$SOXX SEMI CONDUCTOR STRENGHT WILL NOT BE DENIEDI like the setup I am seeing for resolution to the upside for semi-conductors here. I do have one concern but I'll address that shortly.
On the left is a weekly candle chart of SOXX the iShares semi-conductor ETF. The upward trendline from the covid-crash trough is firmly intact. The 100 Day EMA has proven to be key support. The index started consolidating the second week of November after a 10% move up the previous week. The index has been in that consolidation period ever since - perfectly normal and healthy. During the consolidation phase a support level around $516 has been established. What I don't like are the upper wicks on the candles during this consolidation phase. It shows that prices have not been able to breakout to the upside despite trying to push higher. If your looking for an entry, either a level down closer to support or a close above the upper wicks would be a better spot then where the index currently sits.
I do believe that the current evidence points to a breakout of the consolidation. Here's my case:
1) The long term uptrend is firmly intact.
2) Consolidations are continuation patterns.
3) Relative strength to the broader index (soxx/spy) is testing a breakout level after forming a deep base that goes back nearly a year.
4) After a tough chop-filled week in the markets XLK showed relative strength to SPY on Friday's close. The majority of the names in the XLK that outperformed it's sector were semi-conductor names.
5) XLK/SPY showed a move higher before getting to previous support - relative strength improving due to semi-conductor names in the XLK.
Links to my watchlists:
SPY Sectors - www.tradingview.com
XLK Holdings - www.tradingview.com
SOXX Holdings - www.tradingview.com
Toggle by change% and everything above the index ticker outperformed for the day.
XLK
QQQ Put Credit SpreadI believe tech will remain strong, and this trade also has a large margin of error.
Opened for a 0.40 Credit.
Looking at the chart, this trade lines up perfectly with a support zone, in addition QQQ is still trending upwards on a quarterly basis. This is a bit of a reversion trade in the sense that I am taking advantage of the pullback to collect adequate premium at a low delta short strike ( 0.14 or 1.4 STD).
This trade in combination with the XLE trade from yesterday has shifted my portfolio from Delta neutral to a small long market bias.
100sma is being tested for the 10th timeMSFT has tested and bounced of the 100sma 9 times, since September 2020.
In all of the 9 tests, RSI was in the 30s, but not oversold. It is currently at the same level.
Besides the multiple tests of the 100sma, we have three tests of the bottom of the horizontal range (drawn with purple horizontal lines). We could potentially see a fill the gap situation short-term.
I think it is a great place to buy.
Placing layered stop-exits to preserve gains.
Risk-reward-ratio is over 4, for a better understanding of the trade, check the Long Position projection to the right of the chart.
Good luck.
Opening: XLK January 21st 152/181 Short Strangle... for a 2.42 credit.
Comments: Selling 16 delta premium in the QQQ-"lite" exchange-traded fund, XLF (rank 71/30-day implied 29.7%). 2.42 max profit on buying power effect of 21.63 (on margin); 11.2% ROC as a function of buying power effect; 5.6% at 50% max.
Will look to take profit at 50% max; manage sides on approaching worthless/side test.
AMD Bull Scenario
AMD triggers Bull to Mark Up into our Bull Targets
AMD finds support at our Bear Trigger to Mark Up into our Bull Trigger
Bear Scenario
AMD triggers Bear into our Bear Targets
AMD finds Resistance at our Bull Trigger and Marks Down into our Bear Targets
Neutral
Price action stays within our Trigger levels (inventory rebalance)
Side Note
Each level has potential to reverse not all targets may be met.
Elliott Wave View: Technology ETF (XLK) Looking to Break to New Short Term view in XLK suggests the rally from October 5 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from October 5, wave ((i)) ended at 153.71 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 149.60. Internal of wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 150.53 and wave (b) pullback ended at 153.15. Stock then resumes lower in wave (c) which ended at 149.60. This completed wave ((ii)).
The stock has rallied higher in wave ((iii)). Internal of wave ((iii)) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive structure. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 151.61 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 150.00. Stock has resumed higher in wave (iii) towards 156.71, wave (iv) ended at 154.61, and wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 159.18. The pullback in wave ((iv)) has begun to correct cycle from October 12. Wave (a) ended at 157.51. Expect the ETF to bounce higher in wave (b), then we are looking down for wave (c) to complete wave ((iv)) before the rally resumes in wave ((v)). Near term, as far as wave ((ii)) pivot low at 149.60 stays intact, expect wave ((iv)) pullback to find support in 156.91 – 155.97 area for further upside.
Twitter possible flag break at earningsI am currently watching Twitter ahead of the upcoming earnings. The last strong rise in 23 bars was consolidated for a very long time. The extended Fib would set a target zone of the psychological 100$ mark, which I think is realistic from a purely market-technical point of view. We are currently sitting on a cluster (58$ mark that has held again and again + EMA/MA200 + 61 Fib).
Why the Fib from here and not from the March rise? I personally think it is worth noting here that the BBs are starting to open properly here and FOR ME here the last bull run is starting. If we set the Fib from March, the targets are too far away and this would not be in line with my trading strategy. Maybe quite a good approach for longer term oriented traders.
I would trade the breakout depending on earnings and volume and see how the current market sentiment is. If we see a bullish tech sector (watch the XLK ETF, especially the volume) then I would be compliant with the trade.
