XLRE
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 11/27Energy (XLE) put in a third week of huge gains and topped the other sectors. The sector is up over 40% in the last three weeks. It did pull back a bit on Wed and Fri.
Financials (XLF) also sticks out as a winner for the week, far above the rest of the sectors.
The worst performing sectors were Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU). Utilities briefly emerged as a leader for Wednesday afternoon as investors parked money in the safe haven sector for the holiday.
Technology (XLK) underperformed the index for a third week.
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/2It was a back and forth race for the SPDR ETFs this past week. In the end, Real Estate (XLRE) was the winner.
Utilities (XLU) had a week of steady growth but could quite beat out Real Estate.
Technology (XLK) did well earlier in the week but sold off at the end on bad news.
Energy (XLE) had relatively big gains on Friday, but overall still a loser for the week.
!XLU Long Entry: 13:26:00 (UTC) Thu Jul 30, 2020Today's GDP number has confirmed cyclical inflation, with a devalued dollar (not a longterm, more like 5-10 months) of inflation. For those that don't understand how inflationary economic progress without real (nominal) GDP works, it's bad for everyone except the wall-street facilitating primary dealers and broker dealers. It's that easy. Even though good are going up for the average family, do you think that wall street speculators care?
EPISODE 9/11: US REAL ESTATE:WAVE VARIATIONS& INDICATOR TA(XLRE)Episode 9/11 : US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 31st of July 2019
Brief Explanation of the chart ( since everything is labelled on the chart ): (1 minute read)
First and foremost : The XLRE Index was formed very recently(2016), so obviously due to the lack of data this analysis should be seen at most as informative . Now, let's break down the chart :
Weekly XLRE chart labelled with 2 large structural supports as blue( 30$ ) & purple( 34-35$ ) rectangles. Furthermore, the wave/cycle variation can be broken down to 3 most probably variations :
Variation #1 ( Purple ): If the economy continues to be in a great state. US-China deal goes through and Trump wins 2020. Most bullish Scenario.
Variation #2 ( RED ): Trump wins 2020, but the global economy slows down/Deal takes too long to be completed. Still a bullish scenario either way.
Variation #3 ( Blue ): Bearish scenario . Dems win 2020, in which case we will have a recession in the nearby future, thereafter.
This is it. I do not think there's anything more to be said. I always let my charts speak the words that I am not willing to put the effort to say/write.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research.
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Check my Previous episodes on the US Sectors :
EPISODE 8 : US CONSUMER STAPLES (XLP)
EPISODE 7 : US CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ( XLY )
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
XLRE: Sell opportunity on recurring pattern.The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE) reached a new All Time High today extending the aggressive bullish run since the start of the year. The candle pattern is very similar to the February - August 2016 when it made a peak after a +28.60% rise and declined below the MA200 with a first stop at -9%. The current price action appears to be following this pattern and is close to completing both the +28.60% rise parameter and the 175 day duration parameter. We are taking a short aiming at repeating the -9% initial decline (34.50) towards the MA200.
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Why The Yield Curve Matters To Utilities & Other Bond ProxiesThis chart of the U.S. 10s/2s curve and the SPDR S&P Utilities Sector ETF (XLU) is interesting. A few days ago, I was reading a blurb by a well-known outlet about utilities getting "smoked" during the Q4 equity route. Like above, performance is relative to time frame. Additionally, you have to have a deeper understanding about what XLU is and what it can do.
It's not enough to just assume utilities as "defensive" thus it protects you from a broad equity sell-0ff. This also coincides with some questions I get from subscribers: why advocate holding XLU and TLT?
Yes, XLU is a bond proxy but it is not a bond. Its underlying is composed of equities. The TLT is composed of U.S. 7-10 year treasuries.
They both perform well under low interest rate environments when yields trend lower. However, keep in mind that the XLU is still equity-based and won't protect you fully.
Notice, XLU didn't blink until the 10s/2s began to steepen. It's been gung-ho since the curve flattened out. And if we went back through periods were the curve began to steepen, it effected other bond proxies much more dramatically like REITs.
