9/18/22 GSGoldman Sachs Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GS )
Sector: Finance (Investment Banks/Brokers)
Market Capitalization: $112.036B
Current Price: $326.21
Breakout Price: $335.15
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $325.35-$306.65
Price Target: $361.40-$363.50
Estimated Duration to Target: 60-63d
Contract of Interest: $GS 11/18/22 330c
Trade price as of publish date: $15.45/contract
XLF
XLF $XLF Initial LongXLF $XLF Initial Long. This is a pure momentum signal just as are every other signal I post. ZERO other factors are considered in producing this signal.
Entry reasons: XLF is showing momentum and confluence of mean reversion crossing up the 70 day price mean.
Exits and SL: TP and SL on chart. Move SL on TP. After TP2, trail with 0.5xATR step and 1.5xATR offset.
Run Play Choices are Zone, Gap or MAN!XLF bounced in a big way in Wednesday Trading stopping a multi-week selloff.
On the 4HR I see a Head and Shoulder with a profit target up to 2021 highs.
On the 30 minute I see a double bottom form.
Which leads to a Cup and Handle
Put them all together and you have a solid trading plan to ride XLF up to top of channel.
As these patterns validate or not, I will update the idea with some options ideas for entries and exits along each step.
Follow if you would like to receive updates.
My bias right now is bearish which conflicts with this idea playing out.
Do not let your bias miss a secular trend.
8/31/22 XLFSPDR Select Sector Fund - Financial ( AMEX:XLF )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $33.05
Breakout price: $33.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $32.85-$30.65
Price Target: $38.00-$38.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 132-137d
Contract of Interest: $XLF 1/20/23 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.23/contract
SPY Weekly review and forecast: August 22, 2022Last week brought the first sell side activity the markets have seen in nearly 6 weeks. The market digested comments within the FED minutes as being dovish, and was on track to extend the rally through most of the week. The tone changed on Thursday and Friday and the market was unable to hold the 4300 level. Most of the selling was precipitated by technology and the financials, while energy finished positive on the week. Volatility has also begun to expand as the VIX finished positive on the week. The weekly expected move in the SPY is also greater than last week's by almost a full point. SKEW closed flat-to-down week over week, but is still in an uptrend.
SPY -1.16% (+/- 8.3)
QQQ -2.28% (+/- 8.89)
IWM -2.85 (+/- 4.97)
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Technology -2.5% (+/- 4.09)
Energy +1.26 (+/- 1.26)
Financials -1.69% (+/- 0.83)
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VIX: +12.19% (23.07; ~50% IV Percentile)
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The rally we've seen since June has been impressive, so a pull back was going to come eventually. Its important to zoom out and look at the big picture perspective. The market may have re-entered the sideways channel I outlined at the beginning of the month. I'm looking for this week to have a mildly bearish bias, but most probably staying within the expected move in advance of the FED's Jackson Hole meeting (so think between 4150 - 4300 in SPX). I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the Bonds as well as Energy. If the Bonds continue to fall, it will be more fuel on the inflation fire. With regards to energy, stocks like XOM are at key inflection points on their Volume Profiles; selling in energy now would weigh heavily on the indices.
Is XLF on a downtrend?I believe that XLF has potential to touch $32.34 if it breaks $34 and may even retrace back to $30.20. Have patience and wait for it to break 20dma. Huge potential for profits from puts. It may happen in next week or two. Not a financial advice and as always please do your own DD.
monitoring bullish ABCD set up retest C leg on SP500I was hoping to see 4185 retested, to retest the X leg and see if it held as support. Currently the 18 ema is crossing up through this level. So I dont believe we'll get a 4185 retest .
Disclosure: I bought puts against the bearish 3x financial etf $faz..
