DAX Can dip even lower with the RSI being the keyThe German stock index (DAX) has had a strongly bearish week as it got rejected just below the 14700 June 06 High, inside the greater Resistance Zone that is holding since March 29. As we mentioned last week, this is a much needed technical pull-back following the +24.50% rise since the October 03 Low. The 1D RSI got vastly overbought above 80.000 and it is only natural for the market to seek to normalize these levels.
The 1D RSI is now almost at 40.000 but based on the Support Zone (green) that has been holding for over a year, it can dip to 30.000 if not lower before DAX turns into a buy opportunity again long-term. This will most likely be below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) being the 1st Support and the Higher Lows trend-line the 2nd.
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DAX Big MA200 hit but needs +14000 to avoid new selloffBig bullish news for DAX yesterday as it hit the 1D MA200 for the first time since February 2nd. Even though it has also broken above the Lower High Resistance of the Bear Market since October 27th, there is one pattern remaining which if repeated, can cause a new selloff.
That is the April Cup pattern which after it failed to break its Resistance, it caused a massive selloff. The level for DAX to beat in order to cancel this is 14000, which just so happens to be near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Otherwise we can visit the September low again where the 1W MA500 will be waiting. The weekly RSI can offer a fair estimate of what could happen next, bullish above its Higher Highs Resistance and bearish below it.
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DAX Hit the 4H MA200 for the first time in +1 month.DAX (FDAX1!) hit today the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 14. This is still technically a short-term bullish reaction (Channel Up) within two longer term bearish structures (Bearish Megaphone with the dashed lines and Falling Wedge o a broader frame). With the 4H RSI approaching its Resistance Zone, it is not unlikely to see a rejection by tomorrow back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
We have accurately laid out this information on our previous DAX analysis 10 days ago:
Basically as it happened from July 19 to August 12, we may see continuous pull-backs on that Zone as the price breaks the Bearish Megaphone to test the top of the Falling Wedge. On the long-term only a closing above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which is untested since February 02, can be enough to change the trend from bearish to bullish.
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DAX made a major bullish break-out.DAX is now trading above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the third straight session with the 1W RSI at its highest level since late January. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (14800) is just below the 14950 Resistance formed by the March 29 High.
That is a short-term target, buying after that can be justified only by a 1D candle close above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), in which case we will look for a complete gap closing at 16275.
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DAX Last week's trading plan intactDAX eventually followed the trading plan suggested last week, as the price turned neutral into a consolidation range, following the rejection on the All Time High Lower Highs trend-line:
The strategy is still valid. As long as the Lower Highs trend-line holds and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level supports, we can keep scalping for medium-term profits. A break above the Lower Highs is a bullish break-out signal targeting the 16290 High, while a break below the 0.382 Fib (13900) is a bearish break-out signal targeting initially 13350 (March 10 Low).
Notice that in RSI terms (portrayed on the 1D time-frame), it has started trading downwards on Lower Highs, similar to January. That was when the correction trend of the Lower Highs started.
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DAX rejected on Lower Highs. Unless broken, consolidation ahead.DAX broke and closed yesterday above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since January 20. Despite this bullish development, the index failed to break above the long-term Lower Highs trend-line of the correction, which has been holding and rejecting the price (6 rejections including yesterday's) since after the All Time Highs.
The last time that happened, DAX consolidated for more than 2 weeks (February). As a result, as long as it fails to break above the Lower Highs, it is more likely to see a consolidation within roughly 14800 - 14100, which as you see is within the zone of the 0.618 - 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels.
A break (and 1D candle closing) above the Lower Highs, should be enough to extend this bull run all the way to the 16290 All Time Highs. Similarly a break below the 0.382, could restore the bearish sentiment back to the 12420 March low.
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DAX Approaching the 1D MA50. Key for the recovery.The German Index has made a +17% rebound since last Monday's bottom and is very close to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is the natural Resistance for the index as it has been unbroken since January 20th.
In a similar situation after the U.S. elections of November 2020, DAX started the strong uptrend of 2021 once it broke above the 1D MA50. It's first stop was the 1.236 Fibonacci extension level. On the current fractal that Fib is around 17200 and can be hit by June.
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DAX about to make a significant bullish break-outDAX is testing today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 02, where it failed to make a close above (despite breaking it intraday) and got rejected. On the long-term we see that the 14,810 Support has held on 5 tests since May 2021, and up until the January 05 2022 Double Top, we've had Higher Highs. The long-term trend thus remains bullish.
If the index closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we expect a rally towards (at first) the 16290 Resistance. Notice that when the 1D CCI was on the current levels previously, DAX printed a Higher High/ Higher Low pattern.
