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XIV

SP500I think we will get a little more of a drop early next week before we push up. This consolidation is taking a long time so I have to adjust the target accordingly. I read a very brief but probably very true tweet about end of year profit selling. This guy said that there will be minimal selling for the end of 2017 because people are probably going to hold off until January 2018 to take advantage of the tax cuts. Well that makes sense. There is a small short term bullish divergence forming. We still have not resolved the long term very large bearish divergence but that might happen in January like that guy said. Time will tell. Be ready.
SP:SPXLong
by SalN
5
SP500 "Possible short in two days"There was a massive volume spike on Friday and we are due for another intermediate cycle low. Usually that means that a top will occur a couple days later. I think I will watch the RSI. There is a massive bearish divergence from many months ago. Once the RSI reaches the red line, I feel it would be safe to short this. This could be the correction many have been waiting for. I am also looking for price to reach the blue line 2691 range. I don't think we will reach 2700. That's just a guess. I think the big banks know that everyone is waiting for that mark. Tough call in such a bullish market but it can't go up forever without a correction here and there. GL
SP:SPXShort
by SalN
9
SP500 "2700 Anyone?"With the price breaking through that blue upper trend line on Thursday, I am considering that a crack in the armor. We still have a week and a half to go before the rate hike on the 13th and so it appears that we can reach the 2700 range. Especially with all that dip buying that happened today. Yep...the Central banks really want a rate hike so they are not going to allow the market to start correcting too early. Today was a perfectly good example of that. At 2700 it appears that we could get a 11.3% correction. All the way down to that very very long term black trend line. After that, I have said it all along, I think we push much much higher in the markets. Sentiment is neutral and with a 11% market correction, that will hurt sentiment even more. We have to get into a true bubble with sentiment reaching extremes. We are not there yet. Not even close. DOW 30,000 by maybe Mid 2018? Maybe even 40,000 by 2020. Now that is what I would call a bubble. And what will follow is going to be more catastrophic then we have ever experienced or thought possible in these modern times. So in the mean time, lets make as much money as we can and prepare for the bubble top. Hopefully by then Gold will be down at $600 or less. That way we can easily know where to put all our money. GL
SP:SPXShort
by SalN
3
SP500 "Daily Cycle in progress"SO I do not see this as the start of that correction that we have been talking about. Now that we have gotten into November AND now that it appears that the rate hike in December is at 100%,....and the Fed absolutely wants a rate hike....I am thinking that this monster will not be allowed to make its correction until the rate hike. The Fed wants the hike and wont let the market tank. If the market tanks early then they cant raise the rates. That being said, we are very late in this daily cycle. I see this as the end of the daily cycle in the next few days. For there to be a large market correction that we have been hearing about for months, it cant be in a far far right translated cycle. So that means that we go up soon and probably make new highs and a far left translated cycle. I heard one Elliot wave pro say he thinks it will top possible as high as 2660 with the red arrow path. We shall see how strong the bounce is up until the December 13th rate hike for that final high to be made. That's it.. Short and sweet. On a side note. Ugaz will be a buy once again soon. Probably under $9.30 and the start of a very strong 3rd wave. big gains ahead for that.
TVC:SPXLong
by SalN
5
Using a "meaningless" ratio to identify areas of support for XIVSo, I had this strange idea: I took XIV (long volatility ETF) and divided its value by the corresponding value of QLD (x2 NAS100 ETF) to create this chart. To my knowledge the daily value of XIV is calculated based on the price of ES options, so there shouldn't be any relationship with QLD, yet this chart has a clear structure and beauty to it. It's peculiar how the region around 1.2 used to serve as support in 2013 and first half of 2014, then became resistance in 2015, and then again support in 2017
X
by adammska
Volatility (VIX) - 1D - The range gets SMALLER, the risk GREATERIf you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message or comment! Underlying: VIX Time frame: 1D What Has Happened So Far: For anyone that is interested in seeing the FULL post click here. I have linked it because the post is far too long to put here. What am I Looking to Happen: As we know that the VIX historic average is 18.75 since 2004 we know that current levels are WELL below that, so we can look at opportunities to buy. To do this I looked at what the MACD has been doing. As you can see on the chart even the MACD has been narrowing which tells me there will be a break out. As this product (VIX) we are looking at EXPLODES to the upside, a lot of people could get hurt in this and the stock market. I feel that once price begins to break out of this range you will see a huge increase. Personally I am shorting the stock market rather than buying or selling VIX options as the VIX can do more damage there. I have linked my stock index ideas below. Target Profit: NA as this is to show how fear is being under-valued Stop Loss: NA as this is to show how fear is being under-valued If you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message or comment!
