Elliott Wave View: Rally in ASX 200 (XJO) Should ExtendAfter forming the low on 3.23.2020 low, ASX 200 (XJO) starts a new leg higher. Short term Elliott Wave chart below suggests that the rally from 3.23.2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Up from 3.23.2020 low, wave ((1)) ended at 5563.6 and pullback in wave ((2)) ended at 5100.7. Index then resumes higher in wave ((3)) and shows a nest. Up from wave ((2)) low at 5100.7, wave (1) ended at 5549.1 and dips to 5169.6 ended wave (2). Wave (3) is currently in progress as another 5 waves of lesser degree.
Up from wave (2) low at 5169.6, wave 1 ended at 5489.5 and dips to 5303.3 ended wave 2. Index then resumes higher in wave 3 towards 5922. Expect wave 4 pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the next leg higher. As far as pivot at 5300.3 low stays intact, expect the Index to extend higher. Potential minimum target for the Index is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from 3.23.2020 low towards 6268 – 6545.
S&P/ASX 200
Long Term Investing - Here is a buy setup in Woolworths $WOW Once again, Woolworths is at the 200 moving average on the 2 Day chart with a buy signal activated on the MACD indicator (Top of chart).
The last two times this has provided a great buying opportunity for long term investors. Could history repeat itself?
I am not holding $WOW and I will wait for confirmation to add $WOW to my portfolio.
For me, the confirmation is when we can break with a strong buying volume and close above the GREEN line.
In contrast, when Woolworths drop and close below the purple line then this buy setup is NOT ACTIVATED.
Here is a buy setp in TPG Telecom $TPM TPG broke out of the triangle and a confirmed double bottom.
The price is above all moving averages and now acting as support.
MACD, RSI and DMI are looking good as well.
I went long this morning with a stop loss just below the 200-day moving average (red line)
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TPG Telecom Limited is an Australian telecommunications and IT company that specialises in consumer and business internet services as well as mobile telephone services. As of August 2015, TPG is the second largest internet service provider in Australia and is the largest mobile virtual network operator.
ASX 200 Index - Short to medium term price chart analysis.ASX 200 Index - Short to medium term price chart analysis.
My views and price target for Aus 200 Index remain the same as per my last analysis on May 5th. www.tradingview.com
The Index reached my second target at 5480.0 and retreated to the first target before heading back up on Friday's session, closing at 5404.80. The short to the medium-term trend is still bullish as long as it remains within the uptrend price channel, as indicated on the 30 minutes price chart.
A new price pattern that appeared on the US major Indices is duplicated on this chart, which is the longterm price channel supporting the price action, This could act as a strong support base for future price movements. However, if prices fall below the longterm price channel, we could properly see the Index head south.
The critical price points to keep an eye in next week's session are estimated at the following area:
Support - 5380.0, 5305.0, and 5164.0
Resistance - 5484.0, 5617.0, and 5698.0
ASX200 daily- Rising Wedge+failed to break 38.2% Fib retracemASX200 daily- Rising Wedge + Failed to break 38.2% Fib retracement.
According to Thomas Bulkowski "Rising Wedges, especially for downward breakouts, are some of the worst performing chart patterns. Downward breakouts have an unacceptably high failure rate and small post breakout declines. Also, throwbacks and pullbacks occur 72% of the time."
Breakout for Rising Wedges: Can be in either direction, 60% of the time downwards.
XJO and the BOTH SITES.As we can see, we don't have a really clear entry yet, but anyway we will wait for it! if this wedge decides to break for downside we will wait the retest in the demand zone to make the best entry, the same in the topside so be focused and put some alarms in the both possibilities
XJO Bearish Wedge PatternI haven't seen anyone else post it so thought I'd give it a go, the rising wedge pattern is a common formation in bear markets, the closer price moves within the formation to the apex point, the more likely a breakdown will occur and we are close this point as seen in the chart... We have been respecting this pattern really since the start of the rally which really seems to be looking like it has run out of steam (only slightly higher highs since the 31/03) we have only added on an extra 3% since 31/03.
Even after today's surge, which was looking very strong until it reached the top of the wedge range and acted as resistance.
SPX 500 also has the same pattern and I'm convinced that a big move down is coming perhaps near the end of the formation, which looks to be lining up with a challenge of the 50MA on the daily TF, which may eventuate next week or the week after.
Wait for confirmation of course before entering a position.
XJO "Dead Cat Bounce"outlined are major S/R levels, I am looking for a "dead cat bounce play if the down side momentum can reverse from this level over the next few weeks.
I would like to see either two scenarios play out rejection at 5980 or consolidation above 5980. Currently looking for longs if we can find a trend to the upside as a relief rally, entering short from this level is high risk as we may see a short squeeze if we do get a relief rally to R1.
FLT, Can we get a "Dead Cat Bounce" or a Rejection of S1?S1 looking for either break up ("dead cat bounce") or break down at this level, if the XJO rallies and has a Rejection at 5980 FLT is a short and will be in trouble. Or if we break S1 i'll be playing short till S2 as FLT has all the Fundamentals against it at this point of time.
Short APT Half position short on at 18.47
Overall market (XJO, DJI and SPX is now closing daily candles red)
We also have global bad news catalyst of covid19 out break in the US I see next weeks trading session as a short, as confidence in this overall market rally should weaken.
APT hit a daily exhaustion after a solid rally, I am now playing this as a "dead cat bounce"
Half my usual trade position is on due to taking two losses in a row this week, I have chosen to size down on this entry as I am holding weekend exposure for a possible gap up on Monday open.
The stops are wide on this trade as i'll be adding size on if it tries to re test the previous high on the daily and if a rejection is confirmed i'll add more and tighten my stop.
XJO indecision ....A newbie thought on which directions XJO would take next week ...
1. retraces to 4992.2 to level with left shoulder
2. rise to complete (B) wave to 6165.3 (Fib 0.618 level) distance equals top shoulder to neckline & probably just under 55 days SMA level
3. going down to complete (C) wave to probably Fib 1.618 level of 2930
any pro tips welcomed :) & Stay Safe !
XJO ASX200 Update - Bear Flag Pattern We have gone up 20%+ since 23 March, this is likely to be an oversold bounce or "dead cat bounce" in technical terms.
Since 90% of Shops are still close, Corona Virus is still in the headlines around the world and death rates are not showing signs of slowing down.
Therefore, it is very unlike that the bottom is in and we are exiting this bear market in the short term.
By looking at the short term chart, we can see a BEAR FLAG pattern forming for ASX200.
I am expecting lower levels and we drop toward the gap. (4700-4800)