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btc 10\12 updategood morning, in my last post i shared a potential short term bear case, but the rejection from the important algo target which was mentioned was extremely weak, which leads me to believe we're going higher. still very possible we're in a larger a-b-c, but it would have to be an expanded flat at this point, which would end closer to 72k before the final flush (to around 33~40k) for the larger wave 4 scenario. --- in this post, i'm simply counting the local structure - which i do think is coming to an end soon. my upside target for this current impulse is at 60k on the dot not sure about the downside target yet, but the local golden zone would be sitting at about 40k. this would satisfy a larger wave (2) of a higher degree, and it'd set btc up for a big run to end this year. will probably post a video update later today, or tomorrow discussing the two main scenarios which i'm keeping my eyes on.
by notoriousbids
11
BTC - SMALL PULLBACK BEFORE BULLISH BLAST TO 56KHey guys. I've spotted some nice indicators on the BTC charts and they do appear to be lined up well so I feel more confident in more upside continuation. MACD suggests a small pullback , HOWEVER , RSI is showing some bullish divergence... THEY CAN BOTH HAPPEN and I think they will. So as you can see on the chart, this has a good chance of creating a nice inverse head & shoulders pattern with 15%= gains if you go long from the neckline confirmation area. The SAFEST WAY to play this is to wait for the Inverse H&S pattern to complete and then see an upside breakout from the neckline! A more aggressive entry would be to go long after the pullback and bounce from the 46k area. This will definitely bring alt-coins up as well so it would be a good idea to see which ones are in the best position to pump when/if BTC is about to breakout! The downside targets if 45K-46K support fails or we get rejected at the neckline while attempting to complete the right shoulder! What do you guys think? I think this is a good opportunity! If you like the idea PLEASE SHARE and follow me. I also provide other content on my Twitter although lately I've been a little busy at home. I GREATLY APPRECIATE all shares and followers as well as comments. Thank you! *** Disclaimer; This is an IDEA based off of my experience and is not to be considered professional advice as I am not a professional investment advisor. I ALWAYS recommend doing your own research before investing in anything ***
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mboersma0324
3
btc 9/3 updategood morning everyone, pardon for not having any updates these last few days - had some technical difficulties with my pc, and just got it back today. so, let's talk about my btc post from july: i predicted a move up to around 50k back from the lows in july, and we're here right now. the volume isn't getting any stronger, this move doesn't really look impulsive in my eyes - and if it's not an impulse, then it's there's only one other thing it can be; a correction. i'm not convinced that wave 4 is in. intuitively, and based off everything i've learned over these last few years - i've gotta stick by my original count in which we see another low before the real bull run begins. maybe it won't be as sharp as i'm projecting, perhaps we see a massive triangle form before the drop into late 2022, but i do think we see that wave 4 target at (21.9k) get hit before any significant upside, despite how long it takes. --- stock market is about to see a major downfall in the days ahead, dxy is gearing up for a massive move to the upside - there's chaos in the streets, and the things aren't looking so hot in the real world right now. feel like the stars are aligning for a major spike to the downside soon, just not sure when. 51~54k is the area i'll be layering in my shorts, with confidence. best of luck to all, i might be passive for a few days unless i see some changes in the charts. ps. i think 4655 is the top for ETH, and the ETHUSDSHORTS chart just keep rising to astronomical heights unlike i've ever seen before. ps.2 micro alts might go parabolic soon, swing them in the short term for some big gains - just don't forget to take profits & always make sure to keep an eye on btc. ✌ 💸
Short
by notoriousbids
22
Bitcoin Stalls At Major Resistance Zone, Will Bulls Push?-BTC is up 25% over the past month -20MA has acted as support since the bottom in July -Price has formed a curve which shows breakout in 1 week or less Bitcoin has been having trouble tackling the $50,000 mark over the last 2 weeks. After prices surged off the bottom of $29,000, BTC managed to rise nearly 75% in less than a month. Since then, BTC has been steady within a $5,000 range which has allowed many alt coins to surge past their ATHs. The overall market is still showing bullish signs as many investors are anticipating a push over $50,000 to happen fairly soon. On the daily timeframe, BTC looks overextended but this does not negate the possibility of a surge to $55,000 before a larger pullback occurs. As BTC has risen over the last month, each top it has put in has became less parabolic. This price action has formed a curved top along with a curved bottom over the past 35 days (shown in black). The end of this formation is within a week & BTC is expected to have a large breakout sometime before then. It is hard to say whether this Is a bullish or bearish pattern but we can use each curve as a reference. BTC must break & hold the major resistance zone found at $48,000-$50,200 to experience a large push to the upside. In the case