$GS Trade Idea - Bank Stress Test With the Bank Stress Test showing positive results, here's a possible trade gameplan for GS into qEnd provided conditions are met and we have a bullish reaction to GDP + Unemployment numbers in pre-market tomorrow.
The path on the 15 min chart looks messy since that's the lowest resolution I can publish, so I've included a 5 min version in the screenshot below.
Ideal Gameplan:
1. Price opens above risky area shown on chart and holds above the orange rectangle on the pullback
2. Long 6/30 $325C or $327.5C
3. Can cut some at 10 am if you wish, or hold for the push into 11:30
4. On the first decent pullback after 10 am, grab some $330C "lottos" if you've scaled out Cost Basis from the initial call position
5. By 11:30, price should've made an HH that will only be exceeded near the EOD or on Friday morning (can trim most/all of $330C here if you want)
6. If above conditions are met and price continues to base above $327.50-328 during the afternoon session, can look to re-enter $330C for the late-day push, holding final runners for Friday, but keep in mind there will be theta burn overnight
Note:
If price opens in the orange box shown, or enters orange box during the initial pullback after open, it's best to wait until the orange box is safely cleared, as there is a chance we backtest the afterhours PA under $320
XLF
MCK DAILY - Breakout on EarningsToday a gap up on positive earnings and revenue, Today an ascending triple top breakout on the point & figure.
This is a health care stock (timely sector) with superb financials.
This is not financial advice, but if I were to load into this stock, I would:
a) look for a pullback to 381.43 (potential VPOC support) for potential entry
b) Look for a further pullback to 376.19 (Gap fill) for potential entry
c) In the event this is a runaway gap, I would look for a breakout above 401.78 (52 week high), where there should be free sailing ahead.
d) Point & figure target is currently 459 (long position only).
AAPL Earnings Beat $170 Key Level | Bank Fears | QQQ Analysis- AAPL short under 170 long over 170
- Regular trading hour for AAPL will be key to the direction, lots of calls bought for 170
- SPY double bottom today key level of support
- QQQ bounced off key support at 315
- AMEX:KRE made new lows XLF still weak
FOMC Summary | QQQ & SPY Analysis | KRE & PACW Bust | QCOM ER- FOMC Summary: 0.25bps hike today, Powell saying no cuts this year may made the market a bit red but he said that last time too. I personally think it was because market participants this time wanting to hear a pause due to it being so price in but he didnt say any of that so market went down.
- QQQ bounce off of Key support yesterday but broke below today
- NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY both below 12 EMA
- NASDAQ:PACW NEWS wanting to sell its entire bank AH, causing market to drop
- NASDAQ:QCOM ER saying lower demand on phones made NASDAQ:AAPL drop
Strong Banks / Point of inflection for the Markets Bank Earnings have been great!
Though, The market wasn’t overly thrilled about it.
We believe this is due in part to the uncertainty it caused regarding the fed rate path.
The bank failure(s) that occurred, and fear of continued failures, cast doubt on the feds ability to continue to raise rates. This elevated markets, in our opinion, in conjunction with favorable inflation and NFP reports showing a cooling economy.… then the bank earnings arrived snd acted as a headwind to the indexes.
What we think is important to watch for:
1) ES1! 4200
This region has been a repeated battleground for
Price action. and a close above it .. or failure at it, would be a good indicator for midterm direction.
2) FED comments on the banks earnings
Overall bullish on the market- but I do think we may range for a bit longer.
3) XLF may yield sustained alpha
$AAPL $XLF, $QQQ future Outlook Super Tight Range about to Break- NASDAQ:AAPL trading right under resistance, about to break out of the tightening range
- AAPL earnings date May 4th
- NASDAQ:QQQ super tight tons of inside bar, big tech earnings next week, NASDAQ:TSLA this Wednesday and NASDAQ:NFLX tomorrow
- Money rotating around the market, when QQQ consolidates money flowing into AMEX:SPY like sectors in AMEX:XLF vice versa.
XLF is sick (weekly)The recent selling volume of XLF is surpassed only by the COVID lows of 3/20 (purple circles). XLF currently is showing a little flag at a Gann confluence point (right yellow circle) and at a pivot point from pre-COVID (left yellow circle). RSI trend is negative, although it has retraced off an RSI(12) oversold level. If XLF falls from here, it will have formed a bull trap off the current flag. XLF needs some help to recover from here.
