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XLE

$OXY Bearish Sentiment - In Line with Energy Sector Rather than look at XLE or the energy sector as a whole - looking at an integrated Oil and Gas company with more volatility gives us a better picture of the environment. There are obviously severe worries of a recession - hence the breaking of correlation between OXY and OIL futures the past couple days. With oil futures falling as well, the backdrop sets a fairly bearish tone for the short term. Looking at the levels, OXY could fall into the mid 40s prior to consolidation and then possible bullish setup. Bullish case: Russia and/or OPEC production shortages supply constraining...US Demand stays strong...GDP growth stays positive for Q2 Bearish case: Oil continues to fall due to expected demand falling... Russia/OPEC issues subside/aren't as bad as expected...Fiscal policies before midterms
NYSE:OXYShort
by MatthewMontella
XLE breaks TL but holds vol profile zone(75-77); is 71 or 65 nxtUpdate on my last post that XLE energy sector must hold the red trendline at 79. BEARISH CASE shortterm: On Thursday it broke not only the TL but also broke below my yellow consolidation box.(middle one). As of now it is holding the volume profile zone at 75 to 77 area. Looking at the heavy selling volume in all sectors, a double bottom at 71 is very probable. 76.70 is the 0.618 Fib level while 71 is the 0.786 Fib. Worse, we may even see a retest of the blue wedge at the 65 pivot line. That will be a 100% retracement back to the Feb 24 invasion low. (It broke out of the blue wedge & retested it last Jan 2022 & proceeded to make a measured 10 points move to 82 & then another 10 points move to 92) Still BULLISH longterm: If XLE bottoms out at the current volume profile zone & reclaims the red trendline in the next few days, we may see a retest of 92 or maybe even push another 10 points higher to 102. You may ask if that is still possible with a slowing economy? Bear markets on average starts 5 months before actual recession (2 consecutive Quarters of negative GDP). We are now at the 5th month but employment & production & consumption numbers still suggest recession is still far out maybe in 2H2023. Either we are in uncharted territory with a prolonged bear market or maybe we will see another melt-up rally first before recession kicks in. This will be possible if inflation & rates slow down with the FED pivoting to less hawkish stance in September after the already priced-in June & July 75 basis point rate hikes. Note: A slowly rising dollar will not be good for commodities like oil, food, industrial metals & gold but it will help cushion the bad effects of inflation on buying power…good for imports but bad for exports. Not trading advice. Pls like & follow if this helps!
AMEX:XLELong
by xtremerider8
XLE may retrace to 82 @ TL; more pain to come if 79 breaksUpdate on my previous warning that XLE is soon to retrace. BULLISH CASE: XLE reached ATH 93.31, my FIb 2.0 target & retraced. It should bounce at the red Dec2021 trendline @ 82…FIb 1.0 which is a previous April top. BEARISH CASE: XLE had a very impressive run up since its pandemic low & a correction is overdue at this ideal time when extreme high oil price may dampen demand & OPEC & US to increase production. This correction will be temporary since China has re-opened from lockdown & demand will slowly increase going forward pointing a higher wave 3 or a wave 5 after a potential wave 4 correction whichever case may play out. But if 79 (FIB 0.50 retracement from 65 to ATH) is lost, more pain will come to the broader market SPX. This may also mean that wave 3 has peaked & an ABC wave 4 down may be underway. Not trading advice
AMEX:XLELong
by xtremerider8
Crude on track to rocket up...It has been weeks (maybe months) since Crude had yet to commit to an up move (clearly) although it gave early indication of the imminent move. This past week was volatile and eventually closed the week relatively bullish. The weekly MACD crossed up and appears set to continue the momentum, slowly but surely. The daily chart shows an invasion into a gap area, forming a resistance. The week closed near the top of the range, but has not yet decisively cleared the resistance. Technicals are supportive of a breakout. Upside targets are maintained, but time adjusted for another 3-6 weeks buffer.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
XLE a W3 BO of 2GANN FAN lines+wedge move or a bulltrap to W4?XLE formed a big H&S pattern in 2002 & has since bottomed during pandemic. From there, it started a blue rising wedge which had a more chance of breaking down. However, due to the Russian invasion, it broke to the upside above the H&S green neckline.. Measuring the height of this wedge gives a target of 82.40 which XLE had reached & recently exceeded. It also exceeded 2 GANN FAN lines from 2002 & 2020 lows but registered a big red candle the next day. I think XLE is currently at an impulse wave 3 of 3. XLE must hold 79 for wave 3 to continue higher. Losing 79 may signal a corrective wave 4 of 3 back down to retest the wedge at near the 68 level before a wave 5 0f 3 starts. It may even retest the green H&S neckline started in 2002 approximately near the 66 level. Supports at 79, 68 & 66. Resistances at 88 (1.618 Fib) & 92.24(2.0 Fib of recent wave b in a zigzag move) There is better chance of XLE holding 79 with wave 4 & do the last wave 5 of 3 as the world energy crisis is not abading in the near future. XLE is the ultimate winning sector for months. Not trading advice
AMEX:XLELong
by xtremerider8
Crude Oil UP ah!For the past month or so, been talking about higher Crude prices in the making. Here we are closer to that... The Weekly chart closed at a monthly high, and with such gusto that it is the most bullish looking candle in the past 6 weeks! This came after many indications and warnings from weekly candlestick patterns and daily technicals as outlined previously in the last couple of weeks. So, now the weekly technical indicators are showing a bullish turn. The daily chart have a late week Crude Oil price spike, that is meeting a gap resistance, and the coming week should break through... this is supported by the RPM and MACD technicals. 125 then 155... and this is an off-cycle surge, so am expecting a quick surge really.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
A Rising Wedge in the XLE is setting up a shortXLE looks like its forming a nice Rising Wedge on the daily chart. The bad news is we're heading into the Summer which usually leads to higher demand, and Rising Wedges aren't particularly good performers from a statistical standpoint. The good news is that they do offer about 2:1 odds of a reversal once the Wedge breaks. In addition, the momentum indicators are displaying significant bearish divergences, and regardless of seasonality, the macro picture is suggesting global slowing of demand for energy. Therefore, the sum of the evidence makes this look like a good short candidate for a swing trade. Where it gets a little more tricky is deciding how to get short. As mentioned above, there's about a 2/3 chance of a reversal. The problem is that historically speaking, the average moves of the reversals (-8%) aren't much to get excited about. Over the next 30 days, the Options market is anticipating about +/ $8.84 of movement. This aligns nicely with the idea of a breakdown from the wedge, which could take price down to the Point Of Control on the Volume Profile aruond $76. All things considered, I like the idea of trading this with a defined risk position like a vertical spread. Something like buying the $80 PUT and selling the $78 in the July 1st expiration. This is trading for about a $0.51 debit and would mature to somewhere north of $1.00 if XLE falls to $76 over the next 37 days. Thanks for reading; all the standard risk disclaimers apply .
AMEX:XLEShort
by InnerMotionTrading
1