USO - bearish double topOPEC + just agreed to increase output until 2022, Gasoline stockpiles build up more than expected EIA report July 13. Look for bear flag to form on 4 hour. PT .618 Fib level or 47.75. August - Usually refiners shutdown and that means build up of inventory. The only bullish case I see, if there are major hurricanes knocking out supply in Gulf of Mexico. I am in 8/20 $48 puts at 1.5, current 4000 OI. Good Luck this week!
XLE
wont time itwont time the market, but need to survive a deathcross now, hopefully hold this level; nice channel is created. With a near term PT at 5.60s. Could even finally be low risk above 4.50+. Must see what oil does on monday, after OPEC+ agreement today. I think XLE is close to bottom too.
I think in a long term anything is possible. Cyclicals will boom, when dollar falls. doesnt have to happen near term though.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/16The sectors ended the week in a very character than they started the week. None of the leading sectors early in the week were leading by the end of the week.
Financials (XLF) started the week in first as investors anticipated earnings reports from big banks that began on Tuesday. By Friday, the sector slipped to the middle of the list, ending the week with a -1.61% decline.
Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) took over the top spots for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. They also reversed downward and ended the week with losses.
The only sectors to end the week with gains were Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Real Estate (XLRE). The defensive sectors gained ground at the end of the week as worries over the economy grew among investors.
Energy (XLE) was at the bottom of the list, dropping -7.89% this week. OPEC+ continues to have disagreements, destabilizing the sector along with the price of oil. Add the fears of a slowing recovery, and investors are exiting positions in the sector that performed well in the first half of 2021.
XLE SP500 Energy Sector SPDRWhen doing my sector research, I noticed that the stochastic levels were decreasing. I like levels under 50% and this is currently at 24% today. The put to call ratio is under 1 sitting at 0.92 post-market which indicates that there are a tad bit more puts that were closed today versus yesterday which indicates that more calls are slowly entering the market. The energy market is due for a spike in my opinion as the economy is slowly recovering and demand is slowly increasing with talks of the infrastructure bill along increased oil demand as of late. The only thing worries me is the lack of unemployment growth and job acceptance compared to job growth which has been increasing.
As far as the chart itself, on the Daily timeframe I noticed that the RSI is in the "oversold" territory and the MACD just crossed over to the green territory which indicates a possible reversal soon to come. I've also noticed that "Support #1" has potentially been broken. I want to make sure my 4HR and 1HR time frames match to the daily regarding the RSI and MACD which it is pretty close in my opinion. Since "Support #1" has been broken, I went to the 4HR and 1HR to confirm in which I saw the Support #1 being broke through with strong bearish candles. This indicates that price could potentially begin testing "Support #2". I used the fibonnaci indicator to trace a potential retracement from and to the resistance and the support levels to create the discount price area and the target price area.
Before entering I want to see bullish candles in the discount zone on the 1HR timeframe!
I hope this give you some form of sentiment.
Thanks for the support!
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/9The short week was defined mainly by Thursday's sell-off in equities as Treasury bond yields were sliding. That gave a boost to two defensive sectors, Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU), but the two sectors were already leading from Monday. The worries ended on Friday, but the two sectors remained in the lead for the week.
Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were the next two sectors at the top of the list, showing a mix of risk-on and risk-off sentiment throughout the week.
The cyclical sectors moved from the top of the sector list on Wednesday to the bottom of the list on Thursday, back to the top of the list on Friday.
Energy (XLE) was a consistent loser throughout the week until finally finding itself at the top of the list on Friday. However, the gains were not enough to move it out of the bottom position for the week.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/2Technology (XLK) led the sector list this week, propelled higher by strong economic data and significant gains by big tech. Communications (XLC) led briefly on Monday after a judge threw out two cases brought against Facebook. The decision was a blow to regulators and a boon to several tech mega-caps facing similar challenges.
Utilities (XLU) also led at the beginning of the week but quickly retreated and ended the week at a loss.
Energy (XLE) had a volatile start to the week due to increased pandemic fears. The continued demand for Oil, driving prices higher, eventually brought investors back to the sector. However, it wasn't enough to lift the sector out of the bottom position in the sector list.