bulls manage to pull this off, expect BTC to reach $53,300 & potentially $56,530. Throughout this bullish trend, BTC has been held up by the 20 day MA. This MA has kept Bitcoin from starting a downtrend as bulls have fiercely bought each time price has reached it. We can use this MA as a good reference to whether BTC remains bullish or is entering a bearish state. If bulls fail to break the major resistance zone & break below the curved formation, we should expect BTC to break below this MA. If this occurs, BTC will then be in a confirmed bear trend & we should expect prices to land between $42,000-$44,700. While looking at the Stochastic RSI, we can see how strength has continued to print lower highs despite price printing higher highs. This is considered a bearish divergence & would land BTC back below $45,000 if it plays out. Strength must break over the trend line to negate this possibility. Looking at the RSI, we can see a channel formation has kept strength going sideways the past few weeks. Strength must break the top trend of this channel for BTC to have a shot at reaching mid $50,000s. BTC Intraday Analysis Spot rate: $48635 Trend: Neutral Volatility: High Support: $46600 Resistance: $50200
by CoinGape
1
"The law of alternation" (btc)The rule of Alternation: There is a general tendency for the pattern of the two corrective swings in a completed 5-wave sequence to alternate between a simple (very often an ABC) correction and one of the more complicated or complex Elliott corrections. The law of alternation states: if wave 2 is a simple correction, wave 4 will be complex. In the contrarian case, if wave 2 is complex, wave 4 will be simple. ---- As you can see since the beginning of time, the corrections have alternated between simple ones, and complex structures. Covid crash was a simple zig-zag, which leads me to believe that this wave 4 is going to be complex. i do think we will be seeing 22k by march\april of next year, but it won't go down without a fight. nobody knows when the top is going to be in for this current move, but i theorize it'll be anywhere between 51~59k before it enters into a triangle \ complex distribution phase - similar to what we've seen in the past. i'm in no way bearish on btc, in fact i've some extraordinary upside targets for the future - just not before this correction ends. we flow with the waves in either direction, and we move with the markets, forever and a day. ps. i'll stay trying to trade the shorter term structures as they come, but they're getting harder and harder to decrypt as we near the end of this move. 💸
BNC:BLX
by notoriousbids
28
I'm not a bear anymore. 🚀No this title isn't clickbait - I think I genuinely figured out what the pitchfork is going on around here. >I might be late to the pawrty, but from my perspective, I am right on time ;). That odd move from 6\22~7\4 seriously threw me off, and I bet I wasn't the only one who was caught off guard by that peculiar structure. It was a leading diagonal 😅! I spent so many hours trying to figure out what in the world this uncanny formation was, and it wasn't until this evening that I decided to just scrap all my old charts and start with a new perspective. I was looking at the ETH chart, looking for some clues... When it all clicked, and everything just came together effortlessly. That move on ETH from 6\22~7\7 was a leading diagonal (It is a lot more pronounced on the eth chart, and was a lot more difficult to spot on the btc chart unless you were genuinely looking for it). Lessons were learned on this night. ----- As for the argument that we saw 5 waves down from 64k - Let's call it a WXYXZ . All of the measurements check out flawlessly, and it's one of the more complex structures in the book. I see btc pulling wxyxz's on the minute time frames all the time. The algos are pre-programmed to mess with us, and I think that's genuinely what this is. ----- Watch for this last sub-fifth wave to complete at 49.5k (123.60% extension) to put in Wave (1) of our bull run. From there we see a 0.618% (gz) retracement, to retrace this entire move that started in June down into Wave (2). The golden zone perfectly aligns with the bottom of our pitchfork perfectly, as well as the midline of the bull channel we've created in March of 2020. Wave 1 target = 49.5k Wave 2 target = 34k Wave 3 target = 84k Wave 4 target = 60k Wave 5 target = 108k here's a visual representation of the bull channel: --------- also here's the same idea posted on 7\23 Ps. I knew deep down that this rally was real, but I always try to look for alternative scenarios just in case. This is the one and only as of today, and it is my primary going forward. Once that Wave (2) is in, I'm going long \ hodl'ng everything & never looking back. 100k by christmas eve, calling it right now 🎄
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by notoriousbids
22
taking another crack at this count.since most of the liquidity goes through binance, this will be the primary chart i will be using going forward. previously i was using the kukoin chart, as that's the exchange i use, but this morning i learned that nothing else matters except this binance chart. ---- this last move on july 31st from 42885.28 ---> 37915.50 caught me off guard, and i bet i wasn't the only one. the only chart that clearly shows what's going on is this binance chart, every single other exchange made a lower low for that move, which made things very confusing \ invalidated this larger picture. this is the only scenario that i could possibly think of given the new data this morning. looking for 47~48k to put in wave (1) on the higher degree, before the 0.618 wave (2) pullback to that 35k area. this would in theory set us up for a much larger move to the upside.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
