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Sector Winners and Losers week ending 9/3Defensive sectors led the sector list during a week where employment data kept investors guessing on the Fed's timeline for bond tapering. Real Estate (XLRE) led the list throughout the week. The sector is benefiting from low interest rates while it also remains a good hedge against inflation. The Fed continues to put full employment ahead of inflation as the priority for interest rate hikes, so the sector will continue to perform if labor recovery slows. Health Care (XLV) was the second best sector, following by Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU). The cyclical sectors ended the week lower with Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) sitting at the bottom of the sector list. The slowing labor market and missed PMI numbers this week showed some weakness in the economy.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 7/9The short week was defined mainly by Thursday's sell-off in equities as Treasury bond yields were sliding. That gave a boost to two defensive sectors, Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU), but the two sectors were already leading from Monday. The worries ended on Friday, but the two sectors remained in the lead for the week. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were the next two sectors at the top of the list, showing a mix of risk-on and risk-off sentiment throughout the week. The cyclical sectors moved from the top of the sector list on Wednesday to the bottom of the list on Thursday, back to the top of the list on Friday. Energy (XLE) was a consistent loser throughout the week until finally finding itself at the top of the list on Friday. However, the gains were not enough to move it out of the bottom position for the week.
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
22
$SPY $XLRE $SBAC If You Like REIT's You'll Love This Breakout.As bonds continue to move higher and interest rates lower, $XLRE and $REITS in general have been showing strength. $SBAC Has been on my radar for awhile and the breakout has finally happened. I believe that a position over prior resistance offers a good risk/reward ratio here and I like the stock long to the 0.786 Fib extension which happens to be just about the peak to trough decline level from the resistance to the base. Good Luck.
NASDAQ:SBACLong
by Breakout_Charts
Housing - Bubble PopIdea for Housing/REITs (VNQ): - The Housing Market will crash. I am short REITs. - Lumber rose 400% in a year during a global crisis and then dropped 50% in a month... This is not a correction, but a bubble pop. - China reining in commodity prices. They announce that they will soon release state stockpiles of metals: www.bloomberg.com - State firms ordered to curb overseas commodities exposure. - Fed continues MBS purchasing with QE, despite RRP skyrocketing. Why? The MBS and Housing bubble is critical, and it is ready to collapse. - Homebuyer sentiment drops to 10 year low: finance.yahoo.com - Homebuilder sentiment declines to reach a 10 month low (NAHB): news.yahoo.com - Housing prices being speculated such that locals are priced out of the market. Institutional investors and State-backed institutions buy up neighborhoods as they seek yield in an overheated global market. - The Credit Cycle has turned down, and the liquidity flows have been shut off. Institutions can no longer bid up their own assets. - As commodities prices crash, it will become cheaper to build a house than to buy one off the market, leading to increasing supply and decreasing demand. - When housing no longer provides yield, institutions will dump their assets onto the market and prices will crater. - MBS's and Lumber leading the crash, the REITs will soon get the hint. GLHF - DPT
Editors' picks
AMEX:VNQShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
41
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/11It was a mix of defensive sectors and growth stocks at the top of the sector list this week, while the cyclical sectors took a step back. Real Estate (XLRE) led the sector list, continuing to gain on a solid housing market, higher rents, as well as a defense against potential inflation. Health Care (XLV) also rallied this week, ending the week in second place on the sector list. Eli Lilly (LLY) helped boost the sector with news that the FDA may approve a new Alzheimer's therapy. The stock and the sector faded late in the week on the controversy over statements made by the company. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were third and fourth on the list, with steady increases throughout the week as investors became more confident in the growth trade. The cyclical stocks fell this past week. Financials (XLF) suffered from lower treasury yields, potentially impacting interest rates that drive revenue for the sector. Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) declined as more of congress pushes back on Biden's infrastructure spending proposals.