Flattening of the curve isn't the issue unless you're financials. It's the massive steepening caused by the Fed cutting interest rates that kill markets.
REIT's & Real Estate Breaking Dec 24th UptrendREIT's are looking like the first sector to definitively break the big uptrend since December 24th.
Big move here breaking out of 2 month wedge to the downside.
All momentum indicators are also pointing downward (macd, stochastic) and we've had demark exhaustion signals as well. Easy short entry here.
General Market OverviewThis video is the first of many, and I discuss the behaviors of the sectors and potential markets that are poised to trend in the near future. The "freshest" sectors quietly trying to start a new trend are the Industrial and Consumer Discretionary Sectors. The sectors (along with their industries) I think should be on every trend follower's radar are:
XLF - Financials Sector (including some real estate stocks): setting up to break out of its 5 month range; main movers are the bank industry (not the Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley kind of banks)
XLI - Industrials Sector: breaking out today with the possible trend beginning here in an unpopular sector; main movers are the service industries
XLK - Technology Sector: obvious uptrend that should be followed with caution, but is getting ready to continue; main movers are the software and IT services & consulting industries
XLP - Consumer Staples Sector: in early stages on uptrend with possible correction or continuation in the near future; moved by multiple industries
XLRE - Real Estate Sector: also in the early stages of possible uptrend; main movers of sub-sector have been REITs
XLU - Utilities Sector: also in the early stages of possible uptrend; main movers are electric utilities industry
XLV - Health Care Sector: uptrend already in motion with test of all-time highs today, with great potential for trend continuation; main movers are medical equipment and managed health care industries
XLY - Consumer Discretionary Sector: breaking out today with the possible trend beginning here in a sector where the media does not favor much; main movers are the apparel, discount, footwear and auto industries (mostly retail)
I am going to do more videos on how I diversify my portfolio, and how to create such a portfolio according to what is moving in the whole market so it would be great to get feedback from this video that I can include in those, and also ideas on material you would like to see more of!
Thanks, enjoy.
Technically Speaking, Real Estate Could Move UpThe SPDR fund tracking the Real Estate Sector (XLRE) has been in a clearly defined upward trend since November 2016. As of the close on May 12, this fund is at the bottom of the cycle which is near a strongly established support. The projected future movements are highlighted below.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 41.0131. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading has the fund relatively neutral although it recently came down from near the overbought level The RSI is currently at a similar level where all the previous bottoms have occurred. This is the first indicator the fund should begin moving up.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 2.6338. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, however, it is also near the same level where the previous bottoms in this cycle have been established. The TSI has also been trending up in a bullish wedge pattern. With the indicator around the same support level, this is the second indicator the fund should begin moving up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8623 and the negative is at 1.1873. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the negative indicator is slowly moving upward which is bearish for the fund. At the same time, the positive indicator has begun to move upward. When the negative indicator finally does reverse downward and the positive makes more strident gains, the fund should be in its upward cycle.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 39.1887 and D value is 41.1774. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. This indicator is technically in the middle of the oscillation possibilities at the moment. The next 2-5 trading days are pertinent to determine if the actual long-term movement is to the upside.
I have broken down the last three times the fund was near its current point in the trend channel. All three of them resulted in a minimal gain of 3.92% in a minimum of 12 trading days. My current projected movement is on the conservative side, however, the stop-loss will be any movement below 31.24. Movement to this level breaks outside the support level and could lead to major downward movement for the fund.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside, although definitive upward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 3% over the next 22 trading days if not sooner.
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Long Term Sector RotationSPX vs Major Sectors. I added IBB to cover Biotech.
Please comment. My understanding at this point is to stay in sectors which have good fundamentals and have been relative laggards. The 3 bottom ones at this point seem to be Financials, Technology and XLU / XLP.
Since utilities is a risk-averse sector, so in a pro-growth environment I may want to go with the other 3. XLB is like the coyote / fox from Mickey mouse that runs a few meters off the cliff thinking its still running on solid ground before realizing that there's nothing below it and then falls like a rock. Great if you can time it right.