DAX: Low risk buy here but exit below the 1D MA200.DAX got rejected on the 1D MA50 and pulled back to the bottom of the Channel Up again. The 1D technical outlook turned bearish (RSI = 43.037, MACD = -52.700, ADX = 29.821) a closing under the 1D MA200 confirms a long term bearish reversal. Until that happens, we will be bullish on this bottom structure, targeting R1 (TP = 16,530).
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DAX Buy opportunity on the 1D MA200 and bottom of Channel Up.DAX is on the 3rd straight green 1D candle after it almost hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) last Friday, which is intact since November 10 2022. This rebound comes as a natural reaction to the long-term Support dynamic of the 1D MA200 as well as the presence of Support 1 from the July 07 Low.
As long as it holds, we will take it as a buy opportunity and target 16700 (Internal Higher Highs trend-line). If it closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA200, we will take the small loss and open a sell targeting Support 2 at 14470.
Notice how even the 1D RSI almost hit the 34.70 Support and is rebounding, which is an additional buy signal. Don't neglect also the fact that Friday's low was formed at the bottom of the 7-month Channel Up pattern.
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DAX Found Support on the Megaphone's Higher Lows.DAX is on the 8th straight sideways 1D candle as it found Support on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Bullish Megaphone pattern. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the short-term Resistance while the price is trading around the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as pivot.
We are bullish, targeting the Internal Higher Highs trend-line at 17000, as long as the Megaphone's bottom holds. The bullish extension may be even higher considering the fact that the medium-term pattern could be an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) that technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 17400.
If however the price breaks below the Higher Lows trend-line, we will short-term sell targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where a 1D candle close below it, would justify a bearish extension to Support 2 at 14470.
For now the trend remains bullish, as illustrated by the 1D RSI also which is on an 8-month Support Zone.
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DAX: Bullish above the 1D MA50.DAX is pulling back today after a rejection on R1 (16,530), the biggest 1D red candle since July 6th. The 1D technicals are bullish (MACD = 102.900, ADX = 31.239) but the RSI close to becoming neutral (RSI = 55.835), which indicates the slow pace of this uptrend. The 1D MA50 made an emphatic hold four days ago, so as long as it holds we expect the index to continue reproducing the February-May fractal. Our final target is again on the HH trendline (TP = 16,650).
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DAX: Supported by the 1D MA50, ready for a slingshot.DAX is on a marginally bullish 1D timeframe (RSI = 56.008, MACD = 24.500, ADX = 26.521), which indicates that there is still significant upside potential to the rebound that started on the July 7th Low. That Low may have been a HL on the long term Channel Up but also a LL on the two month Channel Down. The 1D RSI is also at the top of its Channel Down, so in order for us to buy again, we need to see a breakout over both tops.
If that happens, then there are high probabilities of the move replicating the slingshot of April-May as they both broke out after an Inverse Head and Shoulders was formed. Consequently we will buy that breakout and set a TP = 16,800.
It's worth mentioning that a crossing over the R1 invalidates the potential of a Head and Shoulders (bearish pattern) that may be forming since May 19th.
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DAX above the 1D MA50, has already started the new rally.DAX broke yesterday above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again after rebounding at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the December 2022 Bullish Megaphone pattern. This is the new technical bullish leg that will aim to form the next Higher High. On a similar way with the previous bottom rebound on March 20, the Low was also priced after the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) broke.
Their RSI patterns are also identical, with the current attempting to test its Lower Highs trend-line before breaking it. The MACD Bullish Cross that was just formed is also in line with the previous two (March 29 and January 03). Every Cross below 0.0 is a long-term buy opportunity.
Our target is just under the Internal Higher Highs trend-line at 16800.
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DAX: Short term buy opportunity.DAX is rebounding after a -4.60% decline that turned the 1D timeframe bearish (RSI = 42.197, MACD = -69.700, ADX = 37.228). Even though that decline hit the bottom of the long term Channel Up, we focus more on the short term where after similar declines in the past two months (both -4.30%), the price rebounded to at leastthe 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Consequently we go short and target the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 15,930) which can connect with the 4H MA200 as well.
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DAX One last pump to 16600.DAX is on the 4th green 1day candle in a row, extending the spot on buy entry we gave 2 weeks ago exactly at the bottom.
The 1day RSI is on balance bullish levels (62.31) and shows still upside potential while there is still room left before the Channel Up makes a Higher High.
