AUS200 - projected path for the next 4 months (to Feb 2023)If we get a bullish run from here (@ 6670 now) for the next few days to see upwards of 6900 trade, then I see the following projected path all the way to Feb 2023 where the final hit of 6400 can happen and a sustained BULL run can start for the rest of the year
Just putting it our here for now to follow it on the DAILY Timeframe
S&P/ASX 200
AUS200-bearish scenario "IF" recent run was a DEAD CAT BOUNCEAUS200 made a low of 6401 on 3rd Oct 2022 & bounced up by more than 400 pts to print a high of 6811 on 5th Oct 2022
But what if this was just a dead cat bounce and not an actual reversal from the longer term downtrend? In that case, I see the next 2 weeks to trade as per the path shown in the chart - time frame is 4 HOURS and not all end points are supposed to be met.
INVALID if we break above 6850 in a day or two.
XJO Closing up above swing high trend positivesharing my view on XJO ,
previous close above , i have been sharing my view earlier
this week due to holidays sharing my brief view the trend is positive and moved above our previous swing high on weekly basis.
🎥ASX:XJO - Australia main headline index analysis video 🎥ASX:XJO
I am sharing with you video on quick XJO - Australia main headline index analysis video
XJO Short - Potential Traditionals RetracementIntroduction
Date: 02/12/21
Time: 11:00 AEST
Topic: Traditional markets bearish
Forecast : A drop down to about to the red weekly supply zone (currently encroaching on it). Will be watching closely to see whether we reverse and gear up again, or are in for more prolonged pain
Summary
The traditional markets seem like they are experiencing some painful bleeding.
Since the March 2020 Covid dump, the world economies bounced back rather aggressively. That said I believe there is a growing disconnect between the Delta variant (and potentially the new Omnicron variant) and the economy. Along with this, there seems to be more division within the world relating to the vax, mandates, politics etc. Countries worldwide are having more aggressive postures towards one another (Russia-Ukraine, Chine-Taiwan & Israel-Iran). China has had to cut back on electricity usage and Europe has stated that over the winter months their citizen might experience. Russia has made new gas deals and is limiting output to certain European countries. America's days seem numbered under the current president with all-time-low ratings and America is experiencing increased rioting, looting and racial divisions. Worldwide inflation is seemingly skyrocketing and concerning, with the FED having printed roughly 40% of the global USD money supply since the start of 2020. There has been a large increase in the purchase of precious metals by banks and citizens which makes me think this isn't over.
Whether things will get better, or we head into more prolonged pain with a potential for a Black Swan event, time will tell. If you have an equities portfolio, I would consider either selling your position into cash, hedging your portfolio with inverse ETFs or long puts (that way you avoid selling out of your positions and incurring CGT), or a more risky play is entering a short position.
I am waiting for a proper bounce out of the supply (turned demand) zone and confirmation from news and the algorithms, before I enter long again
About Me:
Starting off as a typical retail investor, I entered the trading space in 2017 and proceeded to buy bitcoin as it was going up thinking the moon was the limit. Safe to say I was wrong and learnt very quickly that 'What goes up, must also come down at some point'. Since then I did a proper trading course where I learnt the art of Technical Analysis and have never looked back. Increasing my knowledge from reading a tonne of books, listening to podcasts as well as reading and researching other traders has really benefited my trading skills and style. I am now a full-time equities & cryptotrader at one of the first firms specialising in cryptocurrencies. I am also a coach, teach and mentor to other like-minded individuals who want to succeed within the trading space. If you want to learn more about TA, trading and be financially independent, then let me know and I will help you get there!
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Flight Centre Bullish Trend ?FLT is one of most populer Stock to trading, now we look at the chart the trend is bullish, how to catch the bottom? now i look you can have a plan buy on weakness at 17.65 area bottoming, if reverse, that will going up to close the gap at 35.50. Are you have a same idea? , Comment in below, The Story still good for FLT because Australia will be reopen flight for international on end of november or December, so follow this story and take your Profit!!
Disclaimer On
ASX200 Cash Index : XJO, A Fresh Perspective.For the simple related fundamental reason : currency devaluation.
One must remain structurally Bullish on Australian Dollar priced assets.
Single stock selection can prove challenging in such conditions, makes life
easier for the market to pick the winners.
ASX:XJO
OANDA:AU200AUD
ASX:STW
Detailed Chart's to follow below -
XJO Zmm's
STW : ASX200 ETF
AU200AUD CFD : Trades 23hrs/5days weekly.
China to outperform Australia from here?IZZ China ETF vs XJO (ASX 200)
Relative performance looks to oscillate in a range. This could be a bottoming for China vs Australia.
Will the markets meltdown and hammer the bulls as yields rallyThe action has been very heavy this week and major indexes have been pressured lower. There is a lot for bulls to think about and many will be getting nervous. Will the FED come to the rescue again??....and will the Dip Buyers provide support again. In the video I take a look at my key markets and how I am approaching the current market action. I look at US 10-year bonds, the USD, SP500, DOW, Nasdaq and the ASX200.
XJO Short (ASX200)Clear head and shoulders and in line with cycle count on SPX500. December target zone identified.
Where to for the XJO - is it time to go short?I note that there is a lot of noise in the financial media currently around potential collapses in the Chinese property market and various other factors, but let's screen that out and have a look at what the XJO chart is showing.
From the chart, it looks reasonably apparent that a downtrend has started forming, starting from the most recent high of 13 August. The chart shows that following the open on 14 August, the market failed to make a new high and started trending downwards for the following week.
