Natural Gas Prices Reach Yearly HighsNatural Gas Prices Reach Yearly Highs
According to the XNG/USD chart, natural gas prices have risen by approximately 13% since early November and this week hit a new 2024 high.
Factors Driving Bullish Sentiment (as reported by Reuters):
→ A sharp increase in global gas prices.
→ Forecasts of colder weather and higher heating demand in the United States.
Will Natural Gas Prices Continue to Rise?
From a fundamental perspective, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast on 13 November predicts natural gas prices could peak in January 2025.
From a technical analysis standpoint of the XNG/USD chart, the $3.200 level is a critical resistance, having previously triggered price reversals in October (B) and June (not shown on the chart). Price movements since early August have formed a trend channel (shown in blue).
Bullish Arguments:
→ The $2.7 level serves as support, aligned with Fibonacci retracement levels, as the B→C pullback is at 50% of the A→B rise.
→ The $2.93 level has flipped from resistance to support (indicated by arrows).
Bearish Arguments:
→ Prices reversed sharply downward earlier this week from the $3.200 level, showing seller activity.
→ Reports indicate utilities are injecting gas into storage at faster-than-expected rates, suggesting stockpiles could meet increased cold-weather demand.
Bulls may attempt to keep prices within the blue channel and make further attempts to breach the $3.200 level. However, XNG/USD signals show that bears are ready to push back.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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Natural Gas Price Drops Over 8% Since the Start of the MonthNatural Gas Price Drops Over 8% Since the Start of the Month
On 26 September, when analysing the XNG/USD natural gas price chart, we noted that:
→ Bulls might be "gathering strength" for a potential attempt to break the psychological level of 3.00.
→ If successful, this would pave the way towards the yearly high around 3.20.
Since then, the price of natural gas:
→ Broke above the 3.00 level on 27 September;
→ Reached 3.20 on 4 October, after which it reversed downward.
Bearish sentiment was driven by:
→ News that Hurricane Helen had minimal impact on natural gas processing facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast;
→ Adequate gas reserves ensuring sufficient supply;
→ Weather forecasts indicating short-term gas demand at the end of September.
Technical analysis of the XNG/USD chart shows the upward channel (marked in blue) has lost relevance. It’s evident that:
→ The bounce from the median line (shown by the first arrow) was weak;
→ The attempt to re-enter the channel from its lower boundary (as shown by the second arrow) led to a test of the 3.00 psychological level, which acted as resistance.
There are no signs yet of bulls trying to regain control on the XNG/USD chart. If the supply and demand balance remains unchanged, the natural gas price may continue its decline within the red downward channel, possibly towards its lower boundary, reinforced by the former resistance at 2.65.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
XNGUSD Spot Natural Gas to Reverse SHORTXNGUSD ( Spot Natural Gas ) on the 15 minute chart shows that it has risen to a supply and
resistance zone while the dual time from RSI indicator shows a bearish divergence in the
faster green RSI line. The predictive algo of Luxalgo for the regression line forecasts price
action to be downside. These are enough analytical aspects for me to take short positions on
equities and forex markets for natural gas correcting downside.
Natural Gas Price Hits 3-Month HighNatural Gas Price Hits 3-Month High
According to today's XNG/USD chart, the price of natural gas:
→ has risen by approximately 30% since the beginning of September;
→ is currently around the 2.95 level – the last time the price was at this level was at the end of June this year.
Bullish sentiment is supported by:
→ forecasts of a warmer autumn, which is increasing demand for natural gas to power air conditioning systems;
→ concerns related to Hurricane Helen in the US Gulf of Mexico. According to the EIA, 5% of total US dry natural gas production comes from the Gulf of Mexico, and 51% of the total capacity of US natural gas processing plants is located along the US Gulf Coast.
Technical analysis of the XNG/USD chart shows that in September, the price has been moving within an ascending channel (marked in blue).
It is noticeable that from the 20th onwards, demand forces have intensified, leading to the following:
→ the price broke through the 2.64 resistance level;
→ the price moved to the upper half of the ascending channel, after which its median line began to show signs of support;
→ the RSI indicator reached overbought territory.