SPY Weekly review and Forecast: August 15th, 2022 The Summer rally continued this week on the back of strong earnings by Disney ($DIS) and the market interpreting CPI data as inflation cooling. However, I think the market internals are telling a more important story. This week, the market paced by the financials... on Thursday, the XLF tested the upper edge of its weekly expected move and ultimately broke outside of it on Friday, leading to a textbook end of week Gamma squeeze. Below is a snapshot of this past week's action (percentage gains/losses, expected moves for the upcoming week) and some ideas about what we may see in the coming week.
SPY +1.69% (+/-7.65)
QQQ +1.95% (+/- 9.33)
IWM +2.04% (+/- 5.06)
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Technology +1.99%
Energy +0.76%
Financials +1.57%
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VIX: -3.32% (19.52; ~30% IV Percentile)
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Next week has some potentially market moving events like PMI (Tuesday), and GDP (Thursday), as well as a few other data drops scattered throughout the week. The SPY closed within a point of the intermediate level of 428 I added last week. The rally has been fierce, so I have to wonder how much higher it might go before we see some kind of a pull back. Rather than try and guess what the action is going to be like, I think the XLF is holding the cards. Its at a key area on possible resistance on it's Daily Volume Profile... a meaningful break above will likely drag the rest of the market up to 440. If it rejects, it will likely lead to a pull back in the broader market. Also worth noting, SKEW continues to rise, signaling that a bout of volatility could be looming.
jpm $147.50 targetTracking the Money flow and the AD. Its showing me an $147.50 target on jpm via an ascending triangle. It previous broke out of the cup/handle pattern. Which was led by an bullish ABCD Pattern and Bull Flag. D leg should be the retrace leg, the AD could retrace back to the previous breakout handle.. Will re-evaluate at that time.
SPY Weekly review and Forecast: August 8th, 2022This week's action was largely defined by two dynamics: Employment data, and sector rotation.
After initially selling off on Friday after the Employment data drop, the market reversed course and rallied much of the day before ultimately finishing slightly down on the session. Despite trade being predominantly sideways in an 80 point range, the market extended it's rally and finished up on the week. The range was the result of the aforementioned sector rotation. Tech moved into the leadership role as Eneregy, which had been leading the rally, sold off considerably. Stuck in the middle were the financials.
Before looking ahead, here's a snapshot of last weeks numbers, and expected moves for the upcoming week:
SPY +1% (+/- 8.81)
QQQ +2.6% (+/- 9.33)
IWM +2.7% (+/- 4.96)
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Technology +2.8%
Energy -5.1%
Financials +0.8%
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VIX: -0.84% (21.14; ~25% IV Percentile)
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Heading into next week, the market is maintaining a fairly resilient - if not strong posture. There will be a smattering of earnings from small/midsized companies throughout the week, and a potential market moving event with CPI data being released on Wednseday. A natural question to ask is when volatility will find a bottom and make a return. Nevertheless, the market looks posied to finish Q3 strong. I've updated the SPY chart to include an intermediate upside target of 425, which is very much in play heading into September. There is reason to be cautious however, as SKEW is potentially throwing out warning signs as it finished the week with its highest print in nearly 3 months.
Looking ahead to next week in the S&P (July 25th, 2022)With things like housing statistics, employment data, and earnings from heavyweights such as GOOG, MSFT, and 3M, next week looks to be filled with potential market moving events. Most notably however is FED Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday afternoon. While its no secret that we're headed into a world of higher interest rates, FED speak always has a tendency to move markets one way or another - but before we look ahead, here is a quick snapshot of last weeks action:
S&P500: +2.3%
Nasdaq: +3.3%
Russell: +3.3%
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Technology (XLK): +6.5%
Energy (XLE): +4.5%
Financials (XLF): +2.3%
Heading into next week, SPY is looking at an expected move of +/- 9.8 on 24%IV ... (QQQ +/- 10.3, 32%IV; IWM +/- 5.6, 30%IV).
