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AWS growth fuels long-term potential despite uncertainties.I significantly increased my AMZN position ahead of earnings, as AWS is seeing astronomical growth and is set to be the standout star of this decade. With its high Beta and growth potential, AMZN deserves a large portion of my portfolio. I find Wall Street’s $220 price target reasonable. Short-term, we’re trading sideways, and with MACD indecisive, my first buy zone is around $180 during pullbacks. If it reaches $166, which I doubt, that’s where I’ll go all in. For now, it seems to be pulling back from resistance, but I’m not concerned.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Tolgaun6
Volatility in Consumer Discretionary driven by AMZN and TSLA.The heavy presence of AMZN and TSLA in Consumer Discretionary makes the sector more volatile. However, I don't see an issue with the trend. Buyers may view levels up to $192.55 as a buying opportunity, especially with AMZN’s high potential from its broad range of innovative ventures. Although TSLA raises some concerns, AMZN could act as a balancing force, or TSLA might follow AMZN’s lead. My price target for the fund is around $212.55, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci level, and AMZN could reach Wall Street's $220 target, which I find reasonable.
AMEX:XLYLong
by Tolgaun6
Is Amazon stock trapping retail traders? Is it too late?Historically, Amazon tends to experience a run-up leading into Prime Day, which could add positive momentum to the stock. There are some indications that history might, in fact, repeat itself. The yellow line represents the 6-month anchored VWAP, while the white line shows the July highs anchored VWAP. These VWAPs are crucial as they provide a strong indication of where average buying and selling have occurred over significant time frames, acting as dynamic support or resistance levels. I anticipate strong resistance near the August highs, as this is a level where increased supply could enter the market. To counter this, I am hoping for a tight consolidation or base formation in the $183.22 - $187.50 range, setting up for a powerful upside move. If the price can hold within this range, it could pave the way for a retest of the August high and potentially push further up towards $200 by the end of the year.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by MysticMads
Nike’s Troubles Could Persist After Poor Results & Stock SlumpLess than a year after posting its longest losing streak on record, Nike’s stock registered its worst day ever, erasing nearly $20 on Friday. The collapse came after the sportswear giant reported poor Q4 FY2024 results and offered disappointing guidance. Revenues shrank 2% y/y, the most in four years, with executives expecting a stepper decline of 10% in the current quarter. But the bad news stop there, as they also reversed their full FY25 outlook, now seeing a mid-single digits drop. The firm faces increased competition from startups like On running, while Adidas seems to be regaining its stride. Nike’s direct-to-consumer pursuit gave way to competitors and proved to be a mistake. Sales in Greater China grew in the reported quarter, but the was mainly due to the 6.18 promotional festival and this critical region remains a source of uncertainty. At the same time the external environment remains unfriendly for discretionary goods, as US inflation lingers, borrowing costs remains high, the excess pandemic savings that supported spending are now gone and credit card delinquencies are rising. The Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF (XLY) gains less than 5% YTD as the S&P500 soars, but over performs compared to Nike’s nearly 30% YTD losses. It is clear that Nike’s problems are likely to persist and continue to weigh on the stock. Friday’s historic plunge exposes NKE to the 2020 lows (60.00). On the other hand, Nike’s leadership has been taking action to mitigate the issues. It is putting emphasis back on third party vendors, sales through which increased in the last quarter. It is cutting costs, which helped its gross margins and net income to widen in Q4FY24. Nike is also refocusing on innovation, which could help it regain its edge over rivals. The two major sporting events of the summer, the Euro 2024 football championship and the Paris Olympics, can help it regain its appeal. The turnaround efforts create optimism for the future, but they will take time and the next few quarters are likely not going to be easy. Technically the drop of NKE is stretched and a rebound would be reasonable. However daily closes above the EMA200 (black line) would be needed for the bearish momentum to pause and that does not look easy under current conditions. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
NYSE:NKEShort
by FXCM
The End of a Tesla Era! Tesla missed on earnings. Huge decline for this leading EV stock. Tesla was already getting oversold on the daily chart, & now with this decline its a salavating opportunity for day traders. I still think the true swing trade level is a bit lower from here. This weekly close will tell us more. We have included an analysis of the XLY sector (Consumer Discretionary). We discuss 3 signals that have only ever happened over a 25 year period. The weekly Golden Cross. Often this Weekly Golden cross is bullish long term but historically weak price follows in the short term.
