POSSIBLE "PATHS OF PRICE"A BREAK ABOVE CAN LEAD TO TARGETS OF $45-$48 IF NOT HIGHER
OR ANOTHER NEW LOW TO $18-16
XLE
XLE -- MARCH 18TH 43/47/60/64 IRON CONDORWith an implied volatility rank of 83 and an implied volatility of 46, XLE represents a good, non earnings premium selling play here.
March 18th XLE 43/47/60/64 Iron Condor
Probability of Profit: 66%
Max Profit: $94/contract
Buying Power Effect: $306/contract
CRUDE "WEEKLY VIEW"WEEKLY PERSPECTIVE....
26.06 - 23.80
MIGHT CAUSE A REACTION.....LOWER TARGETS OF COMPLETION ARE STILL IN "TIME"
$CL_F $USO $DWTI $UWTI $OIL $XLE $DTO $UCO $CVX $XOM $HAL $EXXI $SCO $ETE $XOP
XLE PREMIUM SELLING PLAYXLE Feb 26th 47.5/59 short strangle
POP%: 73
Max Profit: $144/contract
BPE: ~$531
BE's: 46.06/60.44
Energy sector RSI divergence. Let's make a right shoulder Later on the cloud will reject it, but we'll have a strong fomo rally prior.
Potential Aggressive C buy - Harmonics setup towards FOMCThe Head and Shoulders pattern I mentioned on my latest analysis for XLE has reached its final target level and now we have an option for an Aggressive Bullish C entry in a bearish Bat pattern (yellow).
This setup basically means that you buy the C point in what could turn out to be a bearish Bat pattern, aiming towards the D point (near 80$) as longer term setup. The 65-68$ zone must be considered also as target zone as the price should meet the downtrend line there if indeed it'll rally from the 60$ support zone.
Stop loss should be with some safety distance below the A point. In the chart I'm showing an example of 3.5% Risk with potential 10% reward (almost 3 R/R ratio).
Despite the potential bullish setup, we don't know that the price indeed intend to rally towards the D point so there's definitely a good chance that $XLE will continue lower and break below 58$ so you have to consider this risk.
Tomer, The MarketZone
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Anyone looking to get Exxon at the bottom? RSI giving a higher low, risk to reward warrants a look to long here back into the monthly cloud. Great longer term entry and relative strength to XLE.
MACRO VIEW: XLF AT MACRO UNCERTAINTY, STILL RECOVERING FROM 2008Financial SPDR ETF is still recovering from 2008 losses and did not make it back in terms of prices.
On long term basis - XLF has only recently crossed back the 10-year mean upwards (now at 21.50) and have been in 5-year uptrend until the recent August selloff. Currently it is trading within 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean, showing no macro trend.
On short term basis - XLF is also showing no trend, as the price is trading within 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means.
In summary, the 5-year uptrend will resume only after price will cross back 24 (5-year uptrend border). Until then, trend is lateral.
MACRO VIEW: XLE AT MACRO UNCERTAINTY, ON DOWNTREND RISKEnergy SPDR ETF is at macro uncertainty with a prospect of continued fall (much like the oil market)
On long term basis - XLE is trading below its 10-year mean at 68.5, signalling uncertainty - as price close to a long term means indicates an outlier event, with institutional traders unsure of what to do with the stock. The price is also close to a potential macro downtrend, as it trades close to 5-year downtrend border at 66 (lower 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean)
On short term basis - XLE confirms the downward risk, as price is trading very close to 1-year downtrend border at 67.5 (lower 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean). Thus if price falls below 67.5 it will have good probability of falling below 66, entering a downtrend on 5-year basis.
Gold Leaps Higher As Worries MountFollowing the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, gold has seen a massive two day move that brought the precious metal to five-week highs. Worries mount as market participants are beginning to realize that the Federal Reserve is stuck within a liquidity trap.
The minutes statement indicated that the Fed saw risks to near-term inflation (as the five-year breakeven rate hit five-year lows) and growth. The once “sure bet” on a September rate hike quickly dwindled, and the possibility of another round of quantitative easing is growing.
