Last week, U.S. housing starts, a key economic measure of new residential construction, dropped to their lowest level since 2020, with single-family housing starts hitting a 16-month low. Meanwhile, overall housing inventory has climbed to its highest point since 2020, and new housing inventory has reached levels not seen since 2008. Despite a moderating mortgage...
“The only bad time to buy real estate is later” cites investment wisdom. But, when interest rates soar high, real estate investments can and do hurt. Last week FOMC reiterated its resolve to fight inflation down to its target 2%. Inflation has been stubborn and sticky. It has shown signs of trend reversal towards resurgence. Chair Powell’s made clear that rate...
Maybe finally turnaround, looks nice and the volume is higher too.
Real Estate looks to be in for a bumpy ride. this ETF has just triggered a massive breakdown that suggest much more downside. Why is real estate so weak? 2 words...Rising Yields.
DRV as a ETF of real estate stocks is likely somewhat responsive to the financial environment. My idea is that the recent rate hike of 0.25% will adversely effect home sales and liquidity especially given that the Fed has indicated that there will be on easing this year but perhaps some pauses. They take August off for the conference and party. The 2H chart...
OPEN has earnings upcoming on 8/3. An analysis of the 4H chart with overlays shows bullish momentum in the set of zero lag EMA lines as well as upgoing anchored VWAP landlines. Price crossed over the mean VWAP ( thin black) and the POC line of the volume profile one month ago. The MACD shows bullish momentum since July 24th. The dual RSI indicator shows the...
XLRE is trying to breakout of a small basing formation. With rates surging recently one has to question a potential failure of this breakout, however if it does breakout there may be some significant momentum to the upside. Could this breakout coincide with a sudden drop in rates?
OPEN a disruptive company in the residential real estate sector as shown on the 1H chart has continued out of a pullback. Is the continuation sustainable? I believe that inflation has become imbedded into the economy. Banks have survived the crisis with federal support and action. The Z score and relative trend index are impressive with the present...
The low interest rates set by central banks in recent years have led to a real estate boom in the U.S. and Europe, but as interest rates begin to rise rapidly, banks and real estate companies may become insolvent. The commercial real estate market is in shock and transactions are not as frequent. The high prices of real estate will have to fall until rental yields...
AVB has a death cross that is approaching. This pattern still favor's a near term bounce but will likely resume its longer term downtrend once buy the dippers are exhausted. This is a trend that is not your friend.
Vici properties is showing weakening in its trend. This has been directly tied to the weakness in XLRE - real estate We believe VICI properties has much more downside. This specific Real estate play also has much property exposure to the casino type names. With many of the Casino charts like MGM, LVS looking "topheavy" this may be a correlated play that already...
Markets don't necessarily repeat, but they do tend to 'rhyme'. What do you think?
Bidding $VNQ (or $XLRE, real estate ETFs) down to $30.10. In information theory, the entropy of a random variable is the average level of "information", "surprise", or "uncertainty" inherent to the variable's possible outcomes.
XLRE $40 Our current real estate fund positioning. XLRE>VNQ
As shown, real estate sector is in correction mode. Housing prices are at crazy prices and now 30 year mortgage rates are still climbing. Today the average was reported over 6.25%. Would expect these rates to continue on the upside while housing prices moderate.
Maybe the trendline gets retested again, but I doubt it. First target 42 area (100 weekly ma) Good luck!
While everyone is bullish real estate, the chart says price is likely to turn bearish. As you can see from the chart, we just retested and rejected a long term bullish trendline, and now with that rejection, it sets up the chance for price to fall much lower from here. The first supports are in the low 40s, and if we end up breaking that, we'll likely fall to...