AMEX:XLY
by Trading-Capital
MACRO MONDAY 28 ~ Discretionary Index Vs Staples IndexMacro Monday 28 – Discretionary Vs Staples Today we are going to look at the following two very interesting SPDR Indexes and their relationship to one another to help us understand where the U.S. consumer is at present. SPDR Select Sector Funds (“SPDE SSF”) 1. Consumer Discretionary SPDR Fund AMEX:XLY 2. Consumer Staples SPDR Fund AMEX:XLP For reference the SPDR (AKA the Spider) is a short form name for a “Standard & Poor's Depository Receipt”, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) managed by State Street Global Advisors that tracks the Standard & Poor's 500 index CBOE:SPX What are Discretionary Expenses? Discretionary expenses are defined as “a cost that a business or household can survive without, if necessary”. These are the nonessentials like meals at restaurants, entertainment costs, vacations and 50” flat screen TV’s. What’s in the SPDR Consumer Discretionary Index? The SPDR Consumer Discretionary Index seeks to provide focused exposure to companies that provide discretionary nonessential services or produces such as hotels, restaurants and leisure; textiles, apparel and luxury goods; household durables; automobiles; automobile components; distributors; leisure products; and diversified consumer services. The SPDR Consumer Discretionary Index top 10 holdings are: 1. Amazon 22.62% 2. Tesla 17.76% 3. McDonalds 4.63% 4. Home Depot 4.58% 5. Nike 3.80% 6. Lowes Cos 3.70% 7. Booking 3.62% 8. Starbucks Corp 3.24% 9. TJX Companies 3.22% 10. Chipotle 1.85% Now we understand exactly what the SPDR Consumer Discretionary Index is and what its main components are. We know that the index itself is driven by stock prices from a collection of companies that offer discretionary services and products in the U.S. Now lets have a look at the SPDR Consumer Discretionary Chart Chart 1 – SPDR Consumer Discretionary - AMEX:XLY At a glance the chart demonstrates the following: ▫️ In December 2007 price fell below the 200 Week Moving Average (WMA) which coincided with the exact date the Great Financial Crisis commenced (from Dec 2007 – June 2009). ▫️ Interestingly price got back above the 200 WMA in February 2010, 8 months after the recession had ended. ▫️ Since 2009 Consumer Discretionary spending appears to be in a general up trend with a lot of volatility in recent years however still in an uptrend. ▫️ The 200 WMA is still rising and sloping upwards, and price is now back above it which indicates strength. ▫️ Recently we made a potential lower higher and this is something we should look to confirm over the coming months. Should we break higher this would be obviously bullish, another lower high and we know to be cautious. ▫️ In the event we breach the 200 WMA, we should start to get more cautious. This has occurred twice since 2020 and price got back above the 200 WMA however we are very aware that a breach of the 200 WMA can signal a recession as it did so accurately in Dec 2007. ▫️ If we fall below the “INITIAL SUPPORT” marked on the chart, consider this an initial serious warning. ▫️ If we breach the “MUST HOLD SUPPORT” this would be extremely bearish. - you will see that volatility to the downside on Consumer Discretionary can be quiet something in our comparison charts below. It is worth noting the level of increased volatility since 2018 on the chart. We have not really seen anything like it before dating back to 1998. Lets move onto the Consumer Staples and see what they are, what they consist of and what the chart is telling us here. What are Staples? The term consumer staples refers to a set of essential products used by consumers. This category includes things like foods and beverages, household goods, and hygiene products as well as alcohol and tobacco. These goods are those products that people are unable—or unwilling—to cut out of their budgets regardless of their financial situation. What’s in the SPDR Consumer Staples Index? The SPDR Consumer Staples Index seeks to provide a focused exposure to companies that providing consumer staples distribution & retail; household products; food products; beverages; tobacco; and personal care products industries in the U.S. The SPDR Consumer Staples Index top 10 holding are: 1. Proctor & Gamble 14.11% 2. Costco Wholesale 11.56% 3. Pepsico 9.49% 4. Coca Cola 9.36% 5. Philip Morris Int 4.54% 6. Walmart 4.53% 7. Mondelez Int 4.47% 8. Altria Group 3.40% 9. Colgate Palmolive 3.06% 10. Target 3.00% We now know exactly what the SPDR Consumer Staples Index is and what its main components are. We know that the index itself is driven by stock prices from a collection of companies that offer Consumer Staple services and products in the U.S. Products/services people cannot do without, products they need day to day. Now lets have a look at the Chart Chart 2 – SPDR Consumer Staples Index AMEX:XLP At a glance the chart demonstrates the following: ▫️ The high in Consumer Staples in Dec 2007 coincided with the beginning of the Great Financial Crisis. In Chart 1 above on Consumer Discretionary we seen that a breach of the 200 WMA coincided with Dec 2007 GFC. Both charts demonstrated some synchronicity in advising caution from Dec 2007 forward. ▫️ Nine months later in Sept 2008 a lower high formed in Staples and after that the lower support line was lost following which capitulation occurred. I have marked up a similar “MUST HOLD SUPPORT” line for the current price structure. We have made a lower high similar to 2008. A breach above that lower high would be bullish, continued lower highs would indicate weakness. ▫️ Since 2009 Consumer Staples still appear to be in a general up trend with increased volatility in recent years however still in an uptrend. ▫️ The 200 WMA is still rising and sloping upwards, and price is now back above it now again which indicates strength. ▫️ All the same levels are apparent here as above in Chart 1. The 200 WMA, the “INITIAL SUPPORT” and the “MUST HOLD SUPPORT”. Now that we are familiar with the charts, their price history, the important levels to watch and some synchronicities, lets have a look at how these charts compare when you line them up together on the same scale. Chart 3 – Discretionary versus Staples SUBJECT CHART AT TOP OF ARTICLE We will take three main things away from this chart: 1. The big obvious finding on the chart is just the extent at which the Consumer Discretionary Index (orange) has risen above Consumer Staples(blue). This wide gap between the orange and blue lines is really stark and it appears it may be starting to close. 