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 6/4Energy (XLE) and Real Estate (XLRE) led the sector list for the week, establishing their lead early in the week. Energy got a boost from the rise in oil prices on high demand. Real Estate is gathering momentum from rising housing and rental prices while also being a great hedge against inflation. The focus on employment data released on Friday morning is clear in two pivots. There was a sharp sell-off of most sectors except Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) on Thursday ahead of the report. The two sectors are good defensive plays when investors get nervous about how the market may react to news or events. After the report was released, Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Communications (XLC) rallied on Friday. It seems the employment data was good enough to keep a positive outlook, while not so good to drive more fears of tapering by the Fed. Health Care (XLV) was the worst-performing sector for the week.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Black Swan - The Housing BubbleSpeculative Idea for MBB (Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF): - Why is there a speculative housing bubble in the middle of a crisis? - "A major catalyst of the general financial crisis of 2008 was the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007, when a rising wave of defaults on home mortgages sent the value of mortgage backed securities plunging." - "They're in trouble right now," as Colleen Denzler, an investment manager at Smith Capital Investors, which has about $350 billion in assets under management (AUM), and who previously was the global head of fixed income at Janus Henderson, told BI. She is now underweight MBS. "Bubbles get popped when things turn around either through some sort of crisis or through a change in what caused them," she said. "This could be a while, and that's how we're positioned," she added. - "Other complex debt securities whose plunging values were a catalyst for the 2008 financial crisis are rising in popularity today. The synthetic CDO, a pool of derivatives linked to various categories of debt, is among them. Pessimists fear that history may be set to repeat itself, and that cautious investors should take cover." - NY Fed Report: Total household debt rose by $85 billion to $14.64 trillion. GLHF - DPT
NASDAQ:MBBShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/14It was a mix of defensive and cyclical stocks that led the sector list this week. Only three sectors ended the week with gains, while the high growth sectors took the biggest declines. Consumer Staples (XLP) topped the list with Utilities (XLU) in fourth place. Both are defensive sectors for investors. Real Estate (XLRE) was lower in the list but still outperformed the sectors. Financials (XLF) and Materials (XLB) joined Consumer Staples as the only sectors to end the week with gains. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were at the bottom of the list. Both contain high growth companies that are likely to be impacted by inflation and potential increases in interest rates. They started to recovery on Thursday and Friday after the US Dollar and Treasury interest rates dropped.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 5/7It was the cyclical sectors that ruled the week. Energy (XLE), Materials (XLB), Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) were the top four sectors of the week. The cyclical sectors are benefiting from a pick-up in economic activity driving demand for products from building materials, infrastructure and the manufacturing of consumables. Supply has not been able to keep up with the increased demand, driving commodity prices higher. Timber, Copper, Aluminum are all skyrocketing. And demand for oil is increasing as transportation picks back up. While the Dow Jones Industrial average (DJI) and S&P 500 (SPX) hit new all-time records, there were four sectors that lost for the week. Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) fell on Monday thru Wednesday along with the Nasdaq, as investors rotated to re-opening and infrastructure stocks. Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) were the bottom two sectors. Investors did not have interest in the defensive equity plays this week. Investors remain confident in the equities market, but are playing toward value, re-opening and infrastructure.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
$PSA Attempting to Break OutHi Folks, This is a pretty simple set up here. We have a huge base on PSA going back to March 2016. The previous highs from that time are presenting textbook resistance in my opinion. I believe that PSA will break out and there's an opportunity in the setup. Here's my thesis: The XLRE has being showing relative strength to the S&P the last three months and has really come on in the last month as a leader. Not surprisingly, the XLRE just broke through it's pre-covid crash highs. PSA is a top holding in the XLRE and could follow suit and breakthrough as well. If you believe the recent strength in the XLRE can be sustained, then it's top holdings would most likely lead the way. PSA is Public Storage. They recently bought a smaller competitor EZStorage demonstrating the need to expand and showcasing the current demand for storage units. Moreover, PSA stands to benefit from the current housing market up cycle as people are moving all over the country and are storing items as needed. Anecdotally, I live in a major metro-area and a brief search of all the area PSA sites show low or now availability of all sized units. Earnings are reported tomorrow and could provide the catalyst needed to punch through resistance. If resistance is broken I think the stock can rally to about $314 in the near term. If the stock fades from it's current levels and fails to break resistance then the thesis is no good and the trade should be abandoned. Disclosure: I am long PSA. Anyway, what do you all think? NYSE:PSA AMEX:SPY AMEX:XLRE
