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THE WEEK AHEAD: HAL, NFLX, AA, UAL EARNINGS; EWZ, XLE, SLV, IWMHIGHLY LIQUID OPTIONS SINGLE NAME EARNINGS (LISTED CHRONOLOGICALLY IN ORDER OF ANNOUNCEMENT AND SCREENED FOR >50% 30-DAY IMPLIED): HAL (13/61/13.9%),* Tuesday, before market open NFLX (25/50/11.3%), Tuesday, after market close AA (18/69/15.9%), Wednesday, after market close UAL (13/64/14.8%), Wednesday, after market close From a bang for your buck perspective: AA ranks first, UAL, second, followed by NFLX, and HAL. I already have a covered strangle on in UAL and don't anticipate putting on more single name risk in the IRA (which is my primary focus running into retirement), but will naturally post a play should I get into one. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH >35% 30-DAY AND RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: EWZ (18/45/10.3%) XLE (23/42/9.7%) SLV (25/42/9.4%) GDX (12/38/9.2%) XBI (18/37/8.7%) KRE (16/36/8.7%) EWW (15/36/7.5%) I'm already in everything here but for KRE and EWW (the lowest bangs for your buck on the list) and the February monthly is a bit short in duration here for me (34 days) and March a tad long (62 days), so I may not do much this week in these, although going out to March with another rung in my GDX, SLV, and XBI positions isn't out of the question. BROAD MARKET RANKED BY 30-DAY IMPLIED: IWM (24/32/6.8%) QQQ (22/30/6.4%) SPY (16/24/4.8%) DIA (13/23/4.6%) EFA (14/20/3.8%) In spite of the fact that IWM and/or RUT have the higher 30-day, I may look at adding a July (181 days) rung to the SPY short put ladder I have on in the IRA, targeting the strike paying at least 1% of the strike price in credit (which would currently be something like the 240), and do the kind of "opportunistic rolling" I've been doing with shorter duration rungs. (See Post Below). Although most frown upon going out this far in time, it's a way to deploy otherwise underutilized buying power that will earn something >0% while I work shorter duration setups or wait for a higher implied volatility environment and/or greater weakness. Additionally, my goals for the IRA are somewhat modest from a return on capital standpoint: I'm not looking to hit homers or be an incredibly attentive investor, opting for a once a week or even a once a month schedule of looking at things, making adjustments as appropriate, and/or taking off stuff approaching worthless that doesn't merit hanging onto due to the amount of time left in the contract. * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where the 30-day is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, thirty day implied; and the third, the percentage the at-the-money short straddle in the February monthly is paying as a function of stock price.
NYSE:HAL
by NaughtyPines
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 1/15The sectors had a wild race this week with the backdrop of a up and down market with several rotations between small caps, mid caps and large caps. Energy (XLE) would ultimately be the winner, supported by production cuts in Saudi Arabia, higher than expected demand for oil, and some positive news from OPEC. There was a significant pullback on Friday after SEC announced an investigation into Exxon Mobile (XOM) which makes up 23% of the XLE ETF. Financials (XLF) led must of the week as investors expect higher treasury yields boost performance for big banks. That turned upside down on Friday when Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) disappointed on revenue despite beating expectations on earnings. It was Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) that started to climb on Tuesday and were top performers on Friday. Those two sectors are defensive plays for equity investors. Both are expected to suffer less from market pullbacks. Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) were also doing well earlier in the week, but pulled back on Friday. It could be that the nearly $2 trillion of stimulus promised by President-elect Biden is seen as a delay to the expected investments in infrastructure. Just a theory. Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) were at the bottom. The big tech mega-caps went up and down in price all week as money moved in and out of the segment. Communications, which includes companies like Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) suffered the most as investors fear negative impact of recent actions related to Donald Trump.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
5
Revisiting XLE and the recovery of the energy sectorUpdate from a previous post: XLE developing nicely as the price has managed the get out of the range and yesterday we opened with a gap and there almost no attempt to push the price down and to fill the small gap. MACD's crossing is widening and the histogram is expanding as well. RSI moving to the overbought zone, but there is some more room for additional movement North before any correction. The energy sector is starting to recover more and more and demand for the ETF is rising as well. Volumes support the recent movement. My short-term target is $47.