That will be at a +6.30% rise from the Low, as previously taken place.
Target remains at 16600.
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DAX potential pull-back.DAX had an excellent run since our buy signal (see chart below) more than two months ago (March 21) but after it broke above the former All Time High (ATH) on May 19, it has formed a top and is pulling back:
As long as the price is closing the 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it will be a buy opportunity targeting the top of the (dotted) Channel Up at 16600. If however it breaks below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) we will quick sell towards the Channel's bottom at 15350 and add a new buy there. In either case, the target remains intact at 16600.
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DAX Can decline more before finding a bottomDAX had an excellent run since our buy signal two months ago (March 21) but has since formed a top and is pulling back (see chart below):
The price is below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and today is testing the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since March 29. The 1D RSI is still neutral around the 50.00 mark, meaning that there is still more room left on this downside. The next technical Support is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is on a significant Support cluster as it is just above the October 01 Higher Lows trend-line.
We expect a bottom to be made at 15500, it offers a solid R/R ration for buying and that is what we will go, targeting 16300 and the previous High, which was the first target of the late March rebound.
An addition signal to help with taking the best buy entry possible, can be the 1D RSI. A Double Bottom at least (especially as close to the 37.80 Support as possible) would be ideal.
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DAX Testing its All Time High but upside may be limited!DAX had an excellent run since our previous buy signal on March 21 (see chart below) that hit its target yesterday:
The index is right now moments away from hitting the 16300 Resistance, which is the All Time High (ATH) of November 19 2021. The long-term pattern since the end of October 2022 has been a Channel Up and within it, three Megaphone patterns have guided the price to each Higher High before an eventual correction back towards its bottom. The symmetry is evident even on the +10.80% rallies that it has done three times.
The 1D RSI usually hits the 76.00 Resistance and then after a series of Lower Highs, we get the top confirmation to sell. Right now the RSI has just hit the 70.00 overbought barrier. In our opinion the upside is limited to around 16400 but as mentioned, we will only sell after we see Lower Highs forming. On the first Channel Up pull-back, it was the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) that supported, on the second it was the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and this time it should be lower. Our early projection is 15500.
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DAX Megaphone still intact. Breakout and scalping options.DAX is trading in a Megaphone, currently supported by the MA50 (4h).
Scalping is recommended inside this pattern and breakout trading outside it.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the price closes over the Megaphone.
2. Sell if it closes under the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 16200 (+12.17% buy leg).
2. 15200 (lower Support Zone).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is inside a clear Rectangle whose bottom and top can help with scalping inside the Megaphone.
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Past trading plan:
DAX: Holding the 4H MA50. Accumulating for the next rally.DAX is trading on a Rising Wedge pattern inside a Channel Up, whose 4H RSI just hit the 1 month HL trendline. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 58.718, MACD = 105.900, ADX = 38.304) hence the long term trend upwards.
As long as the 4H MA50 holds, our target remains the top of the Rising Wedge (TP = 16,100).
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DAX This wave still has room to riseDAX has gone a long way since our buy recommendation 2 weeks ago (see chart below). The technicals on the 1D time frame are firmly bullish (RSI = 60.575, MACD = 68.200, ADX = 31.986) and the RSI in particular is out of its Buy Zone and approaching the top of the Channel Down.
The index is trading inside a Channel Up for exactly 5 months and every bullish wave has so far been within 11.50% - 11.85%. If it rises by +11.50% again from the recent bottom, then we are looking at a target price around 16,130. Our TP is 16,000.
It is important to keep in mind the long term dynamics on DAX and what stands out in particular is how perfectly the 1D MA100 supported March's correction. In fact, DAX hasn't closed a 1D candle under the 1D MA100 since October 24th 2022.
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DAX is bullish and going for a Higher HighDAX is trading inside a Channel Up and crossed today over both the 4hour MA200 and the Pivot Zone.
The 4hour MA50 is supporting (same with the RSI being on a Rising Support) and as long as it does, the Channel Up will be going for a Higher High.
Buy and target the 15700 Resistance but keep an eye for an RSI peak near 70.00.
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DAX is starting a long-term rally to 16100DAX is now testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) having rebounded at the bottom of its long-term (since the October 03 Low) Channel Up and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). With the 1D RSI coming out of its Accumulation Zone, as in the previous two Lows (late September and late December 2022), we expect this first long-term wave to hit at least 16100 and the middle (0.5 Fibonacci) of the Channel Up.
