TLT tends to bottom at the same level of TLT/XLETLT seems to bottom at a consistent level of the ratio of bonds to energy represented by TLT/XLE. TLT is currently at the level associated with macro bottoms and the start of major bond market rallies.
XLE
XLE AT A INTERESTING PRICE WHEN LOOKING AT THE PASTDoes this mean anything?
Yes and no.
you need more to go on than just this to project the move, however, if you assume middle trend is where this price wants to go to stabilize, and you see we are at a major spot when it comes to horizontal support.
I really can't tell yet where it goes.
The upside percentage is far less than the potential downside percentage.
Upside is favored, but again, I can't really tell on this one to say anything other than, it's at a horizontal mark that has been historically important.
Energy vs Tech : Analyzing Sector Performance and Market TrendsIntroduction:
The comparison between the energy sector (XLE) and the technology sector (XLK) provides valuable insights into current market trends. As the largest sector in the S&P 500, XLK often serves as a barometer for broader market strength. Conversely, when XLE outperforms XLK, it may signal caution, as XLE's smaller size limits its impact on the overall index.
Analysis:
Sector Comparison: XLK's performance is crucial in indicating market health. When XLK outperforms, it generally suggests a robust market outlook. On the other hand, if XLE starts to outperform XLK, this may indicate potential weakness in broader market conditions.
Inflationary Pressures: This ratio between XLE and XLK also reflects inflationary trends. A strong performance from XLE relative to XLK may signal rising inflationary pressures, which investors should closely monitor.
Charting the Pattern: The energy sector has formed an inverted saucer pattern. A breakout from this pattern could signify a positive upward trend and possibly a return to inflation.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: Monitor the XLE/XLK ratio for a potential breakout confirmation.
Stop Loss: Consider setting a stop loss below the recent support level identified on the chart.
Target Price: Set a target based on the measured move from the breakout point of the inverted saucer pattern.
Conclusion:
The comparative performance of XLE and XLK offers essential insights into market dynamics and inflationary pressures. Traders should keep an eye on the potential breakout from the inverted saucer pattern in XLE, as it may indicate a shift in market trends. What are your thoughts on this analysis? Share your insights in the comments!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the XLE/XLK ratio and the inverted saucer pattern)
#Energy #Technology #MarketTrends #Inflation #XLE #XLK
XLE: Rising Wave PatternTechnical analysis chart of the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), with Elliott wave analysis overlaid. Let's break down the analysis based on the chart and labels:
Overall Analysis:
The chart suggests a bullish trend for XLE, based on the Elliott wave structure. It indicates that we have completed wave ((4)) of wave V and are now in the unfolding wave ((5)). Within wave ((5)), we have started wave (1), and are currently in wave (3) of (1).
Wave Counts and Labels:
V Red: This represents the fifth and final wave of a larger Elliott wave pattern.
((4)) Black: The fourth corrective wave within V.
((5)) Black: The fifth and final impulsive wave within V.
(1) Blue: The first impulsive wave within ((5)).
1 Red: The first wave within (1).
2 Red: The second corrective wave within (1).
3 Red: The third impulsive wave within (1) (currently unfolding).
Price Projection and Invalidation as per Waves:
Bullish Projection: The chart suggests a potential target of 105 for wave ((5)).
Invalidation Level: A break below 83.02 would invalidate the current bullish analysis.
Educational Notes:
Elliott wave theory is a technical analysis tool that identifies patterns in price movements based on a series of five waves.
Impulsive waves (1, 3, 5) move in the direction of the overall trend, while corrective waves (2, 4) move in the opposite direction.
Wave labels use brackets to indicate different levels of analysis. For example, ((5)) is a larger wave than (1).
Colors are often used to visually differentiate between different waves and patterns.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
SPDR Select Sector Fund - Energy Select SectorIf you like my Idea, Don't forget to Boost and comment on my Analysis.. The recommendations are purely for educational purpose only, consult you financial advisor before trading.
if you have any questions do not hesitate to contact me.
