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Xbtusdshort

Bitcoin looking bearish in the short termAfter being rejected multiple times at a strong level of confluence (The purple box), price has also broken through a major trend line that started on the 12th of March. The 50MA was acting as a dynamic support until it too was broken a couple of days ago. The last line of defence is this short term trend line which has been holding strong. The RSI has crossed below 53 on the daily, 53 on the oscillator seems to be a more important cross than the typical 50. There has been a lot of long wicks to the downside in the recent weeks which could suggest the bears are slowly showing signs of strengths which could lead to a bear trap. Volume has been average of late and would need a significant surplus to break past the strong psychological level at 10k. Could we see yet another retest of 7k before a final push to 10k? Short Trade: Entry: $8,816 - Below the breakout of that short term trend line , could of placed it a little bit higher but keeping it there to try and ensure I don't get stop hunted Stop loss: $9,200 - Would mean that price has gone back above the support level making the trade wrong Target #1: $8,901 - Major level of support Target #2: $7,712 - Top of an order block Target #3: $7,200 - Strong area of confluence
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by BeerCanCapital
Bitcoin looking bearish in the short termAfter being rejected multiple times at a strong level of confluence (The purple box), price has also broken through a major trend line that started on the 12th of March. The 50MA was acting as a dynamic support until it too was broken a couple of days ago. The last line of defence is this short term trend line which has been holding strong. The RSI has crossed below 53 on the daily, 53 on the oscillator seems to be a more important cross than the typical 50. There has been a lot of long wicks to the downside in the recent weeks which could suggest the bears are slowly showing signs of strengths which could lead to a bear trap. Volume has been average of late and would need a significant surplus to break past the strong psychological level at 10k. Could we see yet another retest of 7k before a final push to 10k? Short Trade: Entry: $8,816 - Below the breakout of that short term trend line, could of placed it a little bit higher but keeping it there to try and ensure I don't get stop hunted Stop loss: $9,200 - Would mean that price has gone back above the support level making the trade wrong Target #1: $8,901 - Major level of support Target #2: $7,712 - Top of an order block Target #3: $7,200 - Strong area of confluence
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by BeerCanCapital
1
BTCUSD / TD9 on weekly; waiting for 2h-12h TD9 confirmationsLooking forward in June I believe we will see at least 1-2 weeks (more likely 3 weeks) of red. I'm looking for another lower TF confirmation to enter short here. On weekly we have: - lower HIGH (we did not break previous february 2020 high) - TD9 confirming over the next 23h - volume decreasing upward - OBV going negative on most TFs Trade setup: looking for 2h-12h TD9 confirmation over the next 2-6 days to enter a short, below 10k targets would be fib levels relative to (feb->march dump) ~ (march->may rally) i think the lowest we would see is 0.5 fib retracement so lower than 5k i dont think is going to happen (i hope it doesnt) my primary target would be high 6xxx or low 7xxx as bottom what would invalidate this trade setup? - making a higher-high (HH) above 10.6k closing on 12h or D plus lower TFs - breaking above and holding 12h or D on the ATH down-trend-line - another strong indicator would be closing the currently weekly candle (closing in ~22h) above. if we do that, i wont be looking for a short and will be staying out of any trade.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by ezpi
1
Quickpost: BTCUSD Head and Shoulder can break month long supportThis is a relatively micro formation so the chance that it get busted his higher than average, but the fact that a very lose head and shoulders has formed and that gives day traders a pattern to play in a very technical manner. I have played a bit with taking profit of head and shoulders on full performance of the right shoulder rather than doing calculations on the traditional head to neckline calculation put forth by Bulkowski (thepatternsite.com) and this is more as a matter of convenience than maximizing profits. Should this perform we get below both the blue trendline and the EMA 4h ribbon in a decisive manner. There is always the possibility that we retest support as resistance and this counts for both the ribbon and the trend line. This is a micro chart with macro implications based on my other post today. Another rejection as detailed in the linked post does not bode will for bulls and would suggest over-performance on this formation.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
1
BTCUSD EMA Ribbion; OBV EMAs & VStopBTCUSD has once again slipped the EMA ribbon on the 12h, as well as a trendline which can now act as resistance. It is very possible that price action will have a failed break out attempt and get rejected by the blue trendline once again as shown by the hammer Further that, the OBV EMAS have crossed all bearish, with the 100 above the 20, above the 10, above the OBV. The OBV has no support from any of the EMAS. In addition, the OBV EMAS are divergent to the previous high, signaling exhaustion from the bulls. This is how bad the OBV situation is with just some simple pattern recognition, on the arithmetic chart. Further that, the new system I am looking at is suggesting a move to the downside as well. on the 12H we should have been short on volatility stops for a while and the 9Seasons rainbow is screaming reversal with red (bear) yellow (resistance) and light green (weak bull). The 9Seasons preponderance is bearish. Volatility stops on the daily have flipped bearish and are well above the trendline that i expect to act as resistance. The 9Seasons rainbow on the daily chart at most timeframes is signalling either strong resistance (yellow) or weak bull (light green). Log chart target settings are either blue falling trendline or black rising trendline. Please review the lined ideas if you want to see similar concepts at play.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
