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XLE

OIH VS. XLE- They are "Twins" in long term. - In short term, since last high on MAY 17, 2018, OIH is weaker than XLE. - Lower lows and lower highs for OIH - OIH is on the supportive price formed by last two reversing points - XLE does not hit the lower, instead it has a higher low which looks like it has reversed the downtrend If XLE is the right, it means OIH has found or is close to its support too. Then the twins will climb up in the next weeks. If OIH is the right one, XLE will fall down from its supportive neck line which remains effective in the past 3 months. If this time is not typical, then who knows. Personally I prefer the former one, there is not much room for OIH to go down according to the historical low in JAN 2016.
AMEX:OIHLong
by tonyqs87
PLUG in to Power UpAlternative energy was a major industry during the Obama years, as his admin's attack on oil sent these alt plays soaring. There's several different types, from pure electric vehicles running on batteries (powered by energy produced burning fossil fuels, no less) to natural gas engines, nuclear and wind options, and in this case, hydrogen fuel cells. It's anyone's guess what the world will look like in 20 years, and as to what source of power prevails, well, determining that is a fool's errand. In my opinion, the best bet is to diversify across multiple types of alternative mobility, which is why I own oil and gas companies (specifically, refiners, MLPs, equipment suppliers, and oil majors) along with other types like natural gas (WPRT and CLNE), solar companies (via ETFs), and nuclear options (via ETFs). I didn't have a pure-play in the hydrogen fuel cell space, though, so I found this one for a spec play for the longer-term. This one will need several things to go right, for sure. It's loaded with debt, and hydrogen hasn't really taken off meaningfully. But times change quickly, as evidenced by pot stocks getting so high (sorry, couldn't help myself). At under $2 a share, this is like an option that doesn't expire. Even so, I'm using options because I don't want to commit the capital to shares. And this may take time... lots of time... to work. So... I bought January 15, 2021 $2 calls for 70 cents, so it has a little over 2 years to pan out for me. I'll be looking to sell shorter dated calls against it if shares catch bids, as I doubt any rally will be sustained unless there's a material change in the broader landscape for this type of fuel play. Support is underneath at $1.53. Resistance is overhead at the $2 level, then on up the Fib levels to the highs at $3.21. Even buying shares outright doesn't seem like a bad idea, just so long as you keep it small as it is a highly speculative play. Happy trading!
NASDAQ:PLUGLong
by EchoAlphaBravo
1
Paper Portfolio vs S&P500 - Update #1This is the first update for the video series here to grow the paper portfolio on TradingView in an attempt to beat the 'S&P index real time. Normally, I will compare the portfolio to the market, talk about weak vs strong stocks and sectors & go into what I will be changing moving forward. The portfolio has been able to get ahead of the general market and below are the specific percentage changes if they weren't clear in the video: AUGUST 2018 Portfolio = +1.83% 'S&P Index ('SPX) = +1.36% 'SPY ETF = +1.57% So far there is only a small difference between the market and the portfolio, but with adjustments and the market moving however it wants to, the changes should be expected to be more different over time. In general and in brief, my process of dealing with my portfolio according to my trading strategy is to check the health of my portfolio to determine where weakness is coming from, then run a stock screen according to my very own specific criteria to pick out the stocks that have high chance of performing very well, and finally an analysis of the market sectors to make sure changes I make will make sense. So this time around my portfolio suggested reducing exposure to stocks in Energy, Financials and Industrials. My stock screen, compared to the previous stock screen run at the beginning of the portfolio, suggested reducing exposure to stocks in Energy, Financials, Technology & Utilities and increasing exposure in Basic materials, Consumer goods, Healthcare and Industrials. The market sector ETFs from the video also echoed a similar idea, and so the orders will be placed for Monday. I am considering putting more weight in the stocks that have a better chance of doing well than before but we will see what happens over the next month. Again this is will not be a one time "get rich quick" process with excessive risk-taking or gambling, but a more disciplined approach to trading. It takes some work and it can be tough to maintain discipline, but after a while it becomes routine. Again, monthly updates on the current state of the portfolio will be continued and the next one can be expected to be made on 10/06/18 (1 month from now) and every month from that point onward. Starting capital - $10,000 Risk per trade - 1% Max. positions at a time - 20 Investment style - Equities long only (no short-selling, only stocks >$7, technical analysis > fundamental analysis) The stocks shown will not be shown as investment advice but rather shown as a form of education only. Comment on what you would like to see or hear more about! Thanks and stay tuned (will try to keep videos not too long)!
AMEX:XLUEducation
by themdtrader
XLE - Energy Sector About to Poop Itself or No?The energy sector has been performing badly over recent months, but not as bad as basic materials sector. Specifically leading the problem in the energy sector are oil & gas drilling, oil & gas exploration and production, oil & gas refining and marketing, oil-related service and equipment, renewable energy equipment & services, and uranium industries. These industries are making new lows over the past month and over the past quarter. It is quite early, but this should be on the radar for a potential shorting opportunity. If truly the beginning of a downward move, a further break of the support level around $72 would be a confirmation, and this should be expected within the next 2-4 months (pretty much from October - December, or even January) . Also, the idea of the downtrend could potentially be a recovery for a possible uptrend if the resistance levels around $76 and $78 are tested and broken. The financial sector was also showing some milder weakness but more time is needed to tell how the sector is behaving. Watch the energy sector; what do you guys think?