2. Historically Consumer Discretionary (orange) revisits and falls lower than Consumer Staples (Blue), particularly during recessions. We have a long way to go for this to happen again. See Chart 1 and Chart 2 above for important support levels to watch (for both). 3. Consumer Discretionary (Orange) started to make a series of lower highs prior to the Great Financial Crisis (see black arrow on chart), something similar may be occurring now. We are also already aware that Consumer Discretionary fell below the 200 WMA in exactly December 2007 which was the first month of the Great Financial Crisis. This is also the exact date when Consumer Staples topped in 2007. At present Consumer Staples made a top in April 2022 and Consumer Discretionary made a potential lower high in Dec 2023, however it has not fallen below and remained below the 200 WMA (making this a key line in the sand to watch going forward). Chart 4 – The Relative Strength of Consumer Discretionary In this chart I just wanted to illustrate the relative strength of the Consumer Discretionary over the Consumer Staples over the longer term. You can create this chart by inserting XLY/XLP into TradingView. As you can see this chart has been trending up and to the right since 2008. Discretionary spending appears to be on a long term uptrend and this is worth noting as a long term potential shift towards spending on services, experiences and higher end electronics. Technology Index’s in prior Macro Mondays are showing strength and we have to consider that if we do not breach the important support levels marked in Chart 1 and Chart 2 above, we may have a secular shift in spending habits towards discretionary (until support levels are broken). Granted this may be the least probable and least accepted view given recession fears, liquidity concerns and the yield curve un-inversion likely to occur in 2024. We do however need to keep an open mind, a COVID-19 type event might bring us down to the bottom trend line only to bounce off it after another stimulus hits the market. If we lost that lower support line, we can say unequivocally that the secular trend of discretionary spending strength is over. We now have a two more Indexes to watch that give us a good idea of the impact consumer spending is having on companies in the marketplace. We have our levels to watch and a good understanding of the risks and potential trends. Use it wisely. All my charts are on TradingView and you can revisit them at any time and press play to see have we breached any important levels to the upside or downside. Thanks for reading. PUKA
AMEX:XLP
by PukaCharts
2
$LULU - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹 Breakout a short-term resistance level, signaling a positive trend for the short-term trading range. 🔹In case of a NEGATIVE reaction, it has support at approximately 385. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern: ◦ DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 ◦ DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 ◦ HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 ◦ REC - Rectangle | 🔵 ◦ iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ:LULULong
by wavepoint99
XLY WCA - Inv H&SSector: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund Ticker: XLY Exchange: NYSE Arca Industry: Exchange-Traded Fund Introduction: Welcome to our weekly technical analysis. Today, we're looking at the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY), listed on the NYSE Arca exchange. The weekly chart is currently exhibiting an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern: An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is typically seen during periods of market consolidation following a downtrend. It signals a potential reversal, characterized by three troughs, with the central one (the head) being the deepest, and the two on the sides (the shoulders) being shallower and roughly equal in depth. Analysis: Previously, the XLY sector was in a clear downward trend, as represented by the blue diagonal resistance. However, the emergence of an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern during the consolidation phase suggests a potential bullish reversal. Impressively, the right shoulder is higher than the left shoulder, adding to the bullish sentiment. Furthermore, the price has broken above the 200 EMA and the horizontal resistance at 153.40, reinforcing the bullish environment. The current consolidation at this previous resistance level, indicated by a dragonfly doji, may solidify the breakout. However, confirmation will only come with the closure of the current candle. Should the breakout hold, the price target is set at $177, indicating a potential upside of approximately 16.7%. Conclusion: The weekly chart of the XLY sector reveals an intriguing setup in the form of an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. This may signal profitable trading opportunities in stocks within this sector over the coming weeks. As always, this analysis should be used as part of your overall market research and risk management strategy, and not as direct trading advice. Remember, trading carries risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider liking, sharing, and following for more insights. Wishing you profitable trading! Best regards, Karim Subhieh
AMEX:XLY
by KarimSubhieh
XLY set to decline * Failed 2u on quarterly; still time to go outside quarter * Failed 2u on monthly; out of time to go outside, but negative momentum * Clear rejection of bearish trendline on weekly chart. No real support until it falls to 127 (currently 143.66) * Daily chart shows bulls mounted one more challenge to the trendline but that failed even harder. “If markets try to do something twice, it usually then tries the opposite” (I think this is an Al Brooks quote) I am STRONG BEARISH on this
AMEX:XLYShort
by ChemistNate
Trade Idea: VICIVici properties is showing weakening in its trend. This has been directly tied to the weakness in XLRE - real estate We believe VICI properties has much more downside. This specific Real estate play also has much property exposure to the casino type names. With many of the Casino charts like MGM, LVS looking "topheavy" this may be a correlated play that already has headwinds from the weakening in real estate. If the economy weakens to a degree the consumer discretionary stocks should also be hit.
NYSE:VICI
by Trading-Capital