Fairly solid resistance was then found at around 7460 on 19 August with several retests until around 9 September (between these dates the market seemed to be trading in a fairly tight 60 point range). On 9 September the support level was broken and for the following week or so (until 17 September), the previous support level providing resistance, with another support offered around 7360 (the close on 9 September).
Today's movements seem to pretty clearly break through that resistance, but we'll need to see what tomorrow brings to see if there is confirmation of the breakdown.
Other things that I note on the chart are the 20 and 50 day MAs. To me, it looks like the 20 day MA will likely cross the 50 day in the next day or so (a bearish indicator in my view).
All in all, for me it's not wholesale shorting time until the 200 day MA is broken at around 7000, but there may be opportunities in the short term if you're looking for them.
So in summary what visible to me on the chart
* A clear downtrend indicated by both MA slopes and a pattern of Lower Highs and Lows
* Two clear breakdowns from ranges, with support flipping to resistance.
* MA crosses likely.
Anyway if you've liked this post check out my blog - www.nickthetraderguy.com
XJO - Technicals are saying a bearish move could be on the wayThe XJO chart has a bearish rising wedge formation that is coming to a cross roads. Looks like a break to the downside is highly probable leading into the end of the 20/21 financial year.
Go Long on Graincorp $GNC #gnc #asx #asx200 #ausbizI like the chart pattern here,
technical indicators such as TD Sequential, RSI, MACD are showing signs that bulls are still in control and more upside to come in the coming days/weeks.
Time to add Coles to the watchlist $COLI like the chart pattern here, and it looks like a cup and handle are forming as well.
Go Long on Seven Group Holdings $SVW #asx #asx #ausbizSimilar to Graincorp,
I like the chart pattern here,
technical indicators such as TD Sequential, RSI, MACD are showing signs that bulls are still in control and more upside to come in the coming days/weeks.
Time to add CSL to the watchlist $CSL #asx #asx200 CSL is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
Technical indicators MACD and RSI are looking good for an uptrend breakout in the coming days or weeks.
Time to add Xero to the watchlist $XROThis stock has been trading sideways since the start of the year,
If we can break out of this chart pattern and to the upside, it's a buy for me.
Go Long on mining stocks $FMG Fortescue MetalsBroke out today, I do expect $FMG to go higher in the short to mid-term just like BHP.
Risk Management - Tom DeMark TD 9 Still in Play ASX200 $XJO Was 7406 the top for the short term?
Was the breakout this week a bull trap?
Technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI are still with the bears.
If we close below the 21 daily moving average, time to reduce position size and risk until we can close above 7406 again.
Still bearish on ASXXJO looking to tumble soon. Lagging diagonal in white is complete, married with decreasing momentum on RSI, tells me we are due for one. It is unclear for how long roughly though. Lagging diagonals usually herald an intense drop and a complex correction. We shall see, as we live in unprecedented times financially. Goals in purple.
None of the above is financial advice, please do your own research - your trades are your trades.
Elliott Wave View: ASX 200 (XJO) Looking to Complete Wave 5Elliott Wave view in ASX 200 (XJO) suggests the rally from February 1, 2021 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from February 1 low, wave 1 ended at 6938 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 6648.6. The Index resumes higher in wave 3 towards 7172.8 and pullback in wave 4 ended at 6919.4. Wave 5 is currently in progress and the internal subdivides into another 5 waves of lesser degree. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 7056.4 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 6999.6. Wave (iii) ended at 7115.2, dips in wave (iv) ended at 7090.1 and final leg wave (v) of ((i)) ended at 7136.4.
Wave ((ii)) pullback then ended at 7082.4 and the Index resumes higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)) low, wave (i) ended at 7203.3 and wave (ii) pullback ended at 7131.9. Wave (iii) ended at 7309.4 and wave (iv) ended at 7267.6. Near term, Index can see 1 more leg higher to end wave (v) of ((iii)), then it should pullback in wave ((iv)) before turning higher 1 more time to complete wave ((v)) of 5. This should also end cycle from February 1, 2021 low and then Index can see larger pullback.
XJO - no time to panicThe ASX has just broken its ATH on Monday at 7172 (although I'm told if you add in dividends, we're actually quite a bit higher). However, the moves today (and likely tomorrow judging by the US futures), will likely cause some concerns amongst traders. Its a relatively big move (at least for the last couple of months), but in the scheme of things, today is just 1% down.
From what I'm seeing the XJO just slightly above Monday open and around the high point of Friday. Nothing to worry about here.
In addition, the overall trend is still up and the Bollinger bands are starting to expand again after tightening last week.
TO me the ASX actually looks like it has broken out from a range it was stuck in over most of April, this could just be profit taking or a pullback after a big move yesterday. Although I suspect that it's entirely being driven out of fear arising from the US Markets.
All in all, I think these are pretty bullish markers currently.
I'm watching it closely and I think the telling point will be if the 50 day MA is breached at around 6900.
Anyway, happy trading and if you like this post, check out my blog at www.nickthetraderguy.com.
Cheers,
Nick the Trader Guy
Sell in MAY and go away? ASX 200Looking at this monthly chart the price of the ASX 200 INDEX shows we could have a drop in the market for a few months at least starting in May.
The supertrend monthly is down and the price will have to fight at as resistance if it wants to move higher. However historically it has been rejected and a drop lower occurred before it actually climbed over it.
I have circled the area of the 2008 crash as the comparison is similar. The drop happened and the climb was fast until it was near the supertrend and it tested it twice before the market went lower. It actually took 5 years before the market was higher. I believe we are in a similar boat now.