AMEX:XLELong
by DailyChartist
THE WEEK AHEAD: KBH, DAL, ICLN, SLV, EWZ, KRE, XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: There aren't a ton of earnings next week. Some financials are announcing, but I generally don't play those a ton for volatility contraction, since they never really frisk up that much, and all are below 50% 30-day implied here. KBH provides the best bang for your buck with the implied metrics I'm generally looking for (>50%), followed by DAL. Both, however, are at the low end of their 52-week range, in part due to the massive vol spike we experienced in March, which will make that metric somewhat misleading here. KBH (18/56/14.5%),* Tuesday after market close. DAL (7/53/12.9%), Wednesday before market open. C (17/44/9.8%), Friday before market open. JPM (14/32/7.8%), Friday before market open. WFC (22/44/10.6%), Friday before market open. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY 19TH AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: ICLN (14/79/20.0%) SLV (31/48/11.3%) EWZ (16/44/10.6%) XLE (22/41/10.2%) KRE (17/42/9.9%) BROAD MARKET: Pictured here is an IWM short put out in March at the strike paying at least 1% of the strike in credit. An IRA trade, I would look to roll up intraexpiry to lock in realized gain with >45 days 'til expiry, take profit on approaching worthless (<.20), and sell call against if assigned. Currently 67 days 'til expiry, it is understandably a bit long in duration, but I already have some on in the February monthly. IWM (26/34/7.6%) QQQ (21/31/6.9%) DIA (14/24/5.2%) SPY (11/24/5.0%) EFA (14/21/4.7%) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where implied is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, the 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of the stock price.
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
2
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 1/8Energy (XLE) finds itself back at the top of the sector list for the first week of 2021. It's not something you might expect as the blue wave hit US politics, which doesn't bode well for traditional energy stocks. However, crude oil is over $50 a barrel for the first time since April after Saudi Arabia surprisingly cut output. The blue wave did have some expected impact this week. After the Georgia run-off results showed Democrats would take control of the senate, US Treasury Bond yields took off as investors expect more stimulus that would further impact the US Dollar. That caused Financials (XLF), especially big banks, to have big gains on Wednesday and Thursday. Materials (XLB) benefited from the blue wave news, as we can expect big investments in US infrastructure with the new administration. Industrials (XLI) also had a boost on Wednesday, with some benefit from infrastructure spend, but also several segments like airlines likely to benefit from further stimulus. However, Industrials did not continue the rise and ended the week behind the S&P 500. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) got a boost on Friday, perhaps from higher than expected Consumer credit numbers on top of the promise of new stimulus. Quite a few people had a good Christmas it seems. At the bottom of the list is Real Estate (XLRE) which is likely to suffer in the bottom line from the higher interest rates. Technology (XLK) had the opposite reaction to the blue wave on Wednesday but regained from losses on Thursday and Friday to end the week just behind Industrials. Also notable is Utilities (XLU) which lost for the week, but had gains on Friday as a defensive move heading into a likely emotion filled weekend for the United States.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
The revival of Energy - XLE on the riseXLE has been in a range for quite some time with the fall of Oil price from the first lockdown. But as thing recover and demand for Oil is returning to somewhat normal levels, the ETF is starting to give signs of life as well. RSI well above 50 and is moving slowly into overbought territory, but this means that there is more room for the price to rise. MACD has made a crossover and the histogram is turning positive. Resistance level circa 40 has been breached.
AMEX:XLELong
by DailyChartist
Sector Winners and Losers for 1/5 and 1/6I normally publish this chart on weekly basis as part of my Week in Review work but I thought it was interesting to look at it today, in the context of the Georgia run-off election results. There is also the turmoil in DC, but that did not seem to impact the sector leaders list (the afternoon dip impacted all equally). Energy (XLE) is leading over the two days, although was in third place for Wednesday. This position is not related to politics, but rather that crude oil prices moved past $50 for the first time since February. A much smaller part of Energy is the solar stocks which will benefit greatly from a Democratic controlled congress and presidency. However, the solar stocks make up a small part of XLE and are not the reason for the sector performance. Materials (XLB) is the next sector on the list. Materials sector will benefit greatly from expected spend on infrastructure in the US. Financials (XLF) was the winner on Wednesday, as yields on treasury bonds rose, bringing higher interest rates that will benefit banks. Industrials (XLI) got a boost from both the outlook for infrastructure spend, but also the promise of more stimulus that would easily pass through congress and signed by the president. The sectors that did not fair well with the news included Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK) which both include "big tech" names that are likely to take a hit from higher bond yields. Similarly Real Estate (XLRE) will incur higher costs due to the higher interest rates.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
2
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 12/31Communications (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) spent about half the week each at the top of the sector list. But it was Utilities (XLU) that would rise at the end of the week as the winner. No doubt a defensive play going into the long weekend and a turn of the clock to a new year. Energy (XLE) had a very short-lived time at that top on Monday morning, but ended the week as the worst performing sector. Energy was the only sector to end the week with a loss.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
