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ridethepig | Consumer Staples (Chapter 2)The following diagram illustrates the breakup of a globalisation advance: Since the retrace in VIX has found a hard floor into the 25 lows, we may characterise the advance as an endgame for our economic cycle purposes. Now the erroneous nature of Volatility advancing can be seen. The effect of demobilising the consumer will weigh heavy on Equities, not to mention how companies position capital more defensively going forward. Consumers are uncomfortable (at least from Q3/Q4 onwards) right on time for the stimulus to fade. The following swing, which will also be quoted in the previous leg in DAX is another example. I will go over the flows briefly at this point: Equities have now lost all sense of reality, the concussion in addition to Fed conceding far too much mobility; so this may rightfully be classified as the end of an economic cycle, or at least until capitalism returns from its sabbatical.
AMEX:XLPShort
by ridethepig
4
OPENING (IRA): XLP JAN 17TH 52 SHORT PUT... for a .40 credit. Notes: Another "not a penny more" short put with a resulting cost basis of 51.60/share if assigned. As with my XLU and HYG not a penny mores (See Posts Below), will look to roll "as is" for a credit on at least a quarterly basis until assigned or that's no longer productive. Current yield of 2.99%; $178 annualized on a one lot ... . This trade kind of rounds out what was on the remainder of my IRA shopping list which has focused on dividend yielders like IYR, HYG, XLU, and XLP. I'm already in IYR covered calls and in HYG and XLU short put plays.
AMEX:XLPLong
by NaughtyPines
$SPY LONG-TERM OUTLOOK ... STILL (BEARISH!)Before we get started, I just wanna say that the method used here is an extension of an article written in 2015 on Stockcharts called "This Signal Is Bullish And Rarely Fails". Worth a read to better, it's a short article with more depth, but the forecast is outdated. In short: Consumer sentiment always leads the Stock market. Okay, so what's going on here? Someone once asked me about consumer spending "growing" that keeps getting reported in the news every day in relation with the GDP... Well, the GDP "numbers" are always a lagging indicator to an economic down turn. As for the consumer spending, that is where this chart comes to play. The idea is that we're charting the orange line with XLY (Consumer Discretionary - Things you WANT (like an x-box)) / XLP(Consumer Staple - Things you NEED (like soap)). So if the slope of the line is positive (all the green lines) then people are spending on things they WANT and not just NEED, hence signaling a positive sentiment in the economy and therefore we should expect a stronger market. Well if that's the case, then the opposite is also true. Meaning, if we have a negative slope (black lines on the XLY/XLP chart) this is signaling that there is a weakness in the economy and therefore we should expect a weaker market. However, this sentiment doesn't always go hand-in-hand with the market and ends up creating DIVERGENCES (shown in the chart) all of which have been leading indicators to past recessions and nowadays we have another NEG DIVERGENCE looming around. And as you can see, the consumer sentiment always turns before the market bottoms or peaks. Also, some people have argued that we've been in a recession that started late last year around the time SPY broke below the trend line from the 2009 lows. Remember that this is only one of the many red flags out there (Feds cutting rate, QE4 (or whatever you wanna call), BREXIT, The Deal, Hong-Kong (it's still happening)) that have kept me bearish on the market for while and that this analysis in not trying to 'time' the market, only predict the direction. As always... ***Let's talk about it...***
AMEX:SPYShort
by PartTimeGenius
1
Interesting divergence SPY/XLYI was messing around with my charts and noticed that SPY and XLY (Consumer Discretionary) are diverging. Looking back in time - with the exception of one littler divergence a couple years ago - I can't find anywhere else this has happened. Is this maybe a sign that the consumer is getting overly confident? When fear is turned off, things eventually get out of control. The other thing I noticed is that XLP (Consumer Staples) is gapping away from SPY and XLY to the upside. Guess when the last time XLP gapped away from SPY and XLY?? Yep, you guessed it! It was last year right before the market tanked. This would also (maybe) be a sign that consumers are getting overly confident.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Bankuur
XLP 200MA Trade and Seasonal DefensiveXLP has bounced off the 200MA. The last two moves pushed slightly through it, like this one, and the subsequent ramp was at least to the previous high (Feb-Mar) if not higher (Jan). The 2018 price/action below the MA shows this stock does take that indicator into account. The recovery looks to be finishing the final sub-wave of W3. March shows a slight pullback, so entering at 57 with a 1% stop (56.45) and a target of 59 (Jan 18 ATH) gives an RR of 3.64. XLP is of course a seasonal defensive.
AMEX:XLPLong
by adatherton
EPISODE 8/11: US CONSUMER STAPLES:WAVE+CHANNEL&INDICATOR TA(XLP)Episode 8/11 : US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 18th of July 2019 Brief Explanation of the chart: XLP : Consumer Staples has relatively been one of the worst performing sectors since the last recession. However, recently due to the many uncertainties in the economy(US/CHINA Trade relations), staples have performed quite well (+18.1% for 2019 so far) . Moreover, this newly found bullish strength can be observed in the Monthly breakout from the RSI/MACD divergence . The potential upside would be in the range of 65-75$ based on Wave 5 variations . There is one major structural support which is marked by the purple square( range of 48-51$) . Key note from this technical analysis is the growing volume, which can be an indication of several factors. The most outstanding factor to me would be the recent growth in volume . This means that there is an increasing number of investors who are looking for "defensive" stocks that primarily constitute the staples sector. Obviously, this is not a good sign for the future of the economy. This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research. >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! -Step_Ahead_ofthemarket- Check my Previous episodes on the US Sectors: EPISODE 7 : US CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY( XLY) : EPISODE 6 : US MATERIALS ( XLB ):
AMEX:XLP
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
Sector rotation Cyclical to Defensive I heard some interesting commentary this week from the pros about watching for signs in the cyclical:defensive sector ratio. I put together this chart using (XLK+XLI+XLB)/(XLP+XLU+XLV). It is a composite of tech, industrials and materials indexes as a ratio to staples, utils and health sector indexes. The chart ratio is about 1:1 right now. In a late stage economy if earnings expectations plunge in the cyclicals the chart ratio should show the capital rotation into the defensive sectors. Worth watching for a signal!