The three secular growth sectors outperformed the broader S&P 500 index this week, while cyclical sectors underperformed.
longterm bullRIG will test 7-8$, imho, when these two lines colide, in like september or october. (It's current trend).
Expect some head wind in short term from slower global recovery (variant). It would be hard for XLE to return to where it came from; so that's extremely bullish .
No crap head lines can't change fact that there was underinvestment into oil exploration; thus oil companies focusing on profits first. Opec wants least 70$ WTI (supported by demand) not 50$/ br .
Also think that in short term whole energy sector has tail winds from value (DJI, VTV , industrials , etc) slowing down, and fake out rally in yields. But not in a long run.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/25Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) topped the sector list this week. Energy continues to rise while crude oil prices hit record highs. Financials (XLF) is recovering along with yields on Treasury Bonds, which both were hit by the hawkish stance from the Fed last week.
At the bottom of the sector list were the defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU) was the only sector to decline this week.
The growth sectors mixed with the cyclical sectors in the middle of the list.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/18It was a volatile week in the indexes and the sector list as investors rotated on the Fed's new hawkish stance toward inflation. Energy (XLE) led early in the week, but Technology (XLK) topped the list by the end of the week, ending the week as the only sector to hold onto gains.
In second place was Consumer Discretionary (XLY). Growth stocks remained strong compared to Value stocks even in the sell-off that occurred on quadruple witching Friday.
The cyclical sectors were at the bottom of the weekly sector list, with Materials (XLB) having the worse performance among a drop in commodity prices.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/4Energy (XLE) and Real Estate (XLRE) led the sector list for the week, establishing their lead early in the week. Energy got a boost from the rise in oil prices on high demand. Real Estate is gathering momentum from rising housing and rental prices while also being a great hedge against inflation.
The focus on employment data released on Friday morning is clear in two pivots. There was a sharp sell-off of most sectors except Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) on Thursday ahead of the report. The two sectors are good defensive plays when investors get nervous about how the market may react to news or events.
After the report was released, Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Communications (XLC) rallied on Friday. It seems the employment data was good enough to keep a positive outlook, while not so good to drive more fears of tapering by the Fed.
Health Care (XLV) was the worst-performing sector for the week.
Black Gold is not doneBlack Gold finally broke out from the 3 month cup handle pattern as mentioned last week! Although weekly chart was showing bearish, it was a bullish flag because the lows never broke. This week the momentum continues upward possibly in a big way. Extremely Bullish! Once it breaks 56.75, 59 will be the next target. XOM, SLB, NOV are yummy plays.
SWN on the move.SWN has been slowly returning from the 'left for dead' pile, significantly outperforming the broader XLE index since the covid bottom in early 2020. While I could see some consolidation at the current 5.75 level for a few weeks, this could be poised to run as high as 15 over the course of the next year.
The most attractive thing about this stock is the multiyear view here, where you can see this has been left for dead for many years. When companies wake this wake up, they are often heavily underindexed and set up for nice rallies. This in conjunction with the overall positivity of energy lately, I think we could continue to see significant returns over the course of a year.
LongBelieve, from here, it could either retest bottom of channel of 3.20-> bounce to rally. Or it consolidates before breaking above (a longterm downtrend); Or big volume, fire power shows up; bullish once breaking above 4.10-4.20 levels. TP at 5-5.20$ range, re-tests 4.20-4.50, before moving higher. Catalyst will be WTI and XLE/XOP markets.
Fundamentally I believe the narrative of "bad oil" will change once technicals align bullish, and whole XLE shows strength; narrative will change to "we still need oil" hence these media analysts hate to look bad/wrong. Once XLE shows strength, people have a very short sighted memory, but we may see soon.
XLF and others might lead the wayAs noted in my previous ideas about $SPY (bearish), $XLF, $XLI, $IWM, $XLE might be the catalyst that leads the markets higher. $XLF tapped the 8day EMA twice before going back to positive which to me shows resilience with a market that has no sense of direction. A nice hammer doji before breaking off into Memorial Weekend. XLF might try and tap the upper band (38.50 - 39) before fading back to middle channel.