XBTUSD
4yr cyclic lines suggest bitcoin capitulation and new bull run!every 4 years bitcoin capitulates after the clocks return from BST to GMT/UTC in the UK (end of October).
price also has 100mma around the previous ATH.
Cyclic bars suggest history is about to repeat...
Fibo circle suggests we may see some sideways action into 2023 before the next ATH bull run, or price pops $50-60k region for a more corrective scenario (we will see)...
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): I am BULLISH! Here is WHY: ₿
Have you seen that peculiar confluence zone on Bitcoin on a daily time frame:
we have a perfect match between a horizontal demand cluster, 382 / 50 retracements
of the last 2 bullish impulses.
After the test of that structure, the price formed an inverted h&s pattern on a 4H time frame
and broke its neckline, confirming the strength of the buyers.
I anticipate growth now at least to 28300
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Bullish divergences on 1D Bitcoin Might as well be nothing, just indicators needing to adjust after the recent drop (17th of August). But I'm getting a little nervous 'cause it's taking longer than I expected initially so I thought I'll quickly share it here.
IF BTC really resolves to the upside (see my bearish bias in the last update ) targets would be 27k and mid range at 28.139$.
High timeframe: Where to buy BTC before the 4. halving?I'm expecting some kind of crash event before the 4th halving (currently expected for the 22nd of April 2024), similar to what we have seen back in 2020 with the 'covid crash' 9th of March.
The market is weak, good news don't have a lasting effect and I expect BTC to leave the current trading range (~6 months) downwards sooner than later.
I still think the bottom of the cycle is in (~15.500$) so where is my current HT buying zone?
Two strong support levels on 21.830$ - 19.291$, therefore the closer BTC moves towards 20k $, the more I'll buy, *hoping* for peaks down to 17.560$.
In case BTC breaks below 15.500$ (current bottom imo) I'll shit my pants because it would invalid my meta idea of where the market is moving, but will sell house and horses at that point. I think it's highly unlikely we'll ever see those levels again except some kind of global catalyst event like a Russian tactical nuke in Ukraine or a similar catastrophic disruption.
Another opportunity to short XBTBITMEX:XBT has been touching the area of 25'980 USD, for a couple of days showing a huge support around that area. However, in theory with each touch on the area its gonna be debilitated.
In sum, I think it's a matter of days when we broke again to the downside having an opportunity for a short (if you are not already or in cash). The move it's gonna be tricky.
My strategy is the following:
1) If we touch again the area in consideration I will put a short with a Stop Loss (SL) with a medium conservatism waiting for a quick rebound (as in previous cycles).
2) I will close 25 % of my position at 24'000 and keep taking profit every 1'000 USD until getting to 75 %.
I will keep updating this idea as the market evolves rapidly.
BTC SHORTBITMEX:XBT has touched three times the support at 28,855 USD on the Daily. This pattern represents a short for me. I placed a short position yesterday to hedge my long placed since the bottom on the FTX crash on november 2022.
I don't have a target, yet. I will update my ideas on this trade.
INVERSE ADAM AND EVE + INVERSE BATMAN PATTERNS! BULLISH!Several bullish patterns! Slowly showing what patterns are in play here. Difficult to trade if you are new, but starting to make sense for someone who has been trading for several years. This will likely rip up as previously stated. That Batman pattern is not my imagination but an actual pattern traders use It is similar to a Head and Shoulders pattern except that in the Batman pattern, the Head structure is smaller and the shoulders (representing the ears) are larger :D
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Important Zone to Watch ₿
Bitcoin violated an important horizontal daily demand zone this week.
The broken structure turned into a supply area.
The price is currently testing the broken structure.
Analyzing the intraday price action, I spotted a bearish flag pattern.
I believe that a further decline will initiate after a breakout of the support of the flag.
4H candle close below that will confirm a violation.
A bearish continuation will be expected then at least to 29000.
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could you handle this savage potential 1:1ive been aiming for 36k as a final target since the start of this mini run in January.
this recent PA has been a bit meh, with buy interest coming down at a point where i believe some players have loaded a lot of sells teasing everyone for the 32/33k liquidity.
as this local mini range is just an sfp of Aprils high and price drop would be considered internal structure all the way down to the swing low
...so, could you handle this savage potential 1:1 before #bitcoin tanks to lows and forming a bottom?
Invalidation would be a weekly close above Aprils high, or just cutting through 20k like butter,
Bitcoin The Upcoming Supply Shock ETF / Treasuries
The Bitcoin Illiquid supply vs Exchange Supply is at 15.2M BTC 78.3% of circulating as of June
It's very true we can't guarantee how many coins in the total supply are actually lost since the Genesis block but a rough number has been floating around that it's near 10+ million.
Let's run this math on Bitcoin with the supply today sitting at 19.4M
Reduce that by 10 Million
9,415,993 supply left
Bitcoin treasuries (companies) roughly 600,0000
8,815,993 supply left
Why not let's take the coins on exchanges off and average it around 2,000,000 coins
6,815,993 supply left
$31,100 puts Bitcoin at a $211.8B market cap.
If Bitcoin had a market cap of $602.0B, 1 BTC would be worth $88.3k
with the supply adjusted to lost Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin had a market cap of $1.2T, 1 BTC would be worth $179.4k, an upside of 293%
Now why are all the giant funds rushing to file for a spot BTC ETF? and why have x2 leveraged ETFs been allowed on the market?
