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Paper Portfolio vs S&P500 - Update #1This is the first update for the video series here to grow the paper portfolio on TradingView in an attempt to beat the 'S&P index real time. Normally, I will compare the portfolio to the market, talk about weak vs strong stocks and sectors & go into what I will be changing moving forward. The portfolio has been able to get ahead of the general market and below are the specific percentage changes if they weren't clear in the video: AUGUST 2018 Portfolio = +1.83% 'S&P Index ('SPX) = +1.36% 'SPY ETF = +1.57% So far there is only a small difference between the market and the portfolio, but with adjustments and the market moving however it wants to, the changes should be expected to be more different over time. In general and in brief, my process of dealing with my portfolio according to my trading strategy is to check the health of my portfolio to determine where weakness is coming from, then run a stock screen according to my very own specific criteria to pick out the stocks that have high chance of performing very well, and finally an analysis of the market sectors to make sure changes I make will make sense. So this time around my portfolio suggested reducing exposure to stocks in Energy, Financials and Industrials. My stock screen, compared to the previous stock screen run at the beginning of the portfolio, suggested reducing exposure to stocks in Energy, Financials, Technology & Utilities and increasing exposure in Basic materials, Consumer goods, Healthcare and Industrials. The market sector ETFs from the video also echoed a similar idea, and so the orders will be placed for Monday. I am considering putting more weight in the stocks that have a better chance of doing well than before but we will see what happens over the next month. Again this is will not be a one time "get rich quick" process with excessive risk-taking or gambling, but a more disciplined approach to trading. It takes some work and it can be tough to maintain discipline, but after a while it becomes routine. Again, monthly updates on the current state of the portfolio will be continued and the next one can be expected to be made on 10/06/18 (1 month from now) and every month from that point onward. Starting capital - $10,000 Risk per trade - 1% Max. positions at a time - 20 Investment style - Equities long only (no short-selling, only stocks >$7, technical analysis > fundamental analysis) The stocks shown will not be shown as investment advice but rather shown as a form of education only. Comment on what you would like to see or hear more about! Thanks and stay tuned (will try to keep videos not too long)!
AMEX:XLUEducation
by themdtrader
General Market OverviewThis video is the first of many, and I discuss the behaviors of the sectors and potential markets that are poised to trend in the near future. The "freshest" sectors quietly trying to start a new trend are the Industrial and Consumer Discretionary Sectors. The sectors (along with their industries) I think should be on every trend follower's radar are: XLF - Financials Sector (including some real estate stocks): setting up to break out of its 5 month range; main movers are the bank industry (not the Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley kind of banks) XLI - Industrials Sector: breaking out today with the possible trend beginning here in an unpopular sector; main movers are the service industries XLK - Technology Sector: obvious uptrend that should be followed with caution, but is getting ready to continue; main movers are the software and IT services & consulting industries XLP - Consumer Staples Sector: in early stages on uptrend with possible correction or continuation in the near future; moved by multiple industries XLRE - Real Estate Sector: also in the early stages of possible uptrend; main movers of sub-sector have been REITs XLU - Utilities Sector: also in the early stages of possible uptrend; main movers are electric utilities industry XLV - Health Care Sector: uptrend already in motion with test of all-time highs today, with great potential for trend continuation; main movers are medical equipment and managed health care industries XLY - Consumer Discretionary Sector: breaking out today with the possible trend beginning here in a sector where the media does not favor much; main movers are the apparel, discount, footwear and auto industries (mostly retail) I am going to do more videos on how I diversify my portfolio, and how to create such a portfolio according to what is moving in the whole market so it would be great to get feedback from this video that I can include in those, and also ideas on material you would like to see more of! Thanks, enjoy.
AMEX:XLY
by themdtrader
XLU - Anatomy of a winning trade (reading the price action)In this video I analyze a live trade that I have been in for a few days now. I discuss how I was able to use price action to point out "red-flags" where it looked like price might turn against me. By acting on the price action I was able to get out just before a large drop and then get back in, almost where my trade originally started, but with a better cost basis as I had already locked in profits. This essentially is giving me a free trade where the worst I could do is make a small profit, or best case is ride this out to a full profit.