$QQQ BULLS Continue but at KEY Resistance, PCE Data tomorrow- SPY QQQ gapped up again but ended up closing within todays trading range, unlike yesterday bulls have a strong follow through after open.
- PCE Data tomorrow morning 5:30am PST
- QQQ closed around key daily resistance.
- End of the quarter and month rebalancing tomorrow will bring lots of volatility
- Will XLF / KRE join team bull or QQQ / SMH join team Bear?
- i am slightly more bearish at this level but so far theres no red flags for the bulls at all for QQQ SMH SOXX
Daily $QQQ Market Breakdown, Potential Bull flags in Tech Sector- SPY and QQQ have been very choppy due to sectors rotating around may potentially continue unless we start seeing XLF forming daily uptrends and joining team bull.
- Or we see XLF / KRE go sideways and QQQ and SOXX/ SMH join team Bear.
As of now there are zero red flags for QQQ and SMH daily time frame so i am slightly more bullish in my intra-day scalp trades. Wont be holding anything overnight until we get a clear direction in the market i am open to both bearish or bullish trades just want a clear direction.
$QQQ $SPY BEAR LACK Follow Through, Key Levels to Watch- $SPY $QQQ bear had all its chances to bring QQQ down after a bear break this morning out of the tightening range we had in the last 4 days but bears couldn't follow through.
- Want to see QQQ Bulls gain back its hourly uptrend and break above 308 area of resistance.
- want to see XLF / KRE bounce for SPY & SPX to break out of its equilibrium bull. of course vice versa for the bears.
- zero red flags on the daily time frame for SOXX / SMH / QQQ
$TSLA Price Action Breakdown, $QQQ Future Price Outlook- $QQQ about to break its tightening range, this will be very important for TSLA,
- currently TSLA does not have enough relative strength to hold up if QQQ breaks bear. so it will likely break bear with it.
- Bullish pattern: Daily Inverse H&S Weekly Cup & Handle
- XLF / KRE gapped up nicely but bear took over after cash open.
$QQQ Equilibrium In Play till Monday. $SPY need 1h trend change- QQQ Equailibirum key break will be Monday which will determine which way SPY is going to move.
- SOXX / SMH turning from lead bull into lead bear today, weakest sector since Dec 2022. May drag down QQQ if it continues. Will short this sector if it continues on SOXS.
- SPY bulls want to see a hourly uptrend form, Bears want to see QQQ bear break Equilibrium and drag SPY down.
- XLF / KRE gapped down and bounced all day, big enough bounce now for bulls to try to form an hourly uptrend, but before that bulls has changed nothing on the daily timeframe.
KEY TOP WATCH $QQQ Equilibrium Pattern Tomorrow - QQQ equilibrium pattern is going to be key break for which direction market is going the next couple days,
- XLF KRE bear break to new lows will break QQQ equilibrium bear and then drag SPY down even more.
- Yellen flip flop - no deposit guarantee yesterday to today it will be. (the more they flip flop back and forth the more we see them as less confident)
- SOXX / SMH semi sector also helping QQQ with such a strong move up, QQQ bear break will likely mark a temporary top on this sector. need to see NVDA drop too.
FOMC Price Reaction Analysis, Support & Resistance, $SPY/$QQQ- Looking for a hourly Bear flag on SPY and QQQ after this huge move down.
- XLF and KRE top watch to see if we break fear lows/52 week low. Fear would likely come back in if we do break the lows
- looking for SOXX/SMH to go from lead bull turning into lead bear
- Rate hikes is a head wind more for QQQ then SPY, so after Powell saying no rate cuts this year, we would likely see QQQ lead to the down side as well just like it lead to the upside.
- FOMC reaction day after is always the real move, so tomorrow we need to see if bears can follow through or todays just a small reaction move.
Capital One....technical Breakdown loomingWith major weakness in the banking sector we are still seeing the contagion play out. Some banks are more at risk than others.
Based off of a blow out in Credit Default Swaps. The bond market is showing there is tremendous risk in this bank.
Just like Credit Suisse CD's blew out befroe the collapse, we are watching COF credit defaults blowout.