Get started

XLI

SOX UpdateI have no problem with bold predictions, reversals I do well. SOX has historically led out of the gates on reversals. SOX has broken the downtrend, and successfully tested a Gartley retrace. While we still have an Ichy cloud resistance overhhead, I believe the market bottom is in. Will there be another selloff? Likely. However, I believe a new market bottom lower than the October low in SPY is unlikely. We also have financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) showing a similar trend reversal. So lets pull for more green shoots.
NASDAQ:SOXLong
by UnknownUnicorn13101
Reverse Head & Shoulders on Industrials ETF, Target at 208Chart Pattern/Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the Daily Chart. The Vanguard Industrials ETF appears to be in a Reverse or Inverted Head & Shoulders chart pattern setup which began developing over the last couple of months. The Left Shoulder is observed around the 182.30 lows in 28th January 2022. The Head of the chart pattern setup is seen at the 176.31 low on 24th February. The Right Shoulder is spotted at the 183 support zone for the ETF. The Neckline for the chart pattern can be constructed from the lower highs of 194.82 and 191.89 respectively. The completion of the Reverse or Inverted Head & Shoulders chart pattern setup is seen around the 208 price level. A negation of this setup will be known if the ETF falls below the Neckline. Technical Indicators The technical indicators support the bullish view of this note. The ETF VIS is above its 145-SMA on the Daily Chart. Also, in mid March VIS closed above the sell zone of resistance at the 192 price level to enter a new buy zone. The ETF is still in this buy mode. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is above 0 and green, while the RSI is over the 50 level. There was some bullish divergence for the RSI, when VIS was making lower lows at the Left Shoulder and Head of the chart pattern setup, the RSI was making higher lows. The intra-day trend following indicators of VIS also display uptrends in the 15-Min, 2-Hour and 4-Hour time frames. The near-term support zone for the ETF is observed around the 191.75 to 195.75 price range. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 192 and a target of 208. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.53. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
AMEX:VISLong
by Ceddy86
$DE Weekly Breakout.I really like this setup here. Deere & Company consolidated for about two years and then moved to the upside for a 120% gain over the next year. Then it rested and digested those gains for about ten months. This week $DE broke out of the consolidation on heavy volume. What I really like about this breakout is the previous week saw heavy selling volume signifying the remaining sellers exited their positions. A doji candle formed suggesting indecision on behalf of traders. Well, it looks like the decision has been made to the upside. RSI is also positive and pointing upwards. I like $DE with a short to medium term 20% upside based on the width of the base. A close below $400 would be bearish and the thesis would be invalid IMO. A more aggressive stop would be the high of the 3/15/21 weekly candle. $392.42. Full Disclosure: I am long $DE.
NYSE:DELong
by Breakout_Charts
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 9/13Materials (XLB) led the sector list for the week, getting a massive boost on Tuesday and Wednesday after the Infrastructure bill passed the Senate. Industrials (XLI) also got a boost from the bill. Financials (XLF) contented for the top spot, gaining from rising Treasury yields that positively impact performance for the sector. However, yields dropped on Friday, and the sector dropped back to third place. The defensive sectors of Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) also ended the week near the top of the list, signaling caution throughout the week as investors worry about rising cases of COVID in the US and around the world. Energy (XLE) had a few good days but ended the week in the last place.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
CAT Short - Caterpillar, Inc. - The Double Top DropNYSE:CAT Short - Caterpillar, Inc. - The Double Top Drop This short biased thesis is based on the following factors: A double top that was recently formed and confirmed A Bearish Three Black Crows candle stick pattern followed the second top (of the double top) A large series of dark pool prints totaling around $882M came in on June 25th, all around the $216.31 price level. Although we do not know the nature of this trade, we are currently trading under this level and continued downside price action will further increased the probability that this trade was a sell. Possible Threats: The $212.62 fib defined level may show support where price action may struggle or bounce from. Short term tactical sentiment for XLI is starting to recover from a bearish downtrend and may show upward momentum from here that could lift CAT up enough to hit the Stop Loss. That nature of the large dark pool trades are unknown and can only be inferred. The June 29 Bar is being used to define the following trade parameters: Short Entry: $214.58 Stop Loss: $218.71 Possible Targets: $207 - First meaningful fib level $200.17 - A previous trend high that was used as a fib definition point $197 - Based on a fib level that has show to have acted as reasonable resistance and support $190 - Based on the rounding to a whole number on the closest fib level Other targets can be based on the fib levels show in the chart or by drawing support lines This thesis/idea is just my opinion based on the information discussed within. None of it should be looked as a recommendation or as financial advice. NYSE:CAT Daily Chart NYSE:CAT Weekly Chart
NYSE:CATShort
by Rhythmic
1