Currently, there are no signs on the XNG/USD chart of bears attempting to seize control, while the bulls may be "gathering strength" for a possible attempt to break through the psychological level of 3.00. If this happens and is successful, it could pave the way towards the yearly high in the 3.20 region.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
XNG/USD "NATURAL GAS" Robbery plan in Long SideHola ola My Dear,
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XNG/USD: Natural Gas Price Hits 2.5-Week LowXNG/USD: Natural Gas Price Hits 2.5-Week Low
As shown on the XNG/USD chart, today, the price of natural gas fell below $2.16 for the first time since 8 August.
Bearish sentiment is being driven by the fact that: → This is the last week of summer. Gas consumption typically decreases in mid-September as the use of air conditioning declines; → Gas storage levels are abundant. According to Reuters, current stock levels exceed the seasonal average by 12%.
A technical analysis of the XNG/USD chart provides several arguments suggesting that bears hold the upper hand in the market:
→ Price action is forming a descending channel, shown in red. The upper boundary of the channel acted as resistance, with the price forming a bearish rounding reversal pattern (as indicated in blue).
→ After a large bearish candle on 22 August, the resistance level at $2.24 became more significant.
→ Support lines, forming a fan shape, are being broken one by one, with increasingly shallow angles indicating weakening demand.
Nevertheless, bulls have an opportunity to turn the situation around by using support from the trendline (shown in yellow) at least in the short term.
However, in the longer term, if the supply-demand balance remains unchanged, there is reason to believe that the price of natural gas on the XNG/USD chart may continue its downward trend within the red channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Natural Gas Robbery Plan To Make and take MoneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
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The Price of Natural Gas Finds Support. But for How Long?The Price of Natural Gas Finds Support. But for How Long?
On 21 June, we wrote that the trend in the market was weakening, noting that:
→ Forecasts of a hotter summer, published during April-May, led to a sustained bullish trend in the natural gas market.
→ According to the technical analysis of the 4-hour XNG/USD chart and the signs of weakness that have formed on it, the level of 3.160 appears to sufficiently account for the risks of an extremely hot summer.
→ Bears might push the price to the lower boundary of the ascending trend channel.
Since then, the price of natural gas has:
→ tested the median of the ascending channel (shown by an arrow), which acted as resistance;
→ broken the lower boundary of the channel;
→ dropped to the level of 2.06 amid news of sufficient natural gas reserves in storage.
And, as the XNG/USD chart shows today, it is this level that is now forming signs of support for the market:
→ the lows A-B appear to be elements of an incomplete double bottom pattern;
→ the level of 2.06 acted as resistance in March-April, so support here is anticipated by technical analysts.
But can the bulls reverse the trend?
In the near future, the price of natural gas may consolidate within a narrowing triangle, formed by the support at 2.06 and the descending trend line (shown in red). It is possible that failures in any attempts to break through the red line will lead to a resumption of the downward trend and a subsequent decline in price towards the support at 1.875.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
XNGUSD / NATURAL GAS Robbery plan on Long SideMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
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Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 1h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
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Natural Gas Price: Bullish Trend WeakensNatural Gas Price: Bullish Trend Weakens
Forecasts of a hotter summer, published during April and May, led to a sustained bullish trend in the natural gas market, as this commodity is heavily used for air conditioning.
Specifically:
→ The XNG/USD chart indicates that from 1st April to today, the price of natural gas has increased by more than 55%.
→ According to Bloomberg, there is a 61% chance that 2024 will be the hottest year on record, surpassing 2023.
→ Natural gas supplies may be unstable due to an unforeseen maintenance shutdown at the Freeport plant.
According to the technical analysis of the 4-hour XNG/USD chart:
→ The price of natural gas has formed an ascending channel (shown in blue).
→ On 23rd May, the price reached a 2024 high around the 3.160 level, breaking the upper boundary and entering the overbought zone on the RSI indicator.
→ On 11th June, this high was marginally exceeded, but the price then turned down, forming a false bullish breakout pattern.