TVC:VIXLong
by SocialTrading
SP 500 SPX SPY "October Market Correction??"SO I have been hearing a lot about the long awaited (and very past due) market correction that analysts have been anticipating since August. SO lets assume they are correct and that there will be a large market correction in October. What can the charts help predict. Well first of all, a true ICL needs to break the low of the last DCL. Since it appears we have made a double 3, 4 wave count, I believe that we would have to correct at least below that red zone. And with a decent correction, I just don't believe that we will break the very long term black uptrend line which was established at the 2009 bottom. So I measured the small wave count for what I believe is a wave 5 and as you can see, a full 100% move up of wave 1 would take wave 5 to 2552 range. But that would only account for an approximate 8% correction to that black trend line. (being that we are so so late for the ICL correction, I am expecting a swift correction to last no more than a couple weeks). But if we are to have that 10% correction that they have been talking about then that would mean that the SP500 would have to climb just a bit higher to closer to 2600. I am actually kind of hoping for that correction because that would be a great and easy buy the dip opportunity before we get into the euphoric bubble phase of this market rally. GL By the way, a full 10% correction would mean that the sp500 would have to reach 2602. And based on the current trajectory of price movement, that wouldn't happen until the very end of October or early November. Otherwise, an 8% correction could start next week as that is the estimate for price to reach that 2550 zone. Let us also not forget about the very large bearish divergence that exists currently on the RSI. IT also exist on the weekly RSI.
TVC:SPXShort
by SalN
5
VIX (Volatility) - 1D - Average Historic PriceIf you like this idea leave a like and follow me to get all of my updates :) I would love to talk to you so send me a message! PLEASE NOTE I HAVE REPOSTED THIS AS I HAVE A LOT MORE FOLLOWERS For Full Post Click Here Present fear of future uncertainty is over-stated. What do I mean by this? People's fear of what the future might hold is always exaggerated. Do you remember the time you were going to go on your first date and you were petrified you would find a way to ruin it? Well it most likely didn't end up that bad and you probably went on many more; unless you were scarred for life. This fact applies to us all around the world and in particular, the financial markets. Granted, there are exceptions to this for example extremely low volatility environments. We obtained data from 2004 through to 2017 and looked at some of the important data that included VIX open, close, high and low for each day. The first set of data we looked at was the average percentage increase/decrease each day. This was done by taking the close of each day, subtracting the open, dividing it by the open and then multiplying by 100. For example; (C - O) / O * 100 15 - 13  / 13 * 100 = 15.38% increase * Using all of the data points since 2004, the average change each day was -0.42%. We then looked at the distribution of VIX highs each day to see the highest points. We discovered; . Very few highs occurred under 10 . The majority were between 10 and 20 . From 20 - 80+ we saw a significant decrease in the number of occurrences. 10+ Occurs 99.99855% 20+ Occurs 34.94% 30+ Occurs 9.54% 40+ Occurs 4.67% 50+ Occurs 2.03% 60+ Occurs 1.04% 70+ Occurs 0.46% 80+ Occurs 0.18% As we know that on average the VIX declines in value by -0.42% we can factor that into our decision making. Let's use an example to illustrate this; John is looking for a security he can put $250,000 into and has two options 1. VIX options (a volatility product) or 2. the S&P 500. VIX options on average lose -0.42% a day and the S&P 500 gains 0.04% a day. Straight away the S&P 500 looks a lot more attractive than the VIX. Although the daily gains in the VIX tend to be a lot bigger, the overall decay will eat away at your profits. So how can traders and investors make money from VIX? By trading VIX options when the prices reach a point considered overvalued. As we also know that the average price of VIX from 2004 - 2017 is around 18.75 and assume that the VIX price is mean reverting we can determine prices significantly under 18.75 are undervalued and prices significantly over 18.75 are overvalued. This then begs the question, how do you determine what is significantly overvalued and what is not. In order to see what is overvalued we can look at standard deviations. Standard deviations show how certain data points differ from the mean of those data points. In this case a 1 standard deviation would contain roughly 68% of the data points. 2 standard deviations would contain 95% and 3 standard deviations would contain 99.7%. So from this we know that if prices go into the 2 or 3 standard deviation bracket, we could see the next data points move back into that 1 standard deviation bracket. Please keep in mind though, VIX when it starts to increase in value does so at a phenomenal speed.