Is oil signalling a recession? Oil has really started to free fall.
The death cross on the daily chart has occurred. this is where the 50 MA intersects with the 200 MA in a downtrend.
This often implies more downside to the medium and long term but is often a great short term long signal.
Usually when you get this signal the market makers bounce the stock or commodity a bit before taking it lower.
We are hitting a massive multi year trend line going back to 2022 that should act as some support.
XLE looks ready for 1 more down leg before a swing tradable low is in.
Energy does have a tendency to fall precipitously so understanding oil can keep falling if investors fear the worst or a recession.
Opening (IRA): XLE October 18th 83 Monied Covered Call... for a 81.41 debit.
Comments: This is a little early for a run at grabbing the September dividend, but wanted to get in when the underlying is still hovering around recent lows ... .
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 81.41
Max Profit: 1.59 (ex. divvies)
ROC at Max: 1.95% (ex. divvies)
50% Max: .80
ROC at 50% Max: .98%
Opened (IRA): XLE August 16th 85 Monied Covered Call... for an 83.77 debit.
Comments: Some of the only red on my ETF board ... . Here, selling the -75 delta call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. There is also a divvy to be had some time in June, with the last distribution being .73.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 83.77
Max Profit: 1.23 ($123)
ROC at Max: 1.47%
50% Max: .62 ($62)
ROC at 50% Max: .74%
See you later ChevronNYSE:CVX
note the following directional arrows are concepts and how I want to enter
With firms rotating out of AMEX:XLE we can expect some of the sectors top holdings and laggers get downside potential. Looking more into this I found NYSE:CVX to be the best candidate. NYSE:CVX and other gas stocks seem to be the ones catching the momentum down. Chevron also is following the same structure as AMEX:XLE which if AMEX:XLE gets the drop Monday we can expect NYSE:CVX to follow.
Expected Range - Upside $158.78 Downside $151.82
Key Levels - $153.37 - $153.59, $155.05 - $155.30, $155.61 - $156.94
Rating - Rotation out of AMEX:XLE +5, Rising volume near pivot +1, formed a base (slowed down)/topping wicks after break of base +1, same weakness as AMEX:XLE +1
8/10 Bullish, 2/10 Bearish
Natural Gas: A Mega Move is BrewingNatural Gas has been a very volatile asset in recent sessions.
The price action in the 4 hour chart has triggered a bullish breakout.
The next bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart is starting to take shape. This pattern has not yet triggered.
If we see a breakout of this pattern there is about $1.50 of upside from the neckline.
Resource stocks are still holding up very well, granted so is the market.
A very similar structure is playing out on the weekly chart, regarding the 50 Weekly MA
If we see price trade in congruency we should see more upside this week and then potentially we may see some sellers the folling week
XLE reached the supportBullish move soon. It reached the support line. The previous historical resistance line.
May Market Outlook, Sectors Rotation, Relative Strength AnalysisSince February, the commodities asset class has surged ahead, overshadowing the S&P 500's faltering performance. This notable shift in market dynamics underscores the resilience and strength exhibited by commodities during this period.
Of particular interest are the XLE and XLU sectors, which have emerged as frontrunners since early March. This transition coincided with the decline in momentum of previously dominant sectors like XLK and SMH (refer to Fig. 2). Notably, XLE and XLU, characterized as growth defensive sectors, have thrived amidst market downturns. Investing in commodities and energy/utility sectors during these phases could have yielded significant profits, with select energy stocks boasting returns exceeding 25%, while the S&P 500 experienced an approximate 10% decline.
Looking ahead to May, it's anticipated that XLE and XLU will maintain their market leadership, albeit with a slight loss in momentum. However, investors are advised to remain vigilant as these sectors may soon witness a change in dynamics. It's crucial to employ stop limit orders to safeguard profits in such volatile conditions.
Following the current trajectory, XLY, XLRE, and XLF are poised to emerge as significant players in the market cycle (refer to Fig. 3&4). However, it's important to note that these sectors are susceptible to rapid momentum shifts, particularly when XLK and XLC regain momentum.
