Analyzing Sector Dynamics and Momentum ShiftsIntroduction:
The performance ratio between the communications sector (XLC) and the technology sector (XLK) highlights two of the market's leading sectors, both of which feature overlapping companies. While XLC has been a strong performer for much of the year, it has recently shown signs of weakness, even lagging behind traditionally defensive sectors like utilities. Historically, technology has maintained more consistent strength compared to communications.
Analysis:
Sector Comparison: The XLC-to-XLK ratio helps gauge the relative momentum between these two sectors. Recent weakness in XLC, paired with XLK’s historical stability, suggests a shift in relative strength back toward technology.
Rectangle Pattern: Currently, the XLC-to-XLK ratio displays a rectangle formation, which hints at a potential continuation of the downtrend should the ratio break below the rectangle’s lower trendline. This pattern could indicate that XLC’s outperformance may have peaked for now.
Momentum Shift: Although XLC has shown some recent underperformance, any shift in momentum away from communications is likely to be gradual rather than abrupt, given the current technical setup.
Conclusion:
The relative performance of XLC and XLK is crucial for understanding current sector dynamics and where momentum may be shifting. While technology remains robust, the recent pattern in the XLC-to-XLK ratio suggests a possible weakening in communications. Traders should watch for a break below the rectangle pattern to confirm a continuation of the downtrend. What’s your view on the XLC-to-XLK relationship? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the XLC-to-XLK ratio, the rectangle formation, and the potential breakout areas)
Tags: #Communications #Technology #SectorAnalysis #XLC #XLK #TechnicalPatterns
XLC
SMART MONEY MAKING BIG MOVES! IS NFLX NEXT?
NFLX is shaping up into a great setup. I'm watching for the price to stabilize in the 720-723.5 range, and if we see buyers step in there, it could be on its way to new all-time highs.
We ran with the 715C 0DTE on Friday, and it's worth keeping an eye on heading into next week.
If the market pushes higher, NFLX has a higher probability of breaking new highs.
Carefull tech here comes industrialsProvides online manufacturing services which enable manufactured custom parts to be sold via xometry.com
NASDAQ:XMTR is forming a base just after it broke out a polarity zone around $30
The AMEX:XLI is making new highs along with AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLC but the leaders are showing signs of exhaustion and some rotation to small cap might be underway
The AMEX:IWO is close of breaking out of a huge base
Lets wait and see!
AT&T: Dark Cloud Cover at Resistance ZoneAT&T has formed a Dark Cloud Cover after being rejected from the upperbound of the Resistance Zone and is now trading below the 200SMA and 800EMA with Hidden Bearish Divergence forming on the MACD. If it plays out, I think we could see AT&T make its way down towards $13.20
Will communications $XLC lead the next leg up? In the last 6 months AMEX:XLC is the leading sector in the $SPX.
And with the recent sell of in the energy sector AMEX:XLE , communications is the only sector without lower lows.
There are various stocks that confirm this strength in AMEX:XLC , some are NASDAQ:MATH , NASDAQ:ATVI , NASDAQ:META , NASDAQ:CHTR and many others.
Let's wait and see.
XLC - COMMUNICATIONS XLC has and is still one of the strongest sectors.
this is still one of the most skewed ETF's with META's absurd weighting but nonetheless this pattern is still consolidating on the weekly chart.
There is a lower weekly high we have to monitor right at the top of the resistance channel but with if earnings guidance and revisions are met expect the likes of Google and Meta to lift this to the upside target of $74.
Watching weekly close below $64.50 for a bearish setup.
The technical weekly uptrend remains strong but a daily trend has weakened and needs to be monitored for potential accumulation or additional distribution.
IPG WCA - Inverted Head and ShouldersCompany: Interpublic Group of Companies Inc.