AMEX:XLK
by dime
4
Why The Yield Curve Matters To Utilities & Other Bond ProxiesThis chart of the U.S. 10s/2s curve and the SPDR S&P Utilities Sector ETF (XLU) is interesting. A few days ago, I was reading a blurb by a well-known outlet about utilities getting "smoked" during the Q4 equity route. Like above, performance is relative to time frame. Additionally,  you have to have a deeper understanding about what XLU is and what it can do. It's not enough to just assume utilities as "defensive" thus it protects you from a broad equity sell-0ff. This also coincides with some questions I get from subscribers: why advocate holding XLU and TLT? Yes, XLU is a bond proxy but it is not a bond. Its underlying is composed of equities. The TLT is composed of U.S. 7-10 year treasuries. They both perform well under low interest rate environments when yields trend lower. However, keep in mind that the XLU is still equity-based and won't protect you fully. Notice, XLU didn't blink until the 10s/2s began to steepen. It's been gung-ho since the curve flattened out. And if we went back through periods were the curve began to steepen, it effected other bond proxies much more dramatically like REITs. Flattening of the curve isn't the issue unless you're financials. It's the massive steepening caused by the Fed cutting interest rates that kill markets.
TVC:US10Y
by TheMacroStrategist
An Over-Stretched Market With Notable AnchorsAT40 = 41.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The stock market is stretched yet again based on AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs). AT40 closed the week at 41.2% after opening at 37% on Friday and closing at 38.7% on Wednesday. AT40 was last below 40% in late March and early April when the S&P 500 was in the process of forming a double bottom from the February swoon. AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, also broke down to a 3-month low. So on a relative basis, the S&P 500 (SPY) is not likely to go much lower from here without a specific and very bearish catalyst. The S&P 500’s ability to levitate above its uptrending 20DMA adds to the impression that support will hold. The NASDAQ and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) were last at all-time highs at the end of August. Both indices spent most of September pivoting around their uptrending 20DMAs. While the NASDAQ still looks locked into the pivoting, QQQ looks like it is breaking away. While these indices are holding up well, other major indices have created anchors weighing on AT40. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) sold off enough in September to break down below 50DMA support. The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) broke out for a brief moment in mid-September only to reverse sharply. XLF ended September at a 5-week low and 50/200DMA breakdown. The home builders represent another sector weighing on the market. On a percentage basis they are small, but the fresh technical breakdown last week spoke volumes. The volatility index, the VIX, muddles the technical picture. It dropped on Friday to 12.1. I typically would look for a rebound in the VIX from these levels; it is hard for me to expect a fresh rally in the stock market from here. Of course, a rally is still possible and would likely push the VIX to or into extremely low territory below 11. From there, the historical record shows the market can continue a bull run for quite some time. August’s very brief stay below 11 was a notable exception. Earnings season is coming up as the next major catalyst for the stock market. Until then, I cannot get too excited about the market’s upside prospects, but I also cannot get bearish with AT40 as low as it is.
SP:SPX
by drduru
Paper Portfolio vs S&P500 - Update #1This is the first update for the video series here to grow the paper portfolio on TradingView in an attempt to beat the 'S&P index real time. Normally, I will compare the portfolio to the market, talk about weak vs strong stocks and sectors & go into what I will be changing moving forward. The portfolio has been able to get ahead of the general market and below are the specific percentage changes if they weren't clear in the video: AUGUST 2018 Portfolio = +1.83% 'S&P Index ('SPX) = +1.36% 'SPY ETF = +1.57% So far there is only a small difference between the market and the portfolio, but with adjustments and the market moving however it wants to, the changes should be expected to be more different over time. In general and in brief, my process of dealing with my portfolio according to my trading strategy is to check the health of my portfolio to determine where weakness is coming from, then run a stock screen according to my very own specific criteria to pick out the stocks that have high chance of performing very well, and finally an analysis of the market sectors to make sure changes I make will make sense. So this time around my portfolio suggested reducing exposure to stocks in Energy, Financials and Industrials. My stock screen, compared to the previous stock screen run at the beginning of the portfolio, suggested reducing exposure to stocks in Energy, Financials, Technology & Utilities and increasing exposure in Basic materials, Consumer goods, Healthcare and Industrials. The market sector ETFs from the video also echoed a similar idea, and so the orders will be placed for Monday. I am considering putting more weight in the stocks that have a better chance of doing well than before but we will see what happens over the next month. Again this is will not be a one time "get rich quick" process with excessive risk-taking or gambling, but a more disciplined approach to trading. It takes some work and it can be tough to maintain discipline, but after a while it becomes routine. Again, monthly updates on the current state of the portfolio will be continued and the next one can be expected to be made on 10/06/18 (1 month from now) and every month from that point onward. Starting capital - $10,000 Risk per trade - 1% Max. positions at a time - 20 Investment style - Equities long only (no short-selling, only stocks >$7, technical analysis > fundamental analysis) The stocks shown will not be shown as investment advice but rather shown as a form of education only. Comment on what you would like to see or hear more about! Thanks and stay tuned (will try to keep videos not too long)!
AMEX:XLUEducation
by themdtrader