4
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBBY, MU EARNINGS; ICLN, SLV, XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS: I've culled down all of next week's earnings announcements to options highly liquid underlyings where the 30-day is >50% and am left with two potential candidates for volatility contraction plays: BBBY (23/99/26.3%)* and MU (23/53/14.0%). BBBY announces on Thursday before market open, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesdays session; MU, announces on Thursday after market close. Pictured here is a delta neutral short strangle in the February cycle (49 days), which was paying 1.27 at the mid price as of Friday close with break evens wide of two times the expected move on the call side and slightly above the 2x on the put and delta/theta of -1.07/3.12. Naturally, you can see the call side skew here, with the similarly-delta'd short put 3.76 away from current price, but the call 7.24 away, so the underlying may merit a look at alternative plays that take advantage of this. In contrast, the shorter duration January 15th 15/22.5 (14 days) was paying 1.02, with delta/theta metrics of .21/7.91, with the natural trade-off's being less room to be wrong, but a quicker resolution of the trade should you be right. With MU, I'd look at a Plain Jane 2x expected move short strangle, which here would be the January 15th 68.5/85, paying 1.71 or the February 19th 62.5/90, paying 2.30. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY 19TH AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: ICLN (9/51/15.0%) SLV (33/48/13.6%) XLE (23/41/11.4%) XBI (27/39/11.2%) EWZ (14/39/11.1%) GDX (15/38/11.1%) XME (14/38/10.7%) BROAD MARKET: IWM (25/31/8.1%) QQQ (19/27/7.1%) SPY (15/22/5.4%) EFA (20/21/5.2%) BOND FUNDS: TLT (16/18/4.4%) (Yield: 1.609%) HYG (7/13/2.0%) (Yield: 4.917%) EMB (4/7/2.0%) (Yield: 4.024%) AGG (28/8/1.7%) (Yield: 2.252%) * -- The first number is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied; and the third, what the February 19th at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
NASDAQ:BBBY
by NaughtyPines
2
Short Energy sector 🛢️ - Swingtrade, high Risk/Reward trade If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow or comment. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together. Hi fellows, just one of my today swingrades: As you can see ERY bottomed out and forming a bull flag pattern.Rising bull momentum is there clearly represent by divergence on Momentum and CCI indicators. Today will be good opportunity to get in. ------------------------Trade setup --------------------------- Entry: 34.34 Stop Loss: 32.75 Profit target: 39.76 Time stop: 5 days ------------------------------------------------------------------
AMEX:ERYLong
by Tomasgei
1
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 12/25The short trading week was not without its excitement. Financials (XLF) was the big winner of the week. The fed stress test last week resulted in banks being allowed to resume share buy bank programs, giving some tailwinds to the sector. Technology (XLK) took the lead on Tuesday, but fell back into second place at the open on Wednesday. All other sectors underperformed the S&P 500 for the week. Energy (XLE) was the leading sector for Wednesday's session but was the worst performing sector on the other days, coming in last for the week.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
THE WEEK AHEAD: SLV, GDX, XLE, IWM/RUTWith two shortened market weeks in a row for Christmas and New Year's, I probably won't be doing a ton here, but figured I'd do a post for how exchange-traded funds are looking in the waning weeks of 2020 ... . EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY PERCENTAGE THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE NEAREST 45 DAYS IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (32/46/11.9%) GDX (18/43/11.0%) XLE (25/42/10.7%) EWZ (14/40/10.0%) XBI (21/36/9.1%) KRE (18/36/9.3%) I'm currently in small XLE, EWZ, KRE, and GLD positions, but will consider adding on weakness if any comes my way and the implied volatility sticks in there. One thing I don't want to do is to constantly follow high implied volatility, only to find myself grossly overweighted in energy, Brazil, and regional banks, however, so don't want to go too crazy adding in sectors that have been high in the list week in and week out over the past several months. BROAD MARKET: IWM (22/29/6.9%) QQQ (19/26/6.5%) SPY (13/22/4.9%) Pictured here is an SPX 50 wide set up to pay at least 10% of the width of the spread, or around 5.00/contract in the expiry nearest 45 days, which would be the February 5th weekly (currently 47 days until expiry). I would ordinarily opt for a higher implied volatility RUT setup, but there currently isn't a February 5th expiry available. You can certainly go with the January 29th (40 days) or the February 19th (59 days), with the preference being to put these on in a down day or days. Smaller account should consider going with SPY or QQQ spreads* with the appropriate combination of of contracts and spread widths commensurate with your account size. BOND FUNDS: TLT (1/15/3.5%) (1.609% Yield) EMB (11/8/2.6%) (4.024% Yield) HYG (7/10/2.1%) (4.917% Yield) AGG (29/9/1.9%) (2.252% Yield) In the IRA, I've been selling HYG short put here of 30 days' duration or so for a credit that is around the monthly dividend. With the December 18th short put having expired worthless, I'll look at adding some in the January 22nd cycle, where the 85 is paying .41 at the mid. As I've pointed out before, the premium in bond funds generally stinks, but I've been using this strategy as a way to deploy buying power that would otherwise be sitting there earning virtually nothing while I await down days or a higher volatility environment. * -- Unfortunately, NDX isn't as liquid as either SPX or RUT, so I virtually never trade NDX spreads, opting instead for equivalent sizing in the QQQ's (e.g., 5 10-wides).