Global retirement assets alone measured in 2020 around 60 trillion
Let's just say these spot ETFs get accepted and 5% of 60 trillion gets allocated to Bitcoin you know because Bonds / Real-estate are breaking.
That would put 3 Trillion into the Bitcoin market
If Bitcoin had a market cap of $3.0T, 1 BTC would be worth $445.1k, an upside of 11x
When times changed in the 1970s gold had a similar reaction.
People might be wondering what happens if Bitcoin's market cap overtakes gold with the lost supply / cold storage adjusted.
If Bitcoin had a market cap of $12.0T, 1 BTC would be worth $1.8M, an upside of 54x
(note this is estimated based on all current and past data and will have minor errors).
My data comes straight from leading high-end intelligence sources.
The year is 2023 the United States government still decides to own 204,013 Bitcoin.
Leading institutional ETF's on US markets will allow not only internal allocation (Blackrock) but will open the ETF market to the entire global financial system.
This may very be the end of Bitcoin large down turns and the new norm will be putting your name on a list with your investment firm or bank to promise allocating you Bitcoin from miners before it hits the market, during this ETF period the panic and ability to acquire Bitcoin is going to be unparalleled.
Why am I confident ETF's will be approved? future ETF's including x2 leveraged ETF's are used to hedge and manage risk that is necessary to allocate and run spot ETFs.
"although workers produce things for the market, market forces, not workers, control things. People are required to work for capitalists who have full control over the means of production and maintain power in the workplace"
Karl Marx
Bitcoin Analyze (Road Map, 05/01/2023)!!!🗺️Hi everyone👋.
As mentioned in previous posts, Bitcoin failed to break the 🔴 heavy resistance zone($ 32,420-$ 28,900) 🔴 in the first⚔️ attack⚔️.
According to the theory of Elliott waves, Bitcoin completed the 5th wave at $ 31,000 and is currently in a corrective phase. It takes time to recognize the structure of the corrective phase, but we can expect Bitcoin to fall into the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 or 🟢 support zone($ 25,300-$ 23,940) 🟢 after breaking the support line.
💡 Signs of the end of wave 5 :
There is a Regular Divergence(RD-) between the end of wave 3 and the end of wave 5 in the RSI indicator (Bitcoin's growth last week was a pullback to the neckline of the Double Top pattern)👇.
There is a Regular Divergence(RD-) between the end of wave 3 and the end of wave 5 in the Volume indicator .
Crossing 50-EMA below 50-SMA (interesting to know that the first buy signal confirmed the start of wave 3 - the first sell signal confirmed the start of corrective wave 4 - the second buy signal confirmed the start of wave 5 - the second sell signal can start to confirm the corrective phase).
Bitcoin Analyze ( OKX:BTCUSDT ), Daily time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
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BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Your Trading Plan For Today ₿
Bitcoin is currently retesting a broken daily structure support.
To sell the market with a confirmation, watch 1H time frame.
I see a double top pattern there.
25415 - 25470 is its neckline.
If the price breaks and closes below that, it will give you a strong bearish signal.
Sell aggressively or on a retest, then.
Goal will be 24930
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BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Bearish Outlook After FED ₿
After yesterday's FOMC signaling further rate hikes later on this year,
BTC dropped heavily.
The price violated a key daily structure support and closed below that.
It opens a potential for a further decline.
Next support - 24360
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BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Bearish Fundamentals & Bearish Outlook ₿
Sellers have strongly reacted to the news about Binance CEO.
If you missed, "SEC Sues Binance and CEO Zhao for Breaking Securities Rules".
The market formed a high momentum bearish candle on a daily time frame,
that violated a key horizontal demand cluster.
The broken structure turned into a strong zone of supply.
I will expect a bearish move from that at least to 24500.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Long Trade Explained ₿
Bitcoin broke and closed above a key daily resistance on Sunday.
The market is currently retesting the broken structure.
Analyzing the reaction to the underlined blue area, I spotted a tiny double bottom pattern on 1H time frame.
The price has successfully violated its neckline.
I recommend buying Bitcoin.
Goals: 28050 / 28400
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Bitcoin 🌊Salutations,
In the esoteric realm of Elliott Wave Theory, the fourth oscillation has a strong tendency to revisit the territory claimed by the previous degree fourth wave.
When one applies this law to the labyrinthine chart of Bitcoin, an intriguing correlation emerges with a distinctive territory that lies between $3,000 and $6,000.
This is no ordinary territory; it's a magnetic nexus of institutional curiosity -
a place where the public supply will dissipate like an apparition once this so-called "bear market" concludes its melancholic serenade.
Upon the successful implementation of Wave 4 (eloquently depicted in this particular scenario by an elegant double zig-zag pattern),
we can then initiate a gargantuan phase of markup as wyckoff would refer to it.
This titanic of an ascendancy will go on out to complete the Grand Cycle Fifth Wave of Bitcoin,
rising like a leviathan from the oceanic depths of market fluctuation.
---
w4 - $5,700
w5 - $810,000
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Watch Carefully ₿
Bitcoin formed a huge head and shoulders pattern on a daily time frame.
The price is currently testing its neckline.
If a daily candle closes below the underlined green area on a daily,
it will initiate a bearish movement.
A bearish continuation will be expected to 24400 then.
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BTCUSDT above support,to continue growth after retest of supportBTCUSD
The price is currently above support/resistance structure, after a pullback if price holds above the support I expect the price to move higher...
Trade Wisely
*The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.