SPX, TRAN and XLI Top down approach/ intermarket relationships Nice recovery at the end of today's session, the medium term support area around 1820 remains intact on SPX.
DJ transportation has almost closed positive today despite the overall market drop. I'm looking at XLI as a possible buy on a short term basis.
XLI
MACRO VIEW: XLI HOLDS 10-YEAR UPTREND, STILL NOT BACK IN 5-YEARXLI holds 10-year uptrend at the august selloff, but did not yet recover its 5-year uptrend.
On long term perspective price has failed its 5-year uptrend (fell below 5-year uptrend border) and tested its 10-year trend during the august selloff (tagged the 10-year uptrend border). The 10-year uptrend test proved successful and the price has been recovering since then.
On short term perspective nothing stands in the way of the recovery, as price is showing no short term trends - XLI is trading within 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means.
Thus price is likely to return into long term uptrend if it breaks above 55. Downside risk will be apparent below 50 level.
XLI bullish- Morning star bullish reversal pattern points higherXLI extended the downleg off 56.47 (June 18, 2015 high) via a 6-week falling channel to reach 52.46 Monday (July 27, 2015), near 61.8% of the 48.83/58.23 rise and the channel support as well. Subsequent strong rebound forms a morning star bullish reversal pattern (as shown on the daily chart) and signal further strength towards the 54.20/54.52 zone (July 23/22, 2015 highs) near the channel resistance. A decisive breakout there is needed to suggest a significant low is in place for a move towards 55.15 (July 17, 2015 lower high). However, failure to hold the 52.46 low would negate the near-term bullish scenario and accelerate the YTD downtrend towards 51.04 (76.4% of the 48.83/58.23 rise).
Outlook:
Short term: bullish
Long term: neutral
General Electric safer long after first pull backI have begun slowly accumulating $GE in Jan. after the #2 Excess Demand signal on Jan 20. Average is $24.13 with staggered stops below $24.47, $24.23 and $23.55. However, I think the real long term opportunity will present itself on the first pull back after the January bottom. This is shaping up to occur after the $25.48 (approx.) level is tagged. This is my "L7" Cyclical Resist on the chart. The initial bullish target after that pull back is now looking like the mid $26 area at my "L9" Cyclical Support on the chart. Furthermore, I want to see a $GE breakout vs $SPY (see attached chart).
S&P Sector Review - A Look at Relative PerformanceThe charts above show the performance of each sector relative to all nine sectors combined. XLK tech couldn't be included due to having only 8 panes but it was included in determining the sector ratios. Important to keep in mind that these are ratios, all prices could go lower or higher together but what I'm interested in here is purely the relative performance. Also, in order for one to outperform is ensuring that another sector somewhere is underperforming.
Top Row:
XLU Utilities, XLP Consumer staples, XLF financials and XLV Health are all breaking out on a relative basis. 3 of 4 can be considered defensive sectors. Financials are interesting in that the sector was completely demolished after the 2008 recession and appear to be breaking out of a 5 yr wedge.
Bottom Row:
XLE Energy issues are widely known. Not much to say other then its possible that they go lower longer term and return to previous levels (.10-.12 of the total). The "energy commodities are an asset class" theme may finally be unwound and if so XLE could suffer from underperformance for some time (oversold bounces excluded). XLB materials have not broken down yet but look quite vulnerable. XLY Consumer discretionary did break down and may have recently been saved by the plunge in oil. Any economic weakness and i suspect this will quickly revert and this sector could significantly underperform. XLI Industrials looks like it could break out but has not yet. The transportation portion of this sector has significantly helped this sector.
Summary:
XLU - breaking out upwards, 6 yr wedge
XLP - breaking out upwards, 6 yr wedge
XLF - breaking out upwards, 5 yr wedge
XLV - breaking upper trend line important since 2011
XLE - broke out down, 6 yr wedge, approaching possible long term support
XLB - approaching bottom trend line important since 2002
XLY - broke ascending wedge lower, recently bounced back towards 2013 highs
XLI - sitting at upper trend line that has been important since 2000
XLK - Not shown