Looking towards June, indications suggest that XLK and XLC will likely regain prominence in the market. For buy-and-hold investors, this presents an opportune moment to consider purchasing assets during market dips.
Considering these market dynamics, my top investment picks are (TSLA), (GOOG), (AAPL), (ORCL), and Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO). These companies demonstrate strong growth potential, especially when timed strategically to align with sector rotation leadership shifts.
Solar stocks follow energy prices (crude oil).Solar stocks follow energy prices (crude oil) and AMEX:USO (oil etf) is about to break out. I read that chinese are outcompeting the west in cheaper solar products. ie NYSE:JKS
TNX is at bull market, crude oil and yields correlate (not sure which one cause the other).
I look at everything trough probabilities since nothing is ever known.
Stocks do bad when economy does good. But energy sector performs well during good economy, whilst everything else is falling (Tech). Peak tech means bottom for energy?
I think these are good hedge plays, if you believe rising oil or yields pose risk.
Recently Chinese gov asked Jack Ma to return because their financial markets did poorly. There could be a sentiment shift, where indicator will be NYSE:BABA performance. People might still have an old bias?
Hindsight; Buying RIG using macd, fib.Looking back, high probability positions buying RIG using macd and fib (50%). Following OSX sector, XLE. XLE/SPY.
$GTLS PEG (Power Earnings Gap) CandidateNYSE:GTLS is in the energy space as an equipment manufacturer. One that may not come on your radar. The average price target on this is $197.68. USB just gave it a new “BUY” rating and a price target of $170. At the current price that implies a 16% move. At the average price target the implied move would be over 34%.
Now the technical that I trade. This had over an 11% Gap move on earnings. It has been digesting that for fifteen trading days now. I have an alert set just over today’s high of 150.50. Should that trigger, I will look to go long with a stop on a decisive close under the 10 DMA (Bluish) which would be a nice risk reward trade. All TBD.
The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
Chart Industries, Inc. is a leading independent global manufacturer of highly engineered equipment servicing multiple market applications in Energy and Industrial Gas. Our unique product portfolio is used throughout the liquid gas supply chain in the production, storage, distribution and end-use of atmospheric, hydrocarbon, and industrial gases. Chart has domestic operations located across the United States and an international presence in Asia, Australia, Europe and Latin America.
Opened (IRA): XLE April 19th 88 Covered Call... for a 85.43 debit.
Comments: Looking to attempt to grab the March dividend, which has been averaging around .80 over the past four distributions.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 85.43
Max Profit: 2.57 ($257)
ROC at Max (ex. dividend): 3.01%
ROC at Max (w/dividend): 3.94% (assuming an .80 distribution)
ROC at 50% Max (ex. dividend): 1.50%
ROC at 50% Max (w/dividend): 2.44% (assuming an .80 distribution)
S&P500 Sector ReviewDiscussing all the sectors of the S&P500 sectors. Looking for capital rotation trades.
DJT
XLB
XLC
XLE
XLF
XLI
XLK
XLP
XLRE
XLU
XLV
XLY
Occidental Petroleum Corp.: Bullish Bias. ContinuationTo be successful on Wall Street, it is important to be flexible and be able to recognize changing market winds - the patterns that tell investors when to get in and out of the market.
Sometimes a breeze is a warm and inviting wind: assets rise in value, and it seems that everyone is making money.
Other times, it turns into a violent storm, leaving in its wake financial destruction, memories of the past, and hope that better times are yet to come.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (often abbreviated as Oxy in reference to the symbol and logo) is an American company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration in the United States and the Middle East, as well as petrochemical production in the United States, Canada and Chile.
The oil company, among other Value Investing Assets, has become one of the main beneficiaries of the weakening and reversal of WFH ("Working From Home") disinflationary trends that quickly shook the entire financial world against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic in Q1 2020. But faded also just as quickly, while since the first quarter of 2021, in two years, many growth assets have been undermined, rocked by scandals, or completely destroyed.
