Natural Gas Prices Recover from 3.5-year LowsNatural Gas Prices Recover from 3.5-year Lows
As the chart shows, the price of XNG fell below 2.040 on January 31 for the first time since August 2020. This was facilitated by:
→ seasonal trend, because towards the end of winter the price of natural gas tends to fall;
→ weather data. Temperatures could remain above average and snowfall amounts will decrease across North America, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center and AccuWeather.
However, the chart shows signs of increased demand:
→ the RSI indicator forms divergence;
→ the bears were unable to reach the lower boundary (shown on the chart) of the downward channel.
Signs of increased demand could come from short covering after the XNG price fell by more than 25% this year, as well as sentiment ahead of the release of news on gas reserves (today at 18:30 GMT+3).
It is possible that the news release will provoke even greater demand activity, and the XNG price will reach the median line of the shown channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Xngusd
UNG rising in the cold of winterAS shown on a 4H chart, UNG which tracks natural gas futures has been rising now for three
weeks with the typical demand of the winter months and the cold weather impacting new
supplies while Russia's war continues. Volumes are relatively high while dual TF ( 4H and
1Week) crossed the 50 line on December 28. Price has now crossed over the Fib -.5 line
of the downtrend from October and has that line and the anchored intermediate term
VWAP for support and the setting of a stop loss ( strength in confluence)
I see this as a setup for a long swing trade of UNG or BOIL or XNGUSD on forex or any of the gas
companies ( LNG) to trade commodities while the equity markets get sorted out.
Natural Gas Prices Recover from 6-month LowsSince November 1, the price of natural gas has fallen by more than 30%. This was facilitated by:
→ relatively mild weather at the beginning of the winter period;
→ record volumes of liquefied gas production, as reported by Reuters. Analysts estimate there is currently about 7.8% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year.
On December 13, the price of natural gas dropped below 2.20 for the first time since the beginning of June. This level may provide support given how price has interacted with it throughout 2023.
At the same time, the graph shows that the price of natural gas:
→ is within a downward trend (shown in red);
→ On December 11, a surge in demand was noticed on the market (shown by the arrow) — it is possible that it was caused by a low price and the expectation that in the future the price of gas could rise until the end of winter;
→ the median line still offers resistance;
→ RSI forms divergence.
Thus, there are reasons to believe that the level of 2.20 may be able to stop the downward trend. And even to provide support for a rebound if the weather becomes colder and causes an increase in gas consumption.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Natural Gas Prices Fall to More than 2-month LowsYesterday, XNG/USD quotes dropped below the 2,900 level for the first time since mid-September. This was helped by the fact that the NatGasWeather weather forecasting model late last week showed a cooling trend in December in the US, but this was replaced by warming over the weekend.
According to analyst forecasts from Analysts Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., published on Monday:
→ natural gas reserves at the end of winter could be 2 trillion cubic feet (previously forecast 1.9 trillion);
→ price could be USD 2.75 (previous forecast was USD 3 or less).
Meanwhile, the US Natural Gas price chart shows that:
→ the price of natural gas is near the lower border of the channel (shown in blue), which can provide support;
→ the MACD indicator indicates divergence (a sign of weakening selling pressure).
Thus, although the market has been in a bearish trend since the beginning of November (shown in red), the chart shows bullish signs — it is possible that the price in the short term may rise to the upper limit of the red channel. The likelihood of this scenario will increase if the weather forecasting model indicates a cold snap.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Natural Gas - Elliott Wave CountNatural Gas - Elliott Wave Count
this is an update to the previous view.
Yesterday, the market completed the 4th wave of its price movement cycle and has since entered the 5th wave. This represents a continuation of the current trend, and we can anticipate a positive recovery in the upward direction once the 5th wave is completed. This signals a potential opportunity for investors to consider taking advantage of the market's recovery trend.
In light of this, we recommend refraining from taking short positions in a bull market. Instead, it would be prudent to wait for a reversal and take a long position.