Thus, the 3.160 level appears to adequately factor in the risks of an extremely hot summer. Therefore, the bullish trend weakens as it approaches this level.
Meanwhile, bears are becoming more active, indicated by:
→ The price of natural gas twice breaking below the green lines of intermediate upward trends.
→ The price broke below the median line of the blue channel (shown by the arrow).
→ This week, the psychological level of 3.000 acted as resistance.
It is possible that the bears could drive the price down to the lower boundary of the blue channel.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
UNG can it rally from another monthly low ? LONGUNG on the daily chart has put in another monthly low similar to that of December after
falling from a double top in early January. Gas production may be low. Storages may be
depleting as demand is steady even in mild winters. The indicators show mild bullish
divergence on the zero-lag MACD and volatility compression on the Fibonacci levels with low
volumes overall and selling predominating. RSI levels are in the upper 40s and staady.
I see this as a long trade setup targeting first 22 near to the midline of the Fib bands and
then 24 at the Fib retracement level for the trend down from October into late December.
The stop loss is about 2% at 19. R:r 2.6 : 0.4 or about 6.
UNG Natural Gas ETF now rising from its reversal LONG (XNGUSD )UNG on a 120-minute chart has reversed from a long trend down which started in mid -January.
This was a steep trend down from the start into mid- March where the trend angle lessened in
a period of relative consolidation until May 1st where the reversal occurred. This is a falling
wedge breakout with the trendlines of the wedge in thick red and thick green for resistance
and support respectively. The VWAP band lines have been downsloping. Price is breaking through
the lower band lines and heading toward the mean anchored VWAP line. Price is now above
a EMA 100 Keltner Channel which is now trending up.
I will take long trades here of both shares and call options. The targets are marked with
black horizontal lines from pivots in Jnauary. The are in the levels of 21 and 26 for now.
I would not be surprised if UNG moves up and targets the highs of last October at 30 in the
upcoming months. Many utility companies this summer will be burning gas to generate
electricity needed for air conditioning and demand should be rising.
XNGUSD SPOT NATURAL GAS Slowly getting ready to reverse LONGXNGUSD is here on a 120 minute chart. I can see that it is trying to turn the corner and head up.
The RSI is turning up in bullish divergence. While price is below its moving averages, the SMA20
is soon to be in reach. The anchored VWAP lines are approaching a slope decreasing to zero,
while price is getting closer to the mean VWAP as those lines go flat. Overall, volumes are
on the rise while price is sideways, so there is bullish divergence in the volume trend.
Overall, I see XNGUSD setting up for an uptrend. It could be a big one. Time to buckle up before
turning the key. there may be some horsepower involved.
XNGUSD- Bollinger / TTM Squeeze for Breakout LONGThis 30 minute chart of spot natural gas demostrates the indicators triggering / signaling a big
move as it gets underway. I missed the big move catching the two smaller scalpes earlier in the
day. For me, this demonstrates the value of one or more of these indicators armed with an alert
or notification to catch the move once it gets started. It also shows the value of detecting a
Bollinger band width and volatility contraction before the release. Price action is showing
a high tight flag pattern which could forecast a similar leg higher after sufficient consolidation
to ti reach the consensus equilibrium of buyers and short sellers as to what the price should be.
I will be one of those buyers adding again to my position which I expect to swing trade
at least the rest of this week. For those already with good-sized positions, some may elect
to sell some to take a partial profit. I am considering being more watchful of such a situation
also realizing that a short squeeze could get underway since XNGUSD as been falling for
sometime. Long-time shorts might decide this is the exit point to avoid further loss of
unrealized profits. If they do so they play into the hand of new buyers and those holding.
Buckle up, this could get interesting.
XNGUSD Looking for Bullish continuation LONGXNGUSD is still in oversold and undervalued territory as demand may be mitigated
by anticipation of milder weather and supplies seem to be more than adequate. XNGUSD
may move higher if either of those factors changes. The chart shows price about 15% above
support and about 60% below heavy resistance. The RSI indicator shows the faster RSI line
above the 50 level and so I think the bullish move is supported by buying volume. I will take
a long trade on forex and in UNG / UNL on the equities market.
