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Utilities vs. Uranium: Is the Nuclear Sector Gaining Momentum?Introduction: Utilities AMEX:XLU have demonstrated strong performance over the past year, often signaling a "risk-off" market environment where investors seek safety. However, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on market dynamics may be challenging this traditional narrative. Despite the evolving landscape, caution is warranted against assuming that "this time is different." A new factor to watch is the growing influence of the nuclear sector, particularly uranium stocks AMEX:URA . Analysis: Risk-Off Sentiment vs. New Trends: While utilities' strong performance typically signals a defensive market stance, the increasing focus on nuclear energy is drawing investor interest toward uranium stocks. The shift reflects a potential change in how market participants view traditional safe havens. URA-to-XLU Ratio: The upward trend in the URA-to-XLU ratio over recent years indicates a growing preference for uranium stocks over traditional utilities. Even after a significant selloff earlier this year, the ratio formed a higher low, signaling resilience and maintaining its long-term uptrend. Momentum Shift: The key focus now is whether this ratio can make a new high. If the URA-to-XLU ratio breaks above its previous peak, it would suggest strengthening momentum in the nuclear sector, indicating that this trend could have staying power and possibly reflect a shift in market preferences. Conclusion: As the market balances between traditional risk-off sectors like utilities and emerging trends in nuclear energy, the URA-to-XLU ratio serves as a critical indicator of shifting investor sentiment. A new high in this ratio would suggest that the nuclear sector's momentum is strengthening, with uranium stocks potentially leading the way. Do you believe this trend will continue? Share your insights below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the URA-to-XLU ratio, the higher low formation, and potential breakout targets) Tags: #Utilities #Uranium #NuclearEnergy #XLU #URA #MarketTrends #TechnicalAnalysis
AMEX:URA
by Richtv_official
1
XLU approaches top of its trading rangeXLU is showing signs that its recent rally maybe coming to close and start selling off for a period of time XLU is currently one of the top sector ETFs for defensive move Its turn around over the past year shows the rotational shift away from risk to defensive Currently its recent rally is looking to come to an end. Best to wait before making anymore purchases of XLU XLU is running hot right now and is due for a pullback. Best to wait on the sidelines until after its coming sell off before adding to any positions
AMEX:XLU
by ratchet-mint
SPY recent rally failed to make new highsLooking back at the last two major rallies we see that the latest one has not broken above to new highs. Raises concerns of longer term rallies less likely to happen SPY is forming double top reversal pattern Longer term future rallies called into question More defensive sectors are experiencing rallies over the past year (XLU for example) Defensive sector long term rallies shows rotational shift from risk assets (tech) to safer assets (utilities, healthcare, gold) Seeing signs of late cycle investing 2025 could be a rough year for SPY and especially tech Bullish purchases should be done with caution
AMEX:SPYShort
by ratchet-mint
Opening (IRA): XLU October 18th 71 Monied Covered Call... for a 70.09 debit. Comments: For lack of something better to do, looking to grab the Sept divvy if I can. Selling the -73 delta call against long stock to emulate a ~25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call. This isn't the greatest entry given price action, but am willing to add should the market afford me an opportunity to do so at strikes better than the 71 ... . The last distribution was .55/share; $55/one lot. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 70.09 Max Profit: .91 ($91) (excluding dividends); 1.46 (including divvies, assuming a .55/share distribution) ROC at Max: 1.30% 50% Max: .46; 1.01 (including divvies) ROC at 50% Max: .65% (1.44% including divvies)
AMEX:XLULong
by NaughtyPines
US Real Estate Slowdown Casts a Long ShadowLast week, U.S. housing starts, a key economic measure of new residential construction, dropped to their lowest level since 2020, with single-family housing starts hitting a 16-month low. Meanwhile, overall housing inventory has climbed to its highest point since 2020, and new housing inventory has reached levels not seen since 2008. Despite a moderating mortgage rate, high prices continue to deter buyers, failing to stimulate housing sales. Combined with the ongoing slowdown in commercial real estate, the sector may face prolonged challenges. While the Real Estate Select Sector could see short-term gains from declining interest rates, a significant slowdown in the sector may dampen these benefits. A long position in Utilities Select Sector Index futures (XAU) to capitalize on lower rates, paired with a short position in Real Estate Select Sector Index futures (XLR) to hedge the real estate downturn, offers a balanced approach against XLR's short-term gains. US HOUSING STARTS TUMBLE, INVENTORY SURGES U.S. housing starts fell to 1.238 million as of July 29, a 6.8% decline from the previous week and well below analyst expectations of 1.340 million. Single-family housing starts dropped by 14.1% to 851,000, marking a sixteen-month low. Although Hurricane Beryl likely contributed to this sharp decline, the real estate sector faces a more significant, underlying challenge. The U.S. housing market is grappling with a surge in inventory. According to Realtor.com, overall housing inventory stands at 884,000, the highest level since 2020. Similarly, data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows inventories at 1.32 million, also the highest since 2020. The situation is even more concerning for new housing inventory, which has reached its highest level since 2008. At July's sales pace, it would take 9.3 months to clear the backlog of new homes. Notably, the slowdown in housing