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Sector Winners and Losers week ending 1/15The sectors had a wild race this week with the backdrop of a up and down market with several rotations between small caps, mid caps and large caps. Energy (XLE) would ultimately be the winner, supported by production cuts in Saudi Arabia, higher than expected demand for oil, and some positive news from OPEC. There was a significant pullback on Friday after SEC announced an investigation into Exxon Mobile (XOM) which makes up 23% of the XLE ETF. Financials (XLF) led must of the week as investors expect higher treasury yields boost performance for big banks. That turned upside down on Friday when Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) disappointed on revenue despite beating expectations on earnings. It was Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) that started to climb on Tuesday and were top performers on Friday. Those two sectors are defensive plays for equity investors. Both are expected to suffer less from market pullbacks. Materials (XLB) and Industrials (XLI) were also doing well earlier in the week, but pulled back on Friday. It could be that the nearly $2 trillion of stimulus promised by President-elect Biden is seen as a delay to the expected investments in infrastructure. Just a theory. Technology (XLK) and Communications (XLC) were at the bottom. The big tech mega-caps went up and down in price all week as money moved in and out of the segment. Communications, which includes companies like Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) suffered the most as investors fear negative impact of recent actions related to Donald Trump.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
5
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 1/8Energy (XLE) finds itself back at the top of the sector list for the first week of 2021. It's not something you might expect as the blue wave hit US politics, which doesn't bode well for traditional energy stocks. However, crude oil is over $50 a barrel for the first time since April after Saudi Arabia surprisingly cut output. The blue wave did have some expected impact this week. After the Georgia run-off results showed Democrats would take control of the senate, US Treasury Bond yields took off as investors expect more stimulus that would further impact the US Dollar. That caused Financials (XLF), especially big banks, to have big gains on Wednesday and Thursday. Materials (XLB) benefited from the blue wave news, as we can expect big investments in US infrastructure with the new administration. Industrials (XLI) also had a boost on Wednesday, with some benefit from infrastructure spend, but also several segments like airlines likely to benefit from further stimulus. However, Industrials did not continue the rise and ended the week behind the S&P 500. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) got a boost on Friday, perhaps from higher than expected Consumer credit numbers on top of the promise of new stimulus. Quite a few people had a good Christmas it seems. At the bottom of the list is Real Estate (XLRE) which is likely to suffer in the bottom line from the higher interest rates. Technology (XLK) had the opposite reaction to the blue wave on Wednesday but regained from losses on Thursday and Friday to end the week just behind Industrials. Also notable is Utilities (XLU) which lost for the week, but had gains on Friday as a defensive move heading into a likely emotion filled weekend for the United States.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 12/31Communications (XLC) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) spent about half the week each at the top of the sector list. But it was Utilities (XLU) that would rise at the end of the week as the winner. No doubt a defensive play going into the long weekend and a turn of the clock to a new year. Energy (XLE) had a very short-lived time at that top on Monday morning, but ended the week as the worst performing sector. Energy was the only sector to end the week with a loss.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
4
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 12/11Despite starting the week in last place, Energy (XLE) rose to the top of the sector list starting from Tuesday as the first vaccine doses were made available in the UK. That positive vaccine news boosted the sector that is likely to benefit from the increased activity in travel and leisure sectors. Communications (XLC) led at the beginning of the week, but could not keep up with Energy and finished the week in second. Utilities (XLU) also had moments of leadership on Monday and Tuesday. The sector is a defensive play in equities and an alternative to moving money into other safe havens such as bonds. Real Estate (XLRE) was the worst performing sector for the week. Technology (XLK) that heavily impacts market performance, underperformed the S&P 500 this week.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
3
