$DVN Earnings$DVN has earnings Tuesday. I am eyeing a pullback in oil names headed into the week, but a beat could send this to new ATH
XLE
Energy sector, bullish?AMEX:XLE is showing signs of strength on the weekly time frame. Most oil & gas companies have had a great run YTD, and the energy is sector is among the few green sectors YTD.
$XLE: +6.65% WIN, Taking Half Off This might continue to run, but I want to take profits into strength +6.65%
I am only taking half of the position. For the rest of position stop loss is at break-even.
This way I am GUARANTEED profit for at least +3.33% on the whole position.
With this technique I have massively improved my worst case scenario.
Probability is high for a pullback.
Comparing XLE performance and XOMFirst thing first, let's take a look at the components of XLE here
You can see that Exxon Mobil and Chevron takes up almost half of this ETF portfolio. Unless you are familiar with the FA components of individual stocks, investing in an ETF like XLE can be a cost effective and hassle free approach.
Performance wise, you can see that from March 20 to current date, XLE has gone up almost 200% vis-a-vis 170% for Exxon Mobil. Also, buying into individual stocks can be costly as well along with the risks contained in a single company. For detailed explanation, read here
$XLE - moving Stop-loss to break evenThis is @ +4.34% winner. I will move stop loss to break-even to improve worst case scenario.
10/23/22 SMSM Energy Company ( NYSE:SM )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Oil & Gas Production)
Market Capitalization: 5.455B
Current Price: $44.50
Breakout price trigger: $45.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $43.30-$39.70
Price Target: $54.30-$55.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 62-66d
Contract of Interest: $SM 1/20/23 50cTrade price as of publish date: $3.70/contract
XLE BO:bottom@66,Support@76, next stops are 90/98/107BULLISH CASE: XLE held a June low @66 which is a 0.618 retracement. It formed a triangle & has since bounced off the base very strongly with 2 gap-ups. Moving averages 50, 100 & 200 are forming a ribbon & are all pointing up. 76 is a strong support with volume profile.
If this breakout from the triangle sees a follow-thru in the next few days, XLE may double the triangle & target the next 2 Fib levels at 98 & 107 with some consolidation at the recent ATH at 90.
Crude oil & Natural gas bouncing strongly.
10-yr rate TNX & dollar index DXY turns up & are also bouncing higher.
BEARISH CASE: If this will be a false breakout, then the 2 recent up-gaps will be filled with XLE going back inside the triangle.
Not trading advice
Buy Oil WTI - IMO should bounce on this L/T +++ Ascending Trend line Line - L/T Technical support from March 2020 lows.
Using a weekly candle chart,
Crude right on an upward trend line testing, using the March 2020 low.
Crude should bounce from here current level having been tough to break over the last 2 years.
Unless we are about to live a historical correction moment on Oil (liquidation/ news flow / Itan) the current price action set up is favouring longs here.
As an aside we are also reaching a 50% retardement Fibonacci ratio level taking High 2022/ March 2020 Low.
NYMEX:CL1!
XLE breaking down from Ascending Channel - global slowdown?XLE just broke down from its ascending channel, which might be signalling that the market is pricing in a global slowdown.
XLE also broke down from an ascending channel in '08 and '14. In the case of 2008, SPX crashed. But in 2014, SPX traded sideways/flat for a while
Long | XLE | Energy Sector is risingAMEX:XLE
Possible Scenario: LONG
Evidence: Price Action, geo political fundamental analysis.
PTs are defined on the chart, this is a very safe bet for 2022 and following year, I will buy Call options for 2022 now and even my buy-zone.
*This is my idea and could be wrong 100%.
Long | XLEAMEX:XLE
Possible Scenario: LONG
Evidence: Unusual option activity, price action
This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
* Consider political conflicts and geo political interests, this ETF is a crystal ball
CRUDE to continue downward spiralCrude prices are oddly (well, perhaps not so) set to spiral down further below 80. Here is technically why it would...
Light Crude Oil futures weekly chart show the recent consolidation around the weekly 55EMA, and that it appears to have broken down decisively, particularly closing at the lowest in the last 5 weeks. Technical indicators, particularly the RPM, suggest more momentum as does the weekly candlestick.