starts has intensified, even as mortgage rates have moderated from their peak in May. Despite a 10% decline in mortgage rates since early May, housing starts have fallen by 8%, indicating that easing rates are not driving a meaningful rebound in housing sales. In addition to the struggles in the residential real estate market, the commercial real estate market continues to struggle with elevated vacancies and mark-downs. Last Month, Deutsche Bank stated that the commercial real estate market would be further pressured during H2 2024 as the recovery they had anticipated was not materializing. INTEREST RATE CUT WILL PROVIDE SHORT-TERM BOOST Despite the challenges facing the real estate sector, upcoming interest rate cuts are expected to provide a boost through further declines in mortgage rates. However, this near-term support may not be enough to offset a potentially prolonged downturn. Rising inventory levels are not being matched by significant price reductions, and with a weakening labor market, homebuyers' purchasing power is likely to remain constrained. The real estate sector is not the only beneficiary of lower rates. As noted by Mint Finance in a previous analysis, the utilities sector also stands to gain from declining rates. Therefore, hedging a short position in Real Estate Select Sector Index futures (XAR) with a long position in Utilities Select Sector Index futures (XAU) mitigates downside risk. The XAU/XAR spread has outperformed an outright short in XAR as well as the SPX/XAR spread during rate cut driven rallies in the XAR this year and remained resilient during the recent rally in XAR. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The U.S. real estate sector is burdened by a surplus of inventory, as home buying remains sluggish despite moderating mortgage rates. High prices, combined with financial strain in a weakening labor market, are likely to keep sales low for the foreseeable future. Additionally, ongoing challenges in commercial real estate add to the sector's difficulties. Despite this negative outlook, the real estate sector may still see some benefit from upcoming interest rate cuts. Historically, the spread between Utilities Select Sector Index futures (XAU) and Real Estate Select Sector Index futures (XAR) has shown resilience during such periods, offering an improved reward/risk profile. CME Select Sector Futures serve as a capital efficient instrument to implement spread trades between different sectors. A position consisting of short 3 x E-mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures (XARU2024) and long 2 x E-mini Utilities Select Sector Futures (XAUU2024) balances notional values on both legs. CME provides a 60% margin offset for this trade, reducing the margin requirements to USD 11,940 as of 19/Aug. The hypothetical trade setup described below offers a reward/risk ratio of 1.4x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:XAU1!Long
by mintdotfinance
AWK: Invest In Companies You Literally Cannot Live WithoutAmerican Water Works Co (AWK) Trade Idea. American Water Works is the largest investor-owned us water and wastewater utility, serving approximately 3.5 million customers in 16 states. It provides water and wastewater services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and operates predominantly in regulated markets. The company's nonregulated business is water services for military bases, which operates under long-term contracts with regulated-like returns. Narrow moat, standard allocation, and low FV uncertainty. Valuations have come back down to earth. Morningstar displays a four-star price-to-fair-value. The business cycle is late-stage, and playing defense makes sense. Technicals are interesting. Risks include sequential dilutions until 2027. A lack of growth could also be a disappointment for some investors with unrealistic expectations. Greenblue quant report also displays a low score of 957. But relative to the utilities sector, AWK is the 7th best.
NYSE:AWKLong
by RHTrading
Stock Market Analysis - Bullish & Bearish Sectors Heavy selling observed across the S&P500: Financials & Real Estate hit hard. S&P500 hitting the 50 day MA...technical daily support. Some breakout sectors are seeing there first pullback in a bullish trend. The sectors that have had breakouts will likely see dip buyers. Health Care & Utilities are into some interesting support levels. This is where bulls step in. Megacap Tech still saw some flight to safety money! Lets see if this holds.
TVC:US10Y
by Trading-Capital
XLU Potential Breakout $XLUXLU Potential Breakout Analysis AMEX:XLU is indicating a potential breakout based on technical analysis, suggesting an opportune moment to consider exploring the utilities sector. Why Utilities Sector? The utilities sector is recognized for its defensive characteristics and stable performance, making it an appealing choice for investors seeking a haven during market volatility. Companies in this sector typically provide essential services such as electricity, water, and gas, which are in constant demand regardless of economic conditions. Noteworthy Companies in the Utilities Sector: NextEra Energy ( NYSE:NEE ): A leading clean energy company focusing on renewable power generation, transmission, and distribution. NextEra Energy's commitment to sustainability and innovation positions it as a key player in the utilities industry. Duke Energy ( NYSE:DUK ): An electric power holding company serving millions of customers across several states. Duke Energy's established presence in the utility sector and ongoing investments in infrastructure make it a reliable choice for investors. American Electric Power ( NASDAQ:AEP ): One of the largest electric utility companies in the United States, providing electricity to millions of customers in various states. With a strong emphasis on modernizing its grid and embracing renewable energy sources, American Electric Power is set for long-term growth. Exploring investments in these companies within the utilities sector could offer a combination of stability and potential upside. Stay tuned to AMEX:XLU for further signals of a breakout to seize the opportunity effectively.
