once more from the latest Apple announcements. There is little to update on the fundamental side, with BTCUSD finding support at $9,500 as expected. Risk is likely to remain under pressure today so buying dips is and remains the strategy. A break of $10,000 will likely see further upside towards the $13,000 initial swing target as stops and momentum buying kicks in.
For those following the BTC swing from $6,600 it has been a very easy ride:
You will notice how the advance was clean as troops were marched towards the border:
Destroying the defence ...like a knife through hot butter:
CME Launch was superb news for BTC... we made it in the big leagues:
The question then became centred around seizing the breakout...
Before transferring the attack from a simple retrace towards an impulsive nature:
You will notice the momentum kicking in now, all dips will attract significantly more demand interest. Those in from the lows its time to sit back with a huge grin on your face. This has been a clean and simple ride with a flawless example of trading a +60% move...
I hope it has helped... Thanks guys.
Xbteur
If You Don't Own BTC ... Buy The Dip !!!With treasuries below inflation for only the second time ever in history (btw first time happened at the end of 2016 before monetary tightening). Global CB's are co-ordinating easing this late in the cycle makes it a matter of 'when rather than 'if' BTC will explode. This is the perfect environment to be adding on the dip, and a must have for all portfolios! My readers following on this swing will remember trading the lows:
The Waiting Game
Marching Troops To The Border
Destroying The Defence
Seizing A Breakout
Flirting With A Break of $10,000
On the short-term flows it was crystal clear we would get the retrace as soon as Tokyo and NY offered the open, we lost the highs with a fresh breakdown. This dip is a buying opportunity as highlighted in my latest idea:
...As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc! Jump into the comments with your views!
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2020.02.11On the Crypto side, the market couldn’t make up its mind whether to break $10,000 or take some profits. After a little bit of both types or price action so far this week. Cryptos were generally positive and the dollar offer seems to have returned. Mildly positive headlines on the nCoV front regarding antidotes, combined with reports of some returning to work is also giving a breather to Crypto markets. It’s really tough to find any meaningful reason to take chips off the table so I continue to keep heavy BTC longs. I’m waiting in the shadows to add to LTCUSD longs. The cross traded 75 yesterday as algos persistently took profits. I really think any move lower is unjustified and the strong liquidity injection will see LTCUSD a lot higher once we clear the coronavirus flows.
A better start in BTCUSD after a dip to 9750 but it wasn’t long before the bid returned. With Equities once again on the strong side, BTCUSD has been able to spend most of the morning ticking higher. Chinese accounts seemed to add more longs to the move and we reached 9850. There has been impressive demand for Bitcoin appearing at the levels where it opened the week… 9750. The price action is clearly not bearish but I genuinely think this will rocket when the Fed / Whitehouse funding mystery flow is complete.
ridethepig | BTC Flirting With A Break Of $10,000 !The breakout in play at the $10,000 barrier a level which is itself protected. Another possibility is to remove the "profit taking" from consolidating underneath of the level. The sizings from China are impressive and more generally markets happy to take on risk after achieving a lot of sufficient PBOC support.
Buyers intend to increase the power of the threat by enticing soft retail shorts into playing the downside and then; how can sellers move to anticipate this coming breakup? By covering their positions and putting this through the roof as it would enable a sharp spike towards initial targets at $13,365 ==> follow closely by $16,000 as the main ST swing target.It is worth considering the underpinnings of this swing demonstrated here in the root of the move.
The waiting game
Smart money pinged out price from the lows, here the contact in the demand zone ( Bakkt Floor™ ) established the foundations between turnover in play. Large buys saved the swing which would have otherwise been lost on a breakdown. This brings us to the next conclusion and illustration in the idea.
Marching Troops To The Border
Before we could tackle the entire impulsive leg we needed to check we were well versed in the opening flows. The resistance and channel break should refresh optimism on the idea of higher highs, because both of these are fundamentally necessary for the correct direction and path of least resistance.
The question to follow readers is after the opening operations, do we sit tight and begin enjoying the fruits of our labour? Well, those sharp enough with ammunition stored up continued to work longs.
Destroying the defence
By playing the breakout buyers give no chance to release the tension and allow further defence to reason. $10,000 above here will offer psychological importance and be useful for headlines. It is in other words necessary for algos to continue grinding higher. But we all know that this is one of the most hated bull runs which has happened in BTC history. Retail are starting to turn bullish and have a powerful urge to expand exposure, and thus what we have done to our opponent is to cause death by a thousand scratches.
But moreover, (sadly) risk-off continues and Coronavirus flows have emerged, of which is showing no signs of abating.