Please note that this information is solely for educational purposes, and it is essential to exercise caution when trading.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS FOREXCOM:NATURALGASCFD MCX:NATURALGAS1! CITYINDEX:NATURALGASCFD PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS SKILLING:NATGAS
Natural Gas - Elliott Wave Count UpdateNatural Gas - Elliott Wave Count
this is an update to the previous view.
Today, the market reached a new low after a few consecutive days of decline. The current reversal appears to be the start of wave C of 4. However, it is best not to rush into buying at this moment. We can anticipate another low after the completion of wave 4, which will be an excellent opportunity to buy for a significant gain.
Please note that this information is solely for educational purposes, and it is essential to exercise caution when trading.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS MCX:NATURALGAS1! FOREXCOM:NATURALGASCFD PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS CITYINDEX:NATURALGASCFD MOEX:NG1! NYMEX:NG1! VANTAGE:NG
Natural Gas Price Reaches 8-month HighAs the chart shows, yesterday, the price of gas rose above USD 3.60 for the first time since January of this year.
It can be assumed that events in Israel contributed to the price increase, since the Middle East is an important supplier of gas.
However, note that the bullish momentum started much earlier — gas prices have risen approximately 20% since the October 3 low. This confirms our assumptions about the bullish trend, which we published in the review on August 25th.
Perhaps the price of gas is influenced by seasonal factors and fears that weather conditions in the coming winter will be difficult.
Should we count on the continuation of the bullish trend?
If forecasters’ predictions worsen and the conflict in the Middle East flares up, this will certainly increase the likelihood of further price increases.
But in the short term, there are prerequisites for the formation of a rollback, since:
→ RSI indicates severe overbought;
→ the price has reached the upper limit of the parallel channel;
→ the tapering candles of the last days and the beginning of Tuesday demonstrate the presence of sellers — it is permissible to assume that buyers are taking profits.
Please note that on Thursday at 17:30 GMT+3, gas reserves data will be published — this may affect the current balance of supply and demand.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NATGAS LONG TERM TRADE BUYINGHello Traders
In This Chart NATGAS HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today NATGAS analysis 👆
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NATGAS LONG TERM TRADEBUYINGHello Traders
In This Chart NATGAS HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
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BOIL ( 3x Nat Gas ETF) Reverses to UpsideOn shown on the 15 minute chart with a VWAP band/line setup anchored to the July 1st
pivot high. BOIL is in a VWAP breakout since bottoming mid-day July 17th. Confirming
the reversal are the Price Volume Trend Oscillator printing a green histogram and an
upgoing signal line as well as the zero-lag MACD with upgoing parallel lines crossing
the zero-horizontal line. Price has crossed over the mean VWAP. On the dual time frame
RSI indicator both the lower and higher RS lines ( blue and black) are above the 50 level
and the lower time frame is higher highlighting bullish momentum.
I will take a long trade targeting based on the VWAP lines first $65 and then $68. I will open
equal amounts of call options striking the targets with expirations on July 28th. I seek a
100% ROI in the next 6-8 trading days. On an intraday basis, I may enter a low DTE call option
at the low of day ( typically mid-morning) and exit at the high of day the same or next day.
XNGUSD BUY Long Trade Active, Time to Buy NAT-GASMy Trade Setup
Buy on current price (2.6000)
Take Profit Targets
Target 1: 3.5
Target 2: 5.0
Target 3: 6.0
Greetings, fellow traders!
I would like to share a long trade setup on NAT-Gas that has the potential for high profitability, an opportunity not to be overlooked. NAT-GAS prices have been steadily declining over the past nine months, indicating a strong bearish trend. However, it appears that this downward trend is coming to an end, and we can expect prices to rise in the months of July, August, and September. Both technical analysis and fundamental factors support a long buy setup for NAT-Gas.