SP:SPX
by NaughtyPines
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 12/18The sectors took on a character we have not seen for some time. Technology (XLK) is back to leading the sectors for this week. Helped by a number of breakouts in technology growth stocks, some of those fueled by speculation in security stocks following a wide and troublesome security breach that impacted both the government and private sector. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) came in second, after very briefly passing Technology on Wednesday morning. Retail Sales data and Santa Claus are likely the reasons for the great performance. Materials (XLB) also performed well on Building Permits and New Housing Starts data that came in better than expected. The big loser for the week was Energy (XLE). This is after five weeks of leading the sector list. Despite vaccine availability and positive oil prices giving it a boost midweek, the nervous sentiment caused by new lockdowns worldwide have put downward price pressure on the sector.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
THE WEEK AHEAD: FDX, LEN, MU, CCL EARNINGS; XOP/XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT-RELATED VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS (IN ORDER OF ANNOUNCEMENT): Here are the options-liquid underlyings announcing next week that I've culled down to 30-day >50% as candidates for volatility contraction plays: LEN (21/49/11.6%),* announcing Wednesday after market close MU (24/52/12.2%), announcing Wednesday (no time specified) FDX (29/53/11.9%), announcing Thursday after market close CCL (27/91/21.1%), announcing Friday (no time specified) Pictured here is a January 15th 17.5/27.5 short strangle in CCL which announces Friday, paying 1.36 as of Friday close with delta/theta of -4.86/4.84 with break evens wide of 2 times the expected move on the call side, and between the 1 and 2 x on the put. Although no time is currently specified, it is likely to announce before market open (because who, like, announces after Friday close?), so would look to put on a play in the waning hours of Thursday's session if you want to take advantage of Friday's post-announcement volatility contraction. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY BANG FOR YOUR BUCK: XOP (21/60/16.3%)** GDXJ (15/44/12.9%) XLE (30/45/12.5%) KRE 924/41/11.1%) SLV (25/40/11.2%) GDX (16/38/10.7%) EWZ (15/39/10.6%) XBI (24/38/10.0%) BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: IWM (25/30/7.8%) QQQ (23/30/7.6%) DIA (16/23/6.0%) SPY (16/23/5.6%) EFA (20/24/5.1%) TREASURY/BOND FUNDS: Adding a little bond/treasury section to here since I occasionally park what would otherwise be idle cash in short puts (See Post Below). TLT (11/15/3.99%) (1.609% yield) HYG (11/11/2.41%) (4.917% yield) EMB (5/9/--)*** (4.024% yield) AGG (29/8/--)*** (2.252% yield) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, what the January 15th at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price. ** -- Here, I'm using the short straddle price nearest 45 days until expiry to calculate the "bang for your buck" percentage, which would be the January 29th weekly. *** -- EMB and AGG don't have weeklies nearest 45 days.
NYSE:CCL
by NaughtyPines
2
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 12/11Despite starting the week in last place, Energy (XLE) rose to the top of the sector list starting from Tuesday as the first vaccine doses were made available in the UK. That positive vaccine news boosted the sector that is likely to benefit from the increased activity in travel and leisure sectors. Communications (XLC) led at the beginning of the week, but could not keep up with Energy and finished the week in second. Utilities (XLU) also had moments of leadership on Monday and Tuesday. The sector is a defensive play in equities and an alternative to moving money into other safe havens such as bonds. Real Estate (XLRE) was the worst performing sector for the week. Technology (XLK) that heavily impacts market performance, underperformed the S&P 500 this week.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
3