Seizing the breakout
The manoeuvre from buyers to break the channel can only be described as impulsive, an advanced move which has been able to bring about demobilisation of sellers and to form a major opportunity after CME options. It removes the resistance from sellers and even allows buyers to approach closer to the initial swing targets. These excellent example of courage from buyers captures the "Establishment vs. People" narrative brewing as confidence in governments globally continue to collapse. Markets reply to FED funding Whitehouse policies will be particularly interesting...
As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts, questions and etc!
ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2019.04.12With a headline that Circle are looking at sanctioning customers with Poloniex accounts BTC is sent sharply higher above $7,500. As with most cryptos recently, the apathetically weak bulls are shaken off the headline as it quickly settles backdown before continuation from large hands.
Shabby geopolitics and protectionism will continue to be met with a lacklustre reaction and flows into BTC and other cryptos will continue. The West smells of apathy and fatigue, democracy is struggling to get momentum and clients I speak to are ready to react in the short-term.
An update to the technicals here with the Bakkt floor in play:
Here tracking for the catalyst into year end, especially as BTC has failed to break down to any of the trade war headlines in recent times. I will continue to trade the buy side for now.
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments.
Bottom confirmed but not a bull market yet!BTC finally broke out of the descending triangle it was stuck in for the last 6 months. The recent price movement also broke the 200 EMA which is a good sign that we might have finally hit the bottom on 18. December at € 5.8k.
Still that doesn't mean that we are in a bull market yet.
The incoming retrace will confirm or disprove a bull market. If we can find support at a higher low than recent lows (say € 7k) this would be a strong sign that we're entering a bull market. If we fail to hold 7k I would expect a rather long sideways move or even a continued bear market for at least another month or two.
#Bitcoin All with the upcoming 2020 !!!Dear friends, I congratulate everyone on the upcoming (or already coming) new year! I wish you all your desires and goals to be fulfilled!
Feel free to go to new heights, achieve, never give up, win! Happy New Year 2020 !!!
In the last day of the outgoing year, I will share with you my vision of the market, and I will also try to answer the question that interests many: “Where will Bitcoin go?”.
In general, my analysis of December 28 is still relevant. The coin is still moving in the flat 6500-7400, between two moving 100 and 200. Based on the CME limit levels, we can see that the most important areas are $ 7030 and $ 7260. Fixing the price for these zones will be able to say: in which direction an impulse will occur. In general, after the setup of December 28, and aggressive purchases, the advantage is still on the side of buyers.
Also, it is impossible not to notice such a signal as an inverted head on the day, but it can only be traded after confirmation, namely after breaking through the neckline.
To summarize, the priority is now on the side of buyers, and until the price has fixed below $ 7030, I highly recommend not selling.
In my opinion, the best option for now is to keep a long.
Stop at $ 7030, a coup at $ 6950. Target for short $ 6720.
All profitable transactions, dear friends!
Subscriptions and likes at will *:
XBTEUR 1h chart: short term analysis 20121224Since we're in a big Flat correction, this final C wave of the big flat is a 5 wave up:
This analysis only about the 5 waves up.
Currently we're in wave C of wave 3 of the 5 waves up.
Wave 3 in itself is divided in sub (abc) waves.
The (abc) positions indicate the theoretical targets of each sub-wave. The rectangles indicate the maximum and minimum prices per sub wave.
However, no time analysis has been done. Thus do not consider the width of the rectangles nor the positioning in time of the waves.
20191220 XBTEUR Head and Shoulder CompleteHi guys,
So, i dont know if there would be another one HS l... if this is just the first one of this uptrend or not but right now, One is complete at 4hs. Theres confirmation with volume and indicator.
Hope this help you out!
I dont know if ill be aboe to keep track and post before christmas so, if not... I wish you a Merry Christmas to all and good holidays with friends and family!
Cheers and have a safe trading!
-CharterX
Telegram: @CharterXTrader
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20191215 XBTEUR Open Short PositionHi there,
So, as you see in fractal analysis, and in next images. Same pattern, but with more impulse to the uptrend, but at the end is the same result. If im not wrong is going back to the base of uptrend.
Hope this help you out!
Cheers.
-CharterX
Telegram: @CharterXTrader
Telegram Channel: @CharterXTradingChannel
Telegram Chat: @CharterXTradingChat
Instagram: @CharterXTrader
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Bitcoin: Where is the Bounce?!After nearly a 40% drop from the retest of the bearish pennant at 10k, Bitcoin is now setting on the trend line that supported the 6k level back in 2018.
So far, BTC has actually broken below this level, and has since seen roughly a 10% bounce so far putting us back above.
