XLMUSD November historically starts the parabolic rally. BUY.Stellar Lumens (XLMUSD) has been trading below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) since the week of April 08, consolidating in what is technically a wide Accumulation Phase on every Cycle below a Lower Highs trend-line.
Having entered November today though, sparks a wave of optimism in the market as historically on a 4-year frequency, this month is very bullish as the Cycle's Parabolic Rally starts. What basically confirms it is a break above the Lower Highs trend-line and of course the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which always have emphatic rejections (July 10 2023, August 17 2020, September 16 2019) during the first stage of the Bull Cycle.
As a result, it is a good time to buy now that the price is close to its 2-year lows. Naturally the Target can't be above the All Time High Zone (consisting of the last to Cycle Highs), our take is its bottom at 0.800.
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Xlmusdsignals
XLMUSD Above the 1W MA200 for the first time in more than 1 yearStellar (XLMUSD) hit and broke today above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the week of May 02 2022. That's more than 1 year of trading below a key long-term Resistance that is now broken. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has supported this price action for the past 2 weeks.
The time XLM hit the 1W MA200 during the previous Cycle, it failed to close the week above it and had a medium-term pull-back to the safety of the 1W MA50 before it started the final part of the parabolic rally from October 2020 to May 2021. Notice that the 1W RSI then was on the exact same (overbought) level it is today.
As a result, if it fails to close above the 1W MA200, we will wait for a pull-back to buy, preferably as close to the 1W MA50 as possible. If it closes above the 1W MA200 though, we will buy on the market price. In either case, we will target the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the multi-cycle Triangle pattern at 0.7000.
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XLMUSDT Failing to break the 1D MA50.*** ***
For this particular analysis on STELLAR we are using the XLMUSDT symbol on the Phemex exchange.
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The idea is on the 1D time-frame where Stellar Lumen has been consolidating since its May 31 short-term High, which is still a Lower High within the Channel Down pattern that started in November 2021 and more importantly having failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is technically the short-term Resistance.
This is familiar ground for Stellar inside this pattern as every time the RSI entered the 55.00 - 60.00 Zone, the price got rejected on the 1D MA50. As a result, until proven otherwise and a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50, the price remains bearish within the Channel Down towards the the 0.10400 Low and in extension (upon 1D candle closing below) the -0.382 Fibonacci extension level.
On the other hand, if Stellar does close a candle above the 1D MA50, we can take a short-term break-out buy trade targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). A buying extension on the long-term can only be sustainable if the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level breaks (0.2017 currently), which within the Channel Down has never been broken during a Lower Highs rebound. If that happens this time, then it would mean a price break-out above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) too, which is unbroken for the whole 2022.
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XLMUSD Accumulation almost over. Look for a 1D MA200 break.Stellar got rejected at the end of December on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and that stopped the rebound from developing into a full rally sequence. That is the Resistance to beat if XLM wants to see a new bullish phase. Practically the pattern from late June until now seems like a giant Accumulation Phase and both in price action and 1D RSI terms is similar with that of April - November 2020.
It was a 1D Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200) that started the Accumulation Phase and another that priced its bottom and ended it. The Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200) was formed on the peak of the first price rally, so it just confirmed it. Right now XLMUSD is coming off that second Death Cross, so we can argue that the bottom may already be priced in. The confirmation however will come in my opinion once the 1D MA200 breaks, so if you don't want to risk buying now, then buy upon a break-out.
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$XLM is bullish but not short term.There are two possible scenarios green and red paths.
0.6562 would become a support or resistance.
If it resist a cup and handle pattern would be possible otherwise a breakout and retest will occur with higher high.
The possibility of a resistance is more because of high funding rates.
Just an possible idea.
XLMUSD The bottom is in. Significant upside potential.I am looking into Stellar on today's crypto study, which is giving me a strong sign that the bottom to this downtrend may be in.
I am comparing the current candle sequence with a the 2017 fractal, right before XLMUSD took off to a 5500% parabolic rise in a period of less than 100 days. A rise of that magnitude of course depends on a variety of factors so I am not suggesting that XLM will skyrocket by that much in such a short period of time. But the comparison may be a good indication to call the bottom at least and allow traders invest a portion of their crypto portfolio on Stellar.
To be more exact, on the 2017 sequence, a 1D Golden Cross quickly succeeded a Death Cross, which is a few days printed a long wick bearish candle. A similar pattern emerged now, with the exception that following the closing of that candle, the price is gradually extending the decline. My idea is that it gives traders the opportunity to buy using the end of the wick as a stop. Low risk on what can be a huge return trade.