Week 6 - 2023 - Weekly S&P500 Sector AnalysisDiscussing all the major weekly trends for each sector.
XLY
Week 5 Sector Analysis: S&P 500Discussing all the leading sectors
0:15 XLK
1:40 XLV
3:45 XLY
4:45 XLC
5:37 XLP
6:26 XLF
7:33 XLI
9:00 XLU
10:54 XLRE
12:14 XLB
13:15 XLE
Weekly S&P500 Sector ReviewDiscussing all the leading sectors and stocks to identify major trends.
This weekly timeframe is suitable for longer term investors but insightful for traders.
Weekly Sector Analysis S&P 500Looking into all the major sectors of the S&P 500 to see if this breakout can be trusted.
we review all sectors on a weekly basis to provide insights of the overall market.
Most sectors have not broken out & trading at major resistance.
Corrective Rally in XLY Should Fail According to Elliott WaveCycle from 11.15.2022 high is proposed complete as wave (1) at 126. Down from 11.15.2022 high, wave 1 ended at 138.20 and rally in wave 2 ended at 147.32. The ETF then extends lower in wave 3 towards 126.63 and wave 4 rally ended at 129.90. Final leg lower wave 5 ended at 126 which completed wave (1) in higher degree. Wave (2) rally is currently in progress with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 129.80, wave ((b)) ended at 127.68, and wave ((c)) ended at 130.68. This completed wave W. Pullback in wave X ended at 126.83.
Wave Y higher is in progress with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Up from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 131.21. Expect wave ((b)) pullback to stay above wave X (126.83), and the ETF should extend higher in wave ((c)) higher. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave W which comes at 131.55 – 134.44. From this area, the ETF should find sellers and resistance to either extend lower or pullback in 3 waves. As far as pivot at 146.50 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
$PVH going down is this a sign for $XLY to follow suit$PVH is a company that brings you the brands like Tommy Hilfiger for example. I am looking for this to head back to the down side as we are starting to get into the new year.
Bullish case: crossing above the psychological level of 70 this will make some noise as we are currently in high low territory. If there is a strong amount of support, it will retest 72 and 77 levels.
Bearish case: My general thesis, after breaking this support that imbalance candle could lead it into 64-65 level before a retracement. With all indicators pointing to the downside here, I think this is the most probable situation.
TJX for the win!!!!!on the daily chart TJX right now setting up for a bull flag looking for a $15 move to the upside
HD looking good i like the come HD showing from all times lows it made a %50 retracement but they are not out the woods yet would like to see a 61% or 75% retracement first
Market remains very defensiveConsumer Staples continue to strongly outperform Consumer Discretionary. Growth stocks remain quite bearish. Value continues to outperform.
XLY Consumer Discretionary poised for a break down?The XLY has been mostly gone no where since May. Break out attempted but didn't go no wheres. We're back at the July 2020 levels.
Could the price action be saying we're headed to a further 20%? That would put is back in April 2020. The red & green lines are clones.
$XLY Potential 2-1-2 Bearish Move $XLY's quarter ends with an inside shooter that may lead to a 2-1-2 bearish continuation.
Because of this, I'll be looking to short Consumer Discretionary stocks.
Bullwhip Effect XLY Consumer Discretionary could be seeing the effects of the bullwhip effect that Michael Burry has been warning about. Big inventory builds means prices are set to crash hard? Will be interesting to see if he is right.
XLY Testing Breakout LevelXLY is testing the recent breakout level (former resistance). A hold here would be viewed in a bullish context as former resistance will have become support. This is a key ETF to watch considering the heavy weights of AMZN and TSLA. - Jamie
XLY XLP factors for 2022 and beyondQuick review of the spending habits over last the years since i published my first chart...
covid craziness brought the chart heavily into the XLP 'stable needs' but a huge rebound into the luxury spending, probably due to the rich getting richer and all that crazy covid money and legal scams of the mega rich
energy price increases and inflation has knobbled that spike and brought it way back down to earth with a lengthy recession in sight its good to review markets on these levels
have a great summer, stay sane with all the relentless BS spouted from the MSM everyday! if u feel under the weather, throw out your Te'lie'vision
Simple short - VFC Corp - Long term head and shouldersVFC is a corp that not only is showing a wonderful long-term topping pattern. It's also positioned in a rather poor manner for the current macro environment. They are a cyclical company that sources the majority of their products from Asia, experiencing significant supply issues that are constricting margins significantly.
Not sure if this breaks immediately, based purely on probability, it will likely confuse people and trade sideways around the neckline for a while. But if market conditions continue, it may just break straight through and potentially retest significantly later.
AAPL broke wma50/channel w/ LHLL; may retest 138-135 zone + TLAAPL is the last big tech to break, pulling down QQQ & SPY with it.
In this weekly chart, it just broke the green WMA50 line & also the upchannel. It seems to be making a M-pattern already with a lower high & a lower low thus confirming the downtrend. Despite a big relief rally bouncing from 140 zone last Friday, I think AAPL may still go down to my green 138-135 support zone. Any big relief rally will still be rejected by my yellow 155 Alert zone.
In the next few weeks, AAPL may want to retest the violet TL since 2017. Reaching either 135 or 120 will end the ABC correction & start a true rally.
AAPL at the 140 to 120 zone is already an attractive place to accumulate.
Pls note that 135 is a 0.618 retracement & 120 is a 0.786 Fib.
Not trading advice
XLY Ready for the next leg down?XLY has rallied to and thru previous support on decreasing volume. It is currently oversold and retesting the previous swing high.
The main holdings in XLY are:
- Amazon
-Tesla
(these two make up over 35%)
-Home Depot
-Nike
-McDonald's
-Lowes
-Starbucks
-Target
-Booking
-TJX
Consumer disposable income is hovering around the Jan 2020 lows (fred.stlouisfed.org )
Inflation expectations continue to rise (www.clevelandfed.org)
As always, this is just food for thought!
Closed: XLY March 18th 153/195 Short Strangle... for a 2.24 debit.
Comments: Taking profit here ... . Filled for a 4.02 credit (See Post Below). Closing it out today for 2.24 results in a 1.78 ($178) profit.
Opening: XLY March 18th 153/195 Short Strangle... for a 4.02 credit.
Comments: At the top of my exchange-traded fund list for implied volatility rank at 92 with a 39-day of 39.8%. Selling the 17's on both sides. 4.02 credit on buying power effect of 17.73; 22.7% ROC at max; 11.3% at 50% max.
$SONO back towards $45It has maintained overperformance over the consumer discretionary sector (represented by XLY) but has lost some of its relative strength against it.
It appears that the extra alpha and extreme overperformance is going to be back on SONO 's side based on the chart bottom chart where the relative strength is hitting a level that usually would result in a bounce back.
They have earnings coming up and tend to trade very well after earnings, at least initially. On average based on the last 3 earnings reports, they could have roughly a 25.77% return after this upcoming earnings report.
This is also a holiday/seasonal trade for me. They should have a killer quarter.
The company is also extremely well managed and the product is unbelievable. Sonos isn't going anywhere anytime soon unless they get acquired AT A PREMIUM.