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 12/4Energy ( XLE ) is now in its fourth week of leading the sectors list. It didn't look that way at the beginning of the week when it sold off off sharply amongst disagreements between OPEC members on future oil production. It rose back to the lead as those talks began getting better on Wednesday and OPEC finally had agreement on Friday. Technology ( XLK ) and Health Services ( XLV ) nearly tied for second. They shared the lead on Tuesday. Health Services had a huge boost after the UK announced approval of the Pfizer vaccine. Both Health Services and Technology didn't move much after the progress on Tuesday, but it was enough to keep them in position for a solid tie 2nd place ending. Communications ( XLC ) led for two days, before being overtaken by the top three and ending the week in fourth place. Utilities ( XLU ) was the loser of the week. The defensive play wasn't needed by investors who seemed optimistic about vaccines, stimulus talks and oil agreements. That was enough optimism to ignore the unemployment data signaling trouble for the economy.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 11/27Energy (XLE) put in a third week of huge gains and topped the other sectors. The sector is up over 40% in the last three weeks. It did pull back a bit on Wed and Fri. Financials (XLF) also sticks out as a winner for the week, far above the rest of the sectors. The worst performing sectors were Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU). Utilities briefly emerged as a leader for Wednesday afternoon as investors parked money in the safe haven sector for the holiday. Technology (XLK) underperformed the index for a third week.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 11/20Energy (XLE) was the big winner of the week for the second week in a row. Additional positive vaccine news signaled the possibility of several sectors recovering and driving demand for oil and gas. After a poor performance last week, Technology (XLK) followed closely the performance of the S&P 500 index. Utilities (XLU) performed the worst this week, although it was the best performing sector during Friday trading. Health Care (XLV) also did not have a great week, spending much of the week as the worst sector until the honor was passed to Utilities.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Nasdaq, What happened in October?Note: You can click the Yellow markers in the chart and read the Daily Updates for that day. 2) President Tests Positive for COVID, this announcement comes afterhours sending futures to the negative. Eventually he is checked into the hospital for close monitoring. 5) Just a few days after the COVID announcement, the president returns to the whitehouse touting the effectiveness of the drugs used to combat the virus. 6) After pushing for stimulus agreements from the hospital, the President abruptly declares they would no longer seek a stimulus agreement until after the election. This reverses an otherwise positive day for the market. 8) Some positive messages from the President and congress renew hopes for stimulus. This back-and-forth news on the stimulus becomes a hallmark for the month. 12) Although a positive day for the market, this is the pivot day, so it’s worth taking a look at some key signals from the day. Positive +Huge gain on increased volume. +IBD Follow-thru Day for Nasdaq. +All my daily update trend lines are on upward slope. Negative -ADVQ/DECLQ is downward trend last two days. -T-Bond Yield Spreads peaked 10/5, trended down. -Put/Call Ratio back near 0.60. Interesting * This is also pivot day where Biden/Trump polling starts to edge back to Trump. * From this point XLK moves from the 2nd best sector (behind XLU) in the month to worst by end of month. * XLU remains relatively strong thru October. 13) A sideways, inside day with poor closing range. 14) Still trading inside Monday’s range, but down on lower volume. FSLY surprise guidance announcement after hours tanks the stock price by 30%. 16) 4 out of 5 of my trend lines in my daily updates show a negative expectation 19) All sectors are negative with XLU performing best 20) From this point, daily volume shrinks except two big sell-off days. SNAP is up 30% after hours following earnings beat. 21) Growth favorites (PTON, DDOG, FVRR) are pivoting downward. 23) The week ended with a character change, two days of high closing range, lifting hopes for Monday. 26) Hopes are dashed with weekend news. Pandemic reaching new heights in Europe, and SAP revises guidance down impacting many Enterprise software stocks. This is the first close below 21d EMA since September. 27) Index is up, but there are more decliners than advancers. Growth stocks rotating winners/losers, as if investors are searching for strength. 28) Mega-caps (all companies above 200B) lose on the day. All sectors down. Ouch. 29) AMZN, AAPL, FB, SHOP offer positive earnings, but sell-off after hours as new lockdowns in Europe are announced overnight. 30) Ouch. Ouch. So here are some broader observations as we close the month of October: A) First the facts. -2.29% loss on the month (not as bad as September). The monthly candle has a tall upper wick, 33% red lower body and an 8% closing range. B) The VIX went past the highpoint in September and reached the highest point since June. C) XLU (Utilities ETF from S&P500) was defying gravity, holding up better compared to most sectors as well as the Nasdaq. However, this past week it has come down with the rest of the market. D) XLE (Energy ETF from S&P500) propped up the market 3 times after oil announcements only to deflate again the following days. E) The 21d EMA is still above the 50d MA for the Nasdaq. That 21d EMA is below the 50d MA for the other major indexes. It is also trending to go below on the Nasdaq in the first week of November.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/30It was a long painful week for all the sectors with the overall S&P 500 index losing -5.64%, worst since March of this year. Utilities (XLU) topped the list of sectors "only" losing -3.66% and remained as the safe place for investors to go to stay into equities instead of the alternatives. There were certainly days that each sector had to shine, but as far as the week-to-date performance, there was not a lot of back and forth as the days progressed in the weekly list of sector winners/losers. Most sectors beat the overall S&P 500 index. The exception is Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Industrials (XLI). Consumer Discretionary just barely beat out Industrials to be the week's loser at a -6.55% loss.