It was revealed in March that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway added more shares to an already large bet on Occidental Petroleum, according to an SEC Form 4 report released on March 7, 2023.
The Buffett conglomerate bought nearly 5.8 million shares of the oil company over multiple trading sessions in March, at prices ranging from $59.85 to $61.90, according to the documents.
Berkshire now owns 200.2 million shares of Occidental, totaling 22.2% of the oil company's shares, up from 21.4% previously.
Occidental shares are currently among the top 10 Berkshire holdings. The energy company outperformed the S&P 500 index last year, more than doubling in price.
In March, Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said in an interview with CNBC that she met with the 92-year-old investor, noting that they talked about the oil and gas industry and related technologies.
Last August, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of Occidental, sparking speculation that Berkshire could eventually buy out the entire Occidental company.
Berkshire also owns $10 billion of preferred shares in Occidental and has warrants to buy another 83.9 million shares of common stock for $5 billion, or $59.62 each. The warrants were obtained as part of the company's 2019 deal that helped finance the purchase of Anadarko Occidental.
While many investors even now continue to believe in the crypto-snow that melted without a trace the winter before last, the technical picture indicates the possibility of Growth comtinuation in value investment assets, incl. Occidental Petroleum - after the completion of the 0.618x Fibonacci retrace to the Growth that began later to Russian President "Special Military Operation" announcement in Q1'22.
Also, the support of weekly SMA (200) in CL1! - Crude Oil Futures adds bullish bias to market participants.
WTI Jumps to $78, Key Fibo Level - The Next Big Risk?Mega-cap tech’s climb to jumpstart 2024 fooled many strategists who called for value, cyclical, and small-cap niches to outperform. The same old playbook has been in full swing, but could that be about to change? Consider that banks, not chips, ended this week at fresh multi-year highs following a late-week pullback among the big semiconductor names.
But there’s more action out there that few are paying attention to. Have you seen WTI crude oil recently? Tensions in the Red Sea have been ongoing for many weeks, but it has just been over the last few sessions that WTI has taken flight. The prompt month now trades near $78. Gasoline futures, meanwhile, rose above $2.30, implying a national retail pump price average near $3.25 over the coming weeks.
Consumers might not like that, and it would come immediately after a sanguine set of University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers for January. We will get an updated read on that Friday next week. I also point out in today’s featured chart that US light sweet crude oil is now at a pivotal Fibonacci retracement level on the chart. Watch how the bulls and bears battle it out as the calendar flips to February. If we rally through $78, and hold it on pullbacks, a rotation in the market could very well take place, right as mega-cap tech reports Q4 results.
XLE Energy stocks, time to buy? Oil has been creeping up lately. Today it triggered a bullish intraday pattern.
This intraday pattern if completes, sets up for a larger bullish daily chart pattern.
If this breakout in oil happens were going to see some energy stocks make moves liek the Semiconductors did today.
Many names like RIG, XOM, HAL, XLE put in daily bottoming tails.
Some energy stocks have much higher beta than others..be careful.
Not FA advice.
oil and the secondary wave of inflation.before you read any further read my post from may:
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in may of 2023 i called the top on oil and projected we come down into the $50-60 range. we ended up playing it out quite flawlessly. a lot of people were very angry at me for whatever reason back when i was calling for the top, probably due to their elevated levels of confidence and greed. those people got wiped out.
today, i bring to you a follow-up prediction, in line with my us10y prediction.
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i'm predicting that oil hits $181 per barrel over the next year, which will cause a secondary wave of inflation.
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oil w5 algo = $181
Natural GAs makes epic reversal, Oil Pummeled. Nat Gas made an epic reversal today after being down over 6%.
Oil got pummeled today despite a weak dollar.
Is the energy market breaking down?
#XLE broken above resistance and major volume shelf - more to goXLE ETF has broken above both a major resistance level (horizontal and channel) as well as a major volume shelf. In addition it's come off a divergent low which has propelled it higher. I think energy names have some legs here..