NYSE:PSALong
by Breakout_Charts
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 4/23The S&P 500 had a slight loss for the week, but there were two sectors that soared despite the market. Real Estate (XLRE) ended the week as the top sector, advancing over 2%. Three factors helped the sector breakout and then stay on top the whole week. The economic recovery is a boon for the real estate industry as occupancy rates climb driving demand and prices higher. Interest rates remain low thanks to the Fed's continued easy money policy, keeping costs low. And in a climate of nervous investors, fearful of new lockdowns around the world, the real estate sector becomes a nice defensive play that has growth potential as well. Healthcare (XLV) was the second best sector of the week. The sector has lagged behind the S&P 500 since the beginning of the year. Positive earnings reports from UnitedHealth (UNH) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) over the past few weeks gave it the momentum needed to catch up with a 1.81% advance this week. The only other sectors that had gains for the week were Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI), both responding positively to great economic recovery news. At the bottom of the sector list were Energy (XLE) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). Energy stocks continue to underperform as oil prices have been dropping in recent weeks. Consumer Discretionary was a big part of the S&P 500 setting records the previous three weeks and was due to pause or pullback this week. Earnings reports from Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN) next week will have a big influence on the sector performance.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 3/12It was a wild week for the sectors as investors rotated in and out of Technology and Communications stocks. All sectors ended the week with gains. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was the big winner. Large stimulus checks will be delivered soon that are expected to be poured into the economy via consumer spending on both needs and wants. Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) spent Monday at the bottom of the sector list, Tuesday at the top, Wednesday at the bottom, Thursday at the top, and Friday at the bottom. In the end, the two sectors landed just behind the SPX in performance, but did have gains for the day. Financials (XLF) was also one to watch. It flipped back and forth as investors followed closely what was happening in the bond markets. The increase in yields could be a boon for Financials. The increased yields would have the opposite impact on big technology and communications companies and smaller growth companies. As yields went back and forth, so did the performance of these sectors. Energy (XLE) ended the week as the worst sector. Although it had a big gain on Wednesday, it wasn't enough to cover the losses on Monday and Tuesday. Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE) did not have any big days, but were on a steady rise throughout the week. They ended the week in 2nd and 3rd place on the list. The two sectors are often used as defensive plays.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 1/29Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) are the top sectors for the week. Ouch! None of the sectors ended the week with gains as the S&P 500 pulled back -3.31%. Utilities led as the market opened on Monday morning. Communications (XLC) took a very brief lead on Tuesday, but the Real Estate took the top spot. Consumer Staples (XLP) attempted to take the lead on Wednesday, but couldn't hold the lead and ended in third place. Energy (XLE) was the worst performing sector of the week. The chart clearly shows the wild ride for the sectors on the last three days of the week. Wednesday had all sectors losing for the day. On Thursday, all sectors advanced. On Friday all sectors declined again. The relatively smooth ride for Real Estate, Utilities and Consumer Staples represents their position as defense moves for investors. All three sectors represent parts of the economy that must continue, even if other parts are recovering slowly or even failing.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 1/22Communications (XLC) led the week with a big +5.44% gain, but only after a big pullback the week prior. The sector was led by Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) with +9.55% and +9.21% gains respectively. Those two companies make up 44% of the ETF. Netflix (NFLX) also had a huge gain of +13.49% but only represents 5% of the ETF. Technology (XLK) finished the week in second place, also with the mega-caps, Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) contributing the most to the gains. Financials (XLF) continued to underperform as more financial institutions reported earnings and disappointed investors. Energy (XLE) was the worst performing sector of the week. There is probably some influence from the new administration policies. However, the more immediate impact was from surprise surplus in oil supplies, signaling much lower demand for oil than anticipated. The only significant pivots during the week were on Wednesday, January 20th which was inauguration day. That day saw a spike in Communications, Technology and Real Estate (XLRE). The pivot for Communications and Technology were likely reinvestment into mega-caps that didn't seem to be in the crosshairs of any new policies, alleviating some fears of policies that would hurt big tech. The Real Estate pivot was driven by the additional assistance for renters proposed in the new stimulus package. The stimulus approved in December only covered the estimated amount of back rent owed, but the new stimulus package would extend rental assistance into the future.