3
Bitcoin Reaches 80 Day High, But 200 Day MA May Cause Rejection-BTC has revived nearly 55% off its low -Price has just kissed the 200 day MA -A long term trend line may cause rejection Bitcoin has finally broke out of its 2 month range that bears has continuously kept price within. This is a great sign for the overall crypto market as the majority of coins have followed BTC’s lead and have revived strong off their lows. But, before we can say the market is in the complete clear, BTC still has important marks to break & hold. Many anticipate new ATH this year but there is also a bunch of others who believe this a dead cat bounce for the markets, setting the stage for a drop to low $20,000s. BTC held the $30,000 support multiple times as bulls were always there to gobble prices back up. This provided a launchpad for BTC to rise $15,000 in nearly 3 weeks. At the time of writing, BTC is getting rejected at a long term trend line that has held prices down since the ATH was set. BTC must clear over this to technically be in a complete uptrend. Along with this trend lies the 200 Day MA. Price has been stuck under this MA for over 2 months & bulls must clear this to be in a safe state. There is also a major resistance of $44,700 that must clear along with the two other marks. 

 If BTC fails to clear over these 3 important marks, price will retrace back to minor support of $42,500. This seems like the likely scenario as of now. If this minor support fails to hold BTC, further downside will occur once price breaks below the short term trend line. This will confirm a slight bearish trend is in place & BTC will likely go down to retest somewhere within its major support zone of $37,800-$40,200. 

 While looking at the Relative Strength Index, we can see that strength peaked into the overbought territory 2 different times the last week. Unfortunately, while BTC just hit near 45k, the strength printed a lower high than its previous push to $42.5k. This is called a bearish divergence and they are highly accurate within the crypto space. The Stochastic RSI did the exact same thing as it printed a lower high than before. Both indicators have a bearish divergence & this will likely cause a retrace to occur. 

BTC Intraday Analysis Spot rate: $44,000 Trend: Bullish Volatility: High Support: $42,500 Resistance: $44,700
by CoinGape
1
An honest observation. I wanted to give you all my honest opinion on this move, and how i feel about what is happening right now. This is an inversed chart on btc, inversed to make this as clear as possible. From the highs of 64k, we saw 5 waves down - with the last wave seeing a truncation. 5 waves down is not a correction, it is an impulse. Corrections generally move in 3 waves (5-3-5) 1-2-3-4-5(A) - a-b-c(B) - 1-2-3-4-5(C) (some corrections are more complex than others, but after a 5 wave move down, we can eliminate every other type of correction except the simple 5-3-5) (A)'s have 5 waves within them, so do wave (C)'s. Which leads me to believe despite how things may look and seem these last few weeks, is we are still in a much larger correction. Wave 4 corrections take the longest time to play out, and are the most psychologically advanced moves in the markets. We are in a large Wave 4 correction from my perspective, and this will take time to play out. Could take weeks to months to a year to fully complete. Take full advantage of this move up, hodl the alts which will run hundreds to thousands of percent in the meantime - but just keep this idea in the back of your mind, and remember - that this larger correction has not yet been completed. ------- These are my four targets for for this second corrective phase (Wave B) 0.618% - 47k 100.0% 54k 123.60% = 59k 161.80% = 68k Extended wave B moves are not uncommon, and they happen all the time - they push to the absolute extremes, sometimes even make a new all time high before the final drop which is usually the most parabolic move in any market. One of these targets will reject and btc will drop to the low 20k's before the big Wave (5) begins. (it is impossible to know which one of these will be The target, but i have a few ideas using some other data points) ------- Take a look at the 1 year chart on the Fear \ Greed Index for btc; notice how when btc tops out, the greed index starts to consolidate \ move sideways before a massive drop down. This is what I'm looking at daily, and will continue to do so until i see this consolidation take place - once it does it will semi confirm a top, and we could better anticipate the closest target to us. Also take a look at the 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap , Notice the how btc's heatmap turned blue recently, which triggered this strong move up. Historically - during a correction, whenever it turns blue that is when a dead cat bounce occurs, before the deeper dive to touch the 200 week moving average. Ps. I will conclude this by saying: this is just my own personal opinion, from my own experience with corrections in the various markets out there. I have seen tens of thousands of them in my journey, and I feel fairly confident when identifying one. I am not bearish, in fact I am extremely bullish on btc in the long term. I think once this correction is completed, our final fifth wave on the highest degree will go anywhere between the hundred thousands all the way into the millions. Best of luck to everyone, stay safe out there!