Ticker: IPG
Exchange: NYSE
Sector: Communication Services
Introduction:
In today's technical analysis, we focus on Interpublic Group of Companies Inc. (IPG), a prominent player in the Communication Services sector, listed on the NYSE. The weekly chart is currently illustrating an interesting Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, a traditional bottom reversal formation. Since we have analyzed the XLC and a bullish environment favors this sector, we have selected this stock for closer examination.
Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern:
The Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, usually observed after a significant downward movement, signals a potential bullish reversal. This pattern is characterized by three troughs, with the middle one being the deepest (the "head") and the two others (the "shoulders") being shorter and roughly equal in depth.
Analysis:
Previously, IPG's chart was showing a clear downtrend. However, we've spotted a promising Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that has been developing over 651 days. The symmetry between the left and right shoulders is intact, and the price now appears to be consolidating above the horizontal neckline at $39.28.
The price's position above the 200 EMA demonstrates a bullish market environment, suggesting that long setups could be more advantageous at this time. If a breakout above the neckline is confirmed, it could represent a good entry point for a long position.
The potential price target is set at $53.73, indicating an upside of approximately 37% from the level of the neckline.
Conclusion:
IPG's weekly chart reveals an intriguing setup in the form of an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, suggesting a possible bullish reversal. However, this is a watchlist candidate and not a direct trading recommendation.
As always, this analysis should be used as part of your comprehensive market research and risk management strategy. Please remember, this is not financial advice and investing always involves risk.
If you found this analysis helpful, please consider liking, sharing, and following for more insights. Wishing you profitable trading!
Best regards,
Karim Subhieh
CMCSA DCA - Cup and HandleCompany: Comcast Corporation
Ticker: CMCSA
Exchange: NASDAQ
Sector: Communication Services
Introduction:
Greetings, and welcome to today's technical analysis. We're focusing on the daily chart of Comcast Corporation (CMCSA), highlighting a bullish reversal pattern known as a cup and handle that has formed over 294 days.
Cup and Handle Pattern:
The cup and handle pattern is often a bullish continuation or a bullish reversal signal and is characterized by a 'U' shape (the cup) followed by a smaller, downward drift (the handle). The formation is complete when the asset's price breaks above the resistance line marking the top of the handle.
Analysis:
Comcast Corporation's price was previously in a downtrend, denoted by the blue diagonal resistance line. This downward movement appears to have been interrupted by the cup and handle pattern. The horizontal resistance line of this pattern is located at $40.94, with the price currently having a second breakthrough.
Notably, the 200 EMA is above the price, suggesting a bullish market environment.
Upon a successful breakout, the projected price target is $53.50, offering a potential rise of 30.70%. Therefore, a long position might be considered.
Conclusion:
The daily chart of Comcast Corporation presents an interesting scenario, with the formation of a cup and handle pattern suggesting a potential bullish reversal. With the successful breakout above the pattern's resistance this presents an opportunity for a long position.
As always, please bear in mind this analysis does not constitute financial advice. It's vital to conduct your own research and consider risk management strategies when investing.
If you found this analysis insightful, please like, share, and follow for more updates. Happy trading!
Best regards,
Karim Subhieh
XLC Sector WCA - Inv HS Sector: Communication Services (XLC)
Introduction:
Hello everyone! Today, we're analyzing the weekly chart of the Communication Services Sector (XLC). After a clear downward trend, we observe a potentially bullish reversal marked by a variation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern:
Typically, an inverted head and shoulders pattern serves as a bullish reversal signal, suggesting a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Analysis:
The XLC's price action has been forming a variation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern over the past 342 days. With a recent breakout above the horizontal neckline at $60, the price is decisively above the 200 EMA, supporting a bullish market environment.
The projected price target based on this pattern is $75, which equates to a potential increase of around 25%. From this analysis, we infer that the Communication Services Sector may outperform in the coming weeks or even months. Therefore, it might be worthwhile to pay closer attention to the individual stocks within this sector.
