XLE about to prepare for a spurt to the north? See how price reacts at the centerline/slding/AR-Lines ?
The SWAP in Nov. 16 marked the range and of course it has to come back to breath out.
Lastly the weak hands got scared out by a very hard and final drop (red bar).
Now I can imagine that time is right to collect some premium on the downside.
Even a RiskReversal my be a good trade.
P!
XLE
XLE for SaleXLE is in a larger uptrend from last February
- it has pulled back to a consolidation range
- there is large volume on the recent down move, these are buyers to me
- this sector is lagging the over all market
- we are entering seasonally bullish period for oil
I'm a buyer here, now that can be buying the underline, leveraged buying the underline, or selling volatility in the underline. The way of getting long is up to the individual. This is not a short term position (multi year).
Long RowanBullish price structure. Ideal stop below 17. 4x ev/ebitda.
Healthy cash flow and balance sheet.
Joint venture with Saudi Aramco.
Long RDCRowan has a joint venture with Saudi Aramco. Cash flow is healthy and enough backlog to sustain through 2020 imo. 3.5x ev/ebitda.
$72.00level holding. (XLE) entering the buy zone.The pivot level at $72 is being tested and holding, for now.
I feel the line of least resistance is higher. I am looking for $84 eventually.
I will be looking to buy dips b/w 72-65.
A move under 65 and I would rethink my position.
No position at the moment.
Energy stocks might be overvalues against oil pricesThe break of the pennant within the possible head and shoulders complex could be the deciding factor. In terms of risk/rewad I prefer to short energy stocks against oil. But the way the chart is forming on a daily metric leads me to believe the trend of stronger energy stocks against oil prices will continue in the long term.
Long Term Sector RotationSPX vs Major Sectors. I added IBB to cover Biotech.
Please comment. My understanding at this point is to stay in sectors which have good fundamentals and have been relative laggards. The 3 bottom ones at this point seem to be Financials, Technology and XLU / XLP.
Since utilities is a risk-averse sector, so in a pro-growth environment I may want to go with the other 3. XLB is like the coyote / fox from Mickey mouse that runs a few meters off the cliff thinking its still running on solid ground before realizing that there's nothing below it and then falls like a rock. Great if you can time it right.
S&P 500 Index @ 1h Chart @ incl. XLF & XLE since Trump ElectionPerformance of the SPX, XLF & XLE - end of last month (November`16)
closed by 2034.5 SPX (round about +8,08% this Year & -1,505% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
closed by 18.95 XLF (round about +18,79% this Year & 13,63% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
closed by 60.16 XLE (round about +23,72% this Year & -6,752% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
Both sectors had the worst performance the last years, while Obamas presidents time.
Aftermath is all clear, i also didn`t except an outbreak like this. But since this month - i am prefering to see the lows in some shares (even of both sectors) as an buying oppurtunity. Why ??? Let it me so explain ... Under president Trump i can`t imagine that our new president will make policy against both sectors - even forcing laws to shoot their expansion ambitions down. "The Occupy WallStreet Movement was aftermath the all-time high of all anti WallStreet Americans - in the review even maybe the bing gang of make american great again - from the top to the button ... even from wallstreet to every american consumer and tax payer"
How ever,
i am not an political analysis or even expert - but the chart is speaking fo itself.
From this point of views i am prefering the US Yields (Gold as hedge is useless), US Equities & even some sectors (even like Energy & Financials).
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
XLEEnergy stocks have rallied enough here. Unable to break key Fib level with divergent momentum and an OPEC that will most likely not come to an agreement. Oh yeah, and junk bonds have rallied way too far as well. All in all, this sector has had everything in the world go right to get to this point and it's still flagging. We could see some sideways chop for a little bit, but over all, I think this puppy is headed much lower, below the January lows, but probably not till much later in 2017.