AMEX:XLULong
by krugman87
9
THE WEEK AHEAD: XLU, XRT, EEM, FXI DIRECTIONALS, EWZ PREMIUMWith volatility at somewhat of an ebb here, I'm eyeing exchange-traded funds for directional plays in lieu of just hand sitting. The setup pictured here is of a XLU diagonal with the long dated option out in Dec, the front month in August. I would prefer setting this up as a skip month (Aug/Oct), but an Oct expiry isn't available yet. Here are the metrics: 5.43/contract debit, max profit on setup 1.57/contract, break even at 49.43 vs. 49.54 spot, debit paid/spread width ratio 77.6%. The debit paid/spread width ratio is a little higher than I'd ordinarily like (<75% is ideal), but it's also longer-dated, so I've got extra time to reduce cost basis if I need to. I'd look to take profit at 20% of what I put it on for (1.09) rather than going for max, which assumes a finish above the short call strike. A possible variation is to buy the Dec 44 and sell the Aug 50: 5.04 db/contract, max profit on setup .96/contract, break even at 49.04, debit paid/spread width ratio 84%. The variation lowers your break even by a half strike, thus giving you a smidge more of downside pro, but also lowers your profit potential, although you can certainly roll out any in the money short call to bring in additional credit should you want to go for greater than what the max was on setup. Other candidates for this sort of setup include: XRT (within 5% of its 52 week high; downside put diagonal), EEM (upside call diagonal; at long-term support), FXI (upside call diagonal; at long-term support). The basic setup for these is to sell the front month 30-delta strike and then buy a back month long such that your break even is slightly below where it's trading (in the case of upside call diagonals; you want the break even above spot with downside put diagonals) without paying more than 75% of the width of your spread. The one exchange traded fund that still has some juice in it is EWZ, with a background implied of around 34%. Although it's a little early to cycle into August (61 days until expiry), the Aug 17th 29/37 short strangle is paying .90/contract. Given the way it's imploded, however (it's near its 52-week low), I could also see taking a bullish directional shot here, too: the Aug/Dec 28/35 upside call diagonal costs 4.88 to put on, has a max profit of 2.12 on setup, a break even of 32.88 vs. 33.04 versus spot, and a debit paid/spread width ratio of 69.7%.
AMEX:XLU
by NaughtyPines
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR, X, IYR, XLU, ORCL, IBMAlthough there are quite a few earnings coming up next week, only two catch my eye from a premium selling standpoint: Twitter and U.S. Steel. Twitter announces on Wednesday before market open; has a 30-day implied volatility of 75.19%; and the May 4th 20-delta, 74% probability of profit 27.5/38 short strangle is paying 1.28 at the mid with its defined risk counterpart, the 24/27.5/38/41 iron condor paying .87. US Steel (which can be a mover; 30-day implied 59.6%) announces on Wednesday after market close; and the May 4th 20-delta, 72% probability of profit 33/41 is paying 1.07 with its defined risk counterpart, the 30/33/41/44, paying .69. On the exchange-traded fund front, nothing looks particularly enticing at the moment. OIH and XOP round out the top of the pile volatility-wise, but their 30-days are sub-35, with other funds trailing off from there, so I'm looking at potentially putting on a couple of directional plays in single names where earnings are in the rear view mirror -- ORCL and IBM and/or in exchange-traded funds where concerns over rising interest rates and/or comparative yield have beaten them down, temporarily or otherwise -- IYR and XLU. I'll set out those ideas in a separate post, since there are multiple ways in which you can go directional with an options setup in those without hanging up a lot of buying power in actual shares. Additionally, sometimes it can be worth comparing and contrasting various "options options" so that you can decide which strategy suits your preference as to how much you want to devote to the trade ... .
