Xcuusd (Copper)
FCX and the looming recession?pure play copper not exactly best idea for global recession positioning.. but, who knows how this thing is going to go down. Copper is so important, it cant be left behind for long? Maybe it can? But accumulation at least shows some promise.. Should be fun next few months! Please let me know your thoughts.. FCX performance lately is scary. Big money know some details the little guys arent privy to just yet?
XCUUSD - plan for next weekMy first one on Copper. Let's see how it will close today and open next week. If there won't be any surprise, I expect it to pullback to red area, where I'll start shorting. If it won't rise from here but just keep falling, close bellow 2.58 will be trigger for shorts also. Targets in green are valid for any of these scenarios.
Disclaimer: this idea is solely for my own purposes, to satisfy the ego, if it will work out ;)
CPER: United States Copper ETFBecause of copper's widespread applications in most sectors of the economy — from homes and factories to electronics and power generation and transmission — demand for copper is often viewed as a reliable leading indicator of economic health.
CPER ETF seeks the daily changes in percentage terms of its shares’ per share net asset value (“NAV”) to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the SummerHaven Copper Index Total ReturnSM (the “SCI”), less CPER’s expenses.
M timeframe BEAR
W timeframe BULL
FIB retracement 61.8 acts as support BULL
INVESTORS too negative about global growth BEAR
GROWTH continues with but with slower rate BULL
RSI W oversold with divergence BULL
MACD divergence with bears loosing momentum BULL
DXY index too appreciated expecting dollar weakness which would be good for commodities BULL
RRR favorable BULL
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"COPPER (XCUUSD): ready to go up" by ThinkingAntsOkDaily Chart Explanation:
- Price is against a Weekly Support Zone.
- Price is under a Descending Trendline.
- Bullish Divergence on MACD.
- If price breaks the Descending Trendline at 2.68, potential to move up towards the Resistance Zone at 2.96 and, then, to the Weekly Resistance Zone at 3.2.
Our Weekly Vision supports this potential long idea. Take a look!
Weekly Vision:
Updates coming soon!
Copper: Buy Opportunity after a successful 1M Support test.Copper has touched the 1M Support (2.5400 - 2.5300) on the first week of August and has been rising since. This indicates that this long term demand level may once again accumulate long term buyers. It is still though on the early stages as 1D remains mostly on neutral grounds (RSI = 46.067, Highs/Lows = 0.0016, MACD = -0.018) so investors still have time to enter. The Resistance levels on 1D are two: 2.74500 provided by the MA200 and 2.8000 - 2.84000 provided by the symmetrical Resistance Zone.
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Dr Copper sending a sign of a potential recession?If you follow my work, I believe a recession is coming...and could be a reason the Fed is cutting. Check out my posts on the recession signal and the US Dollar linked below.
This sets up the potential confidence crisis that I talk about in my bitcoin and gold posts and why these assets will likely go higher. We are told we are in the strongest economy ever...yet it is so strong that we need to cut interest rates. According to economics, when the economy is strong and overheating, you RAISE interest rates. While cutting is used when the economy is weak. Again, check out my work on how this is leading to a confidence crisis as central banks and the keynesian economists cannot admit their policies failed and were wrong. It is all about maintaining confidence by way of having an excuse to save face (geopolitical). Once market participants know QE will be the norm, the confidence in government, banks and the fiat money will begin to wane.
We know there is a major yield inversion which generally predicts recessions. The yield curve is pretty much inverted but the financial media keeps touting the spread between the 2 year and 10 year yield which has not inverted yet. We are about 9 spreads away before inversion. Once this happens, the media cannot hide the yield inversion anymore. It tells us that people are worried and uncertain about the future.
Copper is also known as Dr Copper, as it shows us a sign of the world economic health. Copper is used in infrastructure and building homes etc.
China's large building boom accelerated coppers demand.
Now we are at the point where it seems the world economy is slowing down. Again a lot of signs showing recession such as bond yields, bad data such as PMI (which tells you what is coming, rather than CPI, which tells us what has already happened: the future vs the past).
Others also point to Oil recently. Oil can tell us things are slowing down too. Oil can remain buoyed however due to geopolitical tensions.
Copper is at a very interesting support area right now. You can see a head and shoulders within a head and shoulders...although I would be quick to point out that the second head and shoulders (within the larger head and shoulders) is not a true head and shoulders since they need to appear either at an uptrend or downtrend. But the larger head and shoulders pattern is valid.
So let us watch this 2.50 zone it is very important. A nice break below can take us to 2.20 and then a break below 2.00 can take us much lower.