JPM Bearish back towards 155 if Breakout FailsLooks like its back trying to challenge a break out to new highs
This all depends on rates really.
I guess the anticipation is that rates are going up eventually so banks should too? Just a guess
Banks have led recently, maybe time to cool off and drift back to support
The NFP number this morning gave a hint of how JPM will react in the future to unfavorable data
Just gonna play it bearish looking for maybe a $5 pullback or so over next week or 2
If rates start getting really frisky this trade is done
If it blows through 161.5 I'll be out, might wait for that test before entering
Some sort of diagonal put spreads not sure on specific strikes yet
XLF
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/7It was the cyclical sectors that ruled the week. Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) were the top four sectors of the week.
The cyclical sectors are benefiting from a pick-up in economic activity driving demand for products from building materials, infrastructure and the manufacturing of consumables. Supply has not been able to keep up with the increased demand, driving commodity prices higher. Timber, Copper, Aluminum are all skyrocketing. And demand for oil is increasing as transportation picks back up.
While the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) hit new all-time records, there were four sectors that lost for the week. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) fell on Monday thru Wednesday along with the Nasdaq, as investors rotated to re-opening and infrastructure stocks.
Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) were the bottom two sectors. Investors did not have interest in the defensive equity plays this week. Investors remain confident in the equities market, but are playing toward value, re-opening and infrastructure.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/30Energy (XLE) led the weekly sector list for the first time since the first week of March. The sector was helped by oil prices that rose on Tuesday and Wednesday, and positive earnings reports from Exxon Mobile and Chevron.
Financials (XLF) and Communications (XLC) stocks solidified second and third place with strong opens on Thursday. Financials was boosted by positive earnings reports from Capital One and S&P Global. Communications got a big lift from Alphabet and Facebook, as advertising revenues soar amidst consumers getting back to spending.
Despite several positive earnings reports in the sector, Technology (XLK) ended the week in last place. Investor outlook appears to be that these big tech companies will not continue the same amount of growth in the next few quarters, especially compared to the previous year's numbers.
PYPL XLF PAY PAL 8LONG)Hi,
All is in the chart
Financials
Indusrial
Energy
are the three best performing sectors for the week
to me, as well as index shows t ´ll today
i have posted various stock that i have found which could be nice since Monday to trade,
not popular ideas but their all worked pretty well. The market is what dictate the money flow. not what most love.
Just my guess, PYPL as an excellent set up for gains in short term.
This is not a profesional advice
invest at your own risk
a TradingView idea
Good Luck
Charlie
$XLF Bank's Earnings week.Looking at the near term indicators, the Stoch RSI stands out the most for me. On a daily timeframe, the daily RSI is not overbought, but the weekly timeframe shows some overbought action. My only worry this week would be if banks don't do well, which might be pretty difficult, that XLF might find itself double topping at these levels and starting a corrective wave. I'm looking at a breakout over 35.28 and holding to confirm a fifth wave above these levels. I've indentified key support and resistance levels at the pink horizontal lines pointed on the chart.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/1Communications (XLC) did not top the sector list for a single day, but it's steady gains throughout the week put it at the top of the weekly chart.
Utilities (XLU) started the week on top. Investors were nervous on Monday about the lasting impact of the Suez Canal blockage and whether a $20b fire sale of Archegos investments would grow or even expand to other firms. Utilities popped back into the story late on Wednesday when a sudden pop and sell-off in big tech occurred in the final hour.
Financials (XLF) was also impacted by the Archegos drama on Monday. By Tuesday, the damage was contained and higher treasury bond yields provided a life to the sector, making it the top performer for the day.
Technology (XLK) got a boost on Wednesday when Microsoft announced news of an augmented reality deal with the US Army. That spike sold off quickly, but the buyers came back in on Thursday, bringing the Technology sector up to second place for the week.
Energy (XLE) spent most of the week at the bottom of the list. Higher-then-expected demand for oil and gas and a generally positive outlook for economic growth brought the sector gains on Thursday that lifted it from the bottom.
Consumer Staples (XLP) ended the week as the worst performing sector. The rotation out of staples could continue as investors see consumers return to normal spending habits in a strengthening economic cycle.
XLF Top?Note the weekly volume reversal in XLF last week (see scandinavianmarkets.com to view this chart). This is interesting in light of the rotation narrative (value/growth). Previous weekly volume reversals occurred in 2001, 2007, and 2010…great time to prepare for a downturn. Also, 5 waves up from the 2009 low are visible in XLF. The channel is perfect and momentum guidelines ‘agree’ with the proposed count.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/19Inflation, yields and the fed, oh my! The sectors were all over the place this week, all driven by nervousness about an overheating economy and how the fed might react.
Monday started the week with the defensive sector Utilities (XLU) at the top.