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/23This week it was all about Communication Services (XLC) with the positive earnings beat from Snap (SNAP) driving growth in many of the social platform company stock prices. Utilities (XLU) continues to be a safe bet for investors as a sector that is consistently performing well over the past few weeks. Financials (XLF) also had a great week as bond yields are increasing which is usually a good sign for performance of banking stocks. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) started the week on top but backed off a bit before coming back with some good gains on Friday. Energy (XLE) had a huge Thursday that put it at the top of the the sectors, but it could not hold the lead, backing off a bit on Friday. It's not often that we find Technology (XLK) at the bottom of the list for weekly sector performance. Keep an eye on it as many technology companies will have earnings in the next two weeks.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Nasdaq Market Update for 10/16Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (31d), 9/24 bottom (17d), 10/12 (5d), and today 10/16 (1 day). The Nasdaq index action today gave us a great summary of the entire week. An amazing start, and a very disappointing end. Just as Monday was an amazing start to the week, today's morning saw gains of over 1% only to disappoint with -0.36% loss by the end of the day. The candle shows it all with an long upper wick, 50% red body, and a dismal 13% closing range. The only positive is that volume continues to be lower indicating shakeout, but not huge institutional selling. Advancing and Declining stocks remained about equal. Utilities (XLU) sector was the leading sector of the day. Utilities is the best safe haven for risk-adverse investors who want to stay in equities vs moving to other currency and bond markets for protection. The alternatives just aren't good. Health (XLV) also performed well, supported by the increase in COVID19 cases worldwide. The only positive trend line right now is the one drawn from the 9/24 bottom. If the index were to regain that momentum, it would mean a +2.56% gain on Monday. That would also be approaching all time highs and be over the highs from the prior Monday. Let's hope this Monday will be a typical Monday in this environment. The downtrends are worse but don't look terrible. The 1d trend and the 5d trend from Monday's pivot day would result in a -0.49% loss where the index would meet up with the September correction trend line and find support from October trading at 11,400. I'm keeping the June Support line in view, but its 9% below the Friday close and there are 4 key support levels that the index would have to break thru. If we have a significant downside that takes the index below 11,300, then I'll add that possibility back to the chart.
NASDAQ:IXIC
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/16It was a back and forth week with Technology (XLK), Utilities (XLU) and Energy (XLE) all fighting for the top spot. Even Industrials (XLI) made a late effort to end the week at the top. In the end, the safe haven of Utilities (XLU) won the week as investors fled more volatile stocks for something that everyone needs going into the winter. Heat! Communication Services (XLC) and Technology (XLK) drove the early week gains in the market. But they could not hold on to the lead, nor could they keep the market in it's upward rally. Both faded throughout the week as did the major indexes. Energy (XLE) had a couple good runs through out the week as crude oil prices rose on news that the national supply was lower than expected. Low supply means demand is returning and higher prices. That's good news for the big energy companies, but ultimately investors took profits at the end of the week. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was doing well early in the week thanks to Apple's (AAPL) breakout on rumors of a new phone. "Buy the rumor, sell the news" is exactly what happened as Apple and XLY pulled back after the new phone was confirmed. Nothing like the soft comforting warmth of having your money in Utilities (XLU). Maybe I should try that.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
Sector Winners and Losers week ending 10/9Utilities (XLU) was the steady winner throughout the week, even during the pullback caused by fears of no stimulus deal being reached. For money that wants to stay in equities in lieu of low interest rates and uncertain inflation, utilities is seen as the safest sector. So even as stimulus fears mounted, XLU continued to stay strong compared to the S&P 500. Energy (XLE) also had a great week with a big one day gain of 3.75% on Thursday thanks to stability in crude oil prices and analyst projections of strong demand for at least two decades. XLE growth still lags far behind recent gains in crude oil futures. It will take some time to burn off over supply and the tech bubble continues to weigh down this sector (redux of 2000 energy story). However, Technology (XLK) rallied on Friday to take over the second place spot. Advance/Decline lines showing great breadth as big tech shares the love with their smaller siblings. Communications (XLC) was the week's loser, with Facebook (FB) having the most weight in the index. FB did not have a great week, possibly impacted by political focus on the platform.
SP:SPX
by drewby4321
!XLU Long Entry: 13:26:00 (UTC) Thu Jul 30, 2020Today's GDP number has confirmed cyclical inflation, with a devalued dollar (not a longterm, more like 5-10 months) of inflation. For those that don't understand how inflationary economic progress without real (nominal) GDP works, it's bad for everyone except the wall-street facilitating primary dealers and broker dealers. It's that easy. Even though good are going up for the average family, do you think that wall street speculators care?
AMEX:XLULong
by TayFx