NOV-0.35*OKE $NOV (National-Oilwell) vs. $OKE (Oneok Inc)Quantamental Tools for Proprietary and Retail Investors.
Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities Delivered to Your Inbox.
QuantChart. io
Long 100 $NOV
Short 35 $OKE
XLE
Energy and Financials Adding To SPX Strength In ATH RunSPX with a key back test of the 3389 level overnight as it's trying to break up over the 3411 level. If it can over 3411 it should trigger a test of the key 3425 level. This is a key level from our double top back in September.
SPX is opening stronger than NAS and this is mainly because of energy and financials. If energy and financials are able to join this rally, SPX will run to ATH's and beyond. October is shaping up to be a very bullish month with the potential for a very large rally.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/2It was a back and forth race for the SPDR ETFs this past week. In the end, Real Estate (XLRE) was the winner.
Utilities (XLU) had a week of steady growth but could quite beat out Real Estate.
Technology (XLK) did well earlier in the week but sold off at the end on bad news.
Energy (XLE) had relatively big gains on Friday, but overall still a loser for the week.
OPENING (IRA): XLE NOVEMBER/DECEMBER/JANUARY 26/27/28 SHORT PUT... ladder for a total of 2.17 in credit.
Notes: 30-day implied at 39.47% with expiry-specific implied at 43.4%, 42.9%, and 43.4% for November, December, and January, respectively. Current yield of 6.71%, so am fine with taking on shares and covering or just keeping the premium.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 9/25Here are the sector winners and losers for this week. XLK (Technology) was up and down as it took the Nasdaq for quite a ride. XLF (Finance) was down from the beginning of the week due to news of suspicious transfers not being blocked by large international banks. XLE (Energy) continues to be a loser despite the increase in crude oil prices. Good to keep an eye on that.
Good opportunity to short XLE on this recent popXLE looks extremely bearish. Might be a good idea to sell some call credit spreads to benefit from the last pop and ride it more to the downside.
Price of Oil rising while XLE fallsFutures on crude oil is increasing while XLE is flat or declining. The gap is widening. Bottom indicator is taking the 100 day % change of each and comparing.
How much does XLE need to move to catch up?
Is the tech bubble holding XLE down?
How resilient would XLE be against the market further correcting?
Market Rotation Into Energy (XLE) The past week there was rotation into Energy (XLE). There is precedent for rotations into energy marking tops and continuing as safe havens during corrections.
In the bottom chart, you see the rotation happening in September 2018, just before three months of market declines (21% on S%P 500 and 24% for Nasdaq).
Looking back further to the 2000 tech bubble, look at stocks like CVX, XOM and SLB. These stocks are going up or sideways while the market is crashing around them.
On the other hand, 2018 these stocks fell along with the market.
So the question is are we in a correction?
If so, is it more like 2000 or 2018?
Have energy stocks been held down while the tech bubble grew?
Will we see energy stocks climb over the next few months?
LONG XLE Nice long here. XLE broke (purple) triangle bearish but saw no follow through as it got bid up from 35.30 support on 08/27. Huge support between 34.26 & 35.30 with 34.88 being the 50% retracement of Covid low to high of Covid bounce. This support area has held since early May and should continue to hold unless we see a significant sell off in the broader markets. Falling wedge (yellow) coinciding with this support also. Could really see an explosive move here, and accompanied with a hard 34.30 stop Risk/Reward is highly favorable.
WTI at pivotal level, key moment for the market Technically, CL2! is at crucial level as it is challenging a key resistance area, corresponding to 2018 lows. A breach above this resistance could have major bullish implications for oil prices and for the weak energy sector (XLE), over the coming months. Significant increase in oil prices could be seen as inflationary, pushing yield to the upside and increasing value stock appetite. On the other end, a failure to surpass those levels would call for the continuation of the underperformance of the energy compartment. We are at crucial levels. Stay tuned.
$USOoil is back near it's 1987, 2000 and 2003 highs and being rejected by it's 2015 multilows and 2008 low. may just range for years now between 50 and 15 $XLE $XOP
Tech vs. (Financials & Energy)Is it Growth versus Value or Tech versus Financials and Energy
EW Tech vs. (EW Financials + EW Energy)
Divergences from Growth vs. Value have been notable in the past
TSLA Short! Target: $1000 - $1200 NASDAQ:TSLA
It seems pretty clear based on valuation standards that many tech companies are significantly overbought. Over the past two weeks there has been significant capital outflow from the technology sector while there has simultaneously been large capital inflow into commodity markets, especially oil and natural gas.
Head and shoulders pattern forming on the 2hr and 4hr charts. Looks like a great short set up to return to the longer-term price trend.
I'm not a TSLA hater, I like Elon Musk, but I think this is a great short set up. Just an idea, do your own research!
𝗖𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $CL_F Daily. Nice pop today over 200dmaComing into a resistance area I expect to hold (42.50-43.70) for a pullback. Could be a large one in August which is also when seasonality flips
$USO $XLE $XOM $CVX $XOP $GUSH $DRIP $SPY #Oil #CrudeOil #OOTT 🛢️
OPENING: XLE AUGUST 21ST 32/43 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 1.56/contract credit.