Technical Analysis:
From a technical perspective, XNGUSD has found support in the 2.1000 area, leading to a rebound that is reinforcing the bullish momentum in prices. Indicators in the monthly timeframe have become highly oversold, further supporting a bullish price action. Additionally, NAT-Gas prices are currently trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting a change in trend from downward to upward. The first major hurdle to overcome is the resistance area of 3-3.5. If the price manages to stay above 3.5 and a weekly candle closes above that level, it will indicate further upward movement, potentially driving prices towards the psychological mark of 5.00.
Fundamental Analysis:
In terms of fundamental analysis, there are several factors at play. NAT-Gas inventories are expected to decrease by 4 BCF, a figure larger than the five-year average. Moreover, maintenance activities at key LNG plants have resulted in a 10% decrease in US LNG exports for the month of June. European gas demand has also experienced a decline in the final week of June due to scheduled maintenance at plants. However, analysts anticipate an increase in LNG exports this quarter as maintenance activities conclude. The shift in gas supply from Russia to the United States in Europe is expected to stimulate prices, leading to the opening of many long trades. Additionally, the 50-day EMA indicates growing support, and traders are expected to become more active this month in order to secure substantial profits within a short period of time.
The increase in gas flow to LNG export plants, coupled with a positive demand outlook, is boosting NAT-GAS prices. In Texas, power usage has remained high and even reached record levels during the recent heatwave, consequently driving up gas consumption for electricity generation. The forecast predicts hot weather in the southern, western, and eastern parts of the US from 3-9 July. As temperatures rise, analysts anticipate an increase in US gas demand, including exports. In June, US exports to Mexico saw an average increase of 6.6 Bcf/d. All these factors combined contribute to the bullish price momentum of NAT-Gas.
Best wishes, and may you be rewarded with significant profits!
BOIL- Go Long SetupBOIL has had a busy month with the resurgence of natural gas prices and the reverse
split six trading days ago. I analyze it as having further upside. On the 30-minute chart
I have added two anchored VWAPs to the left on separate pivot points. This serves
to make out dynamic support and resistance. Price has crossed over the mean VWAP zone
which is between the heavy black lines. In confluence with that, it has crossed over the
POC line of the volume profile represents the price point with the highest total trading volume
over the visible time interval. Above price are the two targets being one and two standard
deviations above the mean aVWAP. The volume indicator shows increasing relative volume
overall as a sign of accumulation which generally results in price appreciation from
the demand trend. I will set the stop loss at $.10 below the POC line and take a long
position. One third of the position will come off upon each target advancing the stop loss to
above the entry and making the trade risk-free. Another third with TP2 and finally the
The remaining third will run on a trailing stop so I do not spend time micromanaging a smaller
position. I believe that my overall bullish bias will be rewarded yet again over the near term.
NATURAL GAS ( XNGUSD ) Long Term Trading IdeaHello Traders
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NATURAL GAS ( XNGUSD ) Long Term Trading IdeaHello Traders
In This Chart XNGUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By World of Forex
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Can KOLD make it through the summer?KOLD is a leveraged inverse of natural gas futures contracts. Natural gas prices could see a rise
this summer as it is fuel for electric plants to make electricity to power air conditioning and
charge all the new electric cars. Hydroelectric and wind might be green put they contribute
little to the large power grid. NG is better than coal and diesel. So if a supply and demand
imbalnce develops what does Eco 101 say will happen to prices ? KOLD will go down and BOIL,
its inverse will go up as rising current prices will reflect in futures contracts in months ahead.
On the chart, KOLD is seen in an uptrend and the RSI has crossed over the 50 line while
price has crossed over the POC line of the profile ( mean price at which the most shares traded
over the given date range). Bullish momentum is slightly dominating with moving averages
diverging. A volume void above may result in a small jump along the way. Will the summer
heat drive up NG prices and make KOLD melt?