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 1/15The sectors had a wild race this week with the backdrop of a up and down market with several rotations between small caps, mid caps and large caps. Energy (XLE) would ultimately be the winner, supported by production cuts in Saudi Arabia, higher than expected demand for oil, and some positive news from OPEC. There was a significant pullback on Friday after SEC announced an investigation into Exxon Mobile (XOM) which makes up 23% of the XLE ETF. Financials (XLF) led must of the week as investors expect higher treasury yields boost performance for big banks. That turned upside down on Friday when Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) disappointed on revenue despite beating expectations on earnings. It was Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) that started to climb on Tuesday and were top performers on Friday. Those two sectors are defensive plays for equity investors. Both are expected to suffer less from market pullbacks. Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) were also doing well earlier in the week, but pulled back on Friday. It could be that the nearly $2 trillion of stimulus promised by President-elect Biden is seen as a delay to the expected investments in infrastructure. Just a theory. Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) were at the bottom. The big tech mega-caps went up and down in price all week as money moved in and out of the segment. Communications, which includes companies like Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) suffered the most as investors fear negative impact of recent actions related to Donald Trump.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
5
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 1/8Energy (XLE) finds itself back at the top of the sector list for the first week of 2021. It's not something you might expect as the blue wave hit US politics, which doesn't bode well for traditional energy stocks. However, crude oil is over $50 a barrel for the first time since April after Saudi Arabia surprisingly cut output. The blue wave did have some expected impact this week. After the Georgia run-off results showed Democrats would take control of the senate, US Treasury Bond yields took off as investors expect more stimulus that would further impact the US Dollar. That caused Financials (XLF), especially big banks, to have big gains on Wednesday and Thursday. Materials (XLB) benefited from the blue wave news, as we can expect big investments in US infrastructure with the new administration. Industrials (XLI) also had a boost on Wednesday, with some benefit from infrastructure spend, but also several segments like airlines likely to benefit from further stimulus. However, Industrials did not continue the rise and ended the week behind the S&P 500. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) got a boost on Friday, perhaps from higher than expected Consumer credit numbers on top of the promise of new stimulus. Quite a few people had a good Christmas it seems. At the bottom of the list is Real Estate (XLRE) which is likely to suffer in the bottom line from the higher interest rates. Technology (XLK) had the opposite reaction to the blue wave on Wednesday but regained from losses on Thursday and Friday to end the week just behind Industrials. Also notable is Utilities (XLU) which lost for the week, but had gains on Friday as a defensive move heading into a likely emotion filled weekend for the United States.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers for 1/5 and 1/6I normally publish this chart on weekly basis as part of my Week in Review work but I thought it was interesting to look at it today, in the context of the Georgia run-off election results. There is also the turmoil in DC, but that did not seem to impact the sector leaders list (the afternoon dip impacted all equally). Energy (XLE) is leading over the two days, although was in third place for Wednesday. This position is not related to politics, but rather that crude oil prices moved past $50 for the first time since February. A much smaller part of Energy is the solar stocks which will benefit greatly from a Democratic controlled congress and presidency. However, the solar stocks make up a small part of XLE and are not the reason for the sector performance. Materials (XLB) is the next sector on the list. Materials sector will benefit greatly from expected spend on infrastructure in the US. Financials (XLF) was the winner on Wednesday, as yields on treasury bonds rose, bringing higher interest rates that will benefit banks. Industrials (XLI) got a boost from both the outlook for infrastructure spend, but also the promise of more stimulus that would easily pass through congress and signed by the president. The sectors that did not fair well with the news included Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK) which both include "big tech" names that are likely to take a hit from higher bond yields. Similarly Real Estate (XLRE) will incur higher costs due to the higher interest rates.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
2