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/11It was a mix of defensive sectors and growth stocks at the top of the sector list this week, while the cyclical sectors took a step back. Real Estate (XLRE) led the sector list, continuing to gain on a solid housing market, higher rents, as well as a defense against potential inflation. Health Care (XLV) also rallied this week, ending the week in second place on the sector list. Eli Lilly (LLY) helped boost the sector with news that the FDA may approve a new Alzheimer's therapy. The stock and the sector faded late in the week on the controversy over statements made by the company. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were third and fourth on the list, with steady increases throughout the week as investors became more confident in the growth trade. The cyclical stocks fell this past week. Financials (XLF) suffered from lower treasury yields, potentially impacting interest rates that drive revenue for the sector. Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) declined as more of congress pushes back on Biden's infrastructure spending proposals.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Industrials needs a breatherXLI, the Sultan, was the ultimate DOW mover. He ruled over everyone including hedge fund managers. Tuesdays action to the upside was great but gave it up at the end of the day. Wed and Thursday continued to the downside. On Friday, the Sultan tapped the 8 day EMA and came back up but closed below previous day high. The issue with XLI is the channels are small. If this low channel is to break, look out below cause I'm thinking of a 3 point move down to 102 as support. Based on HON, FDX, and UPS, Sultan's rule might be done for this coming two weeks.
AMEX:XLIShort
by CTRLZEEE
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/28Growth sectors stole the show this week as investors put inflation worries aside and boosted Communications (XLC) and Technology (XLK) early in the week. The focus was on the growth sectors from Monday to Wednesday. Technology faded back in the list, buy Consumer Discretionary (XLY) joined Communications to end the week at the top of the list. On Thursday, there was a rotation into cyclicals, bringing Industrials (XLI) higher in the list. Industrials ended the week in fourth place. Friday brought out the defensive plays heading into a three-day weekend and the start of the summer months. That gave a boost to Real Estate (XLRE), Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Consumer Staples (XLP). Real Estate (XLRE) ended in third place for the week, while Health Care and Utilities remained at the bottom two sectors for the week.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
5
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/7It was the cyclical sectors that ruled the week. Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) were the top four sectors of the week. The cyclical sectors are benefiting from a pick-up in economic activity driving demand for products from building materials, infrastructure and the manufacturing of consumables. Supply has not been able to keep up with the increased demand, driving commodity prices higher. Timber, Copper, Aluminum are all skyrocketing. And demand for oil is increasing as transportation picks back up. While the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) hit new all-time records, there were four sectors that lost for the week. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) fell on Monday thru Wednesday along with the Nasdaq, as investors rotated to re-opening and infrastructure stocks. Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) were the bottom two sectors. Investors did not have interest in the defensive equity plays this week. Investors remain confident in the equities market, but are playing toward value, re-opening and infrastructure.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/23The S&P 500 had a slight loss for the week, but there were two sectors that soared despite the market. Real Estate (XLRE) ended the week as the top sector, advancing over 2%. Three factors helped the sector breakout and then stay on top the whole week. The economic recovery is a boon for the real estate industry as occupancy rates climb driving demand and prices higher. Interest rates remain low thanks to the Fed's continued easy money policy, keeping costs low. And in a climate of nervous investors, fearful of new lockdowns around the world, the real estate sector becomes a nice defensive play that has growth potential as well. Healthcare (XLV) was the second best sector of the week. The sector has lagged behind the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year. Positive earnings reports from UnitedHealth (UNH) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) over the past few weeks gave it the momentum needed to catch up with a 1.81% advance this week. The only other sectors that had gains for the week were Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI), both responding positively to great economic recovery news. At the bottom of the sector list were Energy (XLE) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). Energy stocks continue to underperform as oil prices have been dropping in recent weeks. Consumer Discretionary was a big part of the S&P 500 setting records the previous three weeks and was due to pause or pullback this week. Earnings reports from Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) next week will have a big influence on the sector performance.