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DAX on the strongest bullish momentum of all, targeting 16350.DAX gave us both the sell profit we aimed for last week as well as the break-out buy signal above Resistance 1:
This time we are moving on a higher time-frame (1D), as the index is showing incredible bullish momentum on the long-term. Trading within a Channel Up since the October 03 2022 market bottom, the structure is best viewed using the Fibonacci Channel levels. Since October 21 the 0.236 - 0.382 Fib Zone has been the ultimate buy zone, with the most recent entry being on March 02 right above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
With the 1D RSI coming out of its newest Accumulation Phase, the index can now target the 0.786 - 1.0 Fibonacci Zone, with our long-term target being at 16350.
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DAX: This pattern has caused strong pullbacks since 2012.DAX on the 1W time frame is technically bullish (RSI = 64.556, MACD = 451.600, ADX = 57.699) having avoided a 1W Death Cross as the 1W MA50 is diverging again from the 1W MA200.
Every time it avoided a 1W Death Cross since 2012 while the 1D MA100 crossed above the 1W MA50, DAX has always pulled back to at least the 1W MA50 (three cases out of the four even hit the 1W MA200). The 1W MA50 is at the moment at 13,866. Due to the circumstances we see a softer landing on the 1D MA100 however, which is at 14,315 but rising every day rapidly.
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DAX Sell this rejection, buy on the 1D MA50.DAX (DE40) got rejected on its third Lower High within this 2 week Channel Down. We are taking this sell but first target is on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Triangle and only if that breaks, we will extend selling to complete a -2.18% decline on the new Lower Low of the Channel Down.
The RSI's Rectangle shows the best short-term buy entry. The most optimal long-term though will be on the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), regardless of that being on Support 1 or 2. That will be our buy entry, targeting Resistance 1 (15480) and Resistance 2 (15655) on the long-term.
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DAX One last push lower for a bottom.DAX has had the strongest 1D bearish candle today since December 15 2022. That was the candle that accelerated the correction from the Higher High Zone (red zone) of the long-term Channel Up to the Buy Zone (green zone). With the Channel Up pattern starting on the October 03 2022 market bottom and remaining valid up to now, this Buy Zone has been the most optimal long entry of the past four months.
We look at two indicators for buying, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D RSI hitting the bottom of its Rectangle pattern and entering the Accumulation Mode. A -6.50% correction doesn't have to necessarily be completed as in late December. Our long-term target is the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level, which an early projection giving us a 16350 Target.
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DAX: Rising inside Channel Up. Sell when RSI overbought.DAX is trading inside a Channel Up on bullish technicals both for 4H (RSI = 58.830 , MACD = 35.400, ADX = 33.092) and 1D (RSI = 65.538, MACD = 212.600, ADX = 27.945). 1D is stronger as its pattern is a Bullish Megaphone for the past 1 month. Basically we are now expanding on the breakout signal given on Monday as shown below.
The Channel Up rises on every bullish leg by +1.80%, thus we are long (TP = 15,690). We will not short its top but rather wait for the more clear signal of the 4H RSI getting overbought above 70.000, which has happened all of its three times with the price hitting the top of the Bullish Megaphone. Then we will go short, aiming at the dashed line (TP = 15,600) which was hit every time the Megaphone printed a Higher High.
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DAX on a potential medium-term correction.Since our analysis last month, DAX (DE40) hit our target by rising more than +12.50%, as the previous rally fractal within the +4 month Channel Up suggested. Right now the index is loosely supported by the 4H MA100 (red trend-line), having already broken it 3 times, but managed to close all of them back above it. As on December 06 2022, a 1D candle close below the 4H MA100 could trigger the start of a medium-term correction back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). A -6.50% pull-back from the top can even put the price slightly below the 1D MA50 but still on the 0.236 Channel Fibonacci retracement level.
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DAX on a thin thread eyeing the 1D MA50DAX is rebounding after holding the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and remains overbought on daily. The similarities with the November - December fractal evident and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) untested since January 03, we expect a sharp short-term correction to it, if the 4H MA50 breaks again. The long-term pattern remains a Channel Up since the October 02 market bottom so our perspective is to take advantage of such short-term pull-backs and buy for the long-term.
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