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DAX waving a short-term buy signal againFollowing our most recent DAX update, the price did eventually yield to its signs of exhaustion and pulled-back:
The pull-back extended as low as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday where it found support and is rebounding today. This could be a short-term buy signal again, the technical overlay was explained on the previous update. As you see this is similar to the 1D MA50 rebound of October 29 which also came close to the Internal Pivot trend-line and pushed the price to its final blow-off top just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. A Target Zone within 16400 - 16600 as the new blow-off top is realistic.
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DAX Emerging MA50/MA100 Bullish Cross on the 4H.DAX appears to have completed the short-term profit taking pattern as presented last week on the following analysis:
The 1D MA200 held and the index can now resume the uptrend towards the top of the long-term Channel Up. On today's analysis I shift focus to the 4H time-frame where the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) are close to forming a Bullish Cross. Last time that happened was in October 20 and resulted in a massive rally to 16300.
All the price needs to do is clear the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which rejected the rebound today and break this short-term Bearish Megaphone. At the same time the 4H MACD just printed a Bullish Cross as well, while the Higher Lows trend-line from the November 30 market bottom is holding firmly. We are looking for a medium-term rise around the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (16300).
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DAX Trading PlanDAX rebounded today exactly at the bottom (Higher Lows) trend-line of its October Channel Up (blue) mainly due to the bettern than expected E.U. and German PMI data. If this effect is short-lived and the Channel breaks to the downside (quite likely as the MACD just formed a Bearish Cross on the 1D time-frame), look for the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the next buyer accumulation. That happens to be within the 0.5 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels. If however the Channel Up holds, the index should go for the next Higher High. In either case the next upside target is the 2.5 Fibonacci extension around 16500.
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DAX Bullish continuation towards 16000.My last DAX analysis was on a bus signal after the price broke above the 4H MA50:
The short-term target of the 4H MA200 eventually got reached and now I shift my focus for the medium-term back to the 1D time-frame.
As you see the price has been trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a week. The very same consolidation pattern around the 1D MA50 was last seen from July 23rd to August 3rd. It led to the formation of the 16030 All Time High/ Resistance. I am expecting a similar rise/ target.
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DAX hit the 1D MA200, first time since the US elections!DAX hit today the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 04 2020, which was the period of the U.S. elections. That was at the start of a very aggressive end-of-the-year rally.
Right now the index is rebounding after having made a Double Bottom just below the 15040 Support. If we also consider the July 19 Low, then this can be treated as a Triple Bottom. It is possible to see a similar pattern as May - June 2021, which also rebounded after a Double Bottom, that time on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line, which is the first Resistance) instead of the MA200. The RSIs of the two fractals are on Inverse Head and Shoulders.
The medium-term target is naturally the Resistance (16000), while on the long-term a price range within 16250 - 16400 as every previous Higher High since June has been near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension .
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DAX Fractal from 2017 hints to one last HighThis is a fractal comparison for DAX on the 1W time-frame. As shown on the chart, the Channel Up since the October 2020 low has many similarities with the Channel Up since the June 2016 low. They both started after a recovery of the price below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and continued posting Higher Highs for as long as the 1W MA50 was supporting. In 2017 the final peak came in October (one marginal break and rejection in Jan 2018) and then the index corrected back below the 1W MA50, even the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the Fib extensions, the 3.0 level should hold (even with a marginal break below) it and push the index for that last High on the 5.0 level at 16700. Even their RSI sequences seem fairly symmetrical.
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DAX Bullish fractalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as long as the 1D MA50 holds or if the Channel Up breaks upwards. The pattern resembles the Nov 2020 - March 2021 Channel.
Target: 16500 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
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DAX Ready for a strong reboundPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price is re-testing the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on a potential Double Bottom similar to late February.
Target: 16300 (just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level).
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Trading Idea - FRAPORT BUY
Target: 59.00 EUR (ca. 10%)
Stop Loss: 52.40 EUR
1.) 23.02.2021: 30M chart: breakthrough at 48.00 EUR, important level!
2.) 24.03.2021: 30M chart: rejection at 48.00 EUR, support level confirmed!
3.) intact upward trend!
4.) The actions introduced by the airport operator opened up further potential, wrote analyst William Fitzalan Howard in a study published on Thursday. The cost reductions are not yet sufficiently appreciated by investors.
Trading Idea - LPKF Laser ElectronicsBUY Limit Order
Buy Order: 22.24 EUR
Target: 36.00 EUR
Stop Loss: 19.12 EUR
1.) Strong support level at 22.00 EUR. Rejection expected!
2.) In total, it does look like LPKF Laser & Electronics has some positive aspects to its business. Even in spite of the low rate of return, the company has posted impressive earnings growth as a result of reinvesting heavily into its business. On studying current analyst estimates, we found that analysts expect the company to continue its recent growth streak.