NYSE:TWTR
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: XLU JULY 20TH 47 LONG/MAY 18TH 51 SHORT CALL... for a 3.02/contract debit. This is a "properly" set up split month Poor Man's Covered Call where the credit received for the short exceeds the extrinsic in the long and has a neutral to bullish assumption. It's neutral because price can stay right here, and I can reduce cost basis further by rolling the short call out in time and/or it's bullish, because it will also benefit from movement of the underlying toward the short call strike. Metrics: Max Profit on Setup*: .82/contract Max Loss on Setup: 3.02/contract Break Even on Setup: 50.02 Price/Spread Width Ratio: 75.5%** Profit Target: 20% of debit paid or .60/contract * -- These metrics are only good at setup. When you roll the short call, the potential max profit and max loss metrics change because you've received additional credit and therefore reduce cost basis further. ** -- I generally like to see less than 75%, but this is in that neighborhood. Notes: Previously, most of my posts have involved directionally neutral setups like short strangles/straddles and iron condors/flies. These setups don't represent a change in tack over my traditionally agnostic approach to the market, but rather another tool in the tool box for those who want to take a longer-term, directional position in underlyings without ponying up for a full on covered call and/or want to reduce cost basis "up front" before exercising the long for shares.
AMEX:XLULong
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: XLU JUNE 47 LONG/APRIL 27TH 49.5 SHORT CALL DIAGONAL... for a 2.05/contract debit (82% of the width of the spread). Another defined risk, neutral to bullish assumption setup in the April cycle ... . The natural alternative would be to just sell short puts here (the April 20th 48's are paying .66; 32 delta), but the premium in those just didn't seem that worth it relative to buying power effect. For example, the general margin requirement for 48 short puts would be about 9.60 with the short puts returning about 6.9% on capital at max profit. In comparison, I'm looking for a quick and dirty ~10% ROC with this setup with the side benefits being that I'm not tying up a great deal of buying power, and I've got quite a bit of time to reduce cost basis in the long should it not go my way in short order ... .
AMEX:XLULong
by NaughtyPines
72% Probability trade on XLU (Big Lizard)The Utilities sector have been underperforming. With IV Rank of 67.5 and down around 10% since December we are getting at least some premium to sell. I don't want to risk a move upward, so I Sold a Big Lizard (Straddle at 51 and bought the 52 call) to eliminate the risk to the upside. This is a high probability trade above 70% and we make money as long as it stays above $49.82. The Trade: 38 days to expiration on Feb 16 Sell 51 Put Sell 51 Call Buy 52 Call Credit $1.18 Probability of profit 72%
AMEX:XLULong
by AlexanderGotay
The Utes looking like they might be ready to go!After the long down move the utilities sector has gone through, it looks like it could be ready to turn around. We might be a little early here but this is what we're seeing that is telling us that it's ready to make a move higher finally: -When you look at the 4 hour chart you can see that the price is coming out of a squeeze higher to the upside -When looking at the RSI which is an indicator that we like to use, you can see that there is a major bullish divergence -There has been an increase in volume the last couple of days, which bodes well for a reversal Again, we might be a little early here but if you're able to be patient with a trade in utilities we see this thing turning around and moving higher in the near future! We will see what happens in the next couple of days!