by notoriousbids
16
btc primary.look for this wave 1 to top out at 45.5k that's also where the 200 daily simple moving average is, perfectly in confluence with our sub wave 5 target to put in wave (1) on a higher degree. from there we should in theory see a mean reversion for wave (2) to about 34.7k the alternative is btc will have a flat correction, similar to last year, where it will move sideways for a month or two, rather than down. if we do see the mean reversion for wave 2, that is the key entry for long positions on any alts, as well as leveraged longs on btc. since btc wants to move up, we have to adapt to what the new data is showing us, and as of this moment that data points straight up. wave 5 could see an extension to 100k+, but i'm being conservative with my analysis here, and giving it a 84k upside target. better to aim lower, than higher. best of luck to everyone, let's get it.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by notoriousbids
22
Btc Daily update 4 avgust 2021: Part 2 Btc made breakout as expected bullish divergence played out we got strong implusive movment. So basicaly around 40k i expect pullback to 38.3k which was big resistance expect to retest it to make big support zone that will be area where we are gonna look to reentry and ride it easy to 40.7-41k if break these level we can see 44k or even 46k. This is for traders update. For Holders i suggest to move sl at today low and to ride it till i issue market is toped out and there will be best to quite market and wait for better chance. Alts will make also some pullback to retest their resistances depends of charts but in next 48h there will be alot of opportunity to buy the alts,btc and everything. I think avgust or just next 10days will be great. We will see.
by RhinoAkaBear
4
"A new beginning".I have been doing a lot of thinking about this move, and all of the psychological components which came with it. The best way I can describe what has been happening recently, to put simply - is a very complex phase of distribution. Would explain the extreme spikes in volume, the overly volatile moves which don't seem to make much sense at times, and this obscure over-extension which looks like it will never come back down to equilibrium. Moves like these were created to pull people in, to trick and mess with everyone, even with some of the most experienced traders out there. By the book we call a move like this " the suckers rally". I never did like the term, but that's really all a move like this is. What I am presenting tonight, is my version of what this correction has been, and what it will be in the coming months before the next bull run ensues. Looking for a final upside target of this correction to be at $50,000. Downside target to put in Wave 4 on a higher degree = $20,550 We can talk about the Wave 5 upside target in my next post, for now let's just focus on completing this rollercoaster of a correction. Ps. This may be my last post for some time as I focus more on my trading, and less on sharing my ideas with the world. I will return when the time feels right. ✌ 💸 🌊
by notoriousbids
16
algo targets, long\short setups 🔑looks like we've confirmed this impulse quite eloquently, and i think we can all agree on that together. this is my current projection as of this morning, and the one i am willing to trade with confidence. sub wave 3 target: 43~45k sub wave 4 target: 39~37k sub wave 5 target: 47~50k. this should put in wave (1) on a higher degree; after which we should in theory see a 0.618% retracement of this entire move into wave (2) on the higher degree. that wave (2) algo target is beautifully in confluence with a retest of the bigger bull channel which is at play, it's also the strongest area of demand in this current visible range.
