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XLF

Banks are drowning, bailout needed!US is swirling in a mountain of debts and with QE4 , they are printing more money to help shore up the failing industries, tourism, hospitality, oil, banks, airlines, etc. The debts mountain are getting higher and higher, breaking its previous peak year after year. And this is definitely not good in the long run when the bubble breaks! Here, we compare the XLF ETF . Click on the Holdings and you can see the top 10 holdings which shows the list of financial institutions. I expect more room to go down towards the support zone at 14.98 to 17.31 where it probably might have a pullback. Thereafter, we have to assess the situation and see if price action supports and heads higher or continue to go down. Here, we see the legendary Warren Buffett spending 2.2 billion to buy back Berkshire shares in 2019. See, even someone of his level does not time the market as the price of Berkshire continues to go lower (meaning his 2.2billion purchase would incur a paper loss). But important lesson is he is buying them much cheaper though he does not know when it is going to bottom. So, Citigroup and other banks are still a sell for me , for now.
AMEX:XLFShort
by dchua1969
XLF Financials Next movesFinancials yesterday did very well and rallied almost 6% by end of the day. While XLF is near a support level and has bounced off of its Monday lows, in order for a meaningful move higher, i feel that it needs to consolidate and build momentum. See example in yellow box back in Aug 2019, where it consolidated to pushed higher after a ~10% fall. I'd like to see the VI get above its 24 moving avg, and RSI diverge higher as price moves sideways. In times of down turns as severe as this, while we may at times get snap back both up and down with little reason or cause, in order for one to be fully committed to either side, we need to see evidence of consolidation, and not just guess that one day it will chop higher and next day it will chop lower. Cheers.
AMEX:XLF
by grenadetrade
XLF Ascending Triangle Level of Resistance $31Purely a speculation on my behalf that XLF will reject again at this $31 level like it has done several times thus far. Alternate plays would be $TLT to the upside. Bitcoin USD showing risk off action that leads me to believe the selloff isn't over and the reversal from the big upside at the open this morning for the QQQ, etc. also leads me to believe that we're not done with the selling. (I'm wrong more often than I'm right on the timing of things so may not happen immediately). But I've been using bitcoin as my compass here lately and it's been an accurate direction indicator for the broader market. Goodluck. These are my opinions only, and not trading advice.
AMEX:XLFShort
by StockPickingEnthusiast
2
TRADE IDEA: XLF FEBRUARY 21ST 30/32 LONG PUT VERTICALWith the financials at a multi-year double top, a bet that financials announcing next week will disappoint in the aggregate in this easy/easing rate environment. Metrics: Max Profit: $96/contract Max Loss: $104/contract (which is what you'd pay to put this on). Break Even: 30.96 versus 30.69 spot Notes: Max profit is realized on a finish below the short strike at 30; anything below the break even of 30.96 is a winner; and max loss is realized on a finish above the long at 32. A basic risk one to make one, which is what I like to see out of these directional shots.
AMEX:XLFShort
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: USO, EWZ, XLF; VIX/VIX DERIVATIVESEARNINGS: Earnings kick off in earnest this week with a bevy of financials (WFC, GS, JPM, C, BAC, MS). Generally speaking, I haven't played these in the past due to low background implied, and nothing has changed in that regard this go-around from a premium selling standpoint: WFC (30/21), GS (27/24), JPM (20/21), C (16/23), BAC (0/22), MS (0/24). That being said, it looks like the financial sector exchange-traded fund XLF (5/16) has put in a multi-year double-top, so I could see taking a bearish assumption directional shot on the notion that earnings in this sector may disappoint in a low interest rate environment. For example, the XLF February 21st 30/32 long put vertical costs 1.04/contract to put on, has a max loss metric of .96 and a break even of 30.96 versus a Friday close of 30.69, which are the kind of the risk one to make one/break even at/near where the underlying is currently trading metrics I like to see out of these. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS >10% OF STOCK PRICE: UNG (36/40), February SLV (33/20), July USO (32/32), April EWZ (29/26), June GLD (26/12), January '21 Pictured here is an EWZ 20-delta short strangle set up in the first expiry in which the at-the-money short straddle is paying greater than 10% of the stock price, 1.91 credit, delta/theta 0/1.41. Although I would ordinarily go with the underlying paying in the shortest duration, we will start to run into seasonality issues with UNG in the February or March cycles (depending, of course, on Mother Nature), so would rather not hit that underlying non directionally here. And USO can be somewhat of a pain to trade due to its smallness. BROAD MARKET WITH THE FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS >10% OF STOCK PRICE: EEM (66/16), September EFA (20/11), December SPY (14/12), November QQQ (9/17), September IWM (0/15), September Well, we're in a volatility lull here, so this comes as no surprise that shorter duration isn't paying. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 12.56, with the March, April, and May /VX contracts trading at 16.04, 16.56, and 16.80, respectively, so term structure trades remain viable in those months. VXX and UVXY -- my go-to derivatives instruments -- both hit new 52 week lows last week, and VXX finished the week at 14.12, UVXY at 11.59. Although VIX has room to trundle lower from here, it probably wouldn't be a bad thing to pull off a few units in profit put on higher up the ladder and then wait for the next >25% pop in VIX (which would be a modest pop at 16 or so) to start legging back in.