TVC:VIX
by SocialTrading
5
SP500 SPY "Looking for the correction to start last week of JulyMy timing is slightly off but with the recent breakout, it appears that my wave count is on the money. We are in wave 5 of a larger 1 of this bull markets final Wave 5. I hope that did not confuse you. So I do not think this will measure the same as wave 3 which would take it to around 2510 ish. And I am looking for it to be a little bigger than wave 1, which would take this to 2483ish. So maybe we touch 2500 before starting a steep larger wave 2 correction. I am looking at a little over a 9% market correction down to the long term trend line. It should end sometime in August. Then we should get a nice long wave 3 rally.
TVC:SPX
by SalN
6
SP500 "almost finished with a large wave 1"I have not posted a SP500 chart for a while so I thought I would show how its going. So far its following along with my prediction. As you can see, if we do reach 2500, then a 10% market correction would bring it down to the bottom of the large channel trend line. I may try TVIX in June. I am pretty sure we are about to finish a very large Wave 1 of our mega Wave 5. Mega because this wave analysis extends way back to before the 1929 crash. Which was the end of a Mega wave 2. Sorry if you do not like my use of the word Mega. We are, IMO, working on a mega wave 5. I am not expecting it to top until late 2019 at around the 3000 mark. And you know what comes after 5 mega waves up right. An equally proportional mega ABC correction. If I am correct, then this will be life altering for all of us for many many many years. I hate to think it but, there will probably be a big ass war if everyone is hurting that much.
TVC:SPXLong
by SalN
2
SP500, SPY - The End is nearSP500 Daily Chart Did you like my title? "The end is near". BUT NOT YET. I'll explain. First on this daily chart I would like to point out that we dropped a little bit over the last couple weeks. The hidden bearish divergence on the RSI below played out. But as you can also see, we have a larger hidden bullish divergence that has formed. Look at the last hidden bullish divergence and you can see how we made new highs shortly after. Well this divergence is a little bigger. So I do think we will be ramping up hear very soon and I do think we can reach somewhere around the 2500 range (to complete this larger 1st wave) before the larger corrective 2nd wave begins. Yes, only wave 2, not the END. That comes later. So lets look at some possible key events that could trigger the wave 2 correction. (and the correction should be a decent 10% drop). 1st, I do not think the FED will raise rates in May. Even if the market is up to 2500 at that point. The reason being is that I think the fear of the French election will keep the FED at bay. So there is a 2 round vote in France. The first one is April 23rd and the second is May 7th. I think the Brexit and Trump affect will win the day in France and Le Pen will be victorious. But the media wont say that. So that could have a similar affect as Brexit did. And thereby bring a little shock to the Markets. But that wont last long and we will start a hefty larger wave 3 of wave 5. I will post my Monthly or weekly chart next to show you what I see is happening. This market has structure and it is playing out like I see it.