On Tuesday, Retail sales data for February showed the economy wasn't overheating and inflation may not be on the rise. That gave investors some confidence and despite bond yields rising, interest rate sensitive sectors such as Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) rose to the top.
After the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Jerome Powell acknowledge the increased outlook on the economy for 2021, but made a firm statement that interest rates would not be raised and bond purchasing programs would continue. You can clearly see the spike in Technology and Communications again after 2:00p on Wednesday.
But then bond investors had their reaction on Thursday. As market open approached, bond investors sold heavily in the morning, sending yields on a surge again. Industrials (XLI) did well for most of the day but sold off before close. Only Financials (XLF) ended the day with a gain.
Finally on Friday, bond yields climbed but at a smaller rate with the yield curve flattening a bit. That allowed several sectors to find some upside. Communication Services ended the week at the top sector.
Energy (XLE) was the worst performing sector of the week as crude oil prices plummeted on less demand, losing over 7.5% and dragging down the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) with it.
XLF in bearish technical postureFinancial sector, XLF, has been outperforming other sectors in S&P as what seems to be a sector rotation is taking place. Money is coming out of technology to more defensive sectors recently. Nevertheless, when I look at this XLF chart, it is screamingly bearish. Bearish rising wedge with negative divergence on both PPO and RSI. It is pretty extended as well. It's right on the trend line. One big red day may just break it or a gap down on the bad news despite what happened during FOMC meeting today.
Have a good trade everyone,
T.
Elliott Wave View: XLF Pullback to Stay SupportedShort term Elliott Wave View suggests that the rally from September 2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. The 1 hour chart below shows wave (3) of this impulse ended at 35.2. Wave 4 of (3) ended at 32.16, and the rally in wave 5 of (3) unfolded as an impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 33.95, and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 32.60. The ETF resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 34.58 and wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 33.52. Final leg higher wave ((v)) of 5 ended at 35.20 which also completed wave (3) in higher degree.
Wave (4) pullback is now in progress to correct cycle from January 29 low before the rally resumes. Structure of the pullback is proposed to unfold as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave A ended at 34.25. Expect the ETF to rally in wave B then turn lower in wave C of (4). Afterwards, expect the ETF to resume higher again. As far as pivot at 32.16 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside. Potential target to the upside is the 100% fibonacci extension of wave (1)-(2) from September 2020 low at 37.54.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/12It was a wild week for the sectors as investors rotated in and out of Technology and Communications stocks. All sectors ended the week with gains.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was the big winner. Large stimulus checks will be delivered soon that are expected to be poured into the economy via consumer spending on both needs and wants.
Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) spent Monday at the bottom of the sector list, Tuesday at the top, Wednesday at the bottom, Thursday at the top, and Friday at the bottom. In the end, the two sectors landed just behind the SPX in performance, but did have gains for the day.
Financials (XLF) was also one to watch. It flipped back and forth as investors followed closely what was happening in the bond markets. The increase in yields could be a boon for Financials. The increased yields would have the opposite impact on big technology and communications companies and smaller growth companies. As yields went back and forth, so did the performance of these sectors.
Energy (XLE) ended the week as the worst sector. Although it had a big gain on Wednesday, it wasn't enough to cover the losses on Monday and Tuesday.
Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE) did not have any big days, but were on a steady rise throughout the week. They ended the week in 2nd and 3rd place on the list. The two sectors are often used as defensive plays.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/5If you kept your eyes only on big tech and growth stocks, you might have missed that many sectors had fairly good advances this week. The sector chart supports the thesis that there is an outsized rotation in progress that is presenting as a correction, but that there is still a level of support in the broader equities market.
The top two sectors, Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF), never dipped into negative territory even with Thursday's broad sell-off.
The other cyclical Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) also performed well for the week. Materials was leading for the week at the end of Tuesday, but backed off a bit later in the week.
There was caution visible in the sectors as Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) advanced.
Investors moved from sectors that are more exposed to pressures from inflation and higher yields. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) were the hardest hit among the sectors. Real Estate (XLRE) is also at the bottom of the list.
At center stage is the bond market sell-off that is driving higher yields. Interest rates that are based on the yields will make borrowing costs higher. Add to that fears of higher inflation would bring interest rate adjustments earlier than initially expected. The higher interest rates benefit big banks that drive the Financials sector higher. But it depresses the net present value that was priced into high growth sectors like Technology.
JPM Bearish to 150 areaIf you look at JPM on a Weekly chart its at the upper end of the range...
On the hourly this is the third time it's attempted to break above 155
Options open interest is centered around the 150 level
Like to see JPM back towards the support level
Could see a scenario where rates cool off...banks pull back and tech catches a bid...little rotation action maybe in the cards
Funny to watch both banks and big tech suck-up so hard to those in political power