There has been a lack of attention to two key revelations within mainstream media:
The Bank of International Settlements (the central bank of central banks) and the St. Louis Fed have come out publicly to express that quantitative easing has been the epitome of failure. Both institutions have stated that the massive balance sheet expansion and zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) has not added any growth to the real economy.
The BIS has even gone as far as to say that the world is defenseless against the next crisis, which many “Main Street” analysts believe is around the corner. In regards to a efficacy of ZIRP, the white paper publish by the St. Louis Fed said:
“A Taylor-rule central banker may be convinced that lowering the central bank’s nominal interest rate target will increase inflation. This can lead to a situation in which the central banker becomes permanently trapped in ZIRP.
With the nominal interest rate at zero for a long period of time, inflation is low, and the central banker reasons that maintaining ZIRP will eventually increase the inflation rate. But this never happens and, as long as the central banker adheres to a sufficiently aggressive Taylor rule, ZIRP will continue forever, and the central bank will fall short of its inflation target indefinitely. This idea seems to fit nicely with the recent observed behavior of the world ís central banks.”
But, this is not just the Fed’s problem. Quantitative easing has been a failure in Japan and Europe. In a “defenseless” world and crisis looming, gold stands to greatly benefit.
Price action for gold is fueled by short-covering (near-term) because the dollar just base-jumped of the hopes and expectations of a Wall Street recovery. However, as Pandora’s box is opened, gold’s upside potential becomes great.
Resistance can be found at $1,162, which is slightly below the descending trend created in late January. If price action can close above these key levels, gold will attempt to challenge the 200-day EMA near $1,182. The 50 percent Fib. retracement of January’s downtrend is at $1,189.
As long as the dollar remains soft, gold will be relatively supported at these levels. Although, price taking can take place and healthy. The daily RSI is approaching 69, but the weekly and monthly RSI is below 45.
Moreover, the weekly chart is showing a bullish +/- DMI crossover, suggesting a potential inflection point in the most hated asset on Wall Street.
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XLE Broke Significant Support on Crude Price WoesPlease check out the full article here: oilpro.com
The Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLE) has been battered, and it is starting to bruise.
With the price of crude now just hovering $43 per barrel, this exchange-traded fund (ETF) is likely to get a whole lot cheaper.
This fund has support near-term because Wall Street is discounting recent events in the oil industry, as they did during the second-half of 2014. It also pays a dividend of 2.93 percent (SEC 30-day).
Thinking back, the Federal Reserve's call that lower gas prices (via lower oil) was "unambiguously good" is striking a nerve with those laid of in the energy sector, which shed nearly 68,000 jobs last month alone.
With a technical perspective, the XLE has confirmed downside weakness with a close below the major support trend created on 2009's bottom.
The trend's momentum could weakening slightly as traders fish off the bottom, but the strength of the trend still remains quite strong - ADX over 20 and a substantial divergence between +/-DMI.
Near-term range for XLE is $64.39 and $71.46, while a "relief" rally could spark buying up to $74.12; but, crude would have to play nicely.
If current price support breaks, XLE will trend lower within the disjointed angle (purple dotted line with grey shaded body), which represents widening support and resistance.
Additionally, the "death cross" is close to completion on the weekly chart. This bearish technical signal occurs when the 50-week moving average dips below the 200-week moving average.
At $43.27/bbl, crude is less than $2.00 about its inflation-adjusted price.
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TSLA $220.14: 7-1/2 month falling trendline break triggers furthTSLA rallied off 203.50 (April 17, 2015 higher low), following a 7-1/2 month falling trendline break as shown on the daily chart, to return above the 200 day moving average, posting new 2-1/2 month highs. Bullish MACD suggests there is scope for further upside towards the 225.48 resistance level (February 5, 2015 lower high). Clearing there would accelerate the upleg towards 236.65 (October 1, 2014 swing low), near 50% of the 291.42/181.40 fall. On a pullback, the immediate support level lies at 211.69 (April 22, 2015 low). Beneath rests the key 203.50 support which should hold dips.