1
XBTUSD Crypto Trading Youtube is failing USI follow some choice crypto trading youtube videos and I feel deeply that many of them are failing us. Fundamental concept for price action: when resistance and support flip be prepared for a powerful move. A trend reversal. One prefered trader covered this concept this week, but instead of looking at a multi-year trend they are looking at a month long trendline. Another generally good trader called this move a "beautiful correction" and ignored the fact that tension with China is on the rise, civil unrest in the US is on the rise during election season, and COVID19 numbers are going up. The same thing that tanked the SPX, and XBTUSD, and caused unemployment to skyrocket is still a exogenous shock to bitcoin. Many others pretended that they had covered this reversal as their majority opinion as opposed to their casual cover their ass throw away statement. Crytpo is a peacetime inflationary asset, not one you buy during turmoil and potential real world depression/contraction. We don't have beautiful corrections during these times The OBV is bearish divergent. The MACD is decreasing and the MACD histogram is showing hidden bearish divergence. Price action is stalling at the Upper Value Area. All this at a time when previous support is now resistance and we have turmoil in the real world. How many different bearish indicators do we need? Here is BLX, the chart with the longest history on bitcoin, with a pair of simple volatility stops on the monthly time frame. Now believe you me, when I see the Vstops on BLX flip to bullish I am going to be changing my tune. Until then, my bias is short.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
6
Bitcoin's Bearish Volume is still the issue.Volume and trend lines gives us, really, about 90% of everything we need for good trading. The Volume Profile, Visible Range, On Balance Volume with EMAs, And Money Flow Index give us a lot of information on volume action and each trend line on this chart is at least two years old. I like to use Kraken as its reputation as the least spoofed and most secure crypto site so I trust its volume data above other tickers on tradingview. None of these indicators work if you don't trust the volume data, so that is a major caveat to this analysis. Key thing to notice: During the massive bull run of $300 to $19,000 the price action hopped on top of the Upper Value Area and rode it as support all the way up, and it was when that upper value area failed as support that we entered the bear market. Since mid 2018 the Upper Value Area has continued to act as dynamic resistance and buyers have not stepped up above this area. If we include the whole kraken data for xbtust (shown below) we can see that the bull run starts when the price action mounts the upper value area. We can also see that price action got very tight before that happened, with the candles touching both upper and lower value areas. That combination of price and and volume action does not currently exist. The OBV with EMAs clearly show hidden bullish divergence from the peak in June 2019 to today. The Money Flow indev, which is nick-named the Volume Adjusted RSI shows hidden bullish divergence and the fast MFI is in over-bought territory. The rising black trend line has acted as support from late 2015 and is only just now beginning to act as resistance. Given we are at resistance of the VPVR upper value area, the triangle resistance, and this black trend line the most likely thing I would suppose would happen is a pull back to either the symmetrical triangle support or the next High Volume Node/Point of Control on the VPVR. This prognosis is negated if the price action some how mounts the black trend line again, tests it as support, which means that it has gotten above both the falling resistance of the triangle as well as the Upper Value Area. Should that happen a very long and sustained multi-year move to the upside becomes very high probability. But now that isn't in the charts.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
2
XBTUSD Bitcoin long termLonger term view. This is a likely top area unless if we break out, which would signal a new bull run, particularly if we set a higher high than 10100. Otherwise, seems likely we retest the support areas of the XBTUSD triangle. Mid 6k's might form an inverted head and shoulders, otherwise, low 5k's are a possibility. Expect downturn in June and July unless if the present area breaks out above. If we dump here in the summer, later this year or early 2021 may be the beginning of a new bull cycle as the resistance trendline gets lower and lower.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by ThulsaDoom
1