BOIL trends up continuation expected LONGBOIL is here on a 30 minute chart. It has reversed this week and ascended 13% with a double
bottom at 13 and 13.25 forming a resing support trendline. Volumes changed from selling
to buying. Price bounced off the ATR- stop loss in its pullback and now appears poised to
break through the moving average channel and get support after that cross-over.
I will take a long trade here with a stop loss of the pivot low of 14 while targeting the
upper boundary of the Keltner channel at 15.25 for two-thirds the position with the remainder
to run to try to reach 37 , the pivot high of January. As a leveraged instrument, BOIL is very
volatile and needs extra care in the trade.
BOIL- Premarket Long Trade Scalp RecapsBOIL is here on the 15- minute chart with a set of Bollinger Bands, a Bollinger Band Oscillator by
LuxAlgo as well as a dual-time frame RSI indicator by Chris Moody. The settings for the Bollinger
Band set up are period 49 EMA 14 standard deviations 2 /2.618 ( These are multiples of 7 and
Fib #s for mathematical reasons.
Entries are signal is price crossing the base line of the Bollinger Bands ( the EMA 14) or else
the RSI lines crossing over the 50 level and green above red.
Exits are the price action going outside the outer upper BB band and then fading back inside
of both inner and outer bands or RSI green and red crossing such that green fades quicker than
red. Entries and exits are managed with alerts/notifications to minimize screen time.
The first trade began on 2/27 at 8:10 AM ended 2hours later. 50 shares taken gained $ 1.50 each
for a total of $75.00 realized profit in the long scalp. The second trade on 2/28 was
taken in the premarket at 6:45 AM EST with again 50 shares taken then closed at 9:15 AM
for a 150 minute trade. Realized profit was $1.20 per share and $60 overall.
Overall, there were 4.5 hours in the trades yielding $135.00 or $30 hr for the time in the trade.
Risk was minimal as trades were taken at the lows with a stop loss outside the BB and below
them. Time spent on the screen amounted to less than 30 minutes overall making the
realized profit excellent for the time and effort expended. This idea illustrates good use
of a Bollinger Band strategy coupled with alerts and notifications. Notably, I did not spend
any effor adjusting the stop losses during the trade as I am very confident of the setup and
the strategy. Today is another day for the same trade.
BOIL is starting to get hot ( 3X Natural Gas ETF)as shown on the 15 minute chart is rising in an ascending parallel channel and is suitable
for a long buy entry when the indicators are triggered. The onslaught of winter cold, the
sanctions against Russian gas exports and inflationary pressure on commodities all bode well
for the trend up for natural gas on forex and equities markets. See also my idea linked below
for a view of the chart from the 4H time frame.
BOIL ( Natural Gas Futures 3X leveraged) heats up LONGBOIL in the past month fell from a head and shoulders pattern on the 15 minute time frame
into a trend down which leveled out into a double bottom. Supply is in a draw
down right now as might be expected when gas production is diminished in the middle of winter
while demand is rising. The Economics 101 expectation is rising prices on the futures market.
The chart shows a Fibonacci retracement would take price from its current level to about 29
or about 20% upside if that level holds and more if prices can make a stronger more or
if short positions or puts are forced to closed causing some buying pressure synergy.
The RSI indicator confirms the reversal at the double bottom and adds a bit of insurance
to the risk. Accordingly, I am expecting a 20% in the next 2-3 weeks. Target for 2/3 of
the position is 29 while the other 1/3 ( short squeeze scenario) to run to a target of 33
which is the neckline of the H & S pattern. Taking a look at OTM call options striking
$ 30-31 range. Additionally, I will watch the AI algo indicator for a Sell Signal and reassess the
position at that time given its 90% accuracy at this given time frame as evidenced by
a 2000 candle backtest ( or about 500 hours or 82 trading days). Energy may not be the hottest
sector right now but nor is it the coldest.
XNGUSD Short BiasXNGUSD on the 30-minute chart is accompanied by drawn-in trendlines, a Fibonacci
retracement as well as an anchored VWAP and volume profile. An RSI indicator is also added.
