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XLP

MACRO VIEW: XLP IN FIRM MACRO UPTRENDConsumer Staples SPDR ETF is looking good on both short term and long term basis. On long term basis - XLP trades in both 5 and 10 year uptrend, as the price stands firmly above 1st upper standard deviations from both 5 and 10 year means It has tested its 5-year trend during the august selloff and held it successfully. On short term basis - XLP shows no trends in particular, as the price is firmly within the 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means. It is a positive development, since nothing on short term basis stands in the way of long term trends.
AMEX:XLPLong
by Killy_Mel
CHD Church & Dwight distribution$CHD looks like it's being trimmed on the up moves. See Excess Demand Supply signals. I will be trimming back and trailing up. Should not drop until the green "A" flips to a red "D". At that time (if other signals have not flipped green) Supply signals 1 thru 5 will be in alignment. Then I'll pull the trim trigger. Technical resistance above is at the $91 +/- zone. I am very confident it does not get through for many months. Perhaps over a year after this gigantic run. Support in the mid - high $70's. This is a great company. Rock solid. Old timer. I still want the dividend but I see the high probability of lower prices in the months ahead. Therefore, I will set resting buy orders to scale in the mid $70's. Just my thoughts. kilo1romeo.
NYSE:CHDShort
by kilo1romeo
2
S&P Sector Review - A Look at Relative PerformanceThe charts above show the performance of each sector relative to all nine sectors combined. XLK tech couldn't be included due to having only 8 panes but it was included in determining the sector ratios. Important to keep in mind that these are ratios, all prices could go lower or higher together but what I'm interested in here is purely the relative performance. Also, in order for one to outperform is ensuring that another sector somewhere is underperforming. Top Row: XLU Utilities, XLP Consumer staples, XLF financials and XLV Health are all breaking out on a relative basis. 3 of 4 can be considered defensive sectors. Financials are interesting in that the sector was completely demolished after the 2008 recession and appear to be breaking out of a 5 yr wedge. Bottom Row: XLE Energy issues are widely known. Not much to say other then its possible that they go lower longer term and return to previous levels (.10-.12 of the total). The "energy commodities are an asset class" theme may finally be unwound and if so XLE could suffer from underperformance for some time (oversold bounces excluded). XLB materials have not broken down yet but look quite vulnerable. XLY Consumer discretionary did break down and may have recently been saved by the plunge in oil. Any economic weakness and i suspect this will quickly revert and this sector could significantly underperform. XLI Industrials looks like it could break out but has not yet. The transportation portion of this sector has significantly helped this sector. Summary: XLU - breaking out upwards, 6 yr wedge XLP - breaking out upwards, 6 yr wedge XLF - breaking out upwards, 5 yr wedge XLV - breaking upper trend line important since 2011 XLE - broke out down, 6 yr wedge, approaching possible long term support XLB - approaching bottom trend line important since 2002 XLY - broke ascending wedge lower, recently bounced back towards 2013 highs XLI - sitting at upper trend line that has been important since 2000 XLK - Not shown
AMEX:XLU
by SMP99
Re: STOCKS: DESPITE RALLY, INVESTORS REMAIN DEFENSIVE! Seeing a great idea from our dear mod Technician, i decided to check this a bit more and see if there is any tight correlation. Going backwards i actually does show some correlation in 2011 and 2007. Whenever XLY/XLP changed a trend and/or showed divergence to the price action, the stock index would go down as well. The ration was good to be used to see the top even - something you dont quite see everyday. Still after 2000, the ratio was not the best to follow. While it was going up, the stock marktes were going down. I guess the crashes were different and one of the pair was acting differently (most probably; further checking needed). Still should one believe the current dip may be a prequel to a a-la-2008 dip, then XLY/XLP is setting up for that - there is so far a downward trading channel, and the current top in it is the current top in the stock index. Should the ratio dip below the previous trend support line (1.40 - 1.47 depending on the place), it may be 2011-type first, and then see for yourself. A good idea to monitor these still, and something i discovered for myself. Again, props to Technician for bringing this to my attention.
SP:SPXShort
by A-shot
2
Confidence Ratio Going DownA great indicator to determine the confidence (ie. risk appetite) of investors/speculators is the XLY/XLP ratio. XLY is the ETF for consumer discretionary stocks whereas XLP is the ETF for constumer staples stocks. In times of confidence, XLY should perform better than XLP because there is belief that the economy is doing well and that people will spend cash on things that are not absolutely necessary. The ratio has been tracking US equities indexes fairly well over the last years, but now we see major divergence. XLY/XLP is moving down and from a technical analysis standpoint it does not look like it is about to go rise back anytime soon. Yet, at the same time, the S&P 500 has been hitting all-time highs. This performance seems like it is not supported by risk appetite - which it should! So what should you do from here? Short this ratio? Short the S&P? That is all up to you. This is just another factor from a long list that supports the thesis that equities are overextended. Good luck trading.
AMEX:XLYShort
by Fouezz