However if history repeats itself, which it often does, this historic trend line should provide ample support for a bounce.
As many of us know, this market tends to move sideways for some time after a significant move. Therefore I am expecting BTC to hover within the painted triangle above before deciding on a direction.
With us sitting just above this major trend line, my bet is that we will be moving up for a retrace.
Therefore my current trade is the following:
Entry: $7000
Target 1: $8500
Target 2: $9600
Stop/Loss: $6500
Be sure to check out my idea on why I didnt think the 40% daily was bullish:
Fib Trend Analysis. MAJOR SUPPORT FOUNDBased on a basic rule of thumb, if the .786 or greater retracement is hit after a significant bull or bear trend it is expected that a reversal has taken place.
BTCUSD just so managed to hit the .786 after its 2018 low of 3100. Therefore based on this rule, BTC has entered an unconfirmed bull trend.
Keeping this in mind, it would be wise for fib traders like myself to start to look for major retracement levels for BTC .
One of the most common levels is the .382 which just so happens to be just below where we are now at 7852.0.
As long as this level is held, we can expect further upward movement from BTC .
However IF this level breaks, I would find it extremely likely that we would test the major trend line around $7000 and possessively even the .5 retracement level around 6600.
Looking further down we also have Multi-Year Horizontal support at $5850.
My Plan & Opinion:
With us currently above the .382 support, I would love to enter a long term long. However at the moment there seems to be too much hesitation and uncertainty, so an additional leg down seems very likely.
I believe IF BTC were to test the $7000 area larger investors would feel more comfortable entering the market. So why would I be willing to buy here if they are not.
I will be paying attention to lower time-frames in search of trend confirmations and try to keep everyone updated with my position.
Markets are like life, they rarely go as planned.
Hope you enjoyed this update, and trade carefully!
Bitcoin to stay above 7000 EUR till 28-30 octBitcoin is currently hanging around a resistance trendline.
I think it will struggle to hold above it.
If it breaks the resistance it will get stopped at around 7660EUR.
If it breaks the 7660EUR target it is not yet in a new bullish run.
As seen on the 1D chart and 3D chart there's a much stronger resistance trendline waiting to get tested.
There's a nice opportunity to go short at 7960EUR.
If it breaks the 7960EUR and holds it with nice volume it could sign into a new bullrun.
What is more likely is that 7050EUR gets tested and may have one jump from it.
Volume is slowly lowering and the bulls are slowly dissapearing.
probability to 7050EUR around 70%
probability to test 7650EUR around 30%
probability to test 7960EUR around 15%
20191026 XBTEUR Open Short PositionHas you see, inverse head and shoulder as usual makes the head and shoulder as a result. Expect a drop price.
I did not wanted to put the target but you could measure the candle of head. Take as reference the volume to identify it.
It's hard too see it on candles because of the volatility of Crypto but i hope this would give you reference in future on how to detect thems.
Cheers and Safe trading!
Charter X
20191024 XBTEUR Open Short PositionHello,
So, Clearly there's an Head & Shoulder formation at this point, RSI and all indicators tells that's a probably good time to open short position.
Price Targets:
1. 6690 Eur - Probably bounce to 6720 or not.
2. 6670 Eur - Probably bounce to 6720 this is more likely in personal opinion.
3. 6620 Eur - More probabilities to bounce and try to go back again to 6800 zone.
Cheers,
Charter X
Game of Ladders - The Bull ScenarioOver the past couple weeks, we have seen overall sentiment of the market gradually switch to bear.
Though this may hold true, I though I would share this bullish fractal pattern and possible trading opportunity.
The chart above shows Bitcoin currently sitting just above a long term pitchfork support. This is the second time testing this pitchfork support which is happening in a very similar manner as on June 10th of this year. The arrows above are there to point out the similarities.
Not only that, but the previous test of 9050 was a perfect hit of the .236 fib extension from the swing of 19k to 3k.
Other Minor Reasons:
- Currently above weekly S1 pivot support.
- Volume Extension showing seller exhaustion
The Trade:
Entry 1: 9400
Confirmation: 11150
Entry 2: 11150
Target: 17000
Stop/Loss: 9050
With the overall sentiment changing to bear, this may not hold true.
However the fractal and opportunity is here.
I hope you all found this article interesting and maybe even a little helpful!
Wish you all the best of luck!
Few interesting intraday levels for Bitcoin For short term, those to areas/levels (green and red box) are really interesting for me, at least.
If the first resistance (red) level is NOT broken, there is a good probability this turns into a 3 dive pattern (see comment with a 4h chart) and hysteria fulled selling will continue for a while.
If red level gets smashed, the next important R is at the area marked with green box.