AMEX:XLULong
by holacarlosmartinez
Opening (IRA): XLU April 19th 62 Covered Call... for a 60.31 debit. Comments: For lack of something better to do, looking to grab the March dividend here, which should be in the vicinity of .60/share. The top 5, options liquid dividend-yielding ETF's are: EWZ (10.90%) (paid twice a year in June and December); EFA (5.27%) (paid twice a year in June and December); XLE (3.78%) (paid in March, June, September, December); XLU (3.16%) (paid in March, June, September, December); EEM (3.10%) (paid in June and December); EWW (3.08%) (paid in June and December). Will look to roll out the short call on test of my break even, but will otherwise leave it mostly alone until the dividend drops into my account, which should occur sometime in the third week of March.
AMEX:XLULong
by NaughtyPines
XLU Utilities making a clear statement to Sellers.Utilities (XLU) almost hit this month the Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding for exactly 21 years (since October 2002) and immediately responded with a strong rebound that has already turned the 1M candle green. All this price action taking place in less than 2 weeks, which indicates considerable market movement. Amidst of all that, it broke below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the COVID crash (March 2020). If it manages to close the month above it, it will be a strong statement towards all direction that the sector considers this level a Support and possibly the end of the Inflation Crisis. Watch closely and you will see that this and the COVID crises are connected with a Higher Highs trend-line, similar to how the DotCom and Housing crises where in the 2000s. Technically this is a straight Higher Highs trend-line that connects all Highs and places the last 21 years of market into a Mega Rising Wedge pattern. The 1M RSI is on a Lower Lows trend-line, which indicates a natural deceleration of the trend but as long as it holds, it sustains it. And right now it is exactly on that trend-line. Do you think this can be a strong message to sellers? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:XLU
by TradingShot
Crash Incoming finally?Stock Market Crash begins this week?? Looking at Utilities.... they are perched on the same trendline before they crashed in 2002 and 2008... Reason it could start tomorrow after hours.... 1. Crashes usually happen when your oversold... We are right now 2. Bonds are in position for a crash 3. DXY is ready to Rocket 4. Nvidia earnings after hours tomorrow..... the company that created this massive bear market rally... Nvidia is the AI king... And as the AI king they provided crazy guidance last earnings which created this massive bull market limited to tech.... No company has every had earning guidance for the next quarter with such a massive jump... Can they do it...sure.. they are selling AI chips for 30K a piece... The problem is supplies..... I'm not sure they were able to deliver the crazy outlook they promoted due to supply constraints plus I think AI mania is dying down.... Basically if they don't make earnings .... I believe that will be the catalyst for Nvidia stock to crash and start bringing the market down with it.... Even if they somehow make earnings if their guidance isn't shooting for the moon still that could kill the mania.... I thought the market would crash till AI saved it... So now I'm wondering if AI could be the catalyst that kills the market. It makes perfect sense... Most everyone is no longer short.... I see no reason for this market to keep going up from here.... it needs a catalyst to knock it down... All the analyst and most people think Nvidia will kill earnings... The market loves to catch people offsides...this would be the perfect moment. 5. JPowel Friday 6. Mercury goes into retrograde tomorrow 8-23-2023 (bad for technology)
AMEX:XLUShort
by TheUniverse618
1
NEE UpdateNYSE:NEE reports this week. We can see some relatively dramatic price movements after earnings releases over the past couple of years. NEE and NEP missed on revenue last quarter, but were within EPS estimates. There is an underlying concern for the fallout from their campaign donation violation and sustained higher rates are not good for their growth model. However, they operate in a growing region and continue to have conviction to continue their 4 year 9% earnings growth plan. 12 month price projections range from HKEX:82 -95, with an average of $89. Price is a bit lower in its upward channel and completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern earlier in the month. These have high probability of confirming reversal of a downtrend. I expect that we'll see a little resistance at the 200SMA before the uptrend sustains. On the daily chart you can see where I've planned to manage profits from my last entries in the $74-75 range.
NYSE:NEELong
by Ben_1148x2
ROTATION FROM 'GROWTH' TO 'DEFENSIVE' OVER LAST 10 DAYSCHART DISPLAYS LAST 30 DAYS Utilities ($XLU) outperforming the broader market as represented by ($SPY) and growth oriented, tech based, sub-sector ($XLK) over the last 30 days. This has a correlation with an increased 'potential' for instances of heightened, near term (2 to 4 weeks) market volatility. During the recent selloff we can see that the 'bids' did not push the broader market as represented by ($SPY) or the S&P 500 tech sector ($XLK) back over its pre-selloff top. On the other hand, the market did buy the utilities (XLU) back up over its respective, pre-selloff top. (see yellow horizontal lines) So utilities stay bid while tech and the broader market begin to falter. In my opinion this is what a rotation out of 'growth' ($XLK) from the last 6 weeks and into 'defensives'($XLU) looks like from a price structure perspective. I would interpret this as an expression of 'risk off' market sentiment going into 2023. (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE)
AMEX:XLK
by The_Firewalker