TVC:SPXLong
by SalN
3
SP500 March 5th 2017Weekly Chart I just thought I would do an update to where I think we are in the broader markets. 1st I thought I would post this weekly chart so you can see my count as to when the "BIG CRASH" might (might take place). I am thinking not until the next presidential election. That's just a guess. Nothing special about it. But I think the Trump policies, once allowed to happen, will be great and very hyper bullish for the markets. That, combined with the flight capital leaving Europe which will inevitably make it to our markets as Europe implodes will propel the market super high. Who knows, I might be conservative on my chart. Time will tell. I think this spring we will get that correction that some people have been talking about. But before we do that larger pullback (which would be a wave 2 of the large wave 5) I think we will see the sp500 reach approximately 2500. I do think that we will get a rate hike in March but then, just like last time, we should shoot higher to that 2500 mark. This would encourage the Fed to raise again. The Fed likes to hike if the market shows it can handle it. For example, If we crashed down to 2000 with the March rate hike then I absolutely not believe they would raise again for a long long time because that would show weakness in the market. I will put up the daily next to show what I mean.
TVC:SPXLong
by SalN
SP500 Rate Hike Feb 1st ?? I do believe soI have been giving it some thought and I have a feeling that there will be a rate hike on February 1st and I will list my reasons. #1) We are currently in the micro wave 5 which wont last until the March 14th Fed meeting. 2) The CME group has a FED Watch tool that gives a percentage for the likelihood for a rate hike for this year.....and for Feb 1st we are at 96%. #3) the RSI is showing a good sized bearish divergence that you can see below. #4) we have not had a DCL low since November 4th and we are about due. #5) the market barely took a hit at the last rate hike and now the DOW just broke 20,000 which usually lets the FED know that the market can handle a rate hike. So then, if they do hike what could be expected for a drop in the SP500? If my wave count is correct and we are currently finishing wave 3...and this correction would be a wave 4, then we shouldn't be able to drop below the bold black line with the blue arrow which is 2194 max. But a more likely target for me would be the 100 DMA which should be approximately at 2210 - 2215 range by that time. Last little tid bit> what looks reasonable for a target price by February 1st. Well, you will know on that day or the day before but I am thinking that we push up to just over 2300, maybe up to 2310. Which we are almost there. GL
TVC:SPX
by SalN
sp500 One more Bullish week? 2298SP500 Daily Chart It appears that we are in our micro wave 5 move to complete this bigger wave 3. That's how I see it anyways. And I think we can make it to almost 2300 before the DCL rollover. It just never seems to be able to make it all the way through those milestones marks the first time. If you zoom out you will see my little cycle indicators and if you zoom out further you can see the larger cycle indicators. But these seems to shift overs the years. But it appears to be about right for the present. I posted the RSI and you can see that even if we do make it to 2300 range, we are likely to have a bearish divergence. What is really scary is if you jump to the monthly charts, you can see a huge bearish divergence on the RSI from back in early 2015 to the present. When that will play out is a guess but I still think we climb to 3000 in late 2019 before the crash. And I think the November 2019 Presidential Election will be the Catalyst. That's is just my crazy long shot opinion. So looking for at least one more up week for the Markets. Dow will break 20,000 this time. Its ready, I can feel it.
TVC:SPXLong
by SalN
SP500 Vix start of 2017Daily chart for SP500 So I saw someone else's idea about wave count with the SP500 and he may be correct. I was always wondering about the correction we had that ended in November. As you can see it dipped well below the August 15th peak. That is not suppose to happen if that was a Wave 4 corrective move. So another person had an idea that the end of the Brexit dip was nothing but the end of a very large correction from the previous large long rally. So I moved the wave count as it is now shown on the chart in blue. That would mean that we are just starting wave 4 correction which shouldn't be as deep (percentage) as wave 2 was. So that would bring this correction to most likely the purple line channel and at best we should not break the bold black horizontal line. A break of that black line would once again nullify this wave count. Not to mention, we are only due for a short term cycle correction "DCL" and not due for a ICL for a couple months. That being said, I am going to guess that we have the next rate hike on May 2nd which should help trigger the ICL to start. I am currently in TVIX right now for a small gain. I do not see this dip lasting much longer this week. I do not think I will revisit the VIX until we are due for a bigger better drop in the SP500 DCL in March.
TVC:SPX
by SalN