Of course, to keep the trade longer, you would also have to watch the behavior of the stock at the ATH. This of course needs to be adjusted to your own trading strategy. For me as a Swing/Positrader no problem. Who trades shorter term, should of course pay attention to his CRV / risk management.
Excuse my English, as a German I give my best :)
SPDR Technology (XLK) Fund - Touching top of Trading ChannelChannels that I see with the SPDR select technology fund. It was pretty well contained in this channel since 2008, but as you can see the COVID rally has pushed it way above. Right now it is in a larger parallel channel that has its mid line (red dotted) just above the major peaks since 2015. Will this channel hold Tech? HArd to tell, but so far it has been strong enough to buck an 11 year trend.
1D
4h
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 8/27A mix of growth and cyclical sectors topped the list this week. Defensive s all sectors declined for the week after topping the sector list last week.
Energy (XLE) held the lead among sectors for the entire week, despite a pullback on Thursday. The sector completely recovered from last week's decline and marked a higher high this week.
All of the cyclical and growth sectors had solid gains, with Financials (XLF) ending the week in second place. Technology (XLK) trailed the other gaining sectors, underperforming the overall S&P 500 but still finished with a +1.45% gain.
Utilities (XLU) was the worst-performing sector for the week as investors rotated out of defensive positions and back into bullish cyclical and growth positions.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 8/20Defensive sectors led throughout this week as the Market absorbed data that showed a slowing economic recovery and meeting minutes from the Fed that indicated tapering could begin this year.
Utilities (XLU) and Health Care (XLV) exchanged the lead several times, and the finish was close. Utilities came out on top as a favorite place for investors to keep money in equities, but take a defensive stance toward the economy. Health Care also did well as the world watches another wave of the pandemic brought on by the Delta variant of COVID.
Technology (XLK) also mixed in with the defensive sectors at the top of the list. Big tech seems to be another safe play for equity investors with Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all turning in strong financials and appear resilient to new waves of lockdowns.
Suffering the most from fears of economic slowdown as well as the pandemic, Energy (XLE) came in the last place for the week with a huge loss of over 7%.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/30Materials (XLB) was the top sector of the week as manufacturing and core durable goods data showed increase demand and was confirmed in consumer spending numbers. The growth in the sector was matched by increased prices in metal commodities required to support economic expansion.
Energy (XLE) started the week strong and led several days throughout the week, but ended in second place behind Materials at the end of the week.
The three worst sectors were the growth sectors, all losing for the week. Technology (XLK), Communication Services (XLC), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were at the bottom of the weekly sector list.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/23Utilities (XLU) dropped to the bottom of the sector list after leading in the previous week. It was all about Growth stocks this week as investors put off fears of the economy and looked forward to record earnings reports from big tech.
Communication Services (XLC) led the week thanks to huge earnings beat by SNAP and Twitter. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) were second and third.
Energy (XLE) briefly moved into the top spot on Wednesday afternoon before falling back and ending the week in second-to-last place. Only Utilities and Energy declined for the week.
Sector Rotation July 2020 - Money on Defensive?This week's dip on the AMEX:SPY revealed something important within the Sector Rotation model. For the last quarter the Sector Rotation model has been giving mixed signals following the clear predictive path it forecasted coming out of March 2020. This recent price shock provided a glimpse into where the money is moving right now!
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/16The sectors ended the week in a very character than they started the week. None of the leading sectors early in the week were leading by the end of the week.
Financials (XLF) started the week in first as investors anticipated earnings reports from big banks that began on Tuesday. By Friday, the sector slipped to the middle of the list, ending the week with a -1.61% decline.
Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) took over the top spots for Tuesday and most of Wednesday. They also reversed downward and ended the week with losses.
The only sectors to end the week with gains were Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Real Estate (XLRE). The defensive sectors gained ground at the end of the week as worries over the economy grew among investors.
Energy (XLE) was at the bottom of the list, dropping -7.89% this week. OPEC+ continues to have disagreements, destabilizing the sector along with the price of oil. Add the fears of a slowing recovery, and investors are exiting positions in the sector that performed well in the first half of 2021.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/9The short week was defined mainly by Thursday's sell-off in equities as Treasury bond yields were sliding. That gave a boost to two defensive sectors, Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU), but the two sectors were already leading from Monday. The worries ended on Friday, but the two sectors remained in the lead for the week.
Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were the next two sectors at the top of the list, showing a mix of risk-on and risk-off sentiment throughout the week.
The cyclical sectors moved from the top of the sector list on Wednesday to the bottom of the list on Thursday, back to the top of the list on Friday.
Energy (XLE) was a consistent loser throughout the week until finally finding itself at the top of the list on Friday. However, the gains were not enough to move it out of the bottom position for the week.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/2Technology (XLK) led the sector list this week, propelled higher by strong economic data and significant gains by big tech. Communications (XLC) led briefly on Monday after a judge threw out two cases brought against Facebook. The decision was a blow to regulators and a boon to several tech mega-caps facing similar challenges.
Utilities (XLU) also led at the beginning of the week but quickly retreated and ended the week at a loss.
Energy (XLE) had a volatile start to the week due to increased pandemic fears. The continued demand for Oil, driving prices higher, eventually brought investors back to the sector. However, it wasn't enough to lift the sector out of the bottom position in the sector list.
The three secular growth sectors outperformed the broader S&P 500 index this week, while cyclical sectors underperformed.