Bat Still Valid - Can it hold? Despite Yesterday's rally in the stock markets, $BAC's Bat pattern wasn't violated as the price remained inside the PRZ,
The fact that the price climbed above the Fast SMA line and created a minor uptrend line is a bullish signal but as long as the price remains below the broken major trend line and below X (18.5$) the bearish scenario is still valid.
Assuming that we will see $BAC testing 18$ again, the R/R for the bearish setup is about 2.
More conservative traders should probably wait for the price to close below the Fast SMA line.. at least.
Tomer, The MarketZone
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XLF
BAC looks bullish & could b/o of recent consolidation to 20 lvl.Looks bullish here as it has been in a consolidation range ever since 1/14' and has for the most part been btw 15-18 zone. Financials have come back stronger this year and with interest rates set to be raised soon which could lead to better earnings from banks......financials are set to continue to be strong. For BAC.....it has been stuck below 18 lvls. ever since 09' bottom lows & 18 is a major resistence lvl. for it to close above and hold for a few weeks.......if it breaks 18 w/ volume & holds above it then it will have b/o to the upside of the consolidation range & continue the bullish trend w/ tgt.#1=21.50 & tgt.#2=24......as always watch volume for confirmation.
XLF - Squeeze release soonWith a massive squeeze on 4 timeframes (4hr/6hr/1D and 1W), XLF is poised to make a big move (In the chart, blue candles are all TF squeeze candles).
Squeeze release is usually accompanied by a fakeout, so need to be careful there, but based on other momentum indications, good chance of this breaking up. Breaking up that RSI resistance will be a good confirmation.
First target is 25.8 level.
XLF Financial Sector: Weekly linear: XLF Topping Soon??Although the DJIA and the SPY keep making new highs, the XLF hasn't quite made a .618 correction. This in itself would indicate some weakness and indicate that when or if a major bear market develops it may be a big loser. The way I see the price action from the 2009 low to now is a A-B-C correction with the B wave the form of an expanding triangle. Using this concept it forms a good looking (to me) channel. One fairly common relationship is for the C wave to be a fib relationship to A. Commonly C=A, or C=.618x A, or C=1.618x A. Another somewhat common occurrence is for a correction to be a .618 retracement. Both of these may occur soon at the rectangle labeled C? I will be watching this action the next few weeks for signs of a reversal then go short. Hope this is helpful. Have a great upcoming week.
QQQ $108.22: Approaches 7-week triangle resistance QQQ rebounded off 105.55 (April 17, 2015 low) to test the 108.38 range high (April 13, 2015) just beneath 7-week triangle resistance (March 2, 2015 high and March 26, 2015 low). The daily MACD remains bullish, suggesting scope for further upside. If bulls manage to overcome 108.38/108.41 (April 21, 2015 high) and the triangle upper bounds, that would signal a triangle breakout and trigger further gains towards 109.07 (March 20, 2015 high) and then 109.41 (March 2, 2015 record high). However, if the 108.38/108.41 resistance zone caps the rally, a downside reversal below 105.55 would prolong the consolidation and expose the 104.24/104.34 key support area (March 26/April 6, 2015 lows) which may hold dips again.
Outlook:
Short term: bullish
Long term: bullish
XLF $24.17: Forms a 6-month symmetrical triangle patternXLF has been consolidating within a 6-month symmetrical triangle pattern (from October
15, 2014 low and December 29, 2014 high). The key support lies at 23.78 (March 26, 2015 low), near the triangle lower bounds and the 200 day moving average currently at 23.64. While the 23.78/23.64 support area holds dips, if bulls manage to reclaim 24.54 decisively (April 16, 2015 high near the triangle upper bounds), that would suggest a triangle breakout and trigger further gains towards 24.78 (March 23, 2015 high) then 25.14 (December 29, 2014 record peak). However, a breakdown below the 23.64 support area would signal topping and weaken towards 22.89 (February 2, 2015 low).
Outlook:
Short term: neutral
Long term: bullish while above the 200 day moving average
OCN Ocwen still holding$OCN will not proceed higher until the "#1 Supply" signal from 2014.02.19 flips to "#1 Demand". Even though a longer term #4 Demand signal calculated yesterday, alignment is needed first. I am still holding. I will loosen up my stops. Outside chance of a test down. A "D" distribution signal will let me know if there is a test down coming. These scripts are still being tested. See clearer chart below without extraneous information.
S&P Sector Review - A Look at Relative PerformanceThe charts above show the performance of each sector relative to all nine sectors combined. XLK tech couldn't be included due to having only 8 panes but it was included in determining the sector ratios. Important to keep in mind that these are ratios, all prices could go lower or higher together but what I'm interested in here is purely the relative performance. Also, in order for one to outperform is ensuring that another sector somewhere is underperforming.
Top Row:
XLU Utilities, XLP Consumer staples, XLF financials and XLV Health are all breaking out on a relative basis. 3 of 4 can be considered defensive sectors. Financials are interesting in that the sector was completely demolished after the 2008 recession and appear to be breaking out of a 5 yr wedge.
Bottom Row:
XLE Energy issues are widely known. Not much to say other then its possible that they go lower longer term and return to previous levels (.10-.12 of the total). The "energy commodities are an asset class" theme may finally be unwound and if so XLE could suffer from underperformance for some time (oversold bounces excluded). XLB materials have not broken down yet but look quite vulnerable. XLY Consumer discretionary did break down and may have recently been saved by the plunge in oil. Any economic weakness and i suspect this will quickly revert and this sector could significantly underperform. XLI Industrials looks like it could break out but has not yet. The transportation portion of this sector has significantly helped this sector.
Summary:
XLU - breaking out upwards, 6 yr wedge
XLP - breaking out upwards, 6 yr wedge
XLF - breaking out upwards, 5 yr wedge
XLV - breaking upper trend line important since 2011
XLE - broke out down, 6 yr wedge, approaching possible long term support
XLB - approaching bottom trend line important since 2002
XLY - broke ascending wedge lower, recently bounced back towards 2013 highs
XLI - sitting at upper trend line that has been important since 2000
XLK - Not shown
Trading The Fattest Cat On The Street, Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFThe fattest cat on Wall St. seems to be flying a bit under the radar these days. Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) has been quietly rising to become the biggest banks in the world by market cap during 2014. Surprised? Well check out these stats...
Considered one of the most conservative banks in the United States, Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) has moved up from fourth in the rankings of world's largest banks by market cap in April of 2013, to number one during 2014. The market cap of Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) is now almost three and a half times the market cap value of the all mighty, Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS).
Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) has had an amazing come back from the Financial Crisis of 2007; it is now number one, with more than fifty billion separating it from the number two, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM).
Recently, the media has started to pick up on this and the hype surrounding the name increases by the day. However, as traders all we are concerned with is should we be buying or selling the equity now. More importantly, where will Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) be trading a few months or even a year from now.
Perhaps you missed the move WFC has had, now you are considering buying it. Well, lets look to the chart to tell us where the best place to enter this trade would be...
By doing some simple trend line analysis, we can see that Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) has come into some major historical resistance as noted in the monthly chart above. Pretty much anyone looking at this chart would agree that this equity is extremely extended and should not be bought at current prices. In fact if Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) closes at or below $51.00 by the end of June, it could be considered as a potential short candidate depending on other technical factors in consideration at that time.
The price level for those interested in buying and holding Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) for a longer term move will be $41.18. If the stock should fall into this level without any consolidation above, it will represent a natural correction level, and buying opportunity. Remember that only a few years ago this equity traded as low as $7.80, you do not want to be the one holding the bag as institutions slowly begin to take their profits.