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XLF

Complex Inverse Head & Shoulders on the XLF. Could rally higher.The XLF is currently forming what appears to be a complex inverse head and shoulders pattern. As it sits right now, price is holding between the 50 and 200 day moving averages (50 day acting as support, 200 day acting as resistance) and we could be setting up for a golden cross (50 MA crossing the 200 MA) into an eventual retest of the neckline of this complex inverse head and shoulders pattern which is around $27.10. The neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern can be drawn a few ways. I have the neckline around $27.10, but I can see arguments for $27.50. Regardless, I either want to see a break-out above the neckline with volume, or a break-out into a retest of the neckline as new support before consolidating and eventually moving higher. Moving average guide (All daily for this post): 50 day moving average in Green. 100 day moving average in Yellow. 200 day moving average in Red. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
AMEX:XLFLong
by Deftsuo
Goldman Sachs Earnings Pop? Hey guys, quick disclaimer; I am a novice technician but I'm here to learn! I'm playing some $210 call options for Goldman Sachs earnings. Goldman to me, has more upside potential in the financials vs. JPM or BAC. And with the onslaught of IPOs it should be a forgone conclusion their revenue/earnings should be boosted in that environment. The SPY appears to want to make another attempt at all time highs so I've shifted my view to GS for a catchup trade with GS. Feel free to give me your thoughts on the trade or the chart analysis. Thanks! -R
NYSE:GSLong
by StockPickingEnthusiast
This is nuts XLF Fed is wrong, and the markets know itSo, if you look at XLF, Never fully recover since the financial crisis, so the big jump in Yields, since 2017 trump presidence is back where all rally started, the weird thing is that correlation bewteen yields, and bank stocks was right in dicember and these 5 month rally, in anticipation of earning is not price in, earning cuts, honestly did you know that banks, make less money when yields are below 3%, so the last year speculators, told that 10 yield could be 4.5% in what universe thats is going to happen? people dont see it yet,im scare how reckless banks and fund managers has been in the last 5 months all because of china trade deal like, tax cut 2018, always a reason to keep these bubble higher than ever, these distorsions of reality is what make vix explotions, is like there is not risk at all, these time are full controversial because there has been low volume, if these low volume extend, we could have liquidity problems, i honestly dont know if we are near or close to a recession, but in fact is when the fed tell that we have a recession is already too late, Germany near recession, japan, near recession, the bigger risk that all world market is that there is a deflation risk, because of these stupid monetary policys, is like a cocaine that markets coudnt live without, i dont Know when markets are going to pull the trigger but im not long term these market at all, in fact that all these gains of 2019 are superficial and artificial, all manipulation the same manipulators are back in, shorting the vix, until the whole thing implode, if you are a long term investor, look at perspective where you are now, where you want to be meanwhile, i will be ready to short the hell of these bubble. Becareful traders. GL
AMEX:XLFShort
by Kanon8260
XLF, Financials Signal a Trouble AheadXLF is an ETF that tracks the financial sector - one of the largest sectors in S&P. The chart reflects a strong rejection from a major HVN (high value node) as well as the level where the downside conviction had started back in December 2018. The price has closed right at the edge of the large value area. Usually, a bounce is expected. If the level gets accepted the price will start climbing up back to the top of the box otherwise we may see filling the gap and retest of the next box down below. 2 Major sectors Financial and Technology keep the S&P at higher prices, one of them has started to show its weakness. If the Technology starts to follow we will see a significant weakness of the index.
AMEX:XLF
by SviCapital
The #Fed Is Saying the Cycle Is DoneToday's FOMC minutes, and subsequent conference, was enlightening. The Fed has signalled that there will be no additional hikes in 2019, which the market had already priced in. Additionally, the Fed's quantitative tightening ( balance sheet reduction) will be tapered and expected to end by the end of September. The bid-to-risk was short lived as the SPY and DIA closed negative, and QQQ was well of session highs. There was a frantic bid to treasuries, which The Macro Strategist have been advocating for months. Cyclicals have lagged the 2019 rally, and they received no solace from Powell & Co. The problem with the Fed's complete withdrawal from monetary tightening comes at a time when, much like ECB's Draghi, was forced to admit the best of growth and inflation are beyond us. Financials were slammed post-FOMC, and they will test minor-rally support of $25.86. The near-term TACVOL range sits 26.99/25.88 while the intermediate range 28.19/23.07 which would target to the downside. Notice, XLF is tracking the eurodollar 2019 lower ready to price a lax Fed.
AMEX:XLF
by TheMacroStrategist
Gold vs BanksThis chart shows the ratio of XAUUSD vs BKX bank index Gold is typically considered a secure investment in times of economic uncertainty The KBW Bank Index (ticker BKX) tracks the stocks of 24 major banking companies since the early 90s. This index serves as a benchmark of the banking sector. During the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–08 questions regarding bank solvency, declines in credit availability and damaged investor confidence had an impact on global stock markets. Gold surged in price relative to the bank index. Another surge in this ratio can be seen during the 2011 Credit Crisis, Standard & Poor's downgraded America's credit rating from AAA to AA+ on 6 August 2011 for the first time. Fears of contagion of the European sovereign debt crisis also increased at this time. Since 2013 the narrative has been rather consistent confidence in the banks. Gold has lost strength while real yields on Treasuries have risen. During the earnings recession of 2015-2016 fear returned of economic slowdown and rising defaults in junk credit. Recently with the flattening yield curve fears of slowing economic activity took over markets towards the end of 2018. Projections of another recession are expected for the years ahead possibly by 2020.
FX:XAUUSD
by dime
Financials (XLF) Bullish Wedge or forming Head of H&SFinancials have sputtered as of late, and this can be interpreted in two ways: Scenario 1: This is a bullish wedge and because of expected future interest rate hikes financials will break out and create new highs in the $32 -$35 range for the AMEX:XLF . Supporting this is the RSI hit lows previously seen on 3/22 and all the way back to the beginning of 2016. Stoch has also recently hit a low and moving upward. Further, the selling pressure has been strong but the stock has remained in the bullish wedge pattern. Scenario 2: Selling pressure will break through the wedge formation and the stock will retrace to the ~$23 level. XLF has declined following almost every recent interest rate hike. Stock will retrace to $23 then bounce off support and subsequently fall after hitting resistance (previous support line for wedge). In the market we are in, I would error on the side of the trend (bullish). However, based on the way financials have behaved as of late, I would not be surprised if scenario 2 would occur. Either way, breakouts either way could be quite profitable if the proper stops are put in place.
AMEX:XLF
by myfye13