Price hit a recent high of 2.81 on May 19th and then trended down to 2.11. While a 50%
retracement might have been expected ( to 2.46) price only rose to 2.42. I consider this as
showing selling pressure from sellers to be slightly exceeding buying pressure. Short bias
for XNGUSD is confirmed since it is trading below the POC line of the long-term volume profile
and below the anchored mean WVAP which are acting as confluent resistance. The RSI topped
out at 60 during the retracement and has fallen below 50.
Overall, the chart supports a short XNGUSD trade with a stop loss just above VWAP / POC
and the target the trendline of support ( green line ) making for a Reward: Risk of
about 2:1 Any leveraged forex trade would amplify both potential loss and potential
profit.
XNGUSD- Spot Natural Gas Ascending WedgeAs shown on the 15 minute chart XNGUSD is in an ascending wedge pattern which is generally
considered bearish. In the past day, price has fallen slightly below the support trendline.
Is this a fake-out or a breakdown? The RSI had turned decidedly weak while the MACD lines
crossed above the histogram and are now under the horizontal zero line. These both suggest
a breakdown falling out of the pattern. Price was well above the high volume area of the
profile where there is little trading to support a further price rise. Overall, XNGUSD may have
went up too far and too quickly. I expect a full reversal as suggested by the mass index indicator
so I will short-sell this forex pair. with moderate leverage. The stop loss will be inside the
pattern just above the support trendline while the target is 2.35 about the value where price
started its previous uptrend.
BOIL vs KOLD Natural Gas Leveraged ETFs : LONG KOLDThe KOLD / Boil Ratio is shown here on a daily char. A rising ratio level indicates KOLD is rising
and BOIL is falling making the ratio rather extreme If KOLD rises 10% in a week and so BOIL falls,
in a hypothetical say they start out 140 and 20 respectively and KOLD goes to 154 while KOLD falls to 18 the ratio moves from 7 to 154/18 = 8.55 the ratio moves 22% for the week.
What does this all mean ?
With triple leveraging and management fees taken out long leveraged ETF shares may experience time decay on a daily basis. Share values are net after expenses.
From the chart's visible the only time the ratio fell and BOIL was the long play was
September 25,'23 to November 15, '23 and December 14, '23 to January 14, '24.
In 2023 prior to late September KOLD was always the long play, In 2024, after January 15
and to the present KOLD is the long play and the ratio is accelerating and getting more
volatile as it is potentially getting over-extended. Combined volume in the range of 20 M /day
is 2X showing great interest by market participants.
I conclude especially since natural gas spot prices are falling as recession fears are not yet in the past, that KOLD is the leveraged gas futures ETF to take long. This trader considers the
management fees as a cost of business. The futures are stratified and leveraged obivously
the cost brings value.
I will take shares of KOLD and take a call or two along the way for an expiration in the fall
whenever price rises about an even $5.00 amount to be assured of the lowest price.
I will follow KOLD on a 60-90 minute chart looking for topping wicks or a price fall under
the EMA 7 as a sign that it should be on watch for a market top. Frankly, I do not expect to see it. This is because on the 2-time frame RSI indicator ( by Chris Moody) with the 4H in green
and the 1W in red, both lines are rising and in a healthy 75 +/- range. If they top out and fall, then I again think I might be seeing bullish divergence and put the trade on watch.
For those who trade VWAP bands and volume profile, the ratio has been in an obvious breakout since early November with a pullback in mid-December after the ratio rose outside the third upper VWAP band. Using the VWAP bands and the volume profile will make any fades very obvious most especially on lower time frames.
BOIL reverses from a quick downtrend LONGBOIL on may 9th went into hard resistance in the highest VWAP line area, the Hull moving
averages did a death cross and it fell 12% into the support of the first upper standard
deviation line where it double bottomed with a reversal. The ZL MACD shows lines and
trends that are confirmatory. As a result, I have closed my short trade from my prior
idea and revested the capital gained into a long position of stock and calls. If you
are interested in knowing targets or stop losses, please leave a comment.