Notes: Camped out at the 20 delta with break evens at 30.44/44.56. Look to manage at side approaching worthless or break even test ... .
XLE ENERGY SECTOR - bouncing from Channel lowsAMEX:XLE is seen to bounce off channel lows & wedge breakout.
OIL index at critical point: updateThis is a follow up from my April post. (see link below if interested).
The target I had has been hit. We had a reversal candle today so far. So check after the close.
The low recently touched but did not go below the level "a or 1"(754) . If it does near term it would likely indicate that all this the up action is a correction. If it does not and price goes above the current near term downtrend line then likely we have more up action ahead.
I trade this with the XLE ETF. I went long today. Personally I will use a close below 754 as my stop. Process your way.
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBBY EARNINGS; XOP, XLE, EWW PREMIUM SELLINGEARNINGS:
Next week's earnings announcements are light, with options liquid underlying to play for volatility contract even lighter.
BBBY (52/119/18.8%*) announces on Wednesday after market close, so look to put on a play before the end of Wednesday's session. Pictured here is a July 17th (12 days) 11 short straddle, paying 2.03 as of Friday close, 18.8% of where the stock was trading at 10.81. Look to take profit at 25% max or otherwise manage the trade by rolling out to August if it doesn't work out fairly immediately.
DAL (43/89/12.3%*) also announces this week on Thursday. A July setup isn't paying much, so I'd be inclined to go out to August to make it more compelling, where the 23/36 short strangle paid 1.83 as of Friday close.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK/PERCENTILE AND SCREENED FOR >35% IMPLIED:
EWW (37/37/15.0%**)
EWZ (37/56/10.5%)
GDXJ (34/53/14.6%)
XLE (33/45/14.6%)
GDX (28/39/12.7%)
XOP (22/57/16.3%)
USO (9/51/13.2%)
The most bang for your buying power buck appears to lie in XOP, followed by EWW, XLE, and GDXJ.
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (41/36/10.0%)
IWM is the only broad market exchange-traded fund where the background implied remains greater than 35.
IRA DIVIDEND GENERATORS:
EWZ (37/56/10.5%)
... and EWZ the only dividend generator with a 30-day greater than 35.
* * *
Broad market volatility has come in quite a bit here, but SPY 30-day implied at 27.2% isn't exactly a "low volatility environment" either. Nevertheless, it's not a bad thing to sit back, let powder dry out a little bit in preparation for the next volatility wave and/or more productive earnings announcements, particularly with underlyings like NFLX, MSFT, and IBM announcing next week, along with a number of financials: C (36/55), WFC (45/54), BAC (33/48), JPM (32/43), MS (30/45), and GS (27/41).
* -- Percentage of stock price the July 17th short straddle was paying as of Friday close.
** -- Percentage of stock price the August 21st short straddle was paying as of Friday close.
THE WEEK AHEAD: ORCL, CCL, KMX EARNINGS; XLE, IWM, IYREARNINGS:
I'm not really seeing anything at the moment that meets my criteria for good liquidity, high rank/high implied to play this coming week for earnings-related volatility contraction plays.
While ORCL (53/44/9.8%) announces Tuesday after the market close, 30-day's only at 44 with the July at-the-money short straddle paying 9.8% of the stock price, which doesn't exactly get my motor running for a volatility contraction play.
CCL (47/142/31.6%) announces Thursday. It has the right volatility metrics and the July short straddle is paying a whopping 31.6% of the stock price, but most are playing this for a recovery from a coronavirus beat-down. For what it's worth, the July 15th 17 short put (19 delta; bullish assumption) is paying 1.17 at the mid price with a cost basis of 15.83 if assigned.
KMX (60/71/15.11%) announces on Friday morning, but isn't the most liquid thing in the world, with the July 17th 75/105 showing bid 3.60/mid 3.80/ask 4.00.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY:
XLE (55/61)
XLU (53/38)
SLV (51/38)
EWW (49/46)
GDXJ (49/63)
EWZ (45/61)
SMH (45/46)
GDX (45/41)
XOP (41/79)
USO (18/68)
Notes: I don't have any XLE on currently. The August 21st 32/48 (17 delta) is paying 1.76.
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (66/50)
EFA (42/36)
QQQ (41/34)
SPY (39/35)
Notes: If you're going to sell premium in broad market, small caps is probably the place to do it. Unfortunately, we're kind of mid-cycle here with July only having 34 days left in it and the August, 69, but if you're willing to go a bit longer with duration: IWM August 21st 113/159 (17 delta), paying 4.81.
DIVVY YIELDING EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS FOR THE IRA:
IYR (65/47)
EWA (57/44)
XLU (53/38)
EWZ (45/61)
HYG (45/26)
EFA (42/36)
SPY (39/35)
TLT (23/20)
EMB (23/18)
Notes: Pictured here is an IYR (3.51% yield) September 18th 65 short put paying 2.02 at the mid. I've been generally laddering out as an acquisitional play for the IRA, but July has only 34 days left, and there is currently no August (although there will probably be one post June opex), so a single September put would have to do.