SPY appears to be gaining steam on the shorter time frames (4HR, etc.), and I think the sectors driving the rally have more room to run, so my primary idea is for the rally to continue over the intermediate term. There may be some turbulence along the way, so perhaps a retest of the top of the previous range around 390 before ultimately heading toward 415. However, don't ignore the bonds. They have seen a solid rally off their lows in June. If momentum can continue, bond prices could accelerate up to 149"00, which would almost certainly lead to weakness in equities.
Please note: these are not predictions - they are just my ideas about how I'm seeing the markets and are to help me formulate my own trades. If you find this helpful, please consider liking, commenting, following, boosting, baking cookies, setting me up with your single friends, blah blah blah blah...
KRE - Regional Banks NQBANK XLFOh my, death on a stick once again.
Banks are twisting in the wind.
Health?
Hell No.
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Use the Dollar Tool now.
Forget Stonks they are cooked.
Markets go nowhere without Financials.
Homies' wreckage just beginning.
Bonds are already in ruin.
Crypto, ready for the beating.
Gold, a shiny useless rock.
22% more to go... adios.
$SPX retrace back to neckline (headfake)After my last post of a bearish harami, the markets rallied to the upside, retracing back to the neckling support of the Head and Shoulders pattern formed on the SPX. While it seemed to have potential for a multiday rally, that was quickly erased by the dismal retail data on Wednesday and back to bear mode by the markets on inflation and growth concerns. For some this may have been a headfake, but i think selling in to rallies is the call of the day unless otherwise proven to have seen some sort of a bottom or a meaningful bounce.
SPX target remains at 3500 - another 10% down from this point. I don't think we'll see a bounce until this level is visited. RSI is oversold but it's got some room to go. SPX is now below the 100 week moving average as well - haven't been below this MA since March 2020. Very bearish.
SPX Runs and RestsSo i thought i'd take a look at a bit longer term monthly chart on the SPX.
As you can see here, for the past 10 years or so, after having broken above the '07 top resistence level at around 1550
SPX has had a 2-3 year stretch of three runs, followed by respite and or corrections.
And at each of these times, you can also see that the 50MA served very well as a rally support for the next "run".
Now, there's nothing that says one MUST kiss the 50MA, which would be right around a fib support of ~ 3470 or so,
but if SPX would take a negative turn down from current levels, then we may expect this level to be support once again
as it has proven to be in the past.
It may also overshoot as it did back in March of 2020, that gave everyone a scare. If that were to happen again, next support
from that level would be 3200 or so.
Keep in mind that past results do not predict future outcomes... just a consideration when looking at things long term while in
short term volatility. :)
Good luck.
Sector Rotation: An OverviewI have wanted to do an overview video of Sector Rotation for Best of Us Investors for a while. In this video I give a high level view of the theory of Sector Rotation and how it can be used to forecast the flows of money into different sectors at different times in the market. I also include my current analysis of where the next sector rotation is likely to occur.
$XLF tons of overhead supply ; will the gaps fill?Financials on full display going into earnings . Will those GAPS fill? Keep them on your radar.
#XLF #JPM #C #BAC
Interest Rates continue to rise on 30 year home mortgages and the federal interest rates consumers begin feeling the pain of being both pushed out of the market and every direction they turn.
In most cases higher interest rates help the banks and some could say, “higher rates drive up prices, which increase companies earnings and consumer price index ( CPI );” however, I think many are overlapping the current with past recessions. In most cases that may work – but this time isn’t like any time of our past. The amount of headwinds on the global fronts and out of control printing of debt holistically.
In any case, I am cautious on banks with all the segments of their lives being impacted with oil , shipping, economic contraction, rising rates, etc. not to mention rising wages being outpaced by inflation and poverty increase by x-hundreds of thousands per month.
Tons of overhead supply that could be potential opportunities for entries on rejection. WILL THE GAPS FILL?
** What happens when households cannot afford to acquire loans and it’s too late for them to refinance their homes… just food for thought.