AMEX:XLULong
by StrengthTrading
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS APLENTY (PLUS THAT LITTLE SHUT-DOWN)Earnings season is in full swing, with a bevvy of announcements: NFLX: announces on Monday after market close, with a rank of 79 and a background of 44. VZ: Tuesday, before market open -- rank 80/background 25. PG: Tuesday, before market open -- rank 86/background 17. GE: Wednesday, before market open -- rank 100/background 39. CAT: Thursday, before market open -- rank 84/background 30. CELG: Thursday, before market open -- rank 78/background 36. UNP: Thursday, before market open -- rank 78/background 30. INTC: Thursday, after market close -- rank 97/background 31. SBUX: Thursday, after market close -- rank 90/background 26. ABBV: Friday, before market open -- rank 78/background 26. At the moment, none of these precisely meet my criteria for a play (rank >70; background >50), but NFLX is fairly close and may frisk up during the regular session. Preliminarily, the Jan 26th (5 days 'til expiry) 205/240 is paying 4.66 at the door with break evens wide of the expected. A defined risk setup with the same strikes -- the 200/205/240/245 iron condor pays 1.72, with a max loss of 3.28 and break evens of 203.28 and 241.72 -- basically right at the expected move on both sides. On the exchange-traded funds front, the top three funds ranked by implied volatility rank or percentile are: FXI (75/22), XLB (79/16), and XLU (86/17). As with earnings, these don't meet my criteria for a play (rank >70; back ground >35), but it's always worth knowing what is potentially on the move or might set up for a play given the right conditions. With volatility products, I'm basically hand-sitting here (there was no weekly expiry to take advantage of last week). I added a few spreads on that pop and don't want to go overboard in the event that there is further market unrest in connection with the government shut-down. Although the VXST/VIX ratio has trundled down to below 1.00, it still remains fairly high at .924 and VVIX is still >100 (101.59). Instead, I'm looking to scratch out the most at-risk spreads I have on (VXX 25.5/28.5's, generally) if I get an opportunity to do so, since that uptick got me in at better strikes ... .
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: IBM, SLB, KMI EARNINGS; XLU, SMH, IYR, EWW, VXXEARNINGS The earnings on tap aren't looking very enticing to me, as I generally look at getting in on these where the implied volatility rank is >70% and the background implied volatility is >50%. However, they might be worth watching running into earnings to see if implied ramps up. KMI (implied volatility rank 79/implied volatility 30) announces earnings on the 17th after market close. The January 19th expiry's implied volatility is at 40%, with the 26th's at 31.4% (a 27.5% potential contraction). Given the underlying's price, it's probably best to go short straddle. Unfortunately, the Jan 19th's 19.5 short straddle isn't paying much -- .70 at the mid, with break evens clear of the expected move. Given what that's paying, a defined risk play won't pay. IBM (implied volatility rank 93/implied volatility 26) announces on the 18th after market close. January 19th's implied's at 43.2; the 26th's at 31.3 (38.0% potential contraction). The January 19th 157.5/170 short strangle (23 delta) is paying 2.30 at the mid; the 152.5/157.5/170/175 iron condor's only paying 1.49 (<1/3rd wing width), so would probably pass on a defined unless implied volatility frisks up running into earnings. SLB (rank 100/implied 27) announces on the 19th before market open. January 19th's implied is 35.4 vs. Jan 26th's of 27.9 (26.9% potential contraction). The 19th's 76/80 short strangle's paying 1.07 at the mid. Defined -- not worth it. NON-EARNINGS Another area in which implied volatility rank makes potential plays look promising, but where background implied volatility isn't up to stuff. Currently, there are no exchange-traded funds whose implied volatility rank is in the upper one-quarter of so of where it's been over the past year and where background implied is greater than 35%. For what it's worth, though, here are the top ones: XLU (73/15), SMH (59/23), IYR (57/14), and EWW (51/24). VOLATILITY PRODUCTS Recently I've been working VXX* in two ways: (1) "price agnostic," where I enter either a long put vertical or short call vertical when the next weekly expiry open on Thursday or Friday; and (2) on pops where the VXST/VIX ratio is >1.0 (the higher the better). Unfortunately, it's tough to forecast a pop (although I've seen people repeatedly make the attempt), so you just have to set up an alert to trigger on a VXST/VIX ratio print of >1.00 or a VVIX print of >110 and keep powder dry for when it happens. * -- I've been waiting for UVXY to reverse split on the notion that a 1/2 strike of movement in an 8.67 (UVXY Friday close price) underlying is somewhat more of a heavy lift than a 1/2 strike of movement in a 25.85 one, even though UVXY is leveraged.
NYSE:IBM
by NaughtyPines
1