by notoriousbids
1
it isn't time yet.i took a closer look at this recent rally, and i can't help but feel like something is off about it. my intuition is telling me that this is yet again another phase of distribution before the deeper drop to lower lows. it would explain the unusual volume spikes in this 34k range. ---- my downside projection sits at 25.5k as of this morning, and until the charts tell me otherwise - this will be my primary count going forward. i could be wrong, but i have to trust my intuition on this one, as it is what got me here in the first place. we could make one last push to about 36.2k, but the probability of that is very slim as of this moment. i started layering in shorts as of this morning, and will continue to do so until i am proven wrong. 💸 ps. i talked about this scenario not too long ago, and this false break out of this wedge is the ultimate trap to anyone who doesn't see it coming. i have seen this scenario play out so many times on the smaller timeframes, so i just felt like sharing my opinion on this with you all.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by notoriousbids
34
btc long setup 7\22.Now that we know where we are, we can safely know where we are going. Wave 4 corrections tend to be very complex, and very complicated to figure out - which is why i have spend so many days and nights working on this picture; unlike simple corrections which are a piece of cake and take me a few minutes to chart. This was one of the hardest charts I've ever had the pleasure of working on, and it was very much worth the experience. -------- I am safely theorizing that we have begun working on Wave (B) of Wave 4 on the highest degree. Wave B's move in three waves (a-b-c) or (w-x-y). We can eliminate the w-x-y, as this is a clear impulse- Leaving us with just one final scenario. The structure we have begun working on, on July 20th is wave a of the larger Wave B structure of Wave Y of Wave 4 on a highest degree. When this wave (a) finishes its five wave impulse and tops out at 33,600, we should in theory see a 0.5 ~ 0.618 pull back for the smaller downward wave b move. Knowing this, we can position ourselves nicely for that wave C swing in the days ahead. I am projecting this wave c of Wave Y of Wave B of Wave 4 on the highest degree to move to about 40.5k as of this evening. That is my safe target, and is as high as I am willing to swing a long. Taking it any higher is playing with fire in my professional and honest opinion. Buy zone: 0.5 = 31378 0.618 = 30,875 --- Sell zone = 40k. see the full idea via:
Long
by notoriousbids
18
"it's just a double three" 👆Been thinking long and hard about this picture, and i think this is the one. i've been observing the price action these last two nights on the smaller time frames, and noticed that from our july 20th "bottom", there was a shift in momentum, a break of pattern - and a totally new vibe that's entered into this market space. hard for me to explain what i mean, but i'm sure you could see\feel it too. we haven't seen an impulse this clean in quite a long time, which leads me to believe that we are finally in Wave Y of this Wave B correction. all of the fib relations check out for this flat idea, and i have a few potential targets for you guys. • Wave Y = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave W • Wave Y can not pass 161.8% of wave W otherwise it will become considered a Wave 3 impulse. Therefore, •100% = 37.1k •123.60% = 39.3k •161.80% = 43.1k If btc breaks above 43.1k on this run, then our Wave 4 correction is behind us, and we can expect to see new highs. ------------- Ps. I've never traded a flat correction before, in fact this is the first time I am seeing one this large with my own eyes. All of these relations are textbook accurate, so I'm going to simply treat these coming days as a learning experience, so I'll know what to expect if we ever come across this sort of structure again. I appreciate all of your support, and I hope you guys trade safe in these crazy markets. \\ i entertained this flat idea the other night, but the liquidity hunt the other day really threw me off. which would put our wave C target ranging between 14~20k depending on where this wave b move tops out.
Long
by notoriousbids
15
a deep dive into the projected downside target.i made a post on february 4th calling the top of btc at 60k - i was off by 5k \\ you can view that post down below. also made a post back in march, warning everyone about the massive signs of weakness i was seeing. my projected downside target back then was between 10k~15k, but i've come a long way in this learning journey, so i'm here to say that we will not be seeing 10k. we could though, get all the way down to 14k as that would be the 123.60% fib extension (aka wave 5 target of wave c) - which would keep our 11 year grand cycle count still in tact. the bullish invalidation for the 11 year move would be at 13831.41 (via the bitcoin liquid index chart) each exchange varies in price, but i think the blx is the universal chart which matters the most - so let's go with that number. you don't want to know what would happen to btc if 13831.41 was breached - matter of fact, let's not even talk about it. - if you press alt + i on your tv chart, you are able to inverse it. i find it much easier to chart downtrends from this perspective - so that is precisely what i did here. as you can see: wave 3 of wave (a) hit the 1.618% fib extension, wave 4 hit the 0.386% fib retracement, and wave 5 is projected to hit anywhere between 14~18k via the 100%~123.60% fib extension. this is probably not something any of you want to hear right now, but it is not like i am making this number up, it is simply what the chart tells me as of this evening. Wave A target = 25k Wave B target = 43k Wave C target = 14k. -
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
21