The daily chart had a 55EMA failure with a large bearish engulfing candle that overwhelmed a decently large bullish candle the day before. This was followed by a down candle, completing a Three Outside Down candlestick pattern. As if it was not enough, a Gap Down was further followed by a candlestick that closed the week with a long top tail. The daily MACD crossed under the signal line and pushed further down into the bearish territory.
Taken together, all these are simply pointing to more downside, likely to press below 80, targeting 70 towards the end of September.
On another note, the USD appears to be technically bullish and pushing further up. Ceteris paribus , a rising USD usually pushes Crude prices lower.
Energy XLE idea (02/09/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range
XLE Energy Sector Index is expected to rise to target the third wave. Since prices are above the long-term support level of 70.59, the key support point at 65.48, we expect a downward correction at the moment. Prices are below 85.23. We expect a correction in wave b and then descend again to complete wave (ii).
$XLE: Weekly and monthly uptrendNice signal in energy names. Macro and fiscal policy are sure making the Fed's life hard. The trend in commodities, energy, value vs growth remains bullish, same as the trend in the Dollar vs the Euro. The recent drop in inflation and oil created a very low risk buy opportunity in commodities in general. I've rotated away from my growth focused portfolio in the prior week, and am long $XLE and other names in my portfolio. I suggest you do the same, very interesting time, where the easy money disappeared from markets and people will likely get schooled time and time again trying to gamble in the same garbage names as between 2020 and 2022.
Stay safe out there!
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Energy XLE idea (31/08/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range In addition to the XLE Energy Sector Index, it is expected to rise to target the third wave. Since prices are above the long-term support level of 70.59, the main support point at 65.48, at the moment, we expect a correction to the downside. Prices are below 85.23. We expect a correction in wave b.
XLE and SPX Divergence Predicts Crashes?Whenever the price of XLE and SPX diverge, we seem to get a massive crash.
XLE creeps higher, but SPX makes new lows. Historically, what tends to happen next is that SPX falls off a cliff, as was the case in the 2000 and 2008 bear markets.
Today in 2022, XLE was creeping higher as SPX was making new lows. What happens next?
Energy XLE idea (29/08/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range In addition rise is expected in the XLE Energy Sector Index, targeting the third wave. Since prices are above the support Prise 70.59 in the long term, and the main support point at prices of 65.48. Currently, we expect the decline to correct since the prices are below 84.56
Energy XLE idea (26/08/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range Further rise is expected in the XLE Energy Sector Index, targeting the third wave. Since prices are above the support point of 70.59, we expect a rise in the near term and also in the long term, and the main support point is at prices of 65.48
8/24/22 OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY)
Sector: Energy Minerals (Oil & Gas Production)
Market Capitalization: 69.778B
Current Price: $74.91
Breakout price: $75.60
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $71.55-$65.95
Price Target: $85.50-$86.60
Estimated Duration to Target: 30-33d
Contract of Interest: $OXY 10/21/22 85c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.87/contract
8/24/22 CVXChevron Corporation ( NYSE:CVX )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Integrated Oil )
Market Capitalization: 319.434B
Current Price: $163.19
Breakout price: $164.35
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $156.20-$146.90
Price Target: $180.00-$182.70
Estimated Duration to Target: 48-50d
Contract of Interest: $CVX 10/21/22 170c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.60/contract
URAs breaking out on volumeUranium miners jumped over short-term resistance this morning (9 & 21 DSMAs). With strong volume at 11 am and support at 200 DSMA having held from two days ago, I'm looking for URA to maybe catch its breath at the 50 DSMA before pushing through and targeting 28 in September.
decision time for OILOil has run into overhead resistance at the 50 DSMA after an impressive 5 day run off the most recent lows. Does it now cower in the wake of a hawkish Powell at Jackson Hole later this week, or does it say Come and Get Me, Big Guy?!
Energy XLE idea (24/08/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range Further rise is expected in the XLE Energy Sector Index, targeting the third wave. Since prices are above the support point of 70.59, we expect a rise in the near term and also in the long term, and the main support point is at prices of 65.48