Conclusion:
The weekly chart of the XLC sector has shown a confirmed bullish reversal signaled by an inverted head and shoulders pattern. With a successful breakout above the neckline already in place, this could indicate a continuing bullish trend, suggesting that it may be an opportune time for long positions in this sector.
As we expect the Communication Services Sector to potentially outperform in the coming weeks or months, investors might consider focus on individual stocks within this sector for investment opportunities.
As always, your own research and risk management strategies should guide your investment decisions.
Thank you for tuning into this analysis. Don't forget to like, share, and follow for more insights into the market. Happy trading!
Best regards,
Karim Subhieh
CHTR Potential Trade AlertThis is a top short target. Keep this name on your watchlist as its been lagging the communications sector.
If the communication sector sees weakness which we think it will, this name will be a relative weakness trade to the downside.
Earnings approaching is the major outlier event.
Trade Idea: TMUS (T-mobile) TMUS is looking very topping heavy on the larger term time frame.
This would align with our thesis that we believe communication and aspects of the tech market are going to see some capital rotation.
If this weekly topping formation is triggered in this chart we will have a high probability trade setup.
Knowing the trend to trade is key.
Trade Idea - Meta at a pivotal areaMETA has been doing the heavy lifting for the communication sector.
One of the reasons communication sector is the best performing sector year to date is simply because of Metas outperformance.
Once the key moving average intersects it likey will result in a downtrend. Meta bulls have more work to do to stop this.
$XLC a bottom bounce and an interesting observation. Happy Labor Day Weekend Chart Watchers.
Its been awhile since I last posted anything but I figured this would make for some good conversation. The Communications sector has been the worst performer YTD of all the SPDR sectors. This weekly chart shows that it might be at an inflection point. First, lets discuss the chart. I am a long term investor. I like to view things in terms of weeks, months and years. This is the chart I use 99% of the time. The chart is a weekly candle chart utilizing a 10 Period EMA moving average and a 40 period SMA moving average. These are my primary trend following tools. My primary oscillators are the RSI and the Mansfield RSI. I'm sure everyone is familiar with the RSI indicator. For those of you not familiar with the Mansfield RSI it is comparison tool with a 52 period moving average overlaid. Basically it is a ratio chart turned into an indicator and made popular by the Stage Analysis Method developed by Stan Weinstein. Most investors use "ABC/SPY" as their ratio comparison chart. I use ITOT as I like to compare the stocks I am looking at against the entire market, you get the idea.
XLC is roughly down 30% YTD. It is the 5th Largest Weighting in the S&P, not an insignificant sector. This chart shows the following: a sector clearly in a downtrend as it is below both moving averages. a weekly candle testing the support created by its previous closing low. As the sector made new lows from March through June, RSI clearly bottomed. The sector made a low in June and then tested its low again at the end of August (to the penny I might add). As this happened RSI swung higher and created a positive divergence. Very interesting!
I think this sector is setting up for a bounce higher going into the end if the year. The Mansfield indicator is still showing a sector suffering from underperformance. If you are someone looking for relative strength to confirm absolute strength then look for the Mansfield indicator to take out the 0.63 level.
Observations: if the worst performing sector of the year holds its lows while the overall market is under pressure does the S&P trade below its June lows? If the worst performing sector turns around and swings higher, what is the overall market doing in that scenario? Its probably moving higher. Obviously if this sector breaks lower then the June lows on the S&P are most likely taken out. However, the evidence as I see it today argues for lows to hold and for a swing higher into the end of the year. Happy Charting!!!
Thanks for reading. Good luck to all!
7/10/22 TAT&T Inc. ( NYSE:T )
Sector: Communications (Major Telecommunications)
Market Capitalization: $148.907B
Current Price: $20.80
Breakout price: $21.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $20.50-$18.45
Price Target: $21.60-$21.80 (1st), $23.10-$23.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 132-137d (1st), 286-299d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $T 10/21/22 20c, $T 1/20/23 23c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.61/contract, $0.51/contract