UNG- Buy at a BottomAs shown on the 4H chart, UNG has been trending down albeit with a triple top in April
and a head and shoulders in early May. It is presently at the bottom of the long term volume
profile and two standard deviations below the running mean anchored VWAP. This is
deep undervalued territory. On the MACD indicator, the K and D lines intersecting while under
the histogram which is positive portrays an early entry signal. I believe that it is inevitable
that UNG will have an uptrend in June as it did in April and May. The uptrends had a slope
of about 1.5-3% per day while underway. I will take a long trade in UNG and potentially BOIL
while leveraging XNGUSD on forex. For UNG, the targets are the POC line of the volume profile,
and mean VWAP , the final target is one standard deviation above VWAP while the stop loss
is three standard deviations below VWAP ( thin green line).
XNGUSD ( Natural gas ) Short Term Selling ideaHello Traders
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UNG retracement complete- to uptrend again.UNG as shown on the 15-minute chart had an untrend for a week culminated by the very steep
finish to the uptrend into resistance followed by a very rapid bounce down and retracement.
A standard 50% Fibonacci retracement is now complete. UNG appears to be bounding off
the POC line of the volume profile which coincides with the 0.5 Fib level.
UNG tracks the natural gas futures, especially the leading month. It appears now ready to
resume an uptrend. This is a directional bearing on the trend for any instrument based on
natural gas prices including XNGUSD on forex.
Can XNGUSD short squeeze?XNGUSD on the weekly chart showing two years of price action with weekly candles
shows the rise in 2021 into spring 2022 then printing a head and shoulders pattern
and the reversal to deep into the support/demand zone. The volume profile shows
the majority of the trading during this time period to have been between $3.75 and
$ 8.50. It would seem likely that there are a sizeable amount of short sellers holding
positions with unrealized profits of 50% to as much as 300%. This past week had the
best buying volume in six months and provides bulls with optimism
If natural gas can gain some momentum and put in green candles with a decent price range for
a couple of weeks in a row, the combination of new buyers with new interest and short sellers
liquidating and buying to cover their unrealized gains might ignite a bit of a rally for natural
gas. I will keep natural gas on watch. I will keep in mind that a breakout without a
corresponding volume the response could be a fakeout. A stop loss would be $1.95 below the
support zone while the final target would be $4.75 below the POC line. Interval take profits
would be 10% of the forex lots every time the price rises by $0.50 for risk management and
good profit taking while underway.
XNGUSD Bull Pennant Pattern Short then LongXNG has had a big week with a big bullish momentum move into a symmetrical triangle
and then a breakout into a bull flag pattern to finish out the trading week. A Bollinger Band
squeeze as the symmetrical triangle was underway preceded the breakout. PRice crossed the
POC line of the volume profile where trading volume , liquidity and volatility all are the
highest Equities and equity funds like BOIL, KOLD, UNG, UNL, LNG had corresponding moves.
The Luxalgo ECHO indicator, a predictive AI tool, suggests that from here XNGUSD will retrace
5% or so perhaps targeting the mid/basis line of the Bollinger Bands and then resume its
upward trend. the retracement would be 50% of the uptrend which started the morning of
5/18 which was a 10% move. The indicator is predicting the uptrend resumption for
5/22. By extension, equity instruments that mirror natural gas prices presumably will have
similar moves. I conclude that my profits achieved in BOIL options after the big move
should be prtially taken off the table to buy some KOLD calls or BOIL puts instead to hedge
for the prediction of the algorithm tool.
An Important Bullish Breakout in the Natural Gas MarketThe price of natural gas in USD rose sharply on Thursday after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a slightly smaller-than-expected weekly increase in domestic natural gas inventories.
At the same time, an important breakdown of the contracting triangle pattern formed by 2 lines (shown in blue) has formed on the XNG/USD natural gas chart.
Presumably, this triangle delineates a market stage in which large players could accumulate long positions at low prices after the downtrend that has been in place in the natural gas market since the beginning of 2023.
On Friday morning, the bulls are able to keep the progress made, keeping the price of XNG above the former resistance at 2.575, which can now serve as support.
This breakdown may become a stage in the development of an important bullish trend. We previously reported that according to EIA forecasts, the average price of natural gas in 2023 could exceed USD 4.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.