Outlook:
Short term: Buy on pullbacks
Long term: Bullish
QQQ $108.22: Approaches 7-week triangle resistance QQQ rebounded off 105.55 (April 17, 2015 low) to test the 108.38 range high (April 13, 2015) just beneath 7-week triangle resistance (March 2, 2015 high and March 26, 2015 low). The daily MACD remains bullish, suggesting scope for further upside. If bulls manage to overcome 108.38/108.41 (April 21, 2015 high) and the triangle upper bounds, that would signal a triangle breakout and trigger further gains towards 109.07 (March 20, 2015 high) and then 109.41 (March 2, 2015 record high). However, if the 108.38/108.41 resistance zone caps the rally, a downside reversal below 105.55 would prolong the consolidation and expose the 104.24/104.34 key support area (March 26/April 6, 2015 lows) which may hold dips again.
Outlook:
Short term: bullish
Long term: bullish
XLF $24.17: Forms a 6-month symmetrical triangle patternXLF has been consolidating within a 6-month symmetrical triangle pattern (from October
15, 2014 low and December 29, 2014 high). The key support lies at 23.78 (March 26, 2015 low), near the triangle lower bounds and the 200 day moving average currently at 23.64. While the 23.78/23.64 support area holds dips, if bulls manage to reclaim 24.54 decisively (April 16, 2015 high near the triangle upper bounds), that would suggest a triangle breakout and trigger further gains towards 24.78 (March 23, 2015 high) then 25.14 (December 29, 2014 record peak). However, a breakdown below the 23.64 support area would signal topping and weaken towards 22.89 (February 2, 2015 low).
Outlook:
Short term: neutral
Long term: bullish while above the 200 day moving average
IYT $156.89: Consolidates within a 5-month falling channel
IYT has been consolidating within a 5- month falling channel as shown on the weekly chart. While the 155.68 weekly low (April 20, 2015) holds dips, strength back above 157.93 (April 20, 2015 weekly high) would signal a 5-week range break on the upside and trigger further gains towards 165.69 (March 16, 2015 weekly high) near the channel upper bounds. A sustained break above the latter is needed to confirm channel breakout for a move towards 167.80 (November 24, 2014 record high). However, a push below 155.68 would delay bulls and shift the focus towards the 152.03 (April 6, 2015) near the channel support which should hold.
Outlook:
Short term: neutral
Long term: bullish
Xle time to turn back down? I've been waiting for this nearly two weak, two weeks ago I found out there was a gap at 82 area. Now, the is filled already, also, the chart looks a little lit exhausted to run up. The M top could be exited here. To be honest, I could be wrong. But, anyway 1st target 79.
XLY $76.08: Consolidates within a 6-week rangeXLY has been consolidating within a 6-week range between the 77.13 YTD peak (March 23, 2015) and 74.23/24 (March 11/26, lows). While the 74.99 support (April 17, 2015 low) holds dips, further gains above 76.14 (10 day moving average) would open the 76.83 resistance (April 13, 2015) ahead of 77.13. However, a break below 74.99 would prolong the consolidation and retest the 74.23/24 range support area.
Outlook:
Short term: neutral
Long term: bullish
GOOGL $543.25: Remains range-bound within a 14-month falling chaGOOGL has been range bound since posting the 615.04 record high (February 24, 2014), forming a 14-month falling channel as shown on the weekly chart. 529.00 serves as the immediate support (April 13, 2015 low) which may hold dips. Back above 553.27 (April 13, 2015 weekly high) is needed to suggest basing and extend strength towards 583.20 (March 2, 2015 high) beneath the channel upper bounds. However, a break below 529.00 would prolong the consolidation and offer scope for a retest of the 503.48 area (January 26, 2015 spike low near the channel support) which should contain the downleg.
Outlook:
Short term: neutral
Long term: bullish
XHB $35.75: Consolidates above a 2-month range support at 35.01XHB has been consolidating within a 2-month range between March’s 35.01 low and the 37.31 YTD peak (March 31, 2015). While the 35.01 range support holds dips, back above the 36.59 resistance (April 16, 2015 high) would suggest basing and offer scope for further bullish momentum towards 37.31. Clearance above the latter is needed to complete the 2-month long consolidation and extend the uptrend trend higher. However, if bears manage to break below the key 35.01 support area (which houses the 89 day moving average) would signal near term topping and expose 33.73 (200 day moving average0.
Outlook:
Short term: Neutral
Long term: Bullish while the 200 day moving average holds