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/19Inflation, yields and the fed, oh my! The sectors were all over the place this week, all driven by nervousness about an overheating economy and how the fed might react. Monday started the week with the defensive sector Utilities (XLU) at the top. On Tuesday, Retail sales data for February showed the economy wasn't overheating and inflation may not be on the rise. That gave investors some confidence and despite bond yields rising, interest rate sensitive sectors such as Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) rose to the top. After the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Jerome Powell acknowledge the increased outlook on the economy for 2021, but made a firm statement that interest rates would not be raised and bond purchasing programs would continue. You can clearly see the spike in Technology and Communications again after 2:00p on Wednesday. But then bond investors had their reaction on Thursday. As market open approached, bond investors sold heavily in the morning, sending yields on a surge again. Industrials (XLI) did well for most of the day but sold off before close. Only Financials (XLF) ended the day with a gain. Finally on Friday, bond yields climbed but at a smaller rate with the yield curve flattening a bit. That allowed several sectors to find some upside. Communication Services ended the week at the top sector. Energy (XLE) was the worst performing sector of the week as crude oil prices plummeted on less demand, losing over 7.5% and dragging down the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) with it.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/5If you kept your eyes only on big tech and growth stocks, you might have missed that many sectors had fairly good advances this week. The sector chart supports the thesis that there is an outsized rotation in progress that is presenting as a correction, but that there is still a level of support in the broader equities market. The top two sectors, Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF), never dipped into negative territory even with Thursday's broad sell-off. The other cyclical Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) also performed well for the week. Materials was leading for the week at the end of Tuesday, but backed off a bit later in the week. There was caution visible in the sectors as Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) advanced. Investors moved from sectors that are more exposed to pressures from inflation and higher yields. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) were the hardest hit among the sectors. Real Estate (XLRE) is also at the bottom of the list. At center stage is the bond market sell-off that is driving higher yields. Interest rates that are based on the yields will make borrowing costs higher. Add to that fears of higher inflation would bring interest rate adjustments earlier than initially expected. The higher interest rates benefit big banks that drive the Financials sector higher. But it depresses the net present value that was priced into high growth sectors like Technology.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
4
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 2/26It's a good week to take a close look at the sectors and see how the market moved around during pullbacks in the major indexes. Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) were joined at the hip, finding themselves at the top of the sector list on Monday and Wednesday and at the bottom of the list on Friday. However the days spent at the top were enough to allow them to end the week in 1st and 2nd place. However, Energy was the only sector that could keep gains to end the week in the positive. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) took a beating throughout the week as investors moved away from these sectors fearing the impact of inflation and higher interest rates. Utilities (XLU) is usually in play when investors are nervous. It showed up at the top of the list on Tuesday and Thursday, but ended the week at the bottom of the list. The cyclical stocks Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) outperformed the SPX for a second week. Along with Energy and Financials, these cyclical sectors were top performers for the whole month of February.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
6
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 2/19It was a week for the cyclical stocks. Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), Materials (XLB), and Industrials (XLI) were the only sectors to close the week with gains. That was not the case for the entire week. Communication Services (XLC) started the week with gains but faded in the last two days. Utilities (XLU) had one day as the leading sector on Thursday, but moved back to the bottom of the list on Friday. Health Care (XLV) was the worst performing sector of the week.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 1/8Energy (XLE) finds itself back at the top of the sector list for the first week of 2021. It's not something you might expect as the blue wave hit US politics, which doesn't bode well for traditional energy stocks. However, crude oil is over $50 a barrel for the first time since April after Saudi Arabia surprisingly cut output. The blue wave did have some expected impact this week. After the Georgia run-off results showed Democrats would take control of the senate, US Treasury Bond yields took off as investors expect more stimulus that would further impact the US Dollar. That caused Financials (XLF), especially big banks, to have big gains on Wednesday and Thursday. Materials (XLB) benefited from the blue wave news, as we can expect big investments in US infrastructure with the new administration. Industrials (XLI) also had a boost on Wednesday, with some benefit from infrastructure spend, but also several segments like airlines likely to benefit from further stimulus. However, Industrials did not continue the rise and ended the week behind the S&P 500. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) got a boost on Friday, perhaps from higher than expected Consumer credit numbers on top of the promise of new stimulus. Quite a few people had a good Christmas it seems. At the bottom of the list is Real Estate (XLRE) which is likely to suffer in the bottom line from the higher interest rates. Technology (XLK) had the opposite reaction to the blue wave on Wednesday but regained from losses on Thursday and Friday to end the week just behind Industrials. Also notable is Utilities (XLU) which lost for the week, but had gains on Friday as a defensive move heading into a likely emotion filled weekend for the United States.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321