XLF
US Financials Sector Under PressureWe have updated our monthly publication - US Sectors Relative to S&P500.
It is an overview of the major US sectors, and covers, amongst others, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Healthcare, Technology and Financials.
Within several ratings changes, we have Downgraded Financials to Underweight.
On an absolute basis, the US Financials ETF XLF is showing signs of exhaustion. Prices are correcting back from the March highs at 25.30, with focus now on the 22.55/57 break level from November/December. Falling momentum studies suggest risk of a break beneath here, with subsequent focus then turning to the 20.00 break level.
Relative to the US S&P500 Index, price action is also looking vulnerable.
In the coming months, we see further Underperformance as institutional investors reduce exposure.
Individual names which are currently under pressure include Bank of America Corp (BAC), Citigroup Inc (C), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), JP Morgan & Chase Co (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wells Fargo (WFC).
However, several names are managing to hold on to their relative strength. Investors who are maintaining a Financials portfolio are currently seeing safety in for example, American Express Co (AXP), BlackRock (BLK), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), Moody's Corp (MCO) and Prudential Financial (PRU).
Potential Sell Zone towards FOMC24-25$ is a potential Sell Zone that includes:
1) Weekly Structure
2) Bearish Crab
3) The 78.6 Fib level (reversal level)
A close below 23$ can provide the confirmation signal - In such case, XLF target will be 21$
XLF to go for $26 areaEven though it has almost touched the top line but at the daily level, 5 wave is not done yet.
XLF. Welcome to hell!I will try to call a multi-year top on the XLF fund. Will short from 25, targeting... Probably, 12.
But my main question is: was the whole movement from 2009 to now a wave 1 or it was a B and we still wil see a Wave C? If that was a B, then we can probably say: welcome to hell, banks! Hope you enjoy your stay here
JPM continues to see strengthWith the enactment of deregulation on Dodd-Frank, large banks are gapping up to a higher level. Since Trump's election, JPM has jumped almost 30% and it's gonna retest 88 so as to open the new territory.
XLF gonna hit new high XLF sees strong momentum on Tuesday trading and there's support @22.85. Trump's policy will benefit the financial sector anyway and we are expecting to see a pullback+bounce back to previous highest level and break through into a new territory!! Wait for the pullback to build the portfolio.
More upside potential towards earnings...butBAC monthly chart analysis shows two things:
1) The post elections rally drove Bank of America above a major weekly structure zone (18$) that now should act as support (green box)
2) Next major structure zone is way up near 25$. Also where the price will meet the 200 months MA line and complete a bearish AB=CD pattern.
We are talking about a 10% additional rally in a stock that already doubled itself since 2015.
Will we see another push higher without any pullback?
Earnings are scheduled this week. The bearish scenario (short term pullback) involves a weekly Pinbar pattern. The bulls can either wait for the pullback to create better opportunities or bet blindly on the bullish sentiment that continues to dominate the market.
RSI and Stochastic are overbought but no Sell Signal provided yet..
Read more about BAC, JPM, XLF and DXY in this week's newsletter
Long Term Sector RotationSPX vs Major Sectors. I added IBB to cover Biotech.
Please comment. My understanding at this point is to stay in sectors which have good fundamentals and have been relative laggards. The 3 bottom ones at this point seem to be Financials, Technology and XLU / XLP.
Since utilities is a risk-averse sector, so in a pro-growth environment I may want to go with the other 3. XLB is like the coyote / fox from Mickey mouse that runs a few meters off the cliff thinking its still running on solid ground before realizing that there's nothing below it and then falls like a rock. Great if you can time it right.
RBS potential to reach 99$ price areaFor your long swing account. You will have many opportunities to add more to the trade so still once reaching 1:1-or-more ratio remember to consider taking profits to remove your risk.
short XLF @ 15 min @ trading capability for this 52nd week `16This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Next wkk i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :)
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron
Can it be anymore clearer than this?Clear wave pattern seen in the XLF -0.25% ETF .
I'm expecting one final push up from 23.54 right now in the next few weeks with a target of 24.76 (76.4% retracement of 2008 highs).
It would have been pretty good level to accumulate some long term puts up to a year.
The anti-bank sentiment is far from over, and almost certainly not right now. Trump rally at least in the short term is not going to unwind the fact that we're in a deflationary cycle and it will only get worst.
Banks making good money.Pretty much following GS' lead and the current presidential hype train. This one is no different.
Bearish US Financials $XLF $KREYield curve is flattening with each rate hike as the short term floor is hiked higher. Not a stable environment for better loan growth. These are the leaders, do people really expect a hand off back to FANG?
New Area for XLF @ > 25 USD at least (historical context)What a rollercoaster the financilas got - no doubt :)
How ever, based on some strategic facts (point of views) i realized that the financial sector still got time and room to prices above 25 at least. Why ??? The Sentiment changed !!! And not only this - of course politics in the US too. And this is probably the most inflous - the most bullish factor !? CNBC Joe (Squaqck Box) said an interesting set which not tasted good at first, but as longer i am thinking about it, it`s sounding plausible: "Maybe we don`t see a Trump Rally !? Maybe it`s an Obama recreation" (he said this set not word by word - in context of course - don`t nail me for this quote). And thats what i am also starting to believe. It`s much more an recovery of the last 8 years - even under Obama (and his policy in context to the financial markets) - even in relations to the US Equities (Financials & Energy Sector).
I am not an political analysis or even political expert,
but this hypothesis makes sense in historical context of the chart!
And that`s the reason why i am so pretty optimistic - kosher confident (self-disciplined) not euphoric bullish. `Cause i can`t feel maniac future optimism around me - not here in chats, not on other intenet sites, not on CNBC or BloombergTv and by no one of my trading buddies.
2400 at least for the SPX are in (over Christmas into Trumpe Presidency start)
25 at least for the XLF are in (over Christmas into Trumpe Presidency start)
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
KRE, Banking Momentum Diverges From "reality" Slowly scaling into financials. I admit I may be booking myself into the spa for a "face-lift" but the risk reward seems skewed in my favor to take a stab here.
Bearish XLFI may regret this, but damn does this look pig look ugly. There's a lot of Trump brand lipstick on it don't get me wrong, but this rally is just too far for me not to take a stab.
S&P 500 Index @ 1h Chart @ incl. XLF & XLE since Trump ElectionPerformance of the SPX, XLF & XLE - end of last month (November`16)
closed by 2034.5 SPX (round about +8,08% this Year & -1,505% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
closed by 18.95 XLF (round about +18,79% this Year & 13,63% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
closed by 60.16 XLE (round about +23,72% this Year & -6,752% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
Both sectors had the worst performance the last years, while Obamas presidents time.
Aftermath is all clear, i also didn`t except an outbreak like this. But since this month - i am prefering to see the lows in some shares (even of both sectors) as an buying oppurtunity. Why ??? Let it me so explain ... Under president Trump i can`t imagine that our new president will make policy against both sectors - even forcing laws to shoot their expansion ambitions down. "The Occupy WallStreet Movement was aftermath the all-time high of all anti WallStreet Americans - in the review even maybe the bing gang of make american great again - from the top to the button ... even from wallstreet to every american consumer and tax payer"
How ever,
i am not an political analysis or even expert - but the chart is speaking fo itself.
From this point of views i am prefering the US Yields (Gold as hedge is useless), US Equities & even some sectors (even like Energy & Financials).
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