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines
2
XLF consolidation or will bulls continue to push upTICKER: $XLF Unlike SPY and QQQ, XLF confirmed its daily bull flag. However, we did see a red candlestick on Friday 12/13 to close out the week. Could this be the first indication of consolidation for the market? Keep in mind the financial sector is one of the top three section in the market. Also keep in mind that we closed green for ten weeks straight (see weekly chart). Weekly RSI is approaching 70, but anything above daily support of $30.13 is just a higher low. Break 30.13 and it will be the start of weekly consolidation. IMPORTANT: XLF is not at its all time high. We are in the resistance zone with XLF's ALL TIME HIGH being $30.97.
AMEX:XLF
by DerekTradeEZ
XLF Strong compared to other sectorsTicker: $XLF Huge gap up open and bulls ran with it. The only reason why SPY was so strong is because of the financial sector. XLF closed above the All time high (30.33)! We need more bull volume to confirm it is a clear break or else I would still consider it a double top with 30.33 if we reject. If we consolidate pre market and bulls open with fire, that would be ideal for bulls. If we consolidate hard, expect a 4 hour high low to form because retesting the All time high of 30.46.
AMEX:XLF
by DerekTradeEZ
Financials are firmly in charge right now!December is full of the swing as we push toward the end of 2019. For now, bulls seem to be continued, the market got hit hard in earlier this week but bounced back into the edge of their expected moves referenced from options chain. So the question at this point is neither the trade war or other economic mixed quotes nor if you should being bullish/bearish right now, it's about understanding the risk that persists on the stake as the market keeps buying it. Financials, the fundamental of all broader markets are just hanging there and driving more and more order flows into the market, and the bonds which drive the financials are heading on a slight downtrend right now. Strong stocks getting stronger for a couple of reasons. First, they rely on sector strength. Those sectors in lead with those stocks making new highs usually give us a sense of market participation, which is preparing us the opportunities to buy. On Thursday session, among those money center bank stocks, 14 out of 24 post gains according to Finviz stocks screen tools. So I picked JPM for the pitch which just broke out of a rising trend line, the bull trades with few gaps up in the most recent trading session demonstrated some bull flags and that seems an opportunity to buy for now. But keep in mind, on the other aspects, financials along with the SPY are a little bit shy of their All-Time highs which means they are also in a danger zone. Since the three major indexes are on the lower edge of their expected move, if there is a trip to go a further down then they will go down widly. So traders must prepare for a much more substantial down that could occur when the volatility has not necessarily subsided.
NYSE:JPMLong
by Khabilan
Is there a serious turning point?S&P 500 was down 27.11 points with a 0.86% drop in yesterday's trading session. In the past few weeks SPY straightened up almost every day since the beginning of October, and during this period SPY smoothly waved inside of the expected move which indicated by options chain. However, yesterday SPY edged downside of this range and people started questioning if it was a turning point for the market. So today, I am going to detail some things that you may need to be aware of if the market actually is going down seriously. As we start to look at the SPY, yesterday's session caught some sell-side activities, but it's was not took place in SPY first, it's started with the QQQ and then affected on various parts of the broader market. Yet, some capitals are still finding its best rotation in the products like MO. For further details, what you really need to consider is the financials, and XLF was down 0.63% yesterday. Why should detail XLF? Because XLF as the market's fundamentals, that led the market to the rally in the past two months with an 11.13% gain while SPY had up 7.31%, on a YTD basis, it has increased roughly 25%. So if you want to see a major sell-off activity to take place in the market that has to be led by the financials, currently it just remained solid in the market place. With some sell-side activity still on holds, what do traders do, they simply just flip over to the bond markets. Since we are seeing that TLT is still in the downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, XLF would not necessarily lead the market to the downside. People always mention about the technology, but for now you should forget about the tech sector, the tech sector may be could step into some sell-side activities but it ain't gonna get things done. If the market is going to get hammered it has to be done by financials. Besides if you try to take look at BAC, BAC is still up in the last trading session. With the big bets detected from yesterday's options chain, BAC got over 1 million valued long calls scheduled in December which also could signal people seems to be quite bullish on these banks for moving forward.
AMEX:XLF
by Khabilan