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S&P/ASX 200

Why the ASX200 is going lower (March 25, 2020)The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred on a catastrophic 39% decline over 5 weeks in the ASX200 . Right now we're seeing the beginning of a bullish retracement as negative sentiments start to ease globally. But with most market crashes historically, nothing ever falls in a straight line. There are always retracements in a down market, otherwise known as dead cat bounces. This chart shows the ASX200 during the Global Financial Crisis ( GFC ) The full declines took an entire year and a half to play out 28 weeks in, the ASX200 had a 50% bullish retracement spanning 8 weeks. Be careful (protect capital) - wait for a solidified foundation before going long - don't try to catch falling knives.
ASX:XJOShort
by TomUnderwood
1
When will the Bounce happen? ASX The market looks like in complete meltdown, but for the short term the market is due for a bounce. 38% drop from peak to trough. Indicators: RSI, BFI, StochRSI overdone Though StochRSI still showing time for more downturn. So looking at a 2 week timeframe for that bounce which should be about 20%. But the weekly moving averages lets us know we are at the beginning of the fall. If we look at 2007-2009 there was an original drop of 26% that took about 5-6 months. This current drop about 1 month so 5-6 x quicker. Than we had another 46% drop that took 9-10 months.
ASX:XJO
by GlobalTrader_
My worst case scenario for ASX200 $XJO Hello investors and traders, Warren Buffett famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." I have seen this quote everywhere on social media last few days/week. Retailer investors are being so GREEDY right now and buying stocks because it is cheap...This tells me we are nowhere near the bottom. Learning from bitcoin, market bottoms when people are in depression and give up on investing because they are scared or have no money left. As mentioned last week, we need to close above the 200 MA LOW on the monthly chart in order to have a chance of a quick recovery (4885). Currently we are below this line, so let's prepare and assume we have close below this. Here is my WORST CASE scenario for ASX 200. We start the 3-9 TD sequential correction phase and head towards 2500. The catalyst for this to happen is an Australian recession or even a depression. What would you do if this is the case? What are you going to do to protect your portfolio/wealth?
ASX:XJOShort
by johninvest17
1
ASX200 $XJO Are we heading for a bear market? Good Evening, investors and traders, the Asx200 $XJO went lower again due to market uncertainty with the coronavirus. Last week, I said if we breach the 50 moving average, the first level of support is around 6300-6400. The market went straight down to 6259.9 on Monday and traded sideways between 6259-6500 for a few days and eventually making a new low of 6216 at Friday's close. Next week, I am watching 5800-6100 as a very important area of support. (Currently, I do forecast a dead cat bounce from there) Furthermore, the ASX200 $XJO must close above or near the 200 MA (red line). If not, we are more likely heading for a bear market. One important thing to keep in mind is that the VIX is at a bearish high reading. This tells the mid-large fund organizations such as investment banks and hedge funds to reduce risk and exposure in their long/short portfolios. The good news is that we do have a TD 9 coming for the Vix and this signal a likely top for the short term. Therefore, like the hedge funds and investment banks, I am still only risking a small amount of money in the market. I will go big again WHEN the Vix is below 15 and price level can close above all moving averages. At the moment this price area is around 6666-6800. Glossary: VIX The S&P/ASX 200 VIX Index ( XVI ) calculates the amount of volatility expected in the market over the next 30 days. • High readings indicate uncertainty ( bearish ) 20-30 • Normal readings suggest a slight bullish bias 15-20 • Low readings indicate low volatility ( bullish ) and strong investor confidence. <14.99 Bear market A bear market is a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.
ASX:XJOShort
by johninvest17
2
Technical Analysis Education - Simple TA on Weekly Chart - XJOTechnical Analysis Education: ASX200 (ASX - XJO) Weekly Chart For those of you out there who are new to trading, I like to keep my TA simple and clean. I also like to look at the bigger picture to understand what's happening right now. There can be a lot of confusion when an event such as a market crash happens. We can be reactive and emotional, which is normal, but not helpful. See below the #XJO which tracks the ASX200. On the weekly charts its a clean upward channel, going through from the end of the GFC to now. Strong bullish trend with healthy pullbacks (corrections) You will note that the points value moves within this channel, bouncing as it goes. Some points to note on the chart: 1. We are still in a #bullish market trend on the weekly timeframe (exclude the smaller time frames) 2. We haven't broken any major support levels. 3. We can expect to keep falling at least another 6% to said support. 4. We are still within the key #fibonacci levels of 38.2, 50 and 61.8. These are healthy retracement levels. When to be concerned? If we broke through our trend lines and fell below 5,800 points, we could potentially fall to 5,000 points or lower. Make sure to look at the big picture! Hope this helps
ASX:XJOEducation
by glennleese
2
Here is a buy setup in Spark New Zealand $SPKSpark New Zealand is holding up very well after last week market downturn. We can see Spark New Zealand still above all three rising moving averages at the current time of this post. Technical indicators are showing a strong possibility sell volume are near the end and buyers are coming back in to take control. However, the RSI turned back down today, therefore...a good entry point is when the price can breakout of the previous resistance (yellow line).
ASX:SPKLong
by johninvest17
1
XJO ASX200, close above 20 MA (weekly) to be bullish againThe retracement that I was waiting for came this week and we went down fast and hard. This has made me more bearish than before in the short term. We could see an "exit pump" in the next few trading sessions by big investors/institutions and have the price level jump back toward the 20 moving average before going down further like the past. Therefore, for me to turn bullish on the Australia market again, I need to see the price level close above the 20 moving average on the weekly . "Green line" (around 6900-7000). If we break the 50 MA yellow line: -I will close all my open positions -Be out of the market -so I can buy great companies at a discount once this is over. -I will be watching that box around 6300-6400 as the first level of support. #cashisking. #warrenbuffet #valueinvesting
ASX:XJO
by johninvest17
S&P ASX 200 (XJO): Expect another -2% dive in today's session.The Index fell more than -2% in yesterday's opening trades and took out three support price level as predicted before closing above 6837.00. Today's session is expected to take another dive in the opening trades to around 6752.40 and 6711.00. 6711.00 is a critical price level which could determine the next level of this sell-off, if it fails then we could see the Index enters the next stage which is estimated between 6711.00 and 6409.00
ASX:XJO
by Rotuma
S&P ASX 200(XJO) is expected to dive more than -2%The Index is expected to fall more than -2% in today's opening trades following the sell-off in the Europen and the US trading session. The Index fell and close -2.25% in yesterday's session and suffered one of the worst trading sessions in months. The continuous spread of coronavirus spooked investors and created a mass exit into safe-haven assets which could continue to drive the stock market into a sell-off mode. The Index is expected to fall to around 6837.00 and fluctuate at approximately 6896.00 and 6924.90. Critical price level to watch on this chart is estimated at around 6924.00, 6896.60, 6837.00, and 6752.40
ASX:XJO
by Rotuma