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XLF

Indecisive S&P 500The SPY (SPX) is giving some mixed messages from various indicators. While the general feel seems to be a grind higher, it's important to note that we have stayed under the 61.8% retracement of the correction even after several attempts to push thru. Also, not depicted on this chart, but we failed to maintain the 100 day s.m.a. (I'll try to add that chart in the comment section.) We also formed an inside bar on the daily, so tomorrow's action should give insight for next week's trading. Of course, none of this is relevant if headlines or tweets of significance happen over the weekend. I'm playing towards the long side, but hedged with calls in UVXY, and I did that mainly because VIX maintained and closed above 15, and short-term signals suggested we may see volatility surge even more. Also, the Russell 2000 (RUT) is still strong, but it appears to be showing signs of exhaustion. Ditto the NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) and NASDAQ 100 (NDX). I really want to short this market, but I'm not fighting the tape. When it says its time, then it'll be time. :)
AMEX:SPYLong
by EchoAlphaBravo
OPENING: XLF June/Sept 24/27/28/31 Double Net Credit Diagonal... for a .58/contract credit. Basically, this is a calendarized iron condor or iron fly, where you roll just the short strangle/short straddle body of the setup for cost basis reduction, while keeping the long strangle aspect in place for purposes of defining the risk ... . Take profit is somewhat subjective, but I start to look to bail on the trade at >20% of the width of the wings. With short straddle "bodies," I tend to roll when the short straddle body has reached 25% max; with short strangle bodies, 50%. This is a fairly tight short strangle, so will treat it as a short straddle for purposes of rolling.
AMEX:XLF
by NaughtyPines
Double Top Forming on XLF / FinancialsXLF is approaching massive resistance at $30, the peak prior to the Great Recession. It appears to be forming a double top, which if cleared will open the door for a huge rally. Conversely, a failure would open the door to a large correction. Very short term (next week or so), I think we see buyers lift prices (I'm long 3/29 $29's), but I believe we ultimately fail at $30, a level I'll short against. Given broader weakness, European banking issues (DB is crashing), overly bullish sentiment, and the aforementioned technical picture, it seems to be a good setup.
AMEX:XLFShort
by EchoAlphaBravo
XLF - a good barometer for banking stocks to buy/sellLook at XLF and GS, don't you think that they mirror each other in its chart pattern? I have find using XLF a good barometer to buy or sell banking stocks like Citigroup, JPM and GS. Again, XLF has shown temporary weakness with price action closing below 21EMA and a gap between 25.51 and 25.61 awaiting to be filled. 25.51 is slightly above the 50% FIB level which could potentially retrace and continue its bullish move. See my next chart for further explanation.
AMEX:XLFShort
by dchua1969
$XLF Is the Financial Pullback Something More? (includes video)U.S. financial stocks have been in pullback mode this week despite the SPX moving higher. Considering that financial stocks had been a big boost to market gains over the last several months, this could be concerning. The XLF is down about 3% - and regional banks KRE down 6% - since the recent top. Let's put this move into context, shall we? As MacroView as posted before, financial stocks really began to rally in early Sept just as the 10s/fed funds curve bottoms around 90 basis points. The correlation has been rather strong between .65 to .93. In our view, the curve and financials rallied on two things: markets were trying to price higher inflation (we saw this as the long-end steepened) vis-a-vie higher commodity prices. Then, markets were anticipating Pres. Trump nominating John Taylor as the next fed chair, who would be uber hawkish. We were happy to take the other side of that bet. Powell is dovish. In turn, we saw yields and copper, particularly, head lower. The 10s/fed funds rate topped out at 131 basis points and began to trade lower on the above events. Price action in XLF and KRE weakened and the pullback ensued. Click the here to listen to where support may be found and whether or not financials and the curve will rebound. Check us out on twitter @macro_view
AMEX:XLF
by MacroView_TrendFlex