Idea of a SHORT trade with the XBT/USD. Channel congestions b.o.This is a trading idea created for the date: 28/5/2020 and is valid until 24:00 GMT+1 Symbol: XBT/USD Time Frame: 4 Hr. bars Expected duration of position when open: 4 Hr. up to 29/5/2020 24:00 Trade idea is: Channel congestion low side break out making it probable for a downward move towards 8500.00 Go SHORT if Price goes thru (below) 9090.00 Position your T/P @ 8594.00 Position S/L @ 9587.00 When the SHORT is open @ 9090.00 and the prices goes thru (below) 8840.00 move your S/L to : 9355.00 If position is still open on Friday close it out at 24:00. Profit or Loss!! No trading during weekend for risk of low liquidity and spread widening. Close the position before the weekend with Profit or Loss! Next week we can find a new opportunity for another trading idea. Happy trading, Dan CryptoDesperado
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoDesperado
Bitcoin: You only have to listen.I know the pain of losing a grip of cash through inexperience at trading and emotional regulation. We are at one of those moments were lots of money are going to be made and lost and you need to listen. I am not qualified to give financial advice, and I am not a Certified Market Technician. But I have worked a lot to master the basics and it comes down to a few basic principles. This isn't advise Price Action. This includes all the basic charting formations. It also includes when support and resistance flip, either at sloped trend lines or horizontal levels. It also includes all the retests that can be so frustrating when you are seeking continuation or reversal. Previous price action suggest future price action. The idea of fib extensions, fib retracements, bollinger bands, ichimoku clouds, average true range, all play into this concept of using previous price action to predict future price action. Volume Action. Volume is the most important indicator, bar none. It confirmed break outs, areas of support, and chart patterns. You can use volume by time, which is standard, or volume profile. Indicators/Oscillators signals . Particularity in this case, Indicator Divergence. This is last for a reason. As by brother told me after I got blown the f/o on a trade "the indicators were divergent before they weren't." Lets simplify this chart, which can be somewhat noisy. First the Resistance The fuschia lines outline a symmetrical triangle and the price action is at its 4th major test of this level. Past action suggesting future action is a rejection. The rising green trend line is a massively important multi-year trend line. It is painfully obvious to me know how important it is, and if I knew in 2018 what I knew now I probably wouldn't be wage-slaving today. This green line was support from 2016 to the latter end of 2019. Now in 2020 it is asserting itself as resistance. Just so happens that the green and fuschia arrows form a crux. The volume profile Value area can act as resistance and support and price action has a tendency to go from one value area to the other, and to be drawn into the midline, or the price level where the most price action (buying and selling) has occurred. I like to place the visible range of the chart at trend reversals/trend beginnings to get an idea where the volume is on that specific trend. The volume upper value area has clearly been acting as resistance since June 2019 and I don't forecast that changing in any meaningful way. Now we have covered resistance again, onto indicators The Volume Profile suggest places that price action will cut right through (at the low volume nodes) and stall or bounce (high volume nodes). If price action goes "edge to edge" on the value area we are out of the triangle, and the bottom fuschia trendline is now in play to act as resistance. If we proceed to the Point of Control this suggest that the price action is in descending triangle, and that will be pretty brutal. The On Balance Volume with EMAs works really well when you use some divergences and basic charting. The fuschia trendline continues to show classic breaish divergence and I beleive that will create a downtrend. Conclusion Based on this system, which I have attempted to craft by mastering the basics, there is very limited chance for an upside move for swing traders and investors in bitcoin. There is an extraordinary case for price action being at resistance and facing a retrace. Lots of signs suggest sub 3,900. This isn't the time to get reckless. I follow several youtubers, and most of them are missing these fundamentals. They can mention the gaussian channel all they want, or some other fancy indicator, but the basics can get you a long way. In generally I consider Bitcoin to be a liquidity sponge, and I generally think that bitcoin will go up greatly against the dollar under these QE eternal conditions, but when things get scary people in brokerages flee to cash, and people on mainstreet flee to cash and precious metals. When the brokerage selling is done crypto and precious metals will have their day. But that day isn't going to happen this year. Triangles often break down into falling wedges and I see either of the triangles detailed in this post doing the same
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
1
Probable scenarios For BTC Next MovemonetWe are facing a Strong Resistance on Monthly Frame at 9250$ So we have two possible scenarios for now First One: Is that BTC Succeed to break the resistance at 9250$ So it will continue to Test the next Resistance at 10760$ Second Scenario : Is that BTC failed to break the resistance so it would fail to support at nearly 7227$ So, I am entering a Hedge Trade at 9240$ as a short Trade with double quantity Stop-lose above 9250$ as if it failed in breaking the res. i will continue with my short position and if it broke the resistance the position will Flip into Long Position With Stop-Lose under 9250$ With Targets Mentioned in the Chart. With that position we have A near Stop-loss and far target and we also can avoid the false breakouts (Please Don't use more than 3X with Max 10% of Portfolio)
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Coinovu
2