AMEX:XLE
by themdtrader
3
Oil Headed for a 10% Drop. This Would Be a Buying Opportunity$USO $XLE #Oil #trading These custom support resistance indicator lines show decent places to enter or exit. The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter. If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long. If your instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting. For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts). Find out more. Send Private Mail (PM) to @MasterCharts
TVC:USOIL
by mastercharts
Death Crosses AboundA few sectors are signaling troubles ahead, with their 50 day MA's crossing below their 200 day MA's. This chart picture shows SPY (upper left) as a broad gauge of market action. It has yet to experience the "death cross." However, the industrial stocks measured by XLI (upper right), materials stocks measured by XLB, and financial stocks measured by XLF have all experienced the death cross. Given their importance as a proxy for future growth, this seems to bode poorly for broader markets.
AMEX:XLF
by EchoAlphaBravo
XLE-WTI correlation; cue to XLE Cup and Handle 2-year breakoutXLE and WTI demonstrate high level of correlation i.e. move in same direction. XLE provides stock-ETF alternative for traders who do not trade WTI. Interesting to note that WTI has outperformed XLE since Q4 2017 while the latter was capped at a 2-year high printed in December 2016. Bullish view of WTI and XLE in previous piece I was looking for swing long WTI as a continuation trade. I see it sitting at potential support. At same time XLE is capped at 2-year high resembling a cup and handle pattern. If WTI long continuation is correct, XLE may do a breakout above this resistance. In fact there is room for XLE to catch up since it is underperforming WTI in the near term. Bearish alternative There is a bearish view. When correlation is found question is always which is correct A or B? What if WTI is bearish? Then XLE resistance is justified and the current underperformance would be easily justified as a divergence. I stick to the bullish view.
AMEX:XLELong
by colonelkink
THE WEEK AHEAD: XLE, XOPWith this quarter's earnings pretty much in the rear view mirror, there isn't much single name to play here, particularly since we start right back up again with earnings around the July monthly. Consequently, if you're going to play single name, you may get caught in a volatility expansion running into earnings, so if you absolutely can't resist the urge to pay single name, pay attention to when the next earnings announcements are for the underlying you're playing and take profit aggressively to avoid being "expanded" running into the announcement. All that being said, there isn't much volatility in single name underlyings at the moment anyway: ORCL (earnings in 17 days), XOM, DIS, CAT, and MSFT round out the top five, but all have background implied volatility at or below 25% and lie in the lower half of their respective 52-week ranges. As far as exchange-traded funds are concerned, there's no surprise there: energy and/or petro is where the volatility lies at the moment, with USO, XLE, and XOP in the top 5 (the others are FXE and XLU), with their ranks/background coming in at 63/30, 39/21, and 36/34, respectively. Pictured here is an XLE July 20th 70/80 short strangle that is slightly skewed to the downside, since I think that is where the risk lies. Here are the metrics: Probability of Profit: 70% Max Profit: $113/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/$1175/contract Break Evens: 68.87/81.13 Delta: -9.81 Theta: 3.00 As a potential defined risk alternative, consider an iron fly in the smaller XOP: the July 20th 34/41/41/48 has risk one to make one metrics, is worth a 3.51 credit, and will pay better than the XLE short strangle at 50% max, assuming that price stays within your break evens of 37.49 and 44.51 long enough for you to extract 25% max (.88 profit) out of the trade.
AMEX:XLE
by NaughtyPines
Indecisive S&P 500The SPY (SPX) is giving some mixed messages from various indicators. While the general feel seems to be a grind higher, it's important to note that we have stayed under the 61.8% retracement of the correction even after several attempts to push thru. Also, not depicted on this chart, but we failed to maintain the 100 day s.m.a. (I'll try to add that chart in the comment section.) We also formed an inside bar on the daily, so tomorrow's action should give insight for next week's trading. Of course, none of this is relevant if headlines or tweets of significance happen over the weekend. I'm playing towards the long side, but hedged with calls in UVXY, and I did that mainly because VIX maintained and closed above 15, and short-term signals suggested we may see volatility surge even more. Also, the Russell 2000 (RUT) is still strong, but it appears to be showing signs of exhaustion. Ditto the NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) and NASDAQ 100 (NDX). I really want to short this market, but I'm not fighting the tape. When it says its time, then it'll be time. :)
AMEX:SPYLong
by EchoAlphaBravo
USDWTI - Price approaching major support for long setupsHey fellow traders, I am traveling for both personal and business over the next two weeks and will not be posted as frequently as usual. If you haven't been following me you have missed a number of accurate predictions in the last few weeks such as the AUDUSD bullish breakout, JPYUSD bull trap, SP500 breakout, Gold price pop, Macy's bullish price explosion and a number of other calls. If you would like accurate analysis to supplement your own, please follow me and watch/like my videos. Now onto oil. After an explosive move high the market has finally reached a point of exhaustion and has begun falling back to a key support level. While this trend remains intact we want to be long and only long . Picking up pennies in front of a steam roller is not a winning strategy. With that in mind we are watching for USDWTI to reach the key area of 69-70 and throw a high quality bullish candlestick signal such as a bullish pin bar, bullish engulfing bar, 2 